Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[gocus]

IMHO the military did a good job, they just acted like administrators where the management had to be removed.

The lesson is clear bad management and you will get a dose of the same medicine. The coup itself was very well run with no "colateral damage" to use the US term. Congratulation to all involved.

then the military should have take over USA a few years ago, i don't remember seeing such a bunch of corrupts liars and killers at such a scale for years.....

[Plus]

Matchima is financed by anti-Thaksin Prachai, but his influence is very limited now, Samak might try to get Somsak Thepsutin back but what have they got to offer?

Samak has cancelled the meeting with his would be coalition partners - perhaps he realised that they don't need him, they can get into Democrat camp anytime for free.

Re. Daniel Kate's piece - he relies on Giles opinion that can be very far off the mark. Lost of people voted for PPP in the local MP elections but picked up Democrats and Co for the national government. That's one strong message - they don't want Samak as the Prime Minister.

According to the Constitution only MPs elected on "proportional vote" list can enter the government, I believe, MPs from local constituencies would lose their status.

The Prime Minister is decided on the Parlament floor, among all the MPs, by a simple majority vote, and Samak doesn't have it yet, and is far from guaranteed to get it, Abhisit has stronger chances, his fate will depend on horse trading with his coalition partners. Will he offer them a better deal than Samak? The battle has only just began for him and his team.

[Gary A]

As has been mentioned before, vote buying worries are really stupid. Of course they would take the money and remark to their friends how stupid it is for politicians to give away money. They will vote for whomever they please regardless of who gives them money.

I did ask my wife if anyone offered her money and she was disappointed that no one had. I asked her if they HAD given her money if she would have voted for them. She just grinned and said that people vote for whomever they want to. She was actually quite upset that Samak may/will be the new Prime Minister.

[hammered]

Whatever arises it looks like a weak government unless someone wants to go for a national government with PPP and Dems which is quite unlikely. The small parties can pretty much demand what they want and expect to get it.

[hammered]

My Lao Thai nephew in Issarn is one of those poor uneducated rice farmers you speak of. He took out one of your "Toxic loans".

He bought one of those single cylinder diesel farm trucks and made some extra money with it. After only a year he was able to borrow some more and buy a rice husking machine. Now he husks and bags rice for his neighbours and makes a nice little profit. [...] Can you guess who he voted for?

Sums it up brilliantly. I'd too like to take this opportunity to give all junta-apologists & democracy haters formally the finger.

Here's hoping that the military involvement the past year will turn out to have been just a bad dream that's now come to an end, as we witness a new sunrise. As you may have gathered from my posts, I am not the staunchest optimist in the world, but even pessimists can have hope.

As for predictions.. .. . I have a feeling that PPP is willing to negotiate away just about anything if they can form a government and thus bring Dr. Thaksin Shinawatra back in a glorious return. If there was betting on results in this country then I'd put a few quid on neither Samak nor Abhisit becoming PM.. PPP may agree to let someone like Suwit Khunkitti become PM. Note that Mr. Suwit already served as a deputy PM in Dr. Thaksin's cabinet before. I actually met the guy myself and I have no doubt that he'd be a much better PM than Samak.

The upper feudal elite might just be okay with that as well, especially as they keep a firm grip on power through the Senate and other less democratic stuff they managed to get into their constitution. I think that would be rather good for the country, AND the only shot at something resembling 'unity', or at least working towards it.

Suwit didnt win a seat from what I read which means he cant be PM. Guess that puts it over to Banharn (cringe) but like you say the elite may be happy with him as well as Suwit.

[jbowman1993]

In 2005 TRT got nearly 80% of the votes, in 2007 only half of that. That's a big big loss.

The vote wasn't about PPP vs Democrats or PPP vs Chat Thai. It was PPP against everyone else, and they clearly lost, just like they lost the consitution vote earlier this year.

No other party cares about Thaksin, if you look at this vote as a referendum on his legacy - people told him to shove it and voted for someone else instead.

It's time to let go of that dead horse and move on - majority of people don't want Thaksin anymore.

After Chat Thai and Pua Paendin refused to join PPP, Samak needs at least two other small parties to form the government, same as the current Democrat led coalition. The problem for PPP is that all those small parties are on the other side of the huge ideological gap, the gap PPP has created itself. They are pro-coup/anti-Thaksin, if PPP invites them, it will have to make major concessions and tone down or even abandon its "return Thaksin" winning policy.

There are ways to get around this but those small parties can join Democrats and get into the government without any hassle and backroom deals and risk of alienating their supporters.

If you look at national politics/proportional vote results, PPP's loss is even more dramatic - they've got only slightly over 30% - almost 70% voted against them, so much for "vote PPP get Thaksin" slogan.

The battle isn't over, but Abhisit has all the cards he needs to form the government, what does Samak have? Certainly not the electorate endorsement to return Thaksin at any cost.

Right on every count Plus. Careful. This much fact and reality is sure to scare the hel_l out of most "Chicken littles" on TV (i.e. The Sky is Falling)

[Jai Dee]

Chart Thai Leader refuses to reveal party’s stance

Leader of the Chart Thai party Banharn Silpa-archa declines to give opinions to clarify his political stance after last night Chart Thai has agreed to ally itself with the Puea Pan Din (เพื่อแผ่นดิน) party.

Mr Banharn only tells the media that there is no progress concerning the party’s decision to join which political pole.

Press members are closely following the movements of the party leader today.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 24 December 2007

[Jai Dee]

EU declares Thailand’s election a success

The European Union (EU) declares Thailand’s general election on December 23 a success as the country has been under martial law for more than a year.

According to the EU’s announcement, the December 23 election is a landmark in Thailand’s democracy and Thai people has decided the political future by themselves.

In addition, the EU reports that deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s ally won the general election held for the first time after the September 19 coup. EU also expresses confidence that its relations with Thailand’s new elected government will be strong and prosperous.

Meanwhile, foreign analysts expect that Mr Thaksin will be no longer in exile if his ally is successful in forming a government.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 24 December 2007

[SpacemanSpliff]

I disagree with part of what Plus wrote, especially his opinion that Thaksin is in the past and the people don't want him anymore.

Because that disregards the circumstances: PPP achieved victory IN SPITE OF having to campaign in the most difficult of circumstances; martial law in most of their support-base areas, severe intimidation and restrictions on campaigning, a military controlled PR campaign funded by public money.. And STILL they were victorious..

I dare say 'congratulations' are in order.

I loved the EU statement also.. Thanks Jaidee for quoting that.

Edited December 24, 2007 by SpacemanSpliff

[Jai Dee]

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana unclear whether to join new Govt.

Deputy Leader of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana (รวมใจไทยชาติพัฒนา) party, Kasemsant Weerakul (เกษมสันต์ วีระกุล), says the party has yet decided to ally itself with any party.

Mr Kasemsant says Pradit Pattaraprasit (ประดิษฐ์ ภัทรประสิทธิ์), the party’s secretary-general and coordinator, is not likely to call a meeting today to discuss the party’s role after the election. He also suggests that the new government should revise the 2007 Constitution but says there are other problems which are more urgent than charter amendment.

The deputy leader says he thinks that that the general election is free and fair, showing that the military did not meddle with it. He therefore praises the military for being impartial during the general election.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 24 December 2007

[thai_narak]

In 2005 TRT got nearly 80% of the votes, in 2007 only half of that. That's a big big loss.

The vote wasn't about PPP vs Democrats or PPP vs Chat Thai. It was PPP against everyone else, and they clearly lost, just like they lost the consitution vote earlier this year.

No other party cares about Thaksin, if you look at this vote as a referendum on his legacy - people told him to shove it and voted for someone else instead.

It's time to let go of that dead horse and move on - majority of people don't want Thaksin anymore.

After Chat Thai and Pua Paendin refused to join PPP, Samak needs at least two other small parties to form the government, same as the current Democrat led coalition. The problem for PPP is that all those small parties are on the other side of the huge ideological gap, the gap PPP has created itself. They are pro-coup/anti-Thaksin, if PPP invites them, it will have to make major concessions and tone down or even abandon its "return Thaksin" winning policy.

There are ways to get around this but those small parties can join Democrats and get into the government without any hassle and backroom deals and risk of alienating their supporters.

If you look at national politics/proportional vote results, PPP's loss is even more dramatic - they've got only slightly over 30% - almost 70% voted against them, so much for "vote PPP get Thaksin" slogan.

The battle isn't over, but Abhisit has all the cards he needs to form the government, what does Samak have? Certainly not the electorate endorsement to return Thaksin at any cost.

Right on every count Plus. Careful. This much fact and reality is sure to scare the hel_l out of most "Chicken littles" on TV (i.e. The Sky is Falling)

and all the farmer's daughters husbands.

[Jai Dee]

EC reports more than 70% of voter turnout

The Election Commission (EC) announces that there is more than 70% of voter turnout for the December 23 election after it has finished checking the vote counts of each province.

EC Secretary-General Sutthipol Thaweechaikarn (สุทธิพล ทวีชัยการ) reports that eight provinces have submitted the election results to the central EC office so far, including the 2nd and 3rd constituencies of Bangkok, Samut Sakhon, Sa Kaeo, Nakhon Phanom, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Surat Thani, Phatthalung, and Ang Thong.

According to Mr Sutthipol, four provinces have the voter turnout of exceeding 70%, including Nonthaburi, Chaiyaphum, Udon Thani, and Ubon Ratchathani. The total voter turnout is 70.24% from the eligible voters of 45,658,170.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 24 December 2007

[hammered]

I disagree with part of what Plus road, especially his opinion that Thaksin is in the past and the people don't want him anymore.

Because that disregards the circumstances: PPP achieved victory IN SPITE OF having to campaign in the most difficult of circumstances; martial law in most of their support-base areas, severe intimidation and restrictions on campaigning, a military controlled smear campagin funded by public money.. And STILL they were victorious..

I dare say 'congratulations' are in order.

Thaksin certainly garnered a fair few million votes for the PPP. Sure Thaksin's popularity has gone down judging by the PPP and Dems both getting 14 million votes which wouldn't have happened a few years ago. To think Thaksin is a thing of the past is something people will do at their own risk. He is still the man of the moment in Thai politics and I wonder how many anti-thaksin people would actually prefer him to Samak as PM!

Interestingly I haven't seen a comment from Gen. Surayud or Gen. Sonthi yet.

Maybe the horse trading will lead to a 7 party Dem led coalition but that will be a very unstable and short lived government. Better that PPP get to lead for a while. Whatever kind of bizarre stuff went on in the election it is still the voice of the people at this time and they have clearly chosen the PPP. It is also good to see the Dems do better than expected and I agree with Bangkok Pundit on this one that they have something to be proud of especially after the low point of the Banyat led mess only 2 years ago. Maybe in a few more years Thailand will see a two party system evolve especially with all the alternative parties under-performing badly and all of them seeing big hitters lose out. If the warlord/family/interest group parties actually start to disintegrate that can only be a good thing for the country. Certainly this time most voters (28 million of them) chose one of 2 parties identified with a position rather than an opportunistic party just wanting to be in government. While I read of all the doom and gloom I personally think a number of good things have come out of this election that could auger well for Thai democracy in the future even if the short term future looks a bit dodgy.

Peace and here's to hoping no strange incidents occur

[SpacemanSpliff]

Very good analysis, Hammered.. I join you in hoping for progress.

In a strange sort of way I do feel I woke up in a more democratic place this morning.

By the way, I did catch a comment from Surayud, who was remarkable restrained, didn't condemn or congratulate anyone but just stated that he wished a stable government would be formed. So my feeling that also among the ruling elite there's currently not a lot of appetite to continue to meddle in politics.

Edited December 24, 2007 by SpacemanSpliff

[Maxi101]

huuuuh my mobile connection is soo bad !!!

what about a phone line uhh ?

Edited December 24, 2007 by Maxi101

[John K]

It seems to me still too early to talk about this. The fact that Samak is out of sight clearly suggests he is on the Phone with Thaksin getting his next instructions and some spending money to buy off the other parties.

My walk around last night left me feeling very uncomfortable. My first stop was Lotus in On Nut and on the skytrain heading there I was paying carful attention to the faces of the Thais. There were absolutely no smiles to be seen. Lotus was not any better. Even when I forced a greeting smile none was returned. I honestly felt I was shopping at WalMart in the states and not at Lotus in Thailand.

From there I went to lower Sukhumvit where I could find crowds and the results were much the same. Certainly the Thais that are smart enough to know what is going on and have a reasonable idea as to what will happen are very down.

Some of the comments from Samak saying he will let club 111 off the hook was even more insulting from the top down.

I regret to say the most positive thing I can see at this moment greatly resembles doom and gloom. Most Thais I saw are in shock at the moment and it will take a few days for all this to sink in.

[Maxi101]

Ok, nobody seems to be able to tell it to the Army leaders what they should have done:

- go to the Esarn and other poor rural areas

- built roads, provide tap water

- introduce basic and better health care (not just scrap the old scheme)

- provide free school support for better learning pupils

- provide support for teacher who's work is over average quality

- raise the (anyway controlled) selling prices for rice, cassava, sugar and other crops for the farmers

- introduce government controlled trade places for livestock

and finally do a good propaganda who they have to be grateful for what they receive.

Would have been a sure WIN - WIN situation.

Sure there are more points what they COULD have done ...... but now wondering what went wrong ?!?!

The time they had was surely enough to succeed.

Compare that, to what they actually did.

maxi

Edited December 24, 2007 by Maxi101

[PeaceBlondie]

When I asked my partner yesterday, "Who did you vote for?" the answer was "THAKSIN!!" )

[kurtgruen]

Now that it's the day after the election, what is happening so far, doesn't seem to much different from what happens in other so-called "Democracies". I think the interm Thai government has done a very good job so far, running this election.

There are two huge positive things that have happened already today...

We don't need to hide our beers anymore and...

The election karaoke trucks are gone and it's nice and quiet again.

And sticking to my new promise I made last night....I drink until the Democrats take power (whenever that will be ;-)

[Lost in LOS]

Many people on here are surprised at vote buying. they seem to think that giving the thai's 100 baht or more each for a vote is a lot of money. Thaskin has billions of dollars. If you still think that is a lot of money to buy votes, you should really have an good idea of just how much a billion is>

A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet

jimmy

[hammered]

Now that it's the day after the election, what is happening so far, doesn't seem to much different from what happens in other so-called "Democracies". I think the interm Thai government has done a very good job so far, running this election.

There are two huge positive things that have happened already today...

We don't need to hide our beers anymore and...

The election karaoke trucks are gone and it's nice and quiet again.

And sticking to my new promise I made last night....I drink until the Democrats take power (whenever that will be ;-)

You could be a total alcoholic by that time At least you should enjoy New Year.

[dukkha]

A METROSEXUAL WITH A VERY BAD HAIR DAY I WOULD SAY...GEL SALES MUST BE ROCKETING....

It's encouraging to see Thaksin's son has cleaned up his act and gotten off the drugs.

Having a very bad day?

[Jai Dee]

Puea Pandin leader to make statement today

Puea Pandin party leader Suvit Khunkitti is due to make a statement about his party’s political direction later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, party spokesman Watchiramon Gunakasemthanawat admitted that the People Power party led by Samak Sundaravej had contacted the party last night about forming a coalition government but not much progress was made.

More from the Bangkok Post here.

[thai_narak]

Many people on here are surprised at vote buying. they seem to think that giving the thai's 100 baht or more each for a vote is a lot of money. Thaskin has billions of dollars. If you still think that is a lot of money to buy votes, you should really have an good idea of just how much a billion is>

A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet

jimmy

actually, thaksin is giving 1,000 baht per head but only 500 baht down to 100 baht are given and the rest are for the middle men who are running the show. but yes, this is peanuts for thaksin.

[samsara]

...and yet another example of why democracy DOES NOT work, especially in a vastly uneducated society. it doesnt work in the US (citing last election) because people are too blind (uneducated) to actually vote about issues rather than sentiments (faith, nice guy status, etc.). the results in bkk are the PROPER results for this election. they are the common sense final cause of everything that has happened the past 2 years here. but your never question authority/short-term-gratification votes of Isaan have destroyed the mandate of the people. imo, this election shows the mandate of the thai people to be GIVE ME A BOTTLE OF MEKONG rather than GIVE ME A RULING PARTY THAT GIVES A SHIT. so sad.

[hammered]

My walk around last night left me feeling very uncomfortable. My first stop was Lotus in On Nut and on the skytrain heading there I was paying carful attention to the faces of the Thais. There were absolutely no smiles to be seen. Lotus was not any better. Even when I forced a greeting smile none was returned. Certainly the Thais that are smart enough to know what is going on and have a reasonable idea as to what will happen are very down.

On the bright side though, lots of smiles where I am!!

But I'll check next time I'm in Bangkok.. the place never looked that smiley to me on the best of days.

Some of the comments from Samak saying he will let club 111 off the hook was even more insulting from the top down.

Personally I thought banning them in the first place in a military sponsored show-trial was the insulting thing from the top down.

The fist person to suggest an amnesty was Gen. Sonthi back the day after the verdict. It didnt go down so well then but at least that shows us there may even be a consensus between Samak/PPP/Thaksin and some of the generals on a few things.

[hammered]

...and yet another example of why democracy DOES NOT work, especially in a vastly uneducated society. it doesnt work in the US (citing last election) because people are too blind (uneducated) to actually vote about issues rather than sentiments (faith, nice guy status, etc.). the results in bkk are the PROPER results for this election. they are the common sense final cause of everything that has happened the past 2 years here. but your never question authority/short-term-gratification votes of Isaan have destroyed the mandate of the people. imo, this election shows the mandate of the thai people to be GIVE ME A BOTTLE OF MEKONG rather than GIVE ME A RULING PARTY THAT GIVES A SHIT. so sad.

Maybe the answwer then is to better distribute wealth to the poor so a small gift does not mean so much and maybe giving them better access to education would help too.

[John K]

My walk around last night left me feeling very uncomfortable. My first stop was Lotus in On Nut and on the skytrain heading there I was paying carful attention to the faces of the Thais. There were absolutely no smiles to be seen. Lotus was not any better. Even when I forced a greeting smile none was returned. Certainly the Thais that are smart enough to know what is going on and have a reasonable idea as to what will happen are very down.

On the bright side though, lots of smiles where I am!!

But I'll check next time I'm in Bangkok.. the place never looked that smiley to me on the best of days.

Some of the comments from Samak saying he will let club 111 off the hook was even more insulting from the top down.

Personally I thought banning them in the first place in a military sponsored show-trial was the insulting thing from the top down.

Actually if you check it was very publicized that the judges had a few visits to the palace for guidance and the military along with the people accepted the ruling. Please be sure you get your facts straight and not end up in trouble for criticizing the court, that part was made very clear. Now it looks like the PPP plans to go beyond all that and just rip out the ruling by the roots. It is like giving people in jail the keys.

Don’t forget the incident that was the basis of the ruling was well before the coup.

[samsara]

...and yet another example of why democracy DOES NOT work, especially in a vastly uneducated society. it doesnt work in the US (citing last election) because people are too blind (uneducated) to actually vote about issues rather than sentiments (faith, nice guy status, etc.). the results in bkk are the PROPER results for this election. they are the common sense final cause of everything that has happened the past 2 years here. but your never question authority/short-term-gratification votes of Isaan have destroyed the mandate of the people. imo, this election shows the mandate of the thai people to be GIVE ME A BOTTLE OF MEKONG rather than GIVE ME A RULING PARTY THAT GIVES A SHIT. so sad.

Maybe the answwer then is to better distribute wealth to the poor so a small gift does not mean so much and maybe giving them better access to education would help too.

couldnt agree more. theres such a huge chasm between the educated/uneducated in this country, not to mention the haves/have-nots. sadly, i dont see this changing any time soon. the ruling class NEVER wants the masses to rise up cause the second your average farmer can actually read between the lines then your task of staying in power just got a whole lot more difficult.

democracy is a mirage, im afraid. historically propped up by first world countries so that they can remain first world countries. economic imperialism.

[themuse1969]

I was asked by a Thai friend which party I favour, not which one would win. My opinion does not have residential substance. I've only been here a short distance. But, since I have been here I have followed the campaign news closely and I have tended to favour the Democrat Party.

The PPP already has a record of corruption (which isn't to say any other party is squeaky clean, mind you). I do not know if the economic well-being of Thailand can accommodate a policy of protecting national corporations, but from a standpoint of protecting Thai culture, I tend to regard privatisation as perilous.

Nevertheless, the Thai people must trek along as best they can, like everyone else. Iet us not ourselves wallow in judgment of anyone, no matter our own national origin. Expatriation could easily be seen as a copout. If any one of us had some ultimate answer for everyone else, I'd like to think that one would be making speeches like crazy.