Myanmar’s military regime is preparing for a nominal transfer of power at the end of July—but analysts say real control will remain firmly in the hands of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, despite promises of democratic elections later this year.

 

The regime’s State Administration Council (SAC), which seized power in a 2021 coup, is set to hand authority to the military-dominated National Defence and Security Council (NDSC) when the current state of emergency expires on 31 July. Under the 2008 military-drafted constitution, this move is meant to pave the way for elections, now scheduled for December and January.

 

In theory, the NDSC will assume temporary control of the state, with responsibilities including election oversight and the appointment of key bodies such as the Union Election Commission. But in practice, little is expected to change.

 

Min Aung Hlaing remains the head of both the SAC and the NDSC—and last year, he assumed the title of acting president, effectively absorbing all branches of state power. Critics argue this upcoming “handover” is largely symbolic, designed to meet constitutional obligations while maintaining a firm grip on the reins.

 

In early 2025, the general reshuffled his inner circle, promoting loyal junior officers and sidelining rivals—mirroring past succession manoeuvres by previous junta boss Than Shwe. Analysts see this as part of a long-term plan to retain control, even if Min Aung Hlaing eventually withdraws from public view.

 

Despite these moves, the junta faces intensifying resistance on the ground. Anti-regime forces now control large swathes of territory, and pressure is mounting from both within and abroad. Yet the regime is pressing ahead with its electoral roadmap, urging international actors to support what it calls a “sovereign process”.

 

The vote itself, however, has drawn condemnation. Opposition groups such as the National Unity Government have labelled it a sham, pointing out that major parties—including the NLD and SNLD—are barred from participating.

 

Only 21 parties have so far been approved to contest, with pro-junta organisations topping the list. The vote will likely be held only in select areas like Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyitaw, raising further doubts over its legitimacy.

 

Few expect the result to be anything other than a rubber stamp for Min Aung Hlaing to declare himself president—consolidating military rule under the guise of constitutional transition.

 

-2025-07-18

On 7/18/2025 at 8:47 AM, geovalin said:

a rubber stamp for Min Aung Hlaing