Property Crisis ?

[fredovitch13]

Hi ,

Due to the financial crisis and economical crisis. Do u think it's gonna have property crisis in Thailand? The property, house, condo, studio will be undersell ?

Thanks to give your mind

[redman]

I take it you just got off the pane tonight from a land where there are no newspapers or internet facilities. There has been a property crisis here for 2 years

[h90]

I take it you just got off the pane tonight from a land where there are no newspapers or internet facilities. There has been a property crisis here for 2 years

But I don't see any land is getting cheap (maybe some properties inside city).

[quiksilva]

I think 'crisis' is a overly used term.

But if you were to ask me "will their be fewer transactions?" I would answer "yes".

If you were to ask me "will values decline" I would have to give a longer answer:

You see it depends on how long this climate remains depressed and how much pain the Thais will actually feel but we must talk in real terms, not merely conjecture.

Property values are not like the values of liquid assets such as stocks and shares that can rebound or plummet in a blink of an eye. Property is the most illiquid of all assets especially in Thailand.

In a functioning transparent market like the UK property market, values are much more volatile, they can drop in the course of a month, here the market is opaque and so it takes time for the owners to accept market realities, if they choose to accept them at all. Remember many can simply afford not to listen and opt not to sell, which is why it depends on how much pain the owners are feeling.

The problem here is that you can not accurately gauge true levels of demand. If a developer talks their project up and quotes numbers of recorded sales its difficult to prove otherwise until transfer of units occur which could be two years off.

So if any 'crisis' or slump happens it will not happen overnight, it will take time. It will start with a long period of little to no sales (with increased leasing activity), then we must wait to see how deep and hard this recession bites to gauge the likely effect on values.

Right now nobody really knows just how bad it will be or how Thailand will fare. All anyone can do right now is guess, some will be more negative than others and all will have their own rationale for their respective trains of thought.

Personally I see Thailand remaining to be an attractive destination for export oriented manufacturing (and this is supported by recent activity in this sector that my firm is seeing) as costs rise at home. Thailand is cheaper than China (unless you want a factory 13 hours from anywhere) and has better infrastructure than cheaper rivals like Vietnam which expected to improve further with more public spending.

I expect that the Baht will be strategically devalued to support export industry coupled with more aggressive investment privileges from the BOI to attract what little FDI is out there looking for a home in the region.

Edited October 30, 2008 by quiksilva

[Pib]

Hi ,

Due to the financial crisis and economical crisis. Do u think it's gonna have property crisis in Thailand? The property, house, condo, studio will be undersell ?

Thanks to give your mind

I don't think there will be a property crisis for Thai's as they will just do the normal thing of waiting it out except in extreme cases. Now farang sellers/owners may be prone to lower their prices significantly to get out from under a piece of real estate.

[yabaaaa]

Please go to the Bingobongo website for the full story!!

1. Bingobongo present "check"

2. Chanting mantra of Bingobongo "check"

3. Every quote from every paper anywhere re downward spiral "check"

4 Drone effect " check"

[cclub75]

Please go to the Bingobongo website for the full story!!

1. Bingobongo present "check"

2. Chanting mantra of Bingobongo "check"

3. Every quote from every paper anywhere re downward spiral "check"

4 Drone effect " check"

No I don't agree.

You seem to forgot the basic rules :

-1-the market is healthy

-2-the market is indeed healthy

-3-there is no crisis

-4-and if, after throughout investigation and by any chance, we would find a crisis, then it would be immediately over for the very good reason that Obama Our Savior has been elected

Oh sorry, maybe... you were ironic ? I'm certainly not.

Edited November 5, 2008 by cclub75

[MetroGirl]

YES!........YES!

your welcome

[glyph]

"There has been a property crisis here for 2 years."

And during those two years, the price of property has appreciated steadily. Oh wait a minute, that's NOT a crisis. Sorry!

[LennyW]

"There has been a property crisis here for 2 years."

And during those two years, the price of property has appreciated steadily. Oh wait a minute, that's NOT a crisis. Sorry!

And continues to appreciate, oops, sorry, still not a crisis!!

[midas]

Well glyph and LennyW, ! I was just listening to a

phone in by the normally optimistic Donald Trump on Fox TV.

Surely you both know him because he is probably just as enthusiastic

about real estate as you two

Donald Trump was just saying despite

the $700 billion rescue package -it's not working! Because the banks are

sitting on the money and not lending it. He said deals cannot be done

and are not being done. In a way how can you blame them if they are

worried about deflation -why would banks loan out money for people

to buy assets that could go down in value?

Donald Trump was also saying that also this Friday( tomorrow ) the unemployment statistics in the USA

will send " people's heads spinning " ! He also said it is looking more like

1930 everyday and his words - that it is " a very serious situation now ".

If you are saying that all this is not going have a serious repercussion

on the Thai property market eventually then you both must be smoking something

[LennyW]

Well glyph and LennyW, ! I was just listening to a

phone in by the normally optimistic Donald Trump on Fox TV.

Surely you both know him because he is probably just as enthusiastic

about real estate as you two

Donald Trump was just saying despite

the $700 billion rescue package -it's not working! Because the banks are

sitting on the money and not lending it. He said deals cannot be done

and are not being done. In a way how can you blame them if they are

worried about deflation -why would banks loan out money for people

to buy assets that could go down in value?

Donald Trump was also saying that also this Friday( tomorrow ) the unemployment statistics in the USA

will send " people's heads spinning " ! He also said it is looking more like

1930 everyday and his words - that it is " a very serious situation now ".

If you are saying that all this is not going have a serious repercussion

on the Thai property market eventually then you both must be smoking something

That be the same Donald that is away to spend a billion dollars creating a golf club and million dollar homes on the outskirts of Aberdeen (my ex home town), cant be bothering him much then? Rumour has it that he is also investing heavily in real estate in Bangkok..., i guess the jist of his talk was to emphasise the problems in America - not elsewhwere in the world

[Scott]

I would be most interested to know about Donald Trump investing in Bangkok real estate. I have trouble with that one. Anybody got any evidence of it?

[midas]

That be the same Donald that is away to spend a billion dollars creating a golf club and million dollar homes on the outskirts of Aberdeen (my ex home town), cant be bothering him much then? Rumour has it that he is also investing heavily in real estate in Bangkok..., i guess the jist of his talk was to emphasise the problems in America - not elsewhwere in the world

Lenny those decisions were made by him probably LONG ago.......but what

he is saying TODAY and just the way he was speaking on the phone.............

he is WORRIED !!!!!! How do you know how and when it will affect Thailand ?

[midas]

I would be most interested to know about Donald Trump investing in Bangkok real estate. I have trouble with that one. Anybody got any evidence of it?

Scott I think LennyW is correct ( or maybe we should say WAS correct !)

In that he was intending to do something in Thailand - I remember seeing it

on some news item.

But that is not relevant to what he was saying today -if he hasn't signed

any contracts and if he thinks things are going to be as bad as what he was

saying today on Fox TV I would think his future plans would have changed

drastically

[LennyW]

I would be most interested to know about Donald Trump investing in Bangkok real estate. I have trouble with that one. Anybody got any evidence of it?

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Also says in this article that Asia is looking to be one of the best choices for future investment......

Press and Journal TODAY - Mr Trump has vowed not to let the world financial crisis stand in the way of creating the worlds greatest golf course....., and work will be starting as soon as possible.....

So make up your own minds

[midas]

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Also says in this article that Asia is looking to be one of the best choices for future investment......

Press and Journal TODAY - Mr Trump has vowed not to let the world financial crisis stand in the way of creating the worlds greatest golf course....., and work will be starting as soon as possible.....

So make up your own minds

A number of people today have confirmed the 700 billion is not

flowing through the system.................. this in itself will dictate what will happen

no matter how bullish people are about property market anywhere in the world !

It's going to be a bumpy ride ahead

[midas]

I would be most interested to know about Donald Trump investing in Bangkok real estate. I have trouble with that one. Anybody got any evidence of it?

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Just hang on a minute Lenny !!

On September 8th the world knew nothing about the need for a 700 billion

rescue package ! Since September 8th and now there has been

a dramatic change in world conditions.........

I hope you don't sell real estate this way

[LennyW]

I would be most interested to know about Donald Trump investing in Bangkok real estate. I have trouble with that one. Anybody got any evidence of it?

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Just hang on a minute Lenny !!

On September 8th the world knew nothing about the need for a 700 billion

rescue package ! Since September 8th and now there has been

a dramatic change in world conditions.........

I hope you don't sell real estate this way

You are correct, it was asked for on the 19th of Sept, but i am not buying that the world knew nothing about the need for it 10 days earlier, especially people like the Donald!!

[Gravelrash]

Well glyph and LennyW, ! I was just listening to a

phone in by the normally optimistic Donald Trump on Fox TV.

Surely you both know him because he is probably just as enthusiastic

about real estate as you two

Donald Trump was just saying despite

the $700 billion rescue package -it's not working! Because the banks are

sitting on the money and not lending it. He said deals cannot be done

and are not being done. In a way how can you blame them if they are

worried about deflation -why would banks loan out money for people

to buy assets that could go down in value?

Donald Trump was also saying that also this Friday( tomorrow ) the unemployment statistics in the USA

will send " people's heads spinning " ! He also said it is looking more like

1930 everyday and his words - that it is " a very serious situation now ".

If you are saying that all this is not going have a serious repercussion

on the Thai property market eventually then you both must be smoking something

Did you actually admit to Fox TV? After that anything else you have to say has no basis in fact whatsoever. If you are going to take your worldviews from there, get a lobotomy now and save yourself some pain. Better still after the op apply as a reporter, you will be the envy of all your workmates.

[Gravelrash]

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Also says in this article that Asia is looking to be one of the best choices for future investment......

Press and Journal TODAY - Mr Trump has vowed not to let the world financial crisis stand in the way of creating the worlds greatest golf course....., and work will be starting as soon as possible.....

So make up your own minds

A number of people today have confirmed the 700 billion is not

flowing through the system.................. this in itself will dictate what will happen

no matter how bullish people are about property market anywhere in the world !

It's going to be a bumpy ride ahead

And why do you think it isn't flowing through the system?

[prefabs]

"There has been a property crisis here for 2 years."

And during those two years, the price of property has appreciated steadily. Oh wait a minute, that's NOT a crisis. Sorry!

And continues to appreciate, oops, sorry, still not a crisis!!

Ok, I'll bite. Exactly where does the price of property continue to escalate? I am sure the bedraggled line of failed developments in the Jomtien area are testament to your observation skills. Letters to this and other forums saying that people have had houses up for sale for many months and even years without a single viewer indicate a divergence of opinion. Or are you agents who just talk garbage?

[midas]

Well glyph and LennyW, ! I was just listening to a

phone in by the normally optimistic Donald Trump on Fox TV.

Surely you both know him because he is probably just as enthusiastic

about real estate as you two

Donald Trump was just saying despite

the $700 billion rescue package -it's not working! Because the banks are

sitting on the money and not lending it. He said deals cannot be done

and are not being done. In a way how can you blame them if they are

worried about deflation -why would banks loan out money for people

to buy assets that could go down in value?

Donald Trump was also saying that also this Friday( tomorrow ) the unemployment statistics in the USA

will send " people's heads spinning " ! He also said it is looking more like

1930 everyday and his words - that it is " a very serious situation now ".

If you are saying that all this is not going have a serious repercussion

on the Thai property market eventually then you both must be smoking something

Did you actually admit to Fox TV? After that anything else you have to say has no basis in fact whatsoever. If you are going to take your worldviews from there, get a lobotomy now and save yourself some pain. Better still after the op apply as a reporter, you will be the envy of all your workmates.

Hold on Gravelrash I prefer CNN or BBC any day and before the election the bias towards

the Republicans on Fox channel was excruciatingly painful. But this is not a political issue and listening to what was

a seemingly very worried Donald Trump on the phone criticizing the banks for not lending out

the bail out package money would have been equally interesting and factual whichever TV channel

was airing this

Edited November 7, 2008 by midas

[midas]

8 Sept 2008 Bangkok Post - Thai investment (8 Sept not exactly long ago?)

Also says in this article that Asia is looking to be one of the best choices for future investment......

Press and Journal TODAY - Mr Trump has vowed not to let the world financial crisis stand in the way of creating the worlds greatest golf course....., and work will be starting as soon as possible.....

So make up your own minds

A number of people today have confirmed the 700 billion is not

flowing through the system.................. this in itself will dictate what will happen

no matter how bullish people are about property market anywhere in the world !

It's going to be a bumpy ride ahead

And why do you think it isn't flowing through the system?

That simple to answer! It's obvious those trying to raise capital are finding it impossible to do so

[yabaaaa]

Please go to the Bingobongo website for the full story!!

1. Bingobongo present "check"

2. Chanting mantra of Bingobongo "check"

3. Every quote from every paper anywhere re downward spiral "check"

4 Drone effect " check"

No I don't agree.

You seem to forgot the basic rules :

-1-the market is healthy

-2-the market is indeed healthy

-3-there is no crisis

-4-and if, after throughout investigation and by any chance, we would find a crisis, then it would be immediately over for the very good reason that Obama Our Savior has been elected

Oh sorry, maybe... you were ironic ? I'm certainly not.

Sometimes its just good to have a laugh I reckon Bongo sits there all day hunting for the latest clip to add to his portfolio of doom.

[glyph]

I know that it's annoying as heck to bingobongo, and those others who are allergic to happiness...the Thai real estate market is even more resilient than expected. Did the "rice crisis" affect the market? Nope. How about the "hyperinflation" that he and others were braying about? Nope. How about the crumbling real estate prices through Europe, Asia, and the US? Nope. How about the "credit crunch" and the fallout of the banking and financial markets? Nope.

[midas]

I know that it's annoying as heck to bingobongo, and those others who are allergic to happiness...the Thai real estate market is even more resilient than expected. Did the "rice crisis" affect the market? Nope. How about the "hyperinflation" that he and others were braying about? Nope. How about the crumbling real estate prices through Europe, Asia, and the US? Nope. How about the "credit crunch" and the fallout of the banking and financial markets? Nope.

Looks like one person at least disagrees with you glyph

Thai property market slows

By Joyce Teo

If there had been optimism in the Thai property market, the global financial turmoil has swiftly turned the sentiment around.

Most property markets around the world have been hit and Thailand is no exception.

Worse, the domestic political turmoil and reports of recent unrest may have added to the worries of property investors.

Indeed, prices of luxury homes in Thailand - which were popular with affluent foreigners - look set to fall. Demand and prices are likely to slip, analysts say.

What this means is that those who are looking for a retirement home may want to wait, while those who have already bought property there may want to hang on and ride out the crisis.

A recent Citi report said the third quarter was the start of a cyclical downturn in the Thai residential property market, as sales slowed.

New launches, for instance, plunged by 55 per cent in September compared with last September's as the political turmoil, weaker consumer confidence and uncertain economic outlook took their toll, it said.

In Thailand, foreigners are not allowed to own land but they can buy a condo unit, albeit only up to 49 per cent of a development's saleable area. Based on a third quarter survey, out of 3,217 condo units in Bangkok sold to foreign buyers since mid-2005, Singaporean buyers accounted for 12 per cent.

Singaporean property agent James Tan invested in a $190,000 two-bedroom unit in a low-rise apartment block in Bangkok with capital appreciation in mind six years ago. He said he made a small profit but it was not worth the costs involved.

'Back in 2002, the only bank that could offer me a loan was United Overseas Bank. I did make $20,000 a few years later, but that's not counting the travel costs, interest costs and time taken to do the whole deal,' he said.

'I made three trips there just to sell it. It's much easier to invest in one here in Singapore.'

'Thailand will always be a destination for foreigners to live,' he said.

Some Thai locations will come under price pressure, notably the Pattaya high-end condominium sector and the Bangkok mid- to high-end condominium sector.

A luxurious two-bedroom apartment in Bangkok can cost around 140,000 baht (S$5,900) per sq m to 210,000 baht per sq m currently.

New launches will continue to slow down and, in some areas, there may even be a dearth of products for sale that could continue for another 18 months before things brighten up.

The Straits Times

Edited November 8, 2008 by midas

[MJP]

Anecdotal, but my sister-in-law recently gave up her job as an estate agent in Jomtien. Reckons the market is completely dead, sales and rentals.

[midas]

Anecdotal, but my sister-in-law recently gave up her job as an estate agent in Jomtien. Reckons the market is completely dead, sales and rentals.

MJP thanks for your info. But maybe glyph or Lenny can give your sister-in-law a job because

for them things are booming

[LennyW]

Anecdotal, but my sister-in-law recently gave up her job as an estate agent in Jomtien. Reckons the market is completely dead, sales and rentals.

MJP thanks for your info. But maybe glyph or Lenny can give your sister-in-law a job because

for them things are booming

Sorry, dont need any staff, all my assets are currently rented out!!!