Just now, Hawaiian said:

According to Trump tariff revenues will offset the tax cut for the rich.  Not if imports fall along with the corresponding tariff income.  

I updated my post to include the fact that if companies decide to eat the tariff instead of passing on to consumers, that will affect their bottom lines and negatively affect the market.  Either way, it's kinda ugly. 

 

 

2 hours ago, save the frogs said:

 

So let me get this straight.

You are Karnac The Great? Nostradamus?

You people are all projecting into the future. 

What doom and gloom predictions have you people made in the past that have come to pass?

Give me one example. I need the year you made the prediction and the year it came to pass. 

 

 

He knows nothing, but the point is he and many like him want Trump (and America) to fail, just so he/they can claim a single, successfully predicted outcome. They are willing doom and gloom from their keyboards in SE Asia.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

According to Trump tariff revenues will offset the tax cut for the rich.  Not if imports fall along with the corresponding tariff income.  

 

 

But he will argue that the gap in falling imports will then be filled by US production......ignoring the time delay, increased prices as wages rocket, inflation climbs, tariff revenue falls.......!!!

22 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

I guess you haven't seen all the fruit and vegetables left rotting in the fields because there aren't enough migrant laborers to pick them?
 

Businesses (and Countries) rely on future planning to stay viable.
With Trump's on-again/off-again tariff announcements, businesses (and entire countries) are unable to plan for their futures. Businesses (and countries) that can't make long-range economic plans will most likely fail.

Whatever the merits of the case, what you're referring to is the international trade part of the equation. What I'm referring to is the effect of eliminating illegal workers from the job pool.

11 hours ago, WayWokeWhiteGuy said:

tRump’s MAGA fascist cult does not care how many lies he tells.

217 posts in 6 years and now 11 in 24 hours, who rattled your cage.

I'll have to check how many times you've used the words racist and fascist.

4 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

Oh dear....that is exactly why the downgrade occurred.....

 

These revisions are part of BLS’s annual benchmarking process, which uses more complete data from unemployment insurance records to correct earlier estimates based on surveys.

 

Sorry, but the economists polled by the LEG all predicted different numbers than those McEntarfer produced. If you actually believe that in all of the United States only 14,000 jobs were created in June, I think you'll believe anything.

 

"The BLS reported on Friday that 74,000 jobs were added in July, well below the 110,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG. The report also revised job growth in May and June downward. May's gains were pared back by 125,000 to just 19,000 jobs created, while the June figures were revised down by 133,000 to just 14,000 jobs added that month"

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-calls-fired-bls-commissioners-job-numbers-biggest-miscalculations-over-50-years

 

McEntarfer's revisions were obviously false, and politically motivated. It was absolutely crucial to remove her and to restore accuracy to the date of the BLS. The economy depends on it.

5 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

According to Trump tariff revenues will offset the tax cut for the rich.  Not if imports fall along with the corresponding tariff income.  

Tariffic "revenues" come from American biz and American consumers so if they offset the tax cut for rich means the middle to poor Americans paid for the rich tax cuts.  Econ 101.

 

A Potus who thinks he can lower drug prices 1000 to 1500% demonstrates that the Potus has less than a 3rd grade understanding of basic math yet he is somehow a genius in tariffs which are exceedingly complicated.

 

The numbers that are starting to come out now would indicate that the "genius" has no clue and refuses to accept the detailed studies of almost every serious economist in the usa that have predicted exactly what we are seeing now with falling job numbers and inflation will soon head up up and away.  But no worries, just fire the messenger for reporting the numbers and replace with some boot licker ex fox news blonde bimbo and she will give him the numbers he wants...why i bet that unemployment will drop by at least 1000%.  Pathetic.

Just have a look at the brilliant job trump did with aluminum and copper!

Totally amazing!

If that is not a winning strategy than i don't know what is!

 

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Sorry, but the economists polled by the LEG all predicted different numbers than those McEntarfer produced. If you actually believe that in all of the United States only 14,000 jobs were created in June, I think you'll believe anything.

 

"The BLS reported on Friday that 74,000 jobs were added in July, well below the 110,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG. The report also revised job growth in May and June downward. May's gains were pared back by 125,000 to just 19,000 jobs created, while the June figures were revised down by 133,000 to just 14,000 jobs added that month"

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-calls-fired-bls-commissioners-job-numbers-biggest-miscalculations-over-50-years

 

McEntarfer's revisions were obviously false, and politically motivated. It was absolutely crucial to remove her and to restore accuracy to the date of the BLS. The economy depends on it.

 

 

Economists forecasts are based on trends and expectations.

 

BLS measures actual reported employment from surveys........then revised as 'real' data comes in.

 

In volatile conditions (like post-tariff uncertainty or immigration shifts), forecasts can miss turning points — especially if structural changes are underway.

 

If you think a career statistician sat at her desk with the survey data and thought...."I know I'm going fiddle these figures to make Trump look bad"......you are away with the fairies.

“The president wants his own people there, so that when we see the numbers, they’re more transparent and more reliable,” Mr. Hassett told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” explaining at one point that the president sought to ensure jobs numbers could be “trusted.”

 

Barron?

 

5 hours ago, WayWokeWhiteGuy said:

And at least one of tRump’s maga fascist morons. 
 

 

Sure, that's a good, rational argument.

4 minutes ago, jvs said:

Just have a look at the brilliant job trump did with aluminum and copper!

Totally amazing!

If that is not a winning strategy than i don't know what is!

 

 

Auto manufacturers, electronics firms, and energy companies face higher input costs whether from US suppliers, facing increased demands, or increased tariffs raising costs.

 

“We have to pass the increase to the customers… Be prepared.” — Charles Bareijsza, Metal Associates

 

 

Add to the fact that...the U.S. lacks sufficient smelting and refining capacity.....prices will soon rocket

21 minutes ago, annotator said:

Whatever the merits of the case, what you're referring to is the international trade part of the equation. What I'm referring to is the effect of eliminating illegal workers from the job pool.

No.. what I’m referring to is people no longer able to buy fruit and vegetables at realistic prices. 
I don’t give a damn about numbers or labels. I care about people’s ability to have decent housing and affordable food and medicines. 

8 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

No.. what I’m referring to is people no longer able to buy fruit and vegetables at realistic prices. 
I don’t give a damn about numbers or labels. I care about people’s ability to have decent housing and affordable food and medicines. 

So, if that means paying workers <deleted> wages and and providing substandard working conditions, that's OK with you?

29 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

 

But he will argue that the gap in falling imports will then be filled by US production......ignoring the time delay, increased prices as wages rocket, inflation climbs, tariff revenue falls.......!!!

Exactly.  

12 minutes ago, annotator said:

So, if that means paying workers sh*t wages and and providing substandard working conditions, that's OK with you?

Please explain how you came to that conclusion.

Just now, Hawaiian said:

Please explain how you came to that conclusion.

It seems self-evident to me. If you have to pay workers higher wages, then the cost of the product goes up. 

3 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

Economists forecasts are based on trends and expectations.

 

BLS measures actual reported employment from surveys........then revised as 'real' data comes in.

 

No.

 

You are wrong.  Actually, the BLS also uses projections, just like economists do. From the BLS' own website:

 

"The EP program estimates specific values for projected employment levels and growth rates. However, this precision in the data does not account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market."

 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm

 

The BLS itself is prone to miss the mark, and can no more give accurate figures than a KFC employee can get your order right. Nevertheless, the recent figures provided by McEntarfer are so incredulous and obviously false, that clearly she had to go. 

 

22 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

If you think a career statistician sat at her desk with the survey data and thought...."I know I'm going fiddle these figures to make Trump look bad"......you are away with the fairies.

 

If you think a Biden apopintee and career academic is beyond providing false information to make the hated Donald Trump look bad, clearly, you're living in an alternate reality. The attempts to discredit Trump have been almost ludicrous in their magnitude, ranging from Russian golden showers to now 14000 new jobs in June.

 

In any event McEntarfer showed a PATTERN of suspect numbers, funnily enough all her "revisions" went upward when Kamala Harris and Biden were in the race, but now they go ludicrously down.

 

It's not just her being suspect and most likely manipulating the figures. She's also shown incompetence in other areas:

 

"McEntarfer’s term was further marred by technical mishaps and data protocol breaches. In August 2024, a technical glitch delayed release of the monthly jobs revisions. Owing to internal procedural failures, some financial firms obtained the data before it was publicly posted—contravening BLS policies intended to ensure equitable release."

 

In March 2024, it was reported that a BLS economist had allegedly shared nonpublic economic data with Wall Street firms, and in May and August, other economic indicators were released prematurely by mistake.

 

Congressional oversight escalated in late 2024. Senate Republicans highlighted “continued failures” in data accuracy in a November 15 letter, citing the benchmark revisions as evidence of systemic issues. The House Committee on Education and the Workforce issued multiple oversight inquiries between August and October, demanding explanations for significant downward revisions and alleging misuse of publicly disseminated data.

 

the pattern of overstatements and procedural lapses compromised the reliability of labor statistics, raising concern about the BLS’s influence in public policy and monetary policy decisions. Observers warned that such repeated misreporting could erode public confidence in a key institution relied upon by policymakers and businesses alike.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erika_McEntarfer 

 

McEntarfer was incompetent, if she was not falisfying figures, which she probably was, and she had to go. Trust was being eroded in the figures the BLS provides.

5 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

No.

 

You are wrong.  Actually, the BLS also uses projections, just like economists do. From the BLS' own website:

 

"The EP program estimates specific values for projected employment levels and growth rates. However, this precision in the data does not account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market."

 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm

 

The BLS itself is prone to miss the mark, and can no more give accurate figures than a KFC employee can get your order right. Nevertheless, the recent figures provided by McEntarfer are so incredulous and obviously false, that clearly she had to go. 

 

 

If you think a Biden apopintee and career academic is beyond providing false information to make the hated Donald Trump look bad, clearly, you're living in an alternate reality. The attempts to discredit Trump have been almost ludicrous in their magnitude, ranging from Russian golden showers to now 14000 new jobs in June.

 

In any event McEntarfer showed a PATTERN of suspect numbers, funnily enough all her "revisions" went upward when Kamala Harris and Biden were in the race, but now they go ludicrously down.

 

It's not just her being suspect and most likely manipulating the figures. She's also shown incompetence in other areas:

 

"McEntarfer’s term was further marred by technical mishaps and data protocol breaches. In August 2024, a technical glitch delayed release of the monthly jobs revisions. Owing to internal procedural failures, some financial firms obtained the data before it was publicly posted—contravening BLS policies intended to ensure equitable release."

 

In March 2024, it was reported that a BLS economist had allegedly shared nonpublic economic data with Wall Street firms, and in May and August, other economic indicators were released prematurely by mistake.

 

Congressional oversight escalated in late 2024. Senate Republicans highlighted “continued failures” in data accuracy in a November 15 letter, citing the benchmark revisions as evidence of systemic issues. The House Committee on Education and the Workforce issued multiple oversight inquiries between August and October, demanding explanations for significant downward revisions and alleging misuse of publicly disseminated data.

 

the pattern of overstatements and procedural lapses compromised the reliability of labor statistics, raising concern about the BLS’s influence in public policy and monetary policy decisions. Observers warned that such repeated misreporting could erode public confidence in a key institution relied upon by policymakers and businesses alike.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erika_McEntarfer 

 

McEntarfer was incompetent, if she was not falisfying figures, which she probably was, and she had to go. Trust was being eroded in the figures the BLS provides.

CBA

27 minutes ago, annotator said:

So, if that means paying workers sh*t wages and and providing substandard working conditions, that's OK with you?

Sorry, but if you need to put words in my mouth, you’ve already lost the debate. 

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

So far the "suitably qualified people" have been wrong. Core inflation still low and the stock market at record highs. 

The inflationary and depressive effects of tariffs will take some months to work their way into the statistics - but of course that won't matter as the little matter of  unfavourable statistics has been "sorted"!

1 minute ago, JAG said:

The inflationary and depressive effects of tariffs will take some months to work their way into the statistics - but of course that won't matter as the little matter of  unfavourable statistics has been "sorted"!

 

 

Could they take so long that they can't be pinned on Biden?.....that's the critical aspect to it all....555

I think it's still too early for the average American to realise what it means to have Trump as president.

Until they feel it in their pockets.

This time is not far.

6 minutes ago, FolkGuitar said:

Sorry, but if you need to put words in my mouth, you’ve already lost the debate. 

You asked my why prices would go up. i gave you an answer. How is that putting words in your mouth? Are you so benighted as think that higher input costs such as higher wages  don't ultimately result in higher prices?

2 hours ago, annotator said:

There's a real inconsistency on both the left and right. Yes, there will be some inflation due to President Trump's programs. So people on the right shouldn't deny that. But is that a bad thing? As President Trump's tariffs kick in and illegal immigrants are expelled, wages for low income workers should rise faster than inflation. And isn't that a good thing? It seems that the lefties think otherwise.

It's a good thing if it happens. The probability of that is approaching zero.

 

The tax cuts for the rich are just a reiteration of trickle-down economics, a phrase coined by Will Rogers to mock Herbert Hoover's policies. It was given respectability by Ronald Reagan.

 

Lefties know that phrase would be more accurately described as p!ss-down economics.

 

Tariffs are a regressive tax. That means they hit the poor far worse than the rich.

 

Illegal immigrants pick the crops of America. Their wages are half that of documented workers, who are earning less than the average American.

 

Once you have got rid of all of them, what do you think that will do to food prices?

3 hours ago, Wingate said:

 

 

Look at what the White House released yesterday, no doubt partly in reaction to the 90% revision in the May-June jobs numbers, which show an economy in decline. They announced Trump shot a gross score of 69 on the golf course, and given his ludicrously-claimed handicap of 2, that would mean he shot a 71. The statement the WH issued was:

 

"Winning on and off the golf course"

 

That statement was also likely prompted by another thing that happened in Scotland, in addition to his brain-addled presser. The widely seen video of his caddy tossing a ball backwards onto the short grass after Trump quite clearly shot into the deep rough shows his moniker "Commander-in-Cheat" is richly deserved.

 

I really don't understand golf, have never so much as touched a golf bat, but even I understand having your caddy place balls like that is cheating!

 

Mind, when I look at some of the releases from the White House I cannot help thinking that just maybe they have someone on their staff who enjoys taking the piss?

Just now, Lacessit said:

It's a good thing if it happens. The probability of that is approaching zero.

 

The tax cuts for the rich are just a reiteration of trickle-down economics, a phrase coined by Will Rogers to mock Herbert Hoover's policies. It was given respectability by Ronald Reagan.

 

Lefties know that phrase would be more accurately described as p!ss-down economics.

 

Tariffs are a regressive tax. That means they hit the poor far worse than the rich.

 

Illegal immigrants pick the crops of America. Their wages are half that of documented workers, who are earning less than the average American.

 

Once you have got rid of all of them, what do you think that will do to food prices?

Food prices will go up. Do you have a problem with agricultural workers being paid decent wages? 

5 minutes ago, annotator said:

You asked my why prices would go up. i gave you an answer. How is that putting words in your mouth? Are you so benighted as think that higher input costs such as higher wages  don't ultimately result in higher prices?

… and yet you do it again. 
Sorry, I won’t bother with you any longer. You keep changing the playing field. 

Just now, FolkGuitar said:

… and yet you do it again. 
Sorry, I won’t bother with you any longer. You keep changing the playing field. 

The fact is, I got you cornered. I have changed nothing. I keep on repeating that if you raise the cost of producing something, then the price will rise. This is basic elementary economics. Anyway, keep running away.

 

 

Just now, annotator said:

Food prices will go up. Do you have a problem with agricultural workers being paid decent wages? 

IIRC correctly you were arguing worker wages would outpace inflation.

 

Imported beef tariff 10%.

 

Imported copper and steel up, tariff 50%.

 

Imported pharmaceuticals up, tariff 200%.

 

Countries import goods and services for a reason. They can't make enough of their own.

 

Are you one of those naive souls that believes lost manufacturing and manpower capacity can be replaced overnight?