Israel's assassination strategy risks backfiring

The campaign by Israel and the United States to systematically kill senior figures in Iran’s leadership may ultimately strengthen the regime rather than destroy it, analysts warn.

Israel has authorised its military to eliminate any senior Iranian official on its assassination list, part of a so-called “decapitation strategy” aimed at destabilising the Islamic Republic and paving the way for political change.

So far the strikes have killed several of the country’s most powerful figures, including supreme leader Ali Khamenei, national security chief Ali Larijani and intelligence minister Esmail Khatib.

But experts say removing top leaders rarely dismantles deeply entrenched systems of power.

Regime resilience underestimated

Iran specialists argue the clerical state is built on layers of institutions that can quickly replace fallen leaders.

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said the regime is not centred on one individual. When leaders are killed, the system simply promotes replacements — often younger and more radical.

Instead of encouraging reform, she warns, assassination campaigns tend to produce hardened loyalists.

“It breeds more resistance,” Vakil said, warning that the deaths of senior officials could galvanise a new generation inside the regime rather than weaken it.

Before the war, analysts believed Iran’s government was already stagnating under pressure from protests and economic decline. The conflict, they say, may now give the leadership a renewed sense of purpose.

History suggests limited impact

Sceptics also point to Israel’s long history of targeted killings.

The country has eliminated leaders of militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah — including figures like Ahmed Yassin — yet those organisations ultimately rebuilt their leadership.

Security analyst Jon B. Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues the attempt to “decapitate” a sovereign state is unprecedented and deeply uncertain.

Rather than collapse, he suggests the most likely outcome could be a wounded but more aggressive Iran — unstable internally and increasingly willing to project violence abroad through cyberattacks, proxy forces and terrorism.

US and Israel’s strategy to kill Iran’s top figures may prove counterproductive | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian