Thai rice exports fell by 17.5% in January 2026 compared with the same month last year, as a strong baht reduced the country’s price competitiveness. Export volume totalled 530,287 tonnes, down from 643,144 tonnes a year earlier. Export value dropped to THB9.707 billion, a 30.7% decrease.

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Pol Lt Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the appreciation of the Thai baht to around 31 THB per US dollar was the main cause. For every 1 THB the baht strengthens, Thai rice becomes US$12–15 more expensive per tonne. Compared with the same period in 2025, the stronger currency has pushed prices up by US$40 per tonne.

The association has set a 2026 export target of 7.03 million tonnes, an 11% reduction, with projected revenue of THB130 billion. This marks the lowest target in five years since 2021. The situation will be reviewed in the second half of the year to assess whether adjustments are necessary.

Global supply has also increased, intensifying price competition. India has reached a record production level of 152 million tonnes per year, surpassing China’s previous record of 145–146 million tonnes, strengthening its influence over global benchmark prices. Vietnam and Pakistan have also reported strong harvests, contributing to supply exceeding demand.

The association said a competitive exchange rate would be around 33–34 THB per US dollar. At the current level of approximately 31 THB, Thailand is considered uncompetitive against rivals. It called on the government to manage exchange rate stability to support exporters.

Other factors affecting exports include volatility of the baht, high global supply in both exporting and importing countries, US tax measures. and food security policies in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines aimed at reducing imports. The possible return of El Niño, bringing drought and dry spells, may also affect production.

The Nation reported that according to USDA (The US Department of Agriculture) forecasts, global rice production for the 2025/26 marketing year is projected at 541.28 million tonnes, slightly down 0.07% from 541.66 million tonnes in 2024/25. Global rice trade is expected to reach 62.76 million tonnes, a 5.1% increase from 59.7 million tonnes, with major exporters and importers forecast to expand trade volumes.

Key Takeaways

• Thai rice exports in January 2026 fell 17.5% in volume and 30.7% in baht value year-on-year.

• A strong baht at around 31 THB per US dollar has raised prices by US$12–15 per tonne for every 1 THB appreciation.

• The 2026 export target of 7.03 million tonnes is the lowest in five years and will be reviewed later this year

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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 26 Feb 2026

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It is not only the rice that is too expensive but many other products too.. Businesses will look for other countries for the same but much cheaper.. Thailand can be happy about the best performing THB but it will cost much more than its benefit..

What do they expect with the exchange rates countries just wont buy products just because they are from thailand wake up thailand

Thailand-produced products are loosing out in many export markets, in part due to the inflated value of the Thai Baht, as well as Thai production inefficiencies - improvements will not be achieved through the introduction of AI unless the Thai mind-set is changed.

Thailand’s rice exports are sliding because the strong baht makes even jasmine rice too expensive. Buyers who used to pay a premium are switching to cheaper options.

India is now the clear leader, with record production and aggressive pricing across basmati and non-basmati. Vietnam is also gaining ground with fragrant rice that balances quality and affordability.

Thailand still has the reputation for top-grade jasmine, but reputation alone can’t offset the currency problem.

Unless the baht eases or strategies shift, India and Vietnam will keep pulling ahead.

They just will not listen,the same goes for attracting tourists.

As long as the rich hi-so brigade are making millions on the strong baht then the plebs and their rice can rot.

I was told the other day the selling price for rice was about 7Baht per kilo. How anyone can make a living on that is beyond me after paying for fertilizer, planting, moving, harvesting, etc.

Having been in the restaurant business all my life, I’ve seen the price of rice escalate whereas the Cambodian and Vietnam rice is selling very well at stable prices. Considering that in France there are thousands of Asian restaurants , ( 150+ in Nice alone) the demand is great. Not counting the USA and rest of Europe. Now the main importers are pushing the Cambodian rice so they are obviously making more profit. I’ve used all 3 ,and they are good. I’ve also noticed lots of the packed products and tins / bottled ( bamboo / chile sauces / juices, lychees) are coming from,Vietnam. Thailand had better get their calculator out. Fast.

PS.

Forgot to mention where we make the most money apart from our French wine and alcohols:

Singa Beer

Fresh fruit and vegetables delivery twice a week. ( thailand /vietnam).

5 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

It is not only the rice that is too expensive but many other products too.. Businesses will look for other countries for the same but much cheaper.. Thailand can be happy about the best performing THB but it will cost much more than its benefit..

I agree - the government on Thailand needs to wake up to the fact that it also has neighbours whose pricing is very competitive for products that are more or less the same quality

While rice might be something of a canary in the coal mine, it’s symptomatic of a general malaise causing Thailand to lose ground against both its near neighbours and global competitors. A general arrogance and failure to adapt its practices- along with a falling standard of education vs its peers (see its sluggish GDP expansion) will continue to blight its future. Depressingly there’s no sign of political change on the horizon to even begin to address these issues.

Perhaps there is permanent damage already. A lost market is twice as hard to get back again, and there isn't yet a good reason for buyers to return.