Reform UK Set for Historic Majority, Tories Slashed to 7 MPs

A newly released “megapoll” suggests Reform UK could secure the largest Commons majority in modern history, while the Conservatives would be reduced to just seven MPs. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, conducted by PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus, forecasts Reform winning 445 seats and Labour shrinking to 73 if a general election were held tomorrow.

 

Despite Reform’s dominance in projections, tactical voting could derail their path to power. Over a third of Labour supporters indicated they would vote Conservative instead—to block a Reform surge. The poll also anticipates the Liberal Democrats winning 42 seats, the Scottish National Party 41, and Jeremy Corbyn’s “Your Party” capturing 13.

 

According to the results, Conservatives trail behind Greens (six seats) and Plaid Cymru (five). The projection places major figures in jeopardy: Labour cabinet ministers including Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, and Ed Miliband could be ousted. On the Tory side, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, and Iain Duncan Smith might lose their seats to Reform challengers.The electorate’s priorities also emerge clearly: 59 % rank economy and cost of living as most urgent, followed by immigration and border control (47 %), and the NHS (44 %).

 

Kevin Craig (PLMR) warned the poll shows “a remarkable fall from grace” for Conservatives and pressure on traditional party loyalties. Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus) added that anti-Reform tactical voting, along with fragmentation from Your Party, could cut into Reform’s dominance despite the lead.

 

If validated, the poll reveals a volatile political landscape: Reform is surging amid deep voter discontent, putting both Labour and Tory strongholds at serious risk.

 

Key Takeaways

• Reform UK faces a potential landslide — projected to win 445 seats, with Conservatives cut to just seven.

• Tactical voting and vote-splitting by Labour supporters or new parties may block Reform from translating its lead into power.

• Senior figures across parties are vulnerable, with several cabinet ministers and prominent MPs listed as at risk of losing their seats.

 

🔗 Original source  DAILY MAIL

 

 

 

 

Must check my calendar....is the general election next week or the week after? 

8 hours ago, Social Media said:

According to the results, Conservatives trail behind Greens (six seats) and Plaid Cymru (five).

 

So the Conservatives 7 seats is behind these two.  Someone needs to explain that conclusion to me.

8 hours ago, Social Media said:

A newly released “megapoll”

There is only one poll that matters.

And that is the election itself.

Starmer won 400 seats in the recent election.

Old Nigel about 5.

 

While it is  encouraging I wouldn’t believe this poll.

 

I call Bullocks.

14 hours ago, Social Media said:

 

 

Reform UK Set for Historic Majority, Tories Slashed to 7 MPs

A newly released “megapoll” suggests Reform UK could secure the largest Commons majority in modern history, while the Conservatives would be reduced to just seven MPs. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, conducted by PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus, forecasts Reform winning 445 seats and Labour shrinking to 73 if a general election were held tomorrow.

 

Despite Reform’s dominance in projections, tactical voting could derail their path to power. Over a third of Labour supporters indicated they would vote Conservative instead—to block a Reform surge. The poll also anticipates the Liberal Democrats winning 42 seats, the Scottish National Party 41, and Jeremy Corbyn’s “Your Party” capturing 13.

 

According to the results, Conservatives trail behind Greens (six seats) and Plaid Cymru (five). The projection places major figures in jeopardy: Labour cabinet ministers including Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, and Ed Miliband could be ousted. On the Tory side, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, and Iain Duncan Smith might lose their seats to Reform challengers.The electorate’s priorities also emerge clearly: 59 % rank economy and cost of living as most urgent, followed by immigration and border control (47 %), and the NHS (44 %).

 

Kevin Craig (PLMR) warned the poll shows “a remarkable fall from grace” for Conservatives and pressure on traditional party loyalties. Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus) added that anti-Reform tactical voting, along with fragmentation from Your Party, could cut into Reform’s dominance despite the lead.

 

If validated, the poll reveals a volatile political landscape: Reform is surging amid deep voter discontent, putting both Labour and Tory strongholds at serious risk.

 

Key Takeaways

• Reform UK faces a potential landslide — projected to win 445 seats, with Conservatives cut to just seven.

• Tactical voting and vote-splitting by Labour supporters or new parties may block Reform from translating its lead into power.

• Senior figures across parties are vulnerable, with several cabinet ministers and prominent MPs listed as at risk of losing their seats.

 

🔗 Original source  DAILY MAIL

 

 

 

 

There have been polls like this for various 3rd parties over the years – none came to much. The Reform Party haven't even got that number of candidates.

Sometimes it pays to look at the source – the Daily mail supported Hitler before WW2 and wanted to stop the Jews from immigrating to UK - some papers just never change their spots

Snowball's chance.

1 hour ago, blaze master said:

 

What a dumb comparison.

Yes  it should have said Trump supporters.

The polls don't tell the whole story, but they do give an idea of what could happen under certain circumstances.

 

Could Nigel Farage really win the next election? Here’s what the polls say

Reform’s lead is persistent but pollsters themselves point out that their models come with significant uncertainty

 

As YouGov said on the release of its latest MRP, small changes could make a big difference. “On our central projections, Reform UK are winning no fewer than 82 seats by less than five percentage points,” it stated. “If they were to in fact lose all such hypothetical contests, they would end up falling well short of a parliamentary majority, rather than being within touching distance.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/02/could-nigel-farage-really-win-the-next-election-heres-what-the-polls-say

Interesting take on the topic.

They Helped Topple Roe v. Wade. Now Their Sights Are Set on Britain.

An organization that fought abortion rights in the United States is now an unlikely conduit between MAGA Republicans and Britain’s ascendant Reform U.K. party.

 

The group, Alliance Defending Freedom, has taken its playbook to Britain and has rapidly established itself as a power broker between the country’s rising populist movement and President Trump’s Washington. They are catalyzing Reform U.K., Britain’s fastest growing political party that is seeking to upend the Conservative Party with an agenda centered on anti-establishment and anti-immigration sentiments. The A.D.F. is guiding its leadership even further to the right, on a conservative Christian agenda similar to the one that is sweeping through the United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/world/europe/uk-abortion-farage.html

Vote Reform, get the Tories.

 

 

31 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

Interesting take on the topic.

They Helped Topple Roe v. Wade. Now Their Sights Are Set on Britain.

An organization that fought abortion rights in the United States is now an unlikely conduit between MAGA Republicans and Britain’s ascendant Reform U.K. party.

 

The group, Alliance Defending Freedom, has taken its playbook to Britain and has rapidly established itself as a power broker between the country’s rising populist movement and President Trump’s Washington. They are catalyzing Reform U.K., Britain’s fastest growing political party that is seeking to upend the Conservative Party with an agenda centered on anti-establishment and anti-immigration sentiments. The A.D.F. is guiding its leadership even further to the right, on a conservative Christian agenda similar to the one that is sweeping through the United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/world/europe/uk-abortion-farage.html

Unlike the U.S., the UK isn’t stuffed with rightwing Christian zealots.

 

1 hour ago, gargamon said:

Yes  it should have said Trump supporters.

 

Wait you think Trump is gonna win the UK election ?

1 hour ago, blaze master said:

 

Wait you think Trump is gonna win the UK election ?

Doesn't he want to be king of the world?

10 hours ago, blaze master said:

 

What a dumb comparison.

That's exactly how they want you!

Yawn.  I guess we're going to have to get used to seeing one of these polls every week or so.  

 

I'll wait until there's the likelihood of an actual election before panicking.

The problem is that the Reform vote is too evenly spread for them to win a majority in the UK electoral system. Tories and Labour benefit from the high percentages in their strongholds and the Libdems are usually overrepresented due to them concentrating their campaign in 'key marginals'

8 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Unlike the U.S., the UK isn’t stuffed with rightwing Christian zealots.

 

 

No it's stuffed with right wing muslim fanatics 

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

That's exactly how they want you!

 

Seems they already got you. Be on your way now.

1 hour ago, blaze master said:

Be on your way now.

QED!

4 hours ago, proton said:

No it's stuffed with right wing muslim fanatics 

 

 

The Nazis blamed Jews for Germany’s decline, recycling old lies until hate felt normal. Today, “Reform” rhetoric does the same with Muslims and immigrants — swapping swastikas for flags but keeping the same poison: invent an enemy, repeat the lie, and watch decent people fall silent as cruelty becomes policy.

 

I see the "grunters" are out in force!

That's a person who lacks either the wit, courage, or vocabulary to form a coherent reply in an online discussion and instead resorts to the primitive act of clicking a red “thumbs down” icon to express disapproval. Like a caveman’s grunt in digital form — low-effort, emotionally driven, and entirely void of argument or insight.

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

 

 

The Nazis blamed Jews for Germany’s decline, recycling old lies until hate felt normal. Today, “Reform” rhetoric does the same with Muslims and immigrants — swapping swastikas for flags but keeping the same poison: invent an enemy, repeat the lie, and watch decent people fall silent as cruelty becomes policy.

 That's a tad extreme.

You are making the same mistake the Conservatives made, generalizing the Reform supporters in a negative context. Although  accurate in respect to a core group of  supporters, it does not reflect the sentiments of the majority of the current supporters. They are frustrated and many are suffering from the poor social and fiscal policies of the UK. They are tired of the  petty crime, of the weekly inflow of thousands of economic migrants who have overloaded the UK's social services and NHS. They are not bad people, nor inherently mean. No one is listening to their fears or concerns or making an effort to help them. They get political lip service. They have embraced  Reform because there is no other political party that will address their concerns. 

 

Look at the support for Corbyn. That was always his core support and that was the group who planted the seeds of destruction of Labour. They are more hateful and dangerous than Reform because they have an organized agenda. People have gravitated to Reform because they are protesting and because no other political party is listening to them. Leadership of the Conservatives is a poisoned chalice and its redemption will only occur once it sorts itself out at the local level and starts rebuilding is local presence in the cities and counties.  Until then, people will hold their noses and vote reform.

Daily Mail is not a good source of anything related to reality

29 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 That's a tad extreme.

You are making the same mistake the Conservatives made, generalizing the Reform supporters in a negative context. Although  accurate in respect to a core group of  supporters, it does not reflect the sentiments of the majority of the current supporters. They are frustrated and many are suffering from the poor social and fiscal policies of the UK. They are tired of the  petty crime, of the weekly inflow of thousands of economic migrants who have overloaded the UK's social services and NHS. They are not bad people, nor inherently mean. No one is listening to their fears or concerns or making an effort to help them. They get political lip service. They have embraced  Reform because there is no other political party that will address their concerns. 

 

Look at the support for Corbyn. That was always his core support and that was the group who planted the seeds of destruction of Labour. They are more hateful and dangerous than Reform because they have an organized agenda. People have gravitated to Reform because they are protesting and because no other political party is listening to them. Leadership of the Conservatives is a poisoned chalice and its redemption will only occur once it sorts itself out at the local level and starts rebuilding is local presence in the cities and counties.  Until then, people will hold their noses and vote reform.

 

What you’ve described is exactly how the Nazis came to power — real grievances twisted into hatred of the wrong people. Blaming migrants for NHS strain is simply false, and repeating that line is doing precisely what Nazi propaganda did: turning frustration into scapegoating. The rest of your reply only underlines how deeply you’ve missed what’s actually happening in UK politics — the manipulation of fear to keep people angry, divided, and obedient.

10 minutes ago, kwilco said:

 

What you’ve described is exactly how the Nazis came to power — real grievances twisted into hatred of the wrong people. Blaming migrants for NHS strain is simply false, and repeating that line is doing precisely what Nazi propaganda did: turning frustration into scapegoating. The rest of your reply only underlines how deeply you’ve missed what’s actually happening in UK politics — the manipulation of fear to keep people angry, divided, and obedient.

Reductio ad Hitlerum

5 minutes ago, kwilco said:

 

What you’ve described is exactly how the Nazis came to power — real grievances twisted into hatred of the wrong people. Blaming migrants for NHS strain is simply false, and repeating that line is doing precisely what Nazi propaganda did: turning frustration into scapegoating. The rest of your reply only underlines how deeply you’ve missed what’s actually happening in UK politics — the manipulation of fear to keep people angry, divided, and obedient.

The UK is nowhere near to the economic collapse that the Weimar Republic experienced. Nor is the UK Parliament dysfunctional and not operating. Dismissing Reform sympathizers as nazi stooges or worse, only demonstrates  your disregard for the people who are compelled to support  Reform. You are talking down to them, dismissing them. Their concerns are legitimate and only Reform is listening.

1 hour ago, Fact said:

Reductio ad Hitlerum

 

In this context, “reductio ad Hitlerum” (also called Godwin’s Law fallacy) would not apply — and calling it that would itself be a facetious and facile dismissal.
A reductio ad Hitlerum is when someone drags Hitler or Nazism into a debate irrelevantly to discredit an opponent (“Hitler was a vegetarian, so vegetarianism is evil”).
But my post draws a historically grounded and methodologically accurate comparison: the use of propaganda, scapegoating, and manufactured fear as political tools. That’s not hyperbole — it’s pattern recognition.
So if someone calls your comment “reduction ad Hitlerum”, the facetiousness lies in pretending the Nazi example is off-limits even when it clearly applies, and the facility lies in using a Latin tag to avoid engaging with the substance — a rhetorical cop-out dressed as sophistication.
 

1 hour ago, Patong2021 said:

The UK is nowhere near to the economic collapse that the Weimar Republic experienced. Nor is the UK Parliament dysfunctional and not operating. Dismissing Reform sympathizers as nazi stooges or worse, only demonstrates  your disregard for the people who are compelled to support  Reform. You are talking down to them, dismissing them. Their concerns are legitimate and only Reform is listening.

 

 

Unfortunately, that’s exactly the kind of reasoning that allows Nazis—or their modern imitators—to rise. No one said Britain is Weimar; the point is that the same methods are being used: fear, scapegoating, and emotional manipulation of the frustrated. As Churchill warned, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Trying to nit-pick differences while ignoring the pattern is precisely how ordinary people end up playing into the hands of extremists.

On 10/15/2025 at 1:58 PM, Social Media said:

 

 

Reform UK Set for Historic Majority, Tories Slashed to 7 MPs

A newly released “megapoll” suggests Reform UK could secure the largest Commons majority in modern history, while the Conservatives would be reduced to just seven MPs. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, conducted by PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus, forecasts Reform winning 445 seats and Labour shrinking to 73 if a general election were held tomorrow.

 

Despite Reform’s dominance in projections, tactical voting could derail their path to power. Over a third of Labour supporters indicated they would vote Conservative instead—to block a Reform surge. The poll also anticipates the Liberal Democrats winning 42 seats, the Scottish National Party 41, and Jeremy Corbyn’s “Your Party” capturing 13.

 

According to the results, Conservatives trail behind Greens (six seats) and Plaid Cymru (five). The projection places major figures in jeopardy: Labour cabinet ministers including Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, and Ed Miliband could be ousted. On the Tory side, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, and Iain Duncan Smith might lose their seats to Reform challengers.The electorate’s priorities also emerge clearly: 59 % rank economy and cost of living as most urgent, followed by immigration and border control (47 %), and the NHS (44 %).

 

Kevin Craig (PLMR) warned the poll shows “a remarkable fall from grace” for Conservatives and pressure on traditional party loyalties. Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus) added that anti-Reform tactical voting, along with fragmentation from Your Party, could cut into Reform’s dominance despite the lead.

 

If validated, the poll reveals a volatile political landscape: Reform is surging amid deep voter discontent, putting both Labour and Tory strongholds at serious risk.

 

Key Takeaways

• Reform UK faces a potential landslide — projected to win 445 seats, with Conservatives cut to just seven.

• Tactical voting and vote-splitting by Labour supporters or new parties may block Reform from translating its lead into power.

• Senior figures across parties are vulnerable, with several cabinet ministers and prominent MPs listed as at risk of losing their seats.

 

🔗 Original source  DAILY MAIL

 

 

Vote for Farage! Vote for Reform!

https://x.com/ABarrosCurtis/status/1978145070952886588

 

2 hours ago, kwilco said:

 

In this context, “reductio ad Hitlerum” (also called Godwin’s Law fallacy) would not apply — and calling it that would itself be a facetious and facile dismissal.
A reductio ad Hitlerum is when someone drags Hitler or Nazism into a debate irrelevantly to discredit an opponent (“Hitler was a vegetarian, so vegetarianism is evil”).
But my post draws a historically grounded and methodologically accurate comparison: the use of propaganda, scapegoating, and manufactured fear as political tools. That’s not hyperbole — it’s pattern recognition.
So if someone calls your comment “reduction ad Hitlerum”, the facetiousness lies in pretending the Nazi example is off-limits even when it clearly applies, and the facility lies in using a Latin tag to avoid engaging with the substance — a rhetorical cop-out dressed as sophistication.
 

It does apply.  People like you see Hitler in everything.   It's lazy thinking on your part.