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Thailand's public debt has reached 12.12 trillion baht as of July 31, 2025, equating to 64.49% of GDP, according to the Public Debt Management Office. Although this remains under the legal limit of 70%, officials warn that slow economic growth and weaker revenues could push the debt ratio closer to the ceiling. Concerns escalate as the country’s fiscal health impacts both its economic planning and international credit ratings.

 

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand maintained a public debt-to-GDP ratio below 40%. However, pandemic-induced borrowing of 1.5 trillion baht and a contracting GDP propelled the ratio to over 60% for the first time. Although an increased ceiling of 70% was temporarily approved for emergency spending, officials are concerned that achieving a reduction below 60% may not be feasible, especially with domestic growth challenges and underwhelming tourism income.

 

Government sources have revised predictions, anticipating that the debt ceiling could be reached by 2027, earlier than an initial 2029 projection. This accelerated timeline could influence international credit ratings as analysts warn of a possible downgrade due to the rising debt trajectory and missed revenue targets. The previous government's decision to raise the debt-service-to-revenue ratio cap from 35% to 50% also contributes to heightened scrutiny.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Thailand against further increasing its public debt ceiling, citing reduced fiscal space post-pandemic. While the current ceiling of 70% stems from adjustments made during the crisis, the IMF insists on maintaining fiscal discipline to absorb future shocks. Recommendations include reinstating a 60% cap to preserve fiscal space, and adopting a risk-based fiscal framework.

 

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), urges fiscal reforms to build economic resilience. The NESDC suggests revenue restructuring, enhancing spending efficiency, and sustainable debt management to combat challenges such as global volatility and climate change. These measures aim to prevent fiscal constraints from undermining growth and credibility.

 

Key Takeaways

• Thailand's public debt is nearing the 70% GDP ceiling, raising economic concerns.
• The IMF urges maintaining fiscal discipline and recommends reverting to a 60% cap.
• NESDC calls for comprehensive fiscal reforms to strengthen economic resilience.

 

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-09-23

 

 

42 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Although this remains under the legal limit of 70%

 

Just watch how quickly that is increased when the day comes.

 

Interesting that in 2024 it was only 57% - quite a jump in a short space of time.  Still, a tiny debt compared with Japan, UK & the USA!

 

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/CAN/FRA/DEU/ITA/JPN/GBR/USA

The Thai economy is impervious to bad news and nothing will happen to the titanium and kevlar coated iron clad Baht 🤔

Get money to the poor and struggling. Sell off some of those reserves they are hoarding to keep the baht high. That would improve things for 95+ percent of the population, which is why the 5 percent will not allow it to happen.