3 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

I didn't see your post before I posted mine. At any rate, Nate Silver's aggregate is a better one because, for one thing, it takes recency into account, Real Clear simply averages all the polls within a cutoff date. So that means polls taken 2 weeks ago count just as much as those taken today. Also Silver's aggregate acounts for the past biases of the pollsters, the size of the samples etc.. 

What does the left's best loved pollster and political pundit Alan Lictman have to say? Didnt hear his name mentioned for a few months😅

2 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Nate got the election wrong ĺol

False. In fact on the eve of the election he said he had a gut feeling that Trump would win.

1 hour ago, Stiddle Mump said:

Some are compromised and lie even more.

I don't think it's appropriate to bring up Trump's suppression of the Epstein files in this discussion.

1 hour ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

What does the left's best loved pollster and political pundit Alan Lictman have to say? Didnt hear his name mentioned for a few months😅

Please share with us your evidence that Alan Lichtman is the left's best loved pollster. Or to put it another way, stop making things up.

15 hours ago, candide said:

Gone up lately? In which alternate universe universe?

 

From the right leaning RealClear:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/09/11/trump-approval-rating-42-in-latest-survey/

10 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

False. In fact on the eve of the election he said he had a gut feeling that Trump would win.

He said it was 50/50

10 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

Please share with us your evidence that Alan Lichtman is the left's best loved pollster. Or to put it another way, stop making things up.

Alan lol

What a goose

7 hours ago, thesetat said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/09/11/trump-approval-rating-42-in-latest-survey/

You were right. My bad! He's only at -14 now in the latest poll! 😆

 

From your link:

Sept. 10

-14 net approval rating: On par with two other polls this week, Trump had a 42% approval rating in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 5-9, while 56% disapproved, representing a two-point increase from the groups’ August poll in his disapproval rating and a two-point uptick in his approval rating (the poll of 1,084 U.S. adults has a margin of error of 3).

3 hours ago, candide said:

You were right. My bad! He's only at -14 now in the latest poll! 😆

 

From your link:

Sept. 10

-14 net approval rating: On par with two other polls this week, Trump had a 42% approval rating in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 5-9, while 56% disapproved, representing a two-point increase from the groups’ August poll in his disapproval rating and a two-point uptick in his approval rating (the poll of 1,084 U.S. adults has a margin of error of 3).

i read somewhere else that Trump has gotten a 7% gain on support from white males.. but the link was an overall statistic.. 

12 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

He said it was 50/50

First you say he got it wrong. Now you're saying he said 50/50

Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine

In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it.
Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?”
So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.

https://archive.ph/bEslW#selection-653.0-665.107

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

First you say he got it wrong. Now you're saying he said 50/50

Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine

In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it.
Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?”
So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.

https://archive.ph/bEslW#selection-653.0-665.107

Gut lol

 

I picked it 6 months ahead by a margin

 

Nate is full of it

In your view are those the only ones that should count?  What's your point?

 

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Gut lol

 

I picked it 6 months ahead by a margin

 

Nate is full of it

And how did you predict the 2020 election? Oh I forgot. You're going to claim it was stolen. That Trump really won. So I suppose in your mind that means you're batting 100%.

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Gut lol

 

I picked it 6 months ahead by a margin

 

Nate is full of it

And what does "ahead by a margin" even mean? If someone comes out ahead of course there's going to be a margin.

3 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

In your view are those the only ones that should count?  What's your point?

 

And how did you predict the 2020 election? Oh I forgot. You're going to claim it was stolen. That Trump really won. So I suppose in your mind that means you're batting 100%.

I picked Biden.

2 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

And what does "ahead by a margin" even mean? If someone comes out ahead of course there's going to be a margin.

I picked 6 swing states. He won 7. So I was very close. 

 

Gut feel is not as good.

Just now, Harrisfan said:

I picked Biden.

So, you think he legitimately won the election and Trump and the rest of the MAGA universe (except you) were full of it?

Just now, Harrisfan said:

I picked 6 swing states. He won 7. So I was very close. 

 

Gut feel is not as good.

And of course anybody who's not a fool would believe an anonymous highly partisan source reporting on their post predictions.

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

So, you think he legitimately won the election and Trump and the rest of the MAGA universe (except you) were full of it?

I dont know. I just look at polls and eliminate the dodgy ones. 

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

And of course anybody who's not a fool would believe an anonymous highly partisan source reporting on their post predictions.

I posted it on here.

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

I posted it on here.

Now I got you. Your earliest post on aseannow.com is dated Feb 6, 2025. Care to share with us any more falsehoods? 

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

Now I got you. Your earliest post on aseannow.com is dated Feb 6, 2025. Care to share with us any more falsehoods? 

You have no idea what you are talking about.

4 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

You have no idea what you are talking about.

You obviously don't know it but on your page, there's a link shows all a member's post's going back 2 years. 

Here's  a link to your first posts.

https://aseannow.com/profile/379909-harrisfan/content/page/419/?all_activity=1

 

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

You obviously don't know it but on your page, there's a link shows all a member's post's going back 2 years. 

Here's  a link to your first posts.

https://aseannow.com/profile/379909-harrisfan/content/page/419/?all_activity=1

 

Means nothing. You must be new here.

Just now, Harrisfan said:

Means nothing. You must be new here.

Pathetic.

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

Pathetic.

Yes your posts are dude.

8 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

Now I got you. Your earliest post on aseannow.com is dated Feb 6, 2025. Care to share with us any more falsehoods? 

He's a longtime member, but with different IDs, such as Bignok or Susanlea. 

4 minutes ago, candide said:

He's a longtime member, but with different IDs, such as Bignok or Susanlea. 

I gotta give him credit. He lies in the face of facts just like Trump.

Just now, Alan Zweibel said:

I gotta give him credit. He lies in the face of facts just like Trump.

Name 1 lie.

I predicted every election since 2000 correctly. Not hard. More easy than most nations. US elections have more data.

16 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Name 1 lie.

Already did.