Now That The Ppp-led Coalition Is In Power ?

[Ricardo]

The pre-election Poll showed, that most TV-posters who voted, thought there was a very-real chance of another coup, within a few weeks of the election.

Happily this didn't come-to-pass, we now have an elected PPP-led coalition-government in power, and the military held back from preventing this, for whatever reasons one may ascribe to them. Welcome back democracy !

But we now have a return to many old TRT-policies, an interesting character as the new PM, the threatened-return (at some date seemingly being pushed-back all the time) of Thaksin, the possibility of the courts being pressured to drop corruption-cases against leading-politicians, and so on. So plenty of potential for conflict again.

On the other hand, the Democrats in Opposition now form a substantial minority, who can question the government on their actions, the media (based on reporting during the run-up to the election) appear to be more free again, the EC have been seen to punish blatant cheating in-the-polls, and the military may feel that their first time in-power for 15 years was not very successful, damping their desire for a repeat.

So how likely is another military-coup, over the next year, in your opinion ?

I would say that personally, I feel the poll will show a lower likelihood, having got past the first few dangerous weeks, but that I can still imagine situations which might pressure the military to step in.

What do other TV-posters think ?

[jbowman1993]

The pre-election Poll showed, that most TV-posters who voted, thought there was a very-real chance of another coup, within a few weeks of the election.

Happily this didn't come-to-pass, we now have an elected PPP-led coalition-government in power, and the military held back from preventing this, for whatever reasons one may ascribe to them. Welcome back democracy !

But we now have a return to many old TRT-policies, an interesting character as the new PM, the threatened-return (at some date seemingly being pushed-back all the time) of Thaksin, the possibility of the courts being pressured to drop corruption-cases against leading-politicians, and so on. So plenty of potential for conflict again.

On the other hand, the Democrats in Opposition now form a substantial minority, who can question the government on their actions, the media (based on reporting during the run-up to the election) appear to be more free again, the EC have been seen to punish blatant cheating in-the-polls, and the military may feel that their first time in-power for 15 years was not very successful, damping their desire for a repeat.

So how likely is another military-coup, over the next year, in your opinion ?

I would say that personally, I feel the poll will show a lower likelihood, having got past the first few dangerous weeks, but that I can still imagine situations which might pressure the military to step in.

What do other TV-posters think ?

Never say never, but I think (hope) that the military learned its lesson. In 21st century, military men are not capable of running a country. In the past these kind of interventions by military have been overlooked, but that is no longer the case. Other countries will not react favorably to a coup, and the generals themselves probably realize that they looked like complete asses, and are unlikely to make that mistake again.

[steveromagnino]

Never say never, but I think (hope) that the military learned its lesson. In 21st century, military men are not capable of running a country. In the past these kind of interventions by military have been overlooked, but that is no longer the case. Other countries will not react favorably to a coup, and the generals themselves probably realize that they looked like complete asses, and are unlikely to make that mistake again.

IMHO the coup was the right option,but the govt they put in place was a mess - and that govt was NOT military men, better described as endorsed by the military and useless as politicians and marketers.

I think they have learned they probably don't know enough to compete in a marketing driven landscape, and hopefully the new constitution has enough of a check and balance to stop the TRT 2006 situation from appearing again (one leader with money, no checks and balances at all)

[britmaveric]

Waste of time - I think muppets learned their lesson that everything stays the same.

[ray08]

Dont think a another coup would go down well with the population , and in fact if it did happen i think a backlash would occur against the military

Really this and future governments should take control over the millitary to ensure they answer to the government , not generals with there own agenda,s , there is no place at all for the millitary in Government , if they think they know better they should stand up and be elected not bully there way in to government

[onlooker]

No chance.

For the obvious reason that the organisers if the last coup screwed up big time in their estimation of the loyalties of the rural Thais and 'he who cannot be mentioned on this forum' is highly unlikely to sanction another overthrow of a democratically elected government after the last fiasco.

Have a read of Ji Ungpakorn's most recent book - A Coup for the Rich', recently banned here after being on sale in Thammasat Uni bookshops for a while. Can download the pdf for free though

[jfchandler]

Gee...the last time was SO successful... Can't imagine they don't want to try again!!!

Seriously..I think history will show it was the right thing to do.. at the outset/under the circumstances... But everything after that... BLAH!!!!!

[meom]

No chance.

For the obvious reason that the organisers if the last coup screwed up big time in their estimation of the loyalties of the rural Thais and 'he who cannot be mentioned on this forum' is highly unlikely to sanction another overthrow of a democratically elected government after the last fiasco.

Have a read of Ji Ungpakorn's most recent book - A Coup for the Rich', recently banned here after being on sale in Thammasat Uni bookshops for a while. Can download the pdf for free though

He who cannot be mentioned won't be here forever and I think another coup is likely after his demise.