Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?

[Yangpuss]

Well, all of this is well and good, Harmonica, but it doesn't answer my question. Why did you delete all your posts and how did you manage to delete the quotes of your posts in other people's posts???

As for me, I still have not made a move with my savings, mainly because of all this uncertainty. But I might do so soon.

Boy, the American public would have to be pretty brain dead to let Bush go at Iran after all he's done already. I'm not sure they are quite stupid enough to permit that. But they might be.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yangpuss,

I have not deleted anything -- thought that only mods could do that sort of thing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Okay, moderator, why did you delete Harmonica's many posts?

[~G~]

Just wait until things settle some in Iraq and the Israel/Palestine situation settles down some...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren might be around to see that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey, stay optimistic... It shouldn't take more than a hundrend years or so...

[~G~]

LaoPo,

Here's some more for you --

$200 Billion was the "smart" consensus shortly after the beginning of the Iraq war --  what about $2 Trillion,  all costs considered?  Finally they are admitting to $300 Billion on Iraq and Terror and putting out a new number everyday on the deficit.

Against this "elephant defecating in the trading pit" backdrop, where everyone is looking for someone else to blame (in Govt.), my call is for the US Dollar to continue northbound even if first makes a NEW low -- this is a medium to long-term call!!   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica,

Let me ask you this: Will you dare go on a 2-3 months holiday, with no online connection (or alternative forex data source), given your $ holdings?

Be honest.

[Ivan_Terrible]

Yangpuss,

Here are my 2 cents worth.

There are already 14 pages of replies to your question, so forgive me if someone has already told you this.

Before you can make any decisions, you need to evaluate your risk profile.

You can lose or make money on investments, including in foreign banks. How much would if change your life if you doubled your money? How much would it change your life if you lost half your money?

Being semi-retired, I expect that your future earnings will be quite small. As such, if you are unlucky and lose a lot, you do not have the opportunity to re-earn your money. If you were 25 years old, this would be different - if you lost everything you had, you would still had lots of time to make more money again.

Most likely, you will be interested in protecting your money as much as possible, and less interested in potentially making a lot (or losing a lot).

Keep this in mind when you consider what to do with your money. If this is all the money you have, and you won't be working again, I recommend you to be careful and conservative.

Now, there will always be currency risk, no matter how good you are at guessing the future. If you keep your savings money in one currency (US$) and all your living expenses are in another currency (baht, peso, rupiah, whatever), you will always have the risk that your savings will be worth less compared to your expenses. This risk doesn't go away if you move all your money to a european bank or any other bank, you just shift the risk from one currency to another.

To lower the risk, you can have your savings in several currencies. This is called to spread the risk. It is conservative, in the way that when currency fluctuations happen, you are likely to lose less money, and you are also likely to gain less money.

As someone recommended, have some money in Euro, some US$ and some GBP will greatly lower your risk.

As for having accounts in other currencies than US$ - you don't actually need to open an account in a British bank to have a GBP account, and you don't need an account somewhere in Euro to have a Euro-account. Many banks will let you have savings/investment accounts in several currencies. You can check with your current US bank if they will let you have an account in GBP or Euro. If that bank doesn't have this service, you can ask around in other banks in USA.

I assume you're a bit old, since you're semi-retired, and as you say, you don't know much about finance. Thus, you may feel more comfortable by having your savings money in American banks (assuming you are American), just spread them over a few different currencies.

You can of course go the route recommended by others here - by yuan, silver and such. Will you sleep peacefully at night if you do this? Are you comfortable gambling with your retirement money?

Hope this helps.

- Ivan

I'm from the US and quite worried about the falling value of the dollar. I'm semi-retired and live on my savings and interest from US banks.

I am wondering if I ought to  try to put my money into a foreign currency, but don't know how to do this.

It wouldn't be baht because I'm probably going to leave Thailand for elsewhere in Asia soon.

My money in the US is guaranteed by the government. If I invested in a foreign bank, can I still have a guarantee on my savings?

Are foreigners generally allowed to invest in foreign banks? I know I had no trouble opening a bank account in Thailand, but would the same be true in a European or Australian bank?

As you can see, I know very little about finances, and I know I should probably have made a move to foreign currencies earlier. Would welcome hearing from anyone who wants to offer advice on what US citizens might do in this situation. (I realize that some of you probably enjoy watching us squirm, but I am as critical of my government as many of you are, if not more so)

[Yangpuss]

Ivan,

That's good advice. Yes, what I'm most interested in is preserving my money. I have enough to be comfortable on, and that's what I want to keep.

However, I have the distinct feeling that keeping the money in US dollars is actually not conservative, it's risky. I have no confidence in the leadership of the US. In fact, I believe that Bush wants to destroy the dollar. It's obvious that he is discouraging other countries from buying dollars, because he wants the dollar to slide.

Now, you say that there are other US banks where you can have foreign currency accounts, but I am not aware of any but Everbank that allow this. Does anyone know what other banks do this?

Everbank has only about 15 different currencies you can buy, and the interest rates on their foreign currency accounts tend to be very low--in many cases, such as with the RMB account, the interest is zero.

I wouldn't buy euros or pounds now; they are at a high, and the dollar is at a low. I think it makes more sense to buy a currency that hasn't appreciated so much against the dollar.

But I have to weigh the interest rate I would get on the foreign currency account against everything else, too. Zero percent isn't a good rate. Right now, I live off my interest of around 4.5 percent average of my CDs. That's a lousy rate. There's also the chance that rates will go up quite a bit in the US, and I could get a higher rate if that happens.

It is very important to me to have my savings insured, so I guess that means I'm stuck with US banks.

But if Harmonica is right, maybe doing nothing is the best thing. Harmonica does seem like a very smart guy, and I personally agree with the contrarian approach (to practically everything). It's hard to believe, though, that the dollar could go up, much less WAY up, with the economic situation the way it is. Unless all the other countries bail the US out, which I think I heard they are talking about doing. But I think Bush will tell them not to, because he wants to bankrupt the country so that he can do his neocon "starve the beast" program--which means curtailing all programs that help people and enlarging the ones that help corporations.

So...that's how it seems to me at this moment in time...

[Ivan_Terrible]

Hi Yangpuss,

I am in no way saying that the advice you get from other people here are incorrect, this is just my personal opinion.

I am not American, I have actually never been to USA in my life So I am not sure which banks can offer you foreign currency accounts.

Banks have different types of accounts. Some types can be government guaranteed, some may not. Normal savings accounts are usually government guaranteed, I believe they are so in most of Western Europe. You may enquire with a few non-american banks to hear, e.g. HSBC.

Keeping your money in one currency is, as you say, not conservative. What I suggested is to spread them over a few. For example, you can have 1/3 in US$, 1/3 in Euro, 1/3 in GBP.

Taking a contrarian view sometimes pays off very nicely. But it does mean that you take the gamble that the majority of finance professionals, who does this for a living, who spend 10 hours per day on this, and who often have high education in this area, are wrong. You are betting that you guess better than they guess. Nobody knows the future, all professionals are wrong sometimes, and you may be right this time.

One difficult thing about financial markets is that predicting the longterm future from the past is extremely inaccurate. Yes, Euro and Pound is high versus the dollar, compared to last year and two years ago. But this doesn't mean they will go down in the future. There is no such equilibrium line on which currencies fluctuate around.

As a non-professional investor, to protect yourself from a devaluation of dollar (your savings money) compared to the currency of your future country, you can spread your savings over a few currencies, and you can convert some to the currency of the country you'd like to live in.

Yuan is a high risk currency. Are you interested in trading currencies (your savings money) on a daily or weekly basis? Or do you just want to put them somewhere safe, sleep peacefully at night, but accept that you miss out on opportunities of making gains.

As for interest rates, the issue is a bit tricky. To gain a true understanding of your returns, you need to take into account:

- interest rate on your investment

- possible exchange rate changes

- inflation

As an example, let's say you move to Vietnam and keep your savings in US$. If you get 4.5% interest rate, but the Dong appreciates by 4.5% at the same time, you get zero real interest. If your bank offer you 0% on a Euro account, but Euro appreciates by 4.5% over the $, you will have earned 4.5% when you convert your money back to $.

If this is interesting to you, you may want to buy an introductory text book in finance.

To make it simple, look up a few reputable banks and check if they offer foreign exchange accounts.

You can try:

http://www.offshore.hsbc.com/hsbc/main/ban.../interest-rates

http://www.bankofscotlandinternational.com...fixedrate.shtml

-Ivan

Ivan,

That's good advice. Yes, what I'm most interested in is preserving my  money. I have enough to be comfortable on, and that's what I want to keep.

However, I have the distinct feeling that keeping the money in US dollars is actually not conservative, it's risky. I have no confidence in the leadership of the US. In fact, I believe that Bush wants to destroy the dollar. It's obvious that he is discouraging other countries from buying dollars, because he wants the dollar to slide.

Now, you say that there are other US banks where you can have foreign currency accounts, but I am not aware of any but Everbank that allow this. Does anyone know what other banks do this?

Everbank has only about 15 different currencies you can buy, and the interest rates on their foreign currency accounts tend to be very low--in many cases, such as with the RMB account, the interest is zero.

I wouldn't buy euros or pounds now; they are at a high, and the dollar is at a low. I think it makes more sense to buy a currency that hasn't appreciated so much against the dollar.

But  I have to weigh the interest rate I would get on the foreign currency account against everything else, too. Zero percent isn't a good rate. Right now, I live off my interest of around 4.5 percent average of my CDs. That's a lousy rate. There's also the chance that rates will go up quite a bit in the US, and I could get a higher rate if that happens.

It is very important to me to have my savings insured, so I guess that means I'm stuck with US banks.

But if Harmonica is right, maybe doing nothing is the best thing. Harmonica does seem like a very smart guy, and I personally agree with the contrarian approach (to practically everything). It's hard to believe, though, that the dollar could go up, much less WAY up, with the economic situation the way it is. Unless all the other countries bail the US out, which I think I heard they are talking about doing. But I think Bush will tell them not to, because he wants to bankrupt the country so that he can do his neocon "starve the beast" program--which means curtailing all programs that help people and enlarging the ones that help corporations.

So...that's how it seems to me at this moment in time...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Harmonica]

LaoPo,

Here's some more for you --

$200 Billion was the "smart" consensus shortly after the beginning of the Iraq war --  what about $2 Trillion,  all costs considered?  Finally they are admitting to $300 Billion on Iraq and Terror and putting out a new number everyday on the deficit.

Against this "elephant defecating in the trading pit" backdrop, where everyone is looking for someone else to blame (in Govt.), my call is for the US Dollar to continue northbound even if first makes a NEW low -- this is a medium to long-term call!!    

Harmonica,

Let me ask you this: Will you dare go on a 2-3 months holiday, with no online connection (or alternative forex data source), given your $ holdings?

Be honest.

OK G, I shall give you an honest answer --- NO!! I would NOT dare to be disconnected from daily (desirable) or weekly (at the worst) updates to my stock market anlalysis software.

A daily glance(s) at the various charts I run -- total time 39 minutes/day.

Weekly review on Sunday night -- 60-120 minutes/week.

This is what I need -- and to do well I must have that connection.

[Harmonica]

LaoPo,

Here's some more for you --

$200 Billion was the "smart" consensus shortly after the beginning of the Iraq war --  what about $2 Trillion,  all costs considered?  Finally they are admitting to $300 Billion on Iraq and Terror and putting out a new number everyday on the deficit.

Against this "elephant defecating in the trading pit" backdrop, where everyone is looking for someone else to blame (in Govt.), my call is for the US Dollar to continue northbound even if first makes a NEW low -- this is a medium to long-term call!!    

Harmonica,

Let me ask you this: Will you dare go on a 2-3 months holiday, with no online connection (or alternative forex data source), given your $ holdings?

Be honest.

OK G, I shall give you an honest answer --- NO!! I would NOT dare to be disconnected from daily (desirable) or weekly (at the worst) updates to my stock market anlalysis software.

A daily glance(s) at the various charts I run -- total time 39 minutes/day.

Weekly review on Sunday night -- 60-120 minutes/week.

This is what I need -- and to do well I must have that connection.

Sorry, that's 30 and not 39 (odd!!)

[kreon]

A pic is worth ......   

Would some kind soul please show me how to bring a chart (as a jpeg, or whatever) into a reply -- all attempts thus far have failed!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

sample of $ index, from its lowest ever at 80.48

(31-12-04) back up to 83.64, my short term target would be back down to 82.50, btw way i like playing the spreads

Edited February 1, 2005 by RDN

[Harmonica]

A pic is worth ......   

Would some kind soul please show me how to bring a chart (as a jpeg, or whatever) into a reply -- all attempts thus far have failed!

sample of $ index, from its lowest ever at 80.48

(31-12-04) back up to 83.64, my short term target would be back down to 82.50, btw way i like playing the spreads

There's my buddy Kreon giving us a whiff of his other talents -- and you guys all thought he was just a humma-humma addict!

How, kreon? -- humor me, amigo!

Edited February 1, 2005 by RDN

[PeaceBlondie]

The charts I use are in the 38-42 baht to the dollar range. Why is that table twice as high - is it a different index altogether?

[RDN]

....How, kreon? -- humor me, amigo!   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1. Upload your picture to your favourite image hosting web site - I use ImageShack.

2. Put the image's URL - given by the hosting web site - into your post, with '[ IMG]http://" before it, and "[/ IMG]' after it.

or

If the picture is available on the web, put it's URL in your post like this:

[ IMG] http://customer1.barchart.com/custom/alaron/3728.gif [ / IMG]

- but without the spaces in [ IMG] and [ / IMG] that I put there to stop the codes working.

For convenience, you can use the "IMG" button above the box where you enter your post to do this automatically. Just copy the URL (in this case "customer1.barchart.com/custom/alaron/3728.gif") into the box that appears when you click the IMG button, and the reference gets formatted automatically - it puts "[ IMG]http://........[ /iMG]" around the URL and enters it into your post.

Good luck!

Edited February 1, 2005 by RDN

[LaoPo]

BILL GATES - DAVOS - SWITZERLAND - SUNDAY JAN 30-2005

"I am betting on a, further, lower US Dollar. It is scaring. We are in a situation which, in this scale, has never occurred before. Never ever there were such high debts in the worlds' most important reserve-valuta (US $)."

Also in the article:

The so called twin deficit is rising at train-speed and creates a downward 'push' on the value of the American greenback, the US $.

Jean Claude Trichet, President of The European Central Bank:

"The fast rise in value of the Euro is not welcome, and from the point of view of the economical come-back in the Eurozone, contra-productive."

LaoPo

[~G~]

Ivan,

That's good advice. Yes, what I'm most interested in is preserving my  money. I have enough to be comfortable on, and that's what I want to keep.

I agree with Ivan. In your situation you need to stick to low-risk investments. But just remember that low risk goes together with low potential yield. (by the way. it shouldn't be as low as 4.5%). Anyway, since you are looking to preserve your money above all things, you need low risk and low yield rather than high risk and high (positive or negative) yield.

I wouldn't buy euros or pounds now; they are at a high, and the dollar is at a low. I think it makes more sense to buy a currency that hasn't appreciated so much against the dollar.

I do not agree; you cannot say whether the $ is low or not based on the fact it was higher in the past. The $ does not remember where he has been. It just follows market forces.

But if Harmonica is right, maybe doing nothing is the best thing. Harmonica does seem like a very smart guy...

Harmonica is indeed a clever guy, but remember that he performs daily analysis of what happens in the markets in order to form his opinions. He buys and sells, keeping his hand on the pulse; He has to do that because his investments involve high risk (unbalanced portfolio). Of course, he gets a much higher yield as well, when his predictions are right. But as long as you are not prepared to invest this kind of work, I do not recommend to follow buy-sell tips without having that knowledge yourself.

Edited February 1, 2005 by ~G~

[kreon]

The charts I use are in the 38-42 baht to the dollar range.  Why is that table twice as high - is it a different index altogether?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

in simple stupid idiots slang, this an index based upon on a basket of currencies versus us$, so 100 is =, above that the $ is stronger, below that the $ is weaker

if you want to get technical, see your broker

[kreon]

A pic is worth ......   

Would some kind soul please show me how to bring a chart (as a jpeg, or whatever) into a reply -- all attempts thus far have failed!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

sample of $ index, from its lowest ever at 80.48

(31-12-04) back up to 83.64, my short term target would be back down to 82.50, btw way i like playing the spreads

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's my buddy Kreon giving us a whiff of his other talents -- and you guys all thought he was just a humma-humma addict!

How, kreon? -- humor me, amigo!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

welcome my friend

au revoir

[kreon]

Ivan,

That's good advice. Yes, what I'm most interested in is preserving my  money. I have enough to be comfortable on, and that's what I want to keep.

I agree with Ivan. In your situation you need to stick to low-risk investments. But just remember that low risk goes together with low potential yield. (by the way. it shouldn't be as low as 4.5%). Anyway, since you are looking to preserve your money above all things, you need low risk and low yield rather than high risk and high (positive or negative) yield.

I wouldn't buy euros or pounds now; they are at a high, and the dollar is at a low. I think it makes more sense to buy a currency that hasn't appreciated so much against the dollar.

I do not agree; you cannot say whether the $ is low or not based on the fact it was higher in the past. The $ does not remember where he has been. It just follows market forces.

But if Harmonica is right, maybe doing nothing is the best thing. Harmonica does seem like a very smart guy...

Harmonica is indeed a clever guy, but remember that he performs daily analysis of what happens in the markets in order to form his opinions. He buys and sells, keeping his hand on the pulse; He has to do that because his investments involve high risk (unbalanced portfolio). Of course, he gets a much higher yield as well, when his predictions are right. But as long as you are not prepared to invest this kind of work, I do not recommend to follow buy-sell tips without having that knowledge yourself.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

as the old adage goes,,,only play what you can afford to lose...the higher the risks the higher the gains.....but also the bigger the losses

btw i also gamble on sports, because you get all the info you need, live and in the press including inside tips, coaches report, players in and out, the %'s return on a yearly basis will be greater, with stocks, bonds etc. you will know &lt;deleted&gt; all

au revoir

[LaoPo]

BILL GATES - DAVOS - SWITZERLAND - SUNDAY JAN 30-2005

"I am betting on a, further, lower US Dollar. It is scaring. We are in a situation which, in this scale, has never occurred before. Never ever there were such high debts in the worlds' most important reserve-valuta (US $)."

Also in the article:

The so called twin deficit is rising at train-speed and creates a downward 'push' on the value of the American greenback, the US $.

Jean Claude Trichet, President of The European Central Bank:

"The fast rise in value of the Euro is not welcome, and from the point of view of the economical come-back in the Eurozone, contra-productive."

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is what I was getting at earlier... as I see it... It seems that the only people that are not worried about the USD fall it the USA itself. I see it, and they may well see it as a kind of 'defence' in this economic war. The fast rise in the Euro is not welcome in Eurozone... but most welcome by the USA.

It remains to be seen how the USA will deal with China in this war? My best guess is that the US will allow, even help China in its economic growth stampeed... and then somehow put the breaks on and force China to outrun itslef and tumble...

This will also help India and the EU and they will also "help" China in its tumble... China is trying to 'slow down' its own advancement but cannot... and nobody is going to help them slow down either... I see China tripping over itself by expanding too quickly and loosing 'control'.

It is an interesting Chess Game.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An interesting article, please read here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ifunds/050125/2005012...m_etf_jb_1.html

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

>>>>>It is an interesting Chess Game. <<<<<<<<

Its even more interesting when one takes into account the "madness of crowds" -- especially at turning points; which IMHO, I do believe we are at -- at this juncture; this, notwithstanding the slooooow formation of the current top in the stock markets, which as we well know, will foretell the direction of the Economy in the not too distant future.

In one-on-one Chess, its not just the moves -- its the emotion (revealed or hidden -- but detectable, especially under the table!) -- not written about in books -- does not mean its any less valid.

>>>>> I am not sure about 'conspiracy theories' but for sure there are conspiracies between nations, such as USA, Israel and UK and within the EU and within Asia China etc and also with India and various other countries... We are human. It is all about 'outgessing' and watching the 'moves' closely. And like I said, it is a fun game to observe <<<<<

There are also quite a few individuals who swear by 'conspiracy theories' in the stock/currency/metals/commodities markets -- one could shoot oneself in the foot and go lame right at the starting gate if one falls prey to believing such statements -- the only thing of importance in markets is the INTERACTION of the players -- i.e. the buyers and sellers -- they are the players -- the FOOTPRINTS of some of them, the heavy mothers who seem to control the outcome of the game, are readily seen via their buying and/or selling -- this, they have been unable to disguise, their great wealth and power notwithstanding. If/when the day comes that they can do so, I'll find a new game.

[Braccobaldo]

...very interesting debate, I enjoy read yours opinions....I think you just miss one very important factor about both stock exchange and currency market flutuations...simply CYCLES....ev'thing going up too much it will be down later and viceversa....U.S. deficit is not new and you don't have to worry for that, slowly, together with an economic improuvement USDollar will improuve...WHEN????

When noone expect it......

Sorry for my bad english and good luck for everybody.

[Braccobaldo]

...Ravisher, I agree with you 100%, for sure at the present time United states are the Boss and they have to play major role about the value of the dollar....sure cannot know when and if the dollar will start to grown up....both economics and political factors will determine that....at the moment they don't look so bad...elections in Irak are gone almost well, in Palestine we have good signs of improuvement, also US economy not going so bad....

On my side, in my portfolio I already sell some euros for buy dollars....maybe Harmonica will not agree with my choice.....

Best regards...

[Braccobaldo]

...as usual I agree with you, Ravisher....I really, really hope that "winds of war" stay away from this earth, we are just recovering....

...and about charts and analisys I think are more useful regarding the past rather than the future...

It will be an interesting year, this 2005, many questions on the table....on the economic side first of all "the chinese challenge"...do they will revalue the yuan??? If yes it would be a small earthquake and new equilibres needs to be find...what I don't imagine is if about this US will play a role or not...China will decide alone about their currency??...or there will be some secret talk with US???

...we will see, if we will be lucky enough...

Back to the Euro/Dollar challenge...January ends with the Dollar gaining 4%...from 1.355 to 1.305....now going to see February, carnival's month....

Bye,bye

[Harmonica]

...very interesting debate, I enjoy read yours opinions....I think you just miss one very important factor about both stock exchange and currency market flutuations...simply CYCLES....ev'thing going up too much it will be down later and viceversa....U.S. deficit is not new and you don't have to worry for that, slowly, together with an economic improuvement USDollar will improuve...WHEN????

When noone expect it......

Sorry for my bad english and good luck for everybody.

Bracco,

Welcome to the discussion and may it continue to enlighten us all and provide both entertainment and of course, profits!!!

Miss CYCLES? Not a chance -- its part of my arsenal -- use that aspect of Technical Analysis quite extensively. However, Classical Tech. Analysis is my bread and butter forte.

>>>>> USDollar will improuve...WHEN????

When noone expect it...... <<<<<<

Such as RIGHT NOW -- at last count there were only (?) people worldwide who are calling for a USD major move to the upside. NOBODY is expecting it!!!! Ah!!!!!

To state your "pearl" in another way, for market bottoms -- "then when everybody has given up and SOLD, the market will quietly make a bottom" -- but only Harmonica and a few others will notice it -- most won't and will go on being bearish when they should be bullish! heheheh,

.. and conversely for market TOPS, "when the bulls are charging full speed ahead and everybody, including taxi-drivers, are ALL in the market and winning easy money (or so it seems), the market will sputter, for there is no one left to buy -- with no fuel and running only on fumes, the market will QUIETLY register a TOP" --- Harmonica and a few others will have already seen this coming and will have extracted all major capital well before the top and might only TRADE the impending doom short-term. heheheh!!

Playing the markets is anything but easy -- but well worth the learning, effort and skill developed to survive in them. Getting buggered now and then is part of the game, and as long one doesn't start to like it , one can develop a strategy to navigate.

[Harmonica]

Greetings Rav; any indian food lately? Ever tried Masala Pomfrets or perhaps, Goa Prawn curry/rice? Perhaps some Caju Feni to wash it all down?

>>>>> I don't think the 'only' thing of importance is INTERACTION of the players... surely the 'heavy mothers' can, and do influence/control swings, directions etc etc and can and do mislead the masses and drive the small fish into the nets... Although they may not be able disguise themselves completely... by the time they are recognised it is often too late for the small fry to escape. <<<<<

Actually Rav, IMHO it doesn't get any simpler or more basic than SUPPLY & DEMAND -- that is what I meant by INTERACTION of the players.

For example, if I'm considering whether to buy Intel shares --- if I observe that the stock is in an uptrend and has been so for sometime and that the volume is strong and that shares are swooped up as soon as they are offered (in real-time), I would conclude that INVESTORS/TRADERS are demanding more, but SELLERS are more and more reluctant to sell, except of course at higher prices (=profits) -- I don't care whether GW Bush is doing what, or where the Deficit is and especially where China and India figure in this equation ..

What this means is that ALL 'knowns and unknowns' (except acts of God, and perhaps, Alan Greenspan are already figured into the price at any given instant in the time stream. Nothing else matters -- since we are talking about just one thing -- PRICE!!!!! !

>>>>> agree... but what I do not know right now... is, 'who' will decide, 'who' will force it? The USA or some other Player/s in the Game? I can only guess, it will be the USA.

And I don't know 'when'. Can only guess between July 2005 and Jan 2006.<<<<<<

The traders in the PIT will force it based on their COLLECTIVE assessment of supply/demand and of course, as stated above, this outcome will reflect ALL the FUNDAMENTAL points that you and others here have brought up thus far in this discussion.

Regards

[LivinLOS]

To state your "pearl" in another way, for market bottoms -- "then when everybody has given up and SOLD, the market will quietly make a bottom" -- but only Harmonica and a few others will notice it --  most won't and will go on being bearish when they should be bullish!  heheheh, 

But the point is not only is the world holding enormous dollar reserves they are being forced (through trade deficit) to take more.. The EZ credit policies of Alan 'bubbles' Greenspan have created a system where American consumers simply borrow to spend.. That money goes (by and large) overseas where foriegners are forced to hold it..

Then the dollar obviously falls (more of them being printed as fast as the presses allow) and simple common sense says that when there is more of something its value goes down.. So now these countries holding huge stockpiles are getting screwed as the dollars they are forced to take payment in fall..

Would you allow this long term on a personal level ??

The idea that everyone has given up and sold is preposterous.. They are being forced (if they want access to the American consumer, the 'engine of growth' for the last few years) to take dollars.. and in turn they will be forced to sell those dollars to protect themselves..

Buffet has recently increased his non USD currency holdings from 13 bil to 20 bil his comments are

"I think, over time, unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down....I don't know when it happens. I don't have any idea whether it will be this month or this year or next year, but we are force-feeding dollars on to the rest of the world at the rate of close to a couple billion dollars a day, and that's going to weigh on the dollar."

This is not about sentiment.. This is not about 'perception of America'.. This is not something that cant be stopped or controlled without drastically increasing US savings rates and or balancing the budget..

You want to argue against Buffet with purely a contrarian idioligy (I have often been a contrarian investor, but when there were fundamental reasons for it) but no basis of why this time the herd is wrong..

Edited February 3, 2005 by LivinLOS

[Harmonica]

To state your "pearl" in another way, for market bottoms -- "then when everybody has given up and SOLD, the market will quietly make a bottom" -- but only Harmonica and a few others will notice it --  most won't and will go on being bearish when they should be bullish!   heheheh, 

But the point is not only is the world holding enormous dollar reserves they are being forced (through trade deficit) to take more.. The EZ credit policies of Alan 'bubbles' Greenspan have created a system where American consumers simply borrow to spend.. That money goes (by and large) overseas where foriegners are forced to hold it..

Then the dollar obviously falls (more of them being printed as fast as the presses allow) and simple common sense says that when there is more of something its value goes down.. So now these countries holding huge stockpiles are getting screwed as the dollars they are forced to take payment in fall..

Would you allow this long term on a personal level ??

The idea that everyone has given up and sold is preposterous.. They are being forced (if they want access to the American consumer, the 'engine of growth' for the last few years) to take dollars.. and in turn they will be forced to sell those dollars to protect themselves..

Buffet has recently increased his non USD currency holdings from 13 bil to 20 bil his comments are

"I think, over time, unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don't see how the dollar avoids going down....I don't know when it happens. I don't have any idea whether it will be this month or this year or next year, but we are force-feeding dollars on to the rest of the world at the rate of close to a couple billion dollars a day, and that's going to weigh on the dollar."

This is not about sentiment.. This is not about 'perception of America'.. This is not something that cant be stopped or controlled without drastically increasing US savings rates and or balancing the budget..

You want to argue against Buffet with purely a contrarian idioligy (I have often been a contrarian investor, but when there were fundamental reasons for it) but no basis of why this time the herd is wrong..

>>>>> You want to argue against Buffet with purely a contrarian idioligy (I have often been a contrarian investor, but when there were fundamental reasons for it) but no basis of why this time the herd is wrong..<<<<<<<<

Actually I am arguing against not just Warren, but against Bill Gates as well.

Check out this excerpt from Bloomberg:

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar can add the world's two richest men to its list of detractors, something that's raising eyebrows here in Asia.

Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp., left no doubt of that, telling television host Charlie Rose ``I'm short the dollar.'' The world's wealthiest man called the record $7.62 trillion federal debt ``a bit scary'' and lamented that the U.S. is in ``uncharted territory'' fiscally.

And he's right. Just ask Warren Buffett, the world's No. 2 moneyman, who has been buying foreign currencies since 2002, citing concerns about the U.S. deficit. The bet is paying off, too. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reaped a $412 million pretax gain on the trade in the third quarter of 2004.

Gates and Buffett may not be reading from the same playbook as George Soros, though their investments bear some similarities. Financier Soros has long since given up on the world's reserve currency, and U.S. President George W. Bush's competence on economic matters.

---- end of excerpt ----

So, to reiterate my position -- we have now established that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, the world's #2 and #1 richest men are LEADING the HERD of wildebeast BEARISH the Dollar and selling, selling, selling!!!!! On the flip side, there is me, little Harmonica, with not even a porcelain pot to piss in and I'm saying BUY, BUY, BUY the US Dollar bigtime and put it under the mattress and retire to Thailand!

[Harmonica]

>>>>>> Buffet has recently increased his non USD currency holdings from 13 bil to 20 bil and ..... <<<<<<<<

Balderdash! The $20 billion bet has to be put in context. Berkshire has a huge portfolio of investments that includes $40 billion of Treasury securities. Which is the bigger port? .... So the currency play is a partial hedge of a large position that can be read as BULLISH on the U.S. Got that?

Then on Jan 10th, Warren was asked -- "So, Warren, what are you buying now? And what's your prediction for the dollar next year"? His answers, respectively: "No comment, and I'm not making one."

My interpretation -- Warren's buying, no question about it; but more to the point, I've bought and still recommend buying, regardless what Warren is or isn't doing!

>>>>>>>This is not about sentiment.. This is not about 'perception of America'.. This is not something that cant be stopped or controlled without drastically increasing US savings rates and or balancing the budget..<<<<<<<<

It has EVERYTHING to do with SENTIMENT!!!! .. and then some!

[Dickie]

would not be a good option... I see no alternative than a pre-emptive atomic response... and it would have to be totally devastating!  Failing all out war, it would end up with a 'cold war' and an 'arms race'. Then see the dollar rise!

Interesting....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For a country the size of China to devastate it with nukes would cause a bit of a climate shift. The countries nearby would be poisoned, the world would be in a uproar. I think the Chinese in the US would have a few things to say about it as well.

The Taiwan problem is bigger than just shaking swords, gawd knows what would happen if it was annexed by China.

[thaistick]

Sure.

America will want to lose a billion and a half Big Mac eaters and Coke drinkers.

And lose billions in Boeing 7E7 orders.

And have empty Walmarts with empty shelves.

And find out that China has enough nukes to take out every American city.

China doesn't need America like America needs China who also holds their dollar IOU's.

And the rest of the world doesn't want America.

China will be this century's economic superpower while America will be relegated to just another third world banana republic in the Americas.If it survives the million LA riots and the terrorists.

Edited February 3, 2005 by thaistick

[Harmonica]

>>>>>>Harmonica, You may be right. But... if it were so easy and so obvious, we'd all be stone rich... but we ain't. <<<<<<<

Its never so easy and definitely never obvious -- stone rich? .. maybe in the movies, but in real life, there are many -- many, many fellows who make a good, solid, consistent living year in and year out regardless of the direction of the overall market & NOT placing more than perhaps 5-8% of total capital at risk via speculation. I'm one of them and I ain't rich, never was and (?) perhaps never will be. But on percentage gain terms I can hold my own against any man (or woman)!