Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[jazzbo]

Is the US$ destined to collapse?

Are Kate and Will destined to divorce?

Are the Chicago Cubs destined to win the World Series?

The once mighty US dollar may crash tomorrow... but wouldn't a new poll / topic be in order after beating this dead horse since AUG 2009?

[badge]

Sorry to interrupt but I'da thought a plunging gold price would be bullish for the $.[...]

As far as trading currencies goes I personally have no interest in the price of Gold, let alone use it to divine trades in other markets.

I note yesterday both Gold and USD gained.

[badge]

[...]

DXY pushed up to 80.65 today before a small correction, as a result my system is already showing a sell signal at 81.75/85, as expected.

This may correspond on eurusd to around .2985/55/35. Cable had a buy earlier at .5555, but it has already bounced 90pips from 5559. Next Buy signal(assuming 5555 gets broken) lies at 5350, with 5095 looking likely thereafter.

Strangely the DXY sell signal prices have not yet been met as it hit a high of 81.44, whilst the eurusd buy signal prices were meet as it hit a low of .2969 and since reversed up 465pips/3.5%, so 14pips/0.11% aobve the 2955 signal mentioned in the previous posting, and 16pips0.12% below the 2985 signal.

Whether or not the previously mentioned DXY price signals do get tested ro not remains to be seen for the moment.

[badge]

As mentioned on the Thai Economic crash thread I think, I firmly believe the THB will start a course of significant weakening in coming months(years).

Its largely dependant on the USD though in my opinion.

The US$ Index has turned up from awfully close to my aforementioned longer term support levels, but I would still prefer a further dip to meet them exactly, at either 75.6, 74.5 or 74. Lower than this would suggest 67.5/68, but Im inclined to think that a) it wont get there, and at those levels it would be an amazing long term buy.

This would correspond to USDTHB having perhaps making a low right now, or, if US$ Index weakens further, perhaps USDTHB could see as low as 29.50, some -10% lower than current rates.

As above in US$ Idex, at that level it would be a fantastic long term buy in my view.

Ditto GBPTHB while Im at it(i.e likely making a low now), with a 'far out' possibility of 44.00 offering a fabulous longer term buy.

I know that TV'ers interest in the the fluctuations of THB are always piqued, so I felt it time to review this prediction of October 2nd 2009.

The US$Index found stout support at 74.17 and has since reversed again, twice, as detailed earlier on this thread, however USDTHB has traded some 12% lower to a low of 29.35.

Having the benefit of seeing USDTHB weaken Id like to change my previous prediction of a possible low on USDTHB to 29, as 29.50 has already been met/slightly exceeded.

GBPTHB on the other hand hasnt come anywhere near 44.00, yet. As Ive mentioned many times GBPTHB is merely USDTHB/USDGBP as there are no significant trade/exchange flows to dictate otherwise, as such GBPTHB largely depends on Cable. Lets see

[churchill]

In 2011 a good chance !

http://stock.ly/content/details/7358

Mongolia then australia had the best performing currencies in 2010

Which , apart from gold/silver , will come out best in 2011 ??

[Naam]

In 2011 a good chance !

http://stock.ly/content/details/7358

Mongolia then australia had the best performing currencies in 2010

Which , apart from gold/silver , will come out best in 2011 ??

the Mongolian Tugrik is a restricted currency which has outside Mongolia less value than any good quality toilet paper

[badge]

In 2011 a good chance !

http://stock.ly/content/details/7358

Mongolia then australia had the best performing currencies in 2010

Which , apart from gold/silver , will come out best in 2011 ??

Depends if you believe in the slowing growth/Bear theme for 2011, or not.

If you do, US$ will likely benefit initially at least, if not, same crncys again will benefit.

[travelmann]

In 2011 a good chance !

http://stock.ly/content/details/7358

Mongolia then australia had the best performing currencies in 2010

Which , apart from gold/silver , will come out best in 2011 ??

the Mongolian Tugrik is a restricted currency which has outside Mongolia less value than any good quality toilet paper

Oh I dont know....have you seen the quality of Thai toilet paper

Edited January 9, 2011 by travelmann

[JimsKnight]

Can someone actually define what a 'restricted' currency is and if that prevent's a mongolian (or otherwise) exchanging it for Thai baht...

[Naam]

Can someone actually define what a 'restricted' currency is and if that prevent's a mongolian (or otherwise) exchanging it for Thai baht...

there are several factors which make a currency restricted, one or a combination might apply but not limited to the main ones as specified hereafter:

-no bank or money changer will accept it in form of cash not can it be traded offshore as book money vs. other currencies,

-cannot be held in accounts outside the country of issue,

-export of currency prohibited by law.

[Pib]

If the USD is going to collapse it don't look like it's going to do it today or tomorrow. Just looked at Bloomberg and as of 8:17pm (Thailand time)/8:17am US Eastern Standard Time, the dollar is up over 1.2% against the Baht. Of course, this is subject to change minute by minute but is following a dollar strength trend for the last few weeks against the baht....or is a baht weakness against the dollar.

Currencies Value Change % Change Time

USD-THB 30.7250 0.3750 1.2356% 08:17 EST

If this holds-up come Tuesday morning in Thailand the TT Buying Rate should be around 30.58...a little higher than it is today. But when the BOT probably raises a key interest rate by 25 to 50 basis points on Wednesday the dollar may give up X-amount of its recent gains against the baht achieved over the last few weeks, unless this probable interest rate increase is already baked into the exchange rate of the day. One thing about most currencies is: they are up, then they are down (and vice versa)...flip a coin to determine the direction of the hour, day, week, month, etc. But one thing for sure IMHO, the US needs to get its deficit under control or the dollar will continue its slow, long term slide downward against many currencies like the Baht.

[Pib]

Yeap, at 9:50am today I see ThaiVisa has the Baht/USD TT rate listed at 30.63. This sure beats being significantly lower than 30 baht just a few weeks ago.

[old wanderer]

Well this subject...."Is the US Dollar going to collapse??" has broken out into some serious areas...not confined to the internet.

Virginia Creates Subcommittee To Study Monetary Alternatives In Case Of Terminal Fed "Breakdown", Considers Gold As Option

In what may one day be heralded as the formal proposal that proverbially started it all, the Commonwealth of Virginia introduced House Resolution No. 557 to establish a joint subcommittee to "to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System." In other words, Virginia will study the fallback plan of a "timely adoption of an alternative sound currency that the Commonwealth's government and citizens may employ without delay in the event of the destruction of the Federal Reserve System's currency" and avoid or "at least mitigate many of the economic, social, and political shocks to be expected to arise from hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System." Most importantly as pertain to the currency in question, "Americans may employ whatever currency they choose to stipulate as the medium for payment of their private debts, including gold or silver, or both, to the exclusion of a currency not redeemable in gold or silver that Congress may have designated 'legal tender'." Whether this resolution will ever get off the ground, and actually find that the world is at great risk should gold not be instituted as a backstop currency, is irrelevant. The mere fact that it is out there, should provide sufficient impetus to other states to consider the ultimate Plan B.

We urge all legislators to carefully read this resolution.

Full proposal: My link

[Naam]

Yeap, at 9:50am today I see ThaiVisa has the Baht/USD TT rate listed at 30.63. This sure beats being significantly lower than 30 baht just a few weeks ago.

USDTHB yesterday's trading (Central European Time):

Edited January 11, 2011 by Naam

[Pib]

Above currency graph looks like a seismograph recording of an earthquake. Sure hope all these sovereign debts don't eventually cause the world financial house of cards to fall down.

[Naam]

Above currency graph looks like a seismograph recording of an earthquake. Sure hope all these sovereign debts don't eventually cause the world financial house of cards to fall down.

the tight y-axis exaggerates the swings. movements during the first trading hours were ~10 and later ~20 Satang.

[AlexLah]

The collapse will start with cities, then states, and finally, federal governments within a year or 2.

[Naam]

amen! :jap:

[badge]

[badge]

As mentioned on the Thai Economic crash thread I think, I firmly believe the THB will start a course of significant weakening in coming months(years).

Its largely dependant on the USD though in my opinion.

The US$ Index has turned up from awfully close to my aforementioned longer term support levels, but I would still prefer a further dip to meet them exactly, at either 75.6, 74.5 or 74. Lower than this would suggest 67.5/68, but Im inclined to think that a) it wont get there, and at those levels it would be an amazing long term buy.

This would correspond to USDTHB having perhaps making a low right now, or, if US$ Index weakens further, perhaps USDTHB could see as low as 29.50, some -10% lower than current rates.

[...]

USDTHB has reversed 1.85THB so far.

[cloudhopper]

Good analysis here

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-dollar-about-to-lose-reserve.html

[badge]

Havent menioned any Signals for a while but they have been performing in their usual stellar fashion. Had one for cable I will have noted here many months ago(Nov '10?), a Sell at 6390, which it has finally met and reversed from(.6400 top tick). How long it holds I have yet to fathom however.

Next up I have a Sell on eurusd at 4350, then looks to be around 4465ish and perhaps 4730, and a Buy on DXY at 73.40 with the next awfully close at around 73.25. Very close to the '08 lows. Lets see

[12DrinkMore]

FWIW

http://www.livetradi...e-usd-37338.htm

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva spoke on Monday Evening at The Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).After his keynote speech in which he outlined the Government's achievements in Education, Economic Growth and stabilizing rural income, Abhisit Vejjajiva took some Q&A.

During the Q&A I was fortunate enough to ask the Prime Minister about the Thai Baht.

I have estimated that by 2015 the Thai Baht will be at a rate of 23 to 1 USD.

[flying]

FWIW

http://www.livetradi...e-usd-37338.htm

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva spoke on Monday Evening at The Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).After his keynote speech in which he outlined the Government's achievements in Education, Economic Growth and stabilizing rural income, Abhisit Vejjajiva took some Q&A.

During the Q&A I was fortunate enough to ask the Prime Minister about the Thai Baht.

I have estimated that by 2015 the Thai Baht will be at a rate of 23 to 1 USD.

There would be much crying & gnashing of teeth on TV if the rate were 23=1 USD

[Naam]

I have estimated that by 2015 the Thai Baht will be at a rate of 23 to 1 USD.

There would be much crying & gnashing of teeth on TV if the rate were 23=1 USD

USDTHB 25-26 is the long term target (2-3 years) of some Deutsche Bank currency "anals"

[Lancelot]

USD = 23 THB? Cool bring it on. I'm certian that thai exports to the US will also increase

[Naam]

USD = 23 THB? Cool bring it on. I'm certian that thai exports to the US will also increase

the problem is that it can't be "brought on". the markets make the decision based on fundamentals. the BoT has done its best to fight the Baht appreciation through intervention in the currency markets which increased Thailand's foreign currency reserves by 100 billion dollars (from ~80bb to 180bb) within the last 4 years.

contrary to the (since several years existing) wishful thinking of expats that Thai exports will suffer and steps might be taken to weaken the Baht the reality looks quite different:

quote: "PHETCHABURI, April 3 -- The Commerce Ministry has revised Thailand’s export growth in 2011 upward to 12 per cent or an equivalent of about US$219 billion from an earlier 10 per cent, said Commerce Minister Pornthiva Nakasai on Sunday."

of course the above-mentioned is just one of the blatant lies and the Thai economy is on the brink of collapsing. dozens of Thaivisa experts in a dozen threads have been forecasting the demise of the Thai economy and the crash of the Thai Baht.

[churchill]

'the problem is that it can't be "brought on". the markets make the decision based on fundamentals. the BoT has done its best to fight the Baht appreciation'

More like USD depreciation - How can BoT fight the USD printing press /

[Naam]

More like USD depreciation - How can BoT fight the USD printing press /

it's not USD only Churchill. look at €UR and GBP vs. THB. of course these rates are affected by cross-trading.

[churchill]

More like USD depreciation - How can BoT fight the USD printing press /

it's not USD only Churchill. look at €UR and GBP vs. THB. of course these rates are affected by cross-trading.

So where is the Gold/Silver Stock in Thailand ? I heard Kingsgate was going to list on the SET ?/