Bird Flu Warning

[twix38]

Is Thaksin playing fast and loose with public health safety in his efforts not to dent tourism?

As a businessman first and foremost I don't trust him AT ALL with my safety. He is preoccupied with any inaction that safeguards the economy and does not cause panic if at all possible and cover ups where necessary when acting too late. Seen it all before, even on this very topic when hewas so slow to admit the initial problem.

The WHO expect a Pandemic starting in Asia and are warning governments to stockpile vaccine (not ready yet) and as a first line of defence antiviral medicine, Oseltamivir. This goes under the trade name of Tamiflu and may just keep you alive.

The mortality rate is around 75%. No! that's not a joke. 3 out of 4 people die!!! Statistically Pandemics come along every 25 or 30 years or so and we are well overdue.

In todays Bangkok Post was the following comment about Thaksin's 1 week delay to decide wheather to cull Ducks which do not exhibit the symptoms, but do carry H5N1 or Bird Flu.

"Prasert Thongcharoen, president of the Influenza Foundation Thailand, said he was disappointed in the government's decision, saying it would send the wrong message about the risk of virus transmission among humans."

For any cautious people out there, get yourself some Tamiflu. It's made by Roche and I am not a shareholder.

I have some and as a cautious man I would not be without the only current defence in a scary story that may well unfold, starting in Asia. BTW, I live in England.

Edited February 16, 2005 by twix38

[george]

What is Tamiflu? A vaccine for bird flu?

[twix38]

What is Tamiflu? A vaccine for bird flu?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, it is not a vaccine. It is an Antiviral. It works by blocking the receptors in cells in your body (i.e. taking the link that the bird flu virus would occupy in the cell). It does not kill the H5N1 virus, but it stops it reproducing and infecting new cells. The infected cell will die, but if taken within the first 2 days of symptoms there is a fair chance you can survive.

It is the only medication recommended by the WHO, until a vaccine is readily available and enough of it. This is all down to timing. What happens first.

[NarrLing]

Bird flu cases 'underestimated'

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/health/4270755.stm

Published: 2005/02/17 13:45:37 GMT

The spread of the deadly bird flu virus may have been underestimated because of a misunderstanding of how it affects the body, British scientists have said.

Oxford University experts studying deaths in Vietnam suggest the disease can attack all parts of the body, not just the lungs as had been thought.

They told the New England Journal of Medicine they also believe humans could pass the virus on to each other.

So far, there have been 42 bird flu deaths, all in Asian countries.

But the Oxford University scientists say their findings suggests the number of cases of human infection with the virus may have been under-estimated.

The World Health Organization said it would change its definition of what constituted a bird flu infection.

So far, the WHO says there have been 55 confirmed cases of bird flu in humans, and 42 deaths.

However, experts believe millions could be at risk if the virus acquires the ability to jump from person to person by combining with a form of human flu to make a new, mutated, version.

The researchers examined the deaths of two young children - a brother and sister - who lived in a single room with their parents in southern Vietnam.

They were admitted to hospital suffering from gastro-enteritis and acute encephalitis, which are common ailments in the country.

Neither displayed respiratory problems, which have been considered typical in cases of avian flu.

Widespread attack

But analysis revealed the four-year-old boy had traces of the virus in his faeces, blood, nose and in the fluid around the brain.

This indicates the virus - known as H5N1 - can attack all parts of the body, not just the lungs.

It is suspected his nine-year-old sister, who died two weeks earlier in February last year, was also suffering from the virus.

The lead researcher is Dr Menno de Jong, a virologist at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit who is based at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh.

He said: "This illustrates that when someone is suffering from any severe illness we should consider if avian flu might be the cause.

"It may be possible to treat but you have to act in the early stages, so awareness of the whole spectrum of symptoms in an emerging disease like avian flu is vital.

"It appears this virus is progressively adapting to an increasing range of mammals in which it can cause infection, and the range of disease in humans is wide and clearly includes encephalitis."

Different manifestations

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust's Vietnam unit, said: "This latest work underlines the possibility that avian influenza can present itself in different ways.

"The main focus has been on patients with respiratory illnesses but clearly that's not the only thing we should be looking for.

"Therefore the number of cases of H5N1 may have been underestimated."

Dr Farrar said the presence of the virus in the faeces suggested that it could be spread from person to person - especially where people are living in crowded conditions.

It is not believed that either of the children passed the virus on, but it is also not clear how they contracted it.

However, the girl often swam in a nearby canal which may have been contaminated by ducks carrying the virus.

Dick Thompson, of the World Health Organization, told the BBC the findings were significant.

He said: "It means the range of illnesses we have been looking for when considering a diagnosis of avian flu will now be expanded.

"We will have to change the way we conduct our investigations, the management of hospital patients and even the way we deal with their bodily secretions."

[pautai]

Thursday, 17th February 2005

'Build up bird 'flu vaccine now'

GOVERNMENTS should consider stockpiling bird flu vaccines now in preparation for a pandemic, according to experts.

A World Health Organisation (WHO) report is expected to warn next month that a serious global outbreak of the virus among humans is becoming more likely.

Previously the WHO believed vaccines should only be produced when a pandemic emerged, because they needed to be based on the precise strain of the virus responsible.

But Klaus Stohr, head of the influenza team, told the New Scientist magazine that slow progress in eradicating the H5N1 version of bird flu among poultry in Asia, and a growing number of human cases, had heightened concerns.

Mr Stohr said: "When we realised H5N1 was not going to be eradicated in poultry in Asia for at least another couple of years, that made the risk of H5 (the human strain) much higher."

The US, Italy and France are among countries who have already ordered stocks of the H5 vaccine.

Mr Stohr added: "This is an option only for affluent countries, and then for a fraction of their population. It won't change a lot at the global level."

More than 30 people have died from avian 'flu in Asia in a year, after it swept through the bird population.

Humans are thought to have contracted the virus due to proximity with infected birds, but the UK government says the chance of it spreading to animals in the UK is "low".

[twix38]

It seems to be not if, but when.

Bird Flu topic on the BBC and ITV news last night with the new developments and advice that although governments stockpilling vaccine, the vaccine may well be useless because nobody can predict the strain and evolution of the virus until it has arrived.

Also Newsnight on BBC2 highlighted the fact that the W.H.O. had taken the unpresidented step of actually recommending that the stockpilling of Flu vaccine and of Tamiflu should occur, as it is all we currently have. The manufacturer, Roche, are stepping up production as governments place orders and the UK government are in talks. France, Italy and USA have already placed orders.

The mortality rate was quoted as high as 80%. Fortunately you have to catch it first and I think I am right in saying between 25% to 35% of the worlds population would be expected to catch it, so that does leave most people flu free. However, millions would catch it and estimates vary on the deathtoll with a minimum 2 million worldwide and the W.H.O. projecting between 2 and 7 million as a conservative estimate worldwide.

Edited February 18, 2005 by twix38

[h5n1]

its just like everything else in asia. the issue is ignored until it is so overwhelming and then the statement is ....hey, shix happens...

if the vaccine does not make it to market within the year - things could become quite grave.

who states numbers of deaths could potentially be in the millions on this one folks.

if you are healthy, good immune system, dont smoke, eat healthy food and take vitamins your odds of dying from the illness are remote. while virulent, it is just influenza after all.

most lives the flu claims have compromised immune systems. if you are 20-60, healthy, non smoker, eat well, take vitamins -you should be ok even in the middle of a pandemic (not to say you might not get very ill).

[Patong Bob]

Do you remember a few years ago, when SARS was going to wipe us all out ? Or the Year 2000 bug, which caused all those planes to fall out of the sky and civilisation stopped ?

Chill out, have a cold beer. Statistics prove cold beer kills chicken flu.

[bartender100]

Is "Tamiflu" on the market yet?,can you but it in Thailand?

[xbusman]

Here is where a forum like this can make a huge differance. I dont want the cheapest stores to find Vegamite or the best pizza, what I would really like to hear of is a pharmacy that stocks and sells Tamiflu. I think its critical to lay in a supply. If anyone can find such a pharmacy, please post its location. I have checked about 20 pharmacies around Sukhumvit and found nothing.

[twix38]

Ok,

Firstly it is NOT true that fit healthy young and middle aged people have nothing to fear. Infact they are disproportionatly worse off overalll. The reason is that the better your immune system the stronger the response to the virus and the more chance of dying because you die from the subsequent secondary complications too as you battle to fight it off. This is documented by the W.H.O. who point out that in some cases having a weaker immune system which does not over-react is a good thing.

SARS was whipped up by the media. It was never going to spread like Flu and this Bird Flu has the potential to kill 3 out of 4 who catch it. The CDC (Centre for Disiese Control in USA) expect a great chance of a Pandemic next year, it could come earlier.

Tamiflu is all there currently is to assist, until a vaccine comes along.

I suggest you visit an international hospital or get friend's in Europe to send you some. The internet is useless as companies do not have stock. It is unobtainable unless someone knows different?

My aim was to inform and make people aware as it may never happen, but it very well could do, and possibly soon.

This topic should really not be tucked away on this forum only. In the current environment it should be a pinned or highlighted topic. It's not going to go away and until there is a vaccine it is a real and present danger to Asia and the wider world.

Edited February 22, 2005 by twix38

[toastwars]

Here is where a forum like this can make a huge differance. I dont want the cheapest stores to find Vegamite or the best pizza, what I would really like to hear of is a pharmacy that stocks and sells Tamiflu. I think its critical to lay in a supply. If anyone can find such a pharmacy, please post its location. I have checked about 20 pharmacies around Sukhumvit and found nothing.

Loading up with sythetic antivirals aint going to help, health eating and moderatin will stand you in better stead, "my body is a temple, I leave my shoes on the outside and don't fill it full of crap"

[twix38]

Here is where a forum like this can make a huge differance. I dont want the cheapest stores to find Vegamite or the best pizza, what I would really like to hear of is a pharmacy that stocks and sells Tamiflu. I think its critical to lay in a supply. If anyone can find such a pharmacy, please post its location. I have checked about 20 pharmacies around Sukhumvit and found nothing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Loading up with sythetic antivirals aint going to help, health eating and moderatin will stand you in better stead, "my body is a temple, I leave my shoes on the outside and don't fill it full of crap"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ridiculous!! Tamiflu is only taken when you have the Flu and clear symptoms (fever etc) It is not taken otherwise and sits in the draw as a means of last resort at the time of last resort. It is all there is right now, so you keep pumping yourself full of food and moderation.

[toastwars]

Doom dooom DOOOOOOM!!!! What don't kill you makes you stronger and I can't advocate a little "human pruning" strongly enough

[lopburi3]

Believe twix38 is correct and all your good eating and other virtuous traits are not going to help much if this becomes the next pandemic.

But if it does happen the likelihood is that other treatments may well be effective and almost surly the mortality rate will be much reduced - it is going to have to change and that change is likely to make it more like other human varieties I believe (but am not taking with any special knowledge on that).

Tamiflu is sold as both a preventive and treatment for all forms of flu and if taken before or during the first two days seems to be effective. But cost is over US$100 per ten pill/five day treatment. Believe there is also an inhaler made in Oz that has appeared to be effective but use is rather complex and it does not seem to be getting any press now.

[toastwars]

Believe twix38 is correct and all your good eating and other virtuous traits are not going to help much if this becomes the next pandemic. 

But if it does happen the likelihood is that other treatments may well be effective and almost surly the mortality rate will be much reduced - it is going to have to change and that change is likely to make it more like other human varieties I believe (but am not taking with any special knowledge on that).

Tamiflu is sold as both a preventive and treatment for all forms of flu and if taken before or during the first two days seems to be effective.  But cost is over US$100 per ten pill/five day treatment.  Believe there is also an inhaler made in Oz that has appeared to be effective but use is rather complex and it does not seem to be getting any press now.

I bet some drug exec is peeing his pants with excitement at all the paniced masses buying the new "life saver" I never heard of anyone surviving life yet, so I can think of better thing to worry about and spend my cash on

[xbusman]

Yes, The Who is confident that mortality rates will be greatly reduced with only some 20 to 50 million people dying. I have met and spoken with survivors of the Great Flu pandemic of 1917, Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it. (George Santayana), and the devastation was horrible, far worse than any war on this planet to date. While some people might feel better off if the diet and exercise gits all succumb to the next pandemic when some simple precautions might have helped, I hate to see the weak minded victimized by life.

How scared does a government have to be to conduct a 24 hour complete and total destruction of domestic bird such as Hong Kong did back in 97. For all the hysteria in press, believe me when I tell you that they are toning it way way down, the people in the know at places like WHO and CDC are building bomb shelters and stocking them with food.

Toast wars, I am going to lay in a stock of Tamiflu if I have to fly to Roche in France myself. I will have some for sale if you ever need any. I am absolutely praying you are right and it will be the worst investment I have ever made.

[udon]

Risk of deadly global epidemic as bid to halt spread of bird flu is foiled

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor Indy UK

20 February 2005

Thailand, one of two countries at the centre of the bird flu outbreak, is refusing to act against its spread, scuppering attempts to stop a devastating pandemic expected to kill tens of millions of people around the globe.

An emergency plan to tackle the disease, drawn up by the country's Deputy Prime Minister, would have involved slaughtering more than ten million ducks and chickens, and distributing face masks to protect people from catching the flu. But it has been rejected on the grounds that it could alarm the public.

The country's decision contrasts with the effective action being taken in nearby Vietnam, the only nation to be hit harder than Thailand, which has slowed the spread of the disease by killing 1.5 million birds since December.

A ban on raising poultry came into force in the capital, Ho Chi Minh City, last week. A major UN conference called to consider how to combat the disease opens in the city on Wednesday. Although outbreaks of the disease continue in Vietnam, it appears to have been beaten, at least temporarily, in seven of the country's provinces.

Twenty-nine people are so far confirmed dead in Vietnam and 12 in Thailand, but the virus, codenamed H5N1, has yet to mutate into a form which can spread rapidly among people. Experts agree that the best way of preventing this is to stamp the disease out among poultry.

Hong Kong is thought to have averted a worldwide catastrophe in 1997, after 18 people were affected, by slaughtering its entire poultry population in only three days.

Thailand's decision not to act, the personal initiative of its Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, marks the second time in two months that it has failed to take life-saving action in the face of a looming disaster. On Boxing Day, it was one of only two Indian Ocean countries to receive an immediate warning of the tsunami. But it failed to relay this to its coastal people or to tourists on the beaches until after long after the wave hit. Experts suggested that the warning was delayed because it might damage tourism.

Similar charges are being made this weekend, after the failure to act on bird flu. The Prime Minister intervened to stop the $124.7m (£66m) plan, after the cabinet had already approved it, concerned that it would alarm the public and other countries.

The government says that it needs more information. Yesterday it announced a two-year research programme into developing a vaccine against the disease.

Flu pandemics sweep through the world three or four times a century, and experts agree that a new one is long overdue. They happen when new viruses emerge to which no one is immune.

Most pandemics come from birds and start in China and South-east Asia. The crucial development comes when a patient suffering from ordinary flu also catches the bird flu, thus enabling the two viruses to mix and create a highly infectious, deadly strain.

Bird flu is causing particular alarm, since it has killed more than three-quarters of all the people so far known to have caught it. They have mainly contracted it directly from chickens, suggesting that a new pandemic would surpass the last one in 1918, which killed 50 million people worldwide. Like the 1918 strain, the disease appears to target healthy teenagers and young adults.

Experts warn that because of air travel the pandemic could reach Britain within a day of breaking out in the Far East. A drug that can treat it, oseltamivir, already exists, and is mainly marketed as Tamiflu. But although other countries are rushing to stockpile Tamiflu, the Department of Health says it will make no decision before the spring.

23 February 2005 09:24

[h5n1]

This is documented by the W.H.O. who point out that in some cases having a weaker immune system which does not over-react is a good thing.

------------------------------------------------

please support this by providing a link. it runs contrary to common medical knowledge.

it is now said that even light smoking compromises the immune system. the notion that a smoking, drinking overweight, poor eater that is vitamin deficient OR the malnourished, smoking, drinking, vitamin deficient peasant is better off than a healthy western male i think is a bit mad - but i will defer to your info and the link.

barring the issue of fierce virulence, if you are not in direct contact with poultry you also have much less to be concerned with. no, of course, we have yet to see if/how the virus mutates - but take for granted some guy living in talayview2 and eating farang food daily in western restaurants has much less to worry then a guy living in korat, eating local food and living next to a chicken farm. these are odds mind you. of course if one is exposed to the disease, all are at least at one level equally suspetable (sp). yes, flu can and will spread round the world but as i stated before regarding immune systems - you will have to answer why the bulk of the deaths will be in third world if all are = at risk.

tamiflu: http://tamiflu.pharmacy-world.biz/tamiflu_ingredients/

will it work w/ h5n1 - who knows???

asian govts will never do what is right, cull all the birds, clean the areas, quarntine people, provide vaccine, etc... so in the end, if you are really concerned i would leave asia for a western country.

there will be no warning as we all know. the newspaper will read -100 dead in korat of h5n1, no end in sight. taksin drops ball yet again...nothing to see here, move along...

what is sad is that people will die from this selfishness and greed - hey, just like george bush!

Edited February 23, 2005 by h5n1

[xbusman]

When it jumps, I don't think it will much matter if you live in Korat or Kentucky. The advantage of living in the west is they might be able to slow the transfer (stop international travel) and quarantine the initial infection for a short time. So living in the west you might get a week or two before it escapes there. Living here in SE asia with the government trying to keep a lid on information, you might have it before its announced to have jumped.

I have read a little on various opinions regarding Tamiflu, I dont think anyone is 100% sure it will help but everyone is pretty much agreed its the only thing available that might help. If thats the best odds I can get I think I will buy a little to have on hand.

[h5n1]

twix38: "Infact they are disproportionatly worse off overalll. "

rubbish. here are stats from cdc. it would appear the young (and eldest) are indeed most at risk. my hunch is those in the middle had direct contact w/ the birds although i have no facts on this, nor am i an epidemiologist.

2, M

5, M

6, M

6, M

6, M

7, M

13, M

27, F

31, M

46, F

39, F

58, F

as for my comment about villages/cities:

"All 12 confirmed case-patients resided in VILLAGES that experienced abnormal chicken deaths"....of course, when this thing breaks loose, youll see it everywhere.

credit where due twix:

Treatment for all patients included broad-spectrum antimicrobial drugs aiming to cover most of the usual and unusual respiratory pathogens. Eight patients were treated with corticosteroid drugs, including 2 patients who survived and 6 patients who died. Seven patients were treated with the neuraminidase inhibitor OSELTAMIVIR at various stages of illness.

> not posting this just to slag you twix.

BUT...the notion that a weaker immune system is a 'better' to combat the (any) virus - you have to post the link, that is just tripe. by reason then if you abuse your body you will be in better stead?

hey people - this is REALLY, REALLY nasty, DEADLY. you should go have a look at the link. if you are thinking about a headache and runny nose -get a clue.

if you are a person who is not in good shape, i would make preparation to be near healthcare facilities if you are staying in thailand. returning home would not be a bad idea either - have a look before poo-pooing this statement:

Fever was often the first symptom, and dyspnea often occurred a median of 5 days after illness onset (range 1–16). During the initial evaluation at hospital, all patients were found to have fever, cough, and dyspnea, and almost half had myalgia and diarrhea. The hospital course was characterized by intermittent high fevers and persistent cough productive of thick sputum. One patient had a small amount of hemoptysis. Later in the course of the disease, organ failure or dysfunction was commonly observed, including respiratory failure in 9 (75%) patients, cardiac failure in 5 (42%), and renal dysfunction in 4 (33%).

if you are a smoker, youre screwed. so keep smokin them spags up homies! twix says thems healthy!

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no02/04-1061.htm

Edited February 23, 2005 by h5n1

[Rinrada]

WHO warns of bird flu pandemic

The virus is usually passed to humans from infected birds

World health officials have issued their strongest warning yet about the global threat posed by bird flu.

The world is now in the gravest possible danger of a human flu pandemic triggered by the virus, Dr Shigeru Omi told a conference in Vietnam.

The World Health Organisation fears bird flu may get deadlier if it mutates into a form that could be easily transmitted between humans.

Thirteen people have died in Vietnam from the virus since December.

Governments need to take quick action to control the virus's spread, Dr Omi added.

Bird flu is proving resistant to treatments and has appeared in animals including cats and tigers which had not been considered susceptible to the virus.

Last year bird flu swept through poultry in a dozen countries and killed 45 people.

About 140 million birds died or were slaughtered in an effort to contain the outbreak.

"If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous," Dr Omi said.

Dr Omi told the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization conference in Ho Chi Minh City "the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic".

Such outbreaks usually occur every 20 to 30 years, he said.

The last one was nearly 40 years ago, so by this measure an outbreak was overdue.

Duty to help

Dr Omi said avian flu had the potential to kill more people than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed about 800 people two years ago.

He said WHO was calling on governments to develop contingency plans in case of an outbreak.

Anti-viral drugs

The WHO has previously called on governments around the world to stockpile vaccines so they would be prepared should the feared pandemic occur.

The United States has contracted for 4 million vaccine doses, while Italy and France anticipate stockpiling 2 million doses each.

In the UK, the Department of Health has said it has no plans to stockpile vaccines, because of the difficulty of designing one in advance which will act against a mutated virus.

However, it has said it will provide anti-viral drugs to key groups such as health workers and emergency services.

UN officials said it was the common duty of governments around the world to provide practical support to South East Asia to help tackle the disease.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4289637.stm

[twix38]

twix38: "Infact they are disproportionatly worse off overalll. "

rubbish. here are stats from cdc. it would appear the young (and eldest) are indeed most at risk. my hunch is those in the middle had direct contact w/ the birds although i have no facts on this, nor am i an epidemiologist.

2, M

5, M

6, M

6, M

6, M

7, M

13, M

27, F

31, M

46, F

39, F

58, F

as for my comment about villages/cities:

"All 12 confirmed case-patients resided in VILLAGES that experienced abnormal chicken deaths"....of course, when this thing breaks loose, youll see it everywhere.

credit where due twix:

Treatment for all patients included broad-spectrum antimicrobial drugs aiming to cover most of the usual and unusual respiratory pathogens. Eight patients were treated with corticosteroid drugs, including 2 patients who survived and 6 patients who died. Seven patients were treated with the neuraminidase inhibitor OSELTAMIVIR at various stages of illness.

> not posting this just to slag you twix.

BUT...the notion that a weaker immune system is a 'better' to combat the (any) virus - you have to post the link, that is just tripe. by reason then if you abuse your body you will be in better stead?

hey people - this is REALLY, REALLY nasty, DEADLY. you should go have a look at the link. if you are thinking about a headache and runny nose -get a clue.

if you are a person who is not in good shape, i would make preparation to be near healthcare facilities if you are staying in thailand. returning home would not be a bad idea either - have a look before poo-pooing this statement:

Fever was often the first symptom, and dyspnea often occurred a median of 5 days after illness onset (range 1–16). During the initial evaluation at hospital, all patients were found to have fever, cough, and dyspnea, and almost half had myalgia and diarrhea. The hospital course was characterized by intermittent high fevers and persistent cough productive of thick sputum. One patient had a small amount of hemoptysis. Later in the course of the disease, organ failure or dysfunction was commonly observed, including respiratory failure in 9 (75%) patients, cardiac failure in 5 (42%), and renal dysfunction in 4 (33%).

if you are a smoker, youre screwed. so keep smokin them spags up homies! twix says thems healthy!

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no02/04-1061.htm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, I certainly read that a strong immune system is more likely ON BALANCE to cause more severe secondary complications as the fever etc is the body's response to the virus and the worse the response (hence, stronger the immune response) the worse the outcome can perhaps be. So young healthy adults were potentially more at risk. Statistics of deaths to date mean nothing much as the spread is so limited to make statistical analysis worthless in such a small sample group. I am sure it was on a WHO notice, but the only thing I am 100% certain of was I read it from an informed source in the last 3 weeks, as I have looked at many articles. I don't know myself, but if this is correct it is a biological immune response and not necessarily directly effected by smoking and drinking.

Anyway. I don't want to get hung up on this aspect of the topic. You are right and I don't really give a ######, frankly.

The main thing is general awareness and the fact that imho Thailand is not doing enough and Taksin has proven he cannot be trusted to admit problems or deal with them in a timely manner. He continues not to want to alarm the public or tourists or try to cull Ducks etc as should now be done. He just has to look at how HK slaughtered all their birds quickly and efficiently in 1997 and stopped it dead in it's tracks (not going to happen this time, but no justification for inaction or lack of appropriate action) We just need to look at his usual behaviour to know his motives are not primarily concerned with Healthcare.

Ignoring the difference over immune response, I am pleased that I took the trouble to make people aware, informed and promote a discussion and of course mention the vaccine/Tamiflu topic as this COULD potentially be such a big issue.

Everything crossed

Edited February 23, 2005 by twix38

[george]

Update:

Asia facing real risk of bird flu pandemic: experts

HO CHI MINH CITY: -- The deadly bird flu virus will take years to eradicate and Asia now faces the serious risk of a pandemic that would cause far greater loss of life than the SARS outbreak, experts told a landmark conference.

Delegations from more than 20 countries and organisations, including major donors and United Nations agencies, were seeking to evaluate their understanding of the H5N1 virus and find long-term measures to get rid of it.

"It is in the interest of both developed and developing countries to invest in the control and containment of avian influenza," said Samuel Jutzi, the Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) director of animal production and health.

"There is an increasing risk of avian influenza spread that no poultry-keeping country can afford to ignore.

"We must assume that avian influenza will persist for many years in some of the countries that had disease outbreaks in 2004-2005," Jutzi told the conference.

Bird flu has been discovered in eight countries since late 2003 -- Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos and South Korea.

Thirty-three people have died in Vietnam since then in several outbreaks. Another 12 have died in Thailand.

Dr. Teruhide Fujita, from the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), echoed the warning. "Immediate eradication of the disease in the region cannot be envisaged in the short term under the current situation," he said.

Fujita noted that "ducks can act as reservoirs of infection with or without clinical signs and are capable of excreting large amounts of viruses into the environment."

Scientists fear a possible mutation of the virus that could unleash a global pandemic, and ways of permanently eradicating the virus will top the agenda.

"We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic," said Dr. Shigeru Omi, director of the WHO's Western Pacific office.

"The health impact in term of death and sickness will be enormous and certainly much greater that SARS", he said referring to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome that killed nearly 800 people two years ago.

However, at a press briefing after the opening session, Omi said the bird flu virus had not yet "gained the potential for efficient human-to-human transmission."

He also said it was difficult to predict when a human vaccine against the disease would be available.

FAO's director of animal health Joseph Domenech said eradication of the virus in poultry "will come in many years."

But, he added, "controlling can be done today. With more investment, it is possible to control the effect of the disease."

Up to 18 million dollars from multilateral donors has been spent on the crisis since late 2003, eight million of it in Vietnam alone. No figure was available for bilateral aid.

While "there is a lot of focus put on human health," Domenech said, "we hope governments will put the focus on the source."

Scientists have long said further outbreaks of the disease are inevitable in the region as long as humans live cheek by jowl with livestock. Animal husbandry practices across the entire region need to be changed.

The conference will also try to strengthen regional cooperation and information. Several countries were accused last year of covering up outbreaks.

Delegates would also be expected to consider why some countries have been more affected than others.

Conference host Vietnam, which has seen 13 human deaths from the virus this winter, is on the frontlines of the disease whereas China, with its huge populations of both humans and poultry, has reported hardly any cases this year.

"It would be highly interesting to listen to the Chinese report," Jutzi told AFP, suggesting that "they may have been lucky" in addition to taking measures such as vaccinating poultry against the virus.

The conference, jointly organized by the OIE and the FAO, is being held an hour's drive from the mouth of the Mekong delta where the poultry population has been decimated since last year.

--AFP 2005-02-23

[twix38]

To H5n1,

In answer to your comment below.

If you are a smoker, youre screwed. so keep smokin them spags up homies! twix says thems healthy!

Here is some proof taken from an article in the Scotsman today. I have highlighted the section of note below and provided the link. I have already stated why the 20 to 40 age group can get worst hit. Perhaps you think they all kept smokin those spags up and died of lung Cancer , but strangely with Flu symptoms.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4171032

The 1918 pandemic of “Spanish ‘Flu” killed more people than the First World War which immediately preceded it.

More people died of influenza in a single year than in four years of the “Black Death”, caused by bubonic plague, between 1347 and 1351.

Over two years the virus ravaged the Earth and infected a fifth of the world’s population.

Unusually for ‘flu, which normally hits the old and infirm the hardest, it was most deadly for people aged 20 to 40.

But despite its horrific death toll, Spanish ‘Flu could look tame next to a virulent and easily transmissible strain of bird ’flu.

Dr Cox added: “We don’t know which of the genes in the avian virus are responsible for its virulence.

“If the virus that became transmissible retained those features that cause it to be so lethal in humans, we could have a high case fatality rate.

“That would be the perfect storm.”

Dr Shigeru Omi, of the World Health Organisation, today told a conference on the issue in Thailand: “We believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic.”

Edited February 23, 2005 by twix38

[h5n1]

oh yes...the trusty scotsman. not the lancet, cdc or even the who report.

some PROOF - thats like quoting FOX news. proof - hehe

further, spanish flu is not h5n1 and it is not bubonic plague - this is tripe. its like comparing apples and mangos. no one has a clue what this thing can do.

i posted the cdc stats for the latest analysis. you will notice that MAYBE the scotsman was looking at an overall stat - but the cdc stats do not bear this out.

further, the scotsman did not post any reasoning behind this unanchored notion. in fact, its just jibberish with little analysis.

i SUSPECT that it is because these are the adults working directly with the birds (20-40) and that dear friend makes HUGE, HUGE difference. DUH.

if you want science, have a look at my cdc link. if you want 2nd hand dumbed down infotainment -have a look at that international bastion of information - the scotsman!

well, at least we agree - its gonna be a killer.

drink up dreamers youre running dry!

[twix38]

H5N1,

I have no reason to doubt the Scotsman's reporting just because they are not the Lancet etc. It is not the first article I have read to this effect and another did give a reason, as I quoted earlier. I suspect that your suspisions about Adults working with the birds is of course complete guess work. At least I have read mine more than once and posted one link. Nobody knows how this will turn out yet, but it could be a factor that healthy adults are hit dissproportionately and let's just have a wild guess that they all worked directly with the birds and make up a few other nice stories too. Perhaps the Lancet will post it from Dr H5N1.

Anyway, you have a biased viewpoint and simply will not believe it possible. No worries and frankly as it is a side issue I can't be bothered to discuss it anymore.

Has anyone found a source to obtain Tamiflu, especially on-line?

[george]

Update:

Govt says no need to panic on outbreaks of bird flu and human flu

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is ready for any possible future outbreak of bird flu or human influenza, according to Public Health Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan.

Thais should not be panicked by the World Health Organisation (WTO)’s warning of a possible major influenza in the region, Mrs. Sudarat told journalists yesterday.

“Thailand’s health care system is well-established with an effective exchange of information and know-how to deal with crises,” the minister said.

Experts from the WHO warned of a possible outbreak of influenza in Asia at the 2nd international conference on bird flu control, being held in Ho Chi Minh City, southern Vietnam, on 23-25 February.

The WHO also said it feared that bird flu would mutate into a fatal form of the influenza.

The WHO’s concerns are based on research which suggests Asia has a major influenza outbreak every 10-15 years.

However, there has been no outbreak in the past three decades, raising fears that the disease might re-emerge in the near future, said Deputy Public Health Minister Suchai Charoenrattanakul.

Thailand has been highly successful in containing the bird flu virus, especially the transmission from humans to humans, Dr. Suchai said..

No new bird flu patients have been found since October last year, he said.

Thailand has also concentrated on protective measures.

Thailand has learned a lot about containing the disease from the outbreaks of chicken flu last year.

--TNA 2005-02-24

[huski]

Has anyone found a source to obtain Tamiflu, especially on-line?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://www.drugdelivery.ca/s4632-s-TAMIFLU.aspx

Shopping Cart

Quantity Product Price Total

TAMIFLU (OSELTAMIVIR) 75MG - NO PRESCRIPTION REQUIRED 10 CAPSULE(S) 79.99

* Shipping & Processing 30.00

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$109.99

[toastwars]

If fear of this flu makes me scour the web and have to read "the Scotsman", pay out $109 bucks for a drug that I may need because 15 people have died from it in three months. Then I think I would rather take my chances. By anyones standard the death toll is not that high and you will probably get knocked down by a bus on the way to the chemist because you reading the Lancet and not looking where you were going. It is peoples reliance on drugs and antibioics that have created all these super bugs, yet we still go running to the pharmacy at the slightest urgeing from the WHO, it's like using petrol to put out a fire