I Want To Vomit...

[neverdie]

I dont think its gloating or being self-centred. ThaiRIch is just in a position to be profiting from what is happening with the currencies. Its not like he himself is causing it, now is it? No need to be bitter because of his good fortune, just try to learn how to protect yourself. If you get paid in US and think its going lower, then open a forex account and hedge yourself. Its not difficult.

if your income is on a monthly basis, e.g. salary or pension, and you have no additional liquid assets which generate income then there is no way to hedge the local Baht expenses. unfortunately quite a number of Thaivisa participants are in this position between a rock and a hard place.

then there is another group who would be able to hedge but don't believe in any other currency than the one of their home country. on top of that most people don't know how to hedge by forward buying or selling one currency vs. another one.

but whatever, if Thairich has a reason to be happy let him be happy!

Uncle Naam, You failed to mention.....then theres those who invest in the worlds Universal Currency of Gold and other precious metals but I know thats only going to get you all fired up

[Naam]

Not hedge the local Baht expenses, but hedge the US dollar. If they are getting USD income every month, even a 50% hedge is better than nothing. And with Oanda FX account, you can use 50:1 leverage, so very little capital is needed. So, they get their income in USD and its going down vs the Baht, but their FX account is going up in value to help offset.

obviously we are talking two languages Vibe. i have no idea what your "hedge" means.

We have had this discussion before - He too is hedging his bets.- And funnly enough market syntetic instruments also do this.

you can "hedge" a currency only vs. another currency and/or asset but not vs. itself. period!

[GarryP]

If you were going to buy US$ now, what are the forcasts for the $ increasing against the Baht. I personally do not think you are looking at a short term investment, especially with them printing $ like there is no tomorrow. Until the US gets fiscally sensible, the $ isn't going to increase much. I'm not sure I have that long to wait for a return on investment.

[neverdie]

It's not madness. For the long term, it's very smart for a person who can use dollars anyway and/or US housing. The US housing market is somewhere near the bottom, that is obvious.

I guess you could be considered right, depending on how loosely you use the words, "SOMEWHERE NEAR" the bottom. I guess if it drops another 10% you could be accurate but if US housing drops another 30%, you'd still consider yourself accurate?

I have absolutely no problem with anyone converting good strong baht for USD......I think its a smart option, but the business end of it all is to safely park that USD somewhere where its going to increase in value, not decrease.

History will tell, but I don't see it going down more than 30 percent. Precise bottom picking is for fools who miss markets. For a long term hold, the time is NOW.

30% fairly significant JT. If you were talking about a USD$500K property dropping 30%, say $150k, then thats roughtly 5 million baht. Now the OP was excited about something going from 6.6 m baht to 5m baht (& rightfully so) then the change in the property market isnt going to exactly rock his socks. Having said all of that, even blind freddy can see theres going to be some excellent property deals coming in the FUTURE in the USA & those with CASH & Liquidity will be able to leap at a moments notice.

[MAJIC]

I always tell my friends, if you LIVE here, you should have a good portion of your assets here. Does that not make sense??

YES!

NO! unless you want to lose everything,

I'm sure I dont need to enlarge on this,just look around at how many Farangs have been cleaned out,

who also made the commitment to Thailand.

Edited October 6, 2010 by MAJIC

[neverdie]

I always tell my friends, if you LIVE here, you should have a good portion of your assets here. Does that not make sense??

YES!

NO! unless you want to lose everything,

I'm sure I dont need to enlarge on this,just look around at how many Farangs have been cleaned out,

who also made the commitment to Thailand.

I'm with you Majic, If I can't wheel it onto a plane in a suitcase its been left somewhere more secure, a place where there are laws to protect me and I have rights as an individual.

[pkrv]

Not hedge the local Baht expenses, but hedge the US dollar. If they are getting USD income every month, even a 50% hedge is better than nothing. And with Oanda FX account, you can use 50:1 leverage, so very little capital is needed. So, they get their income in USD and its going down vs the Baht, but their FX account is going up in value to help offset.

obviously we are talking two languages Vibe. i have no idea what your "hedge" means.

We have had this discussion before - He too is hedging his bets.- And funnly enough market syntetic instruments also do this.

you can "hedge" a currency only vs. another currency and/or asset but not vs. itself. period!

True - but in this case you can go one way or the other - At crunch time you choose. For me UK or Thailand.

[crusader79]

I always tell my friends, if you LIVE here, you should have a good portion of your assets here. Does that not make sense??

YES!

NO! unless you want to lose everything,

I'm sure I dont need to enlarge on this,just look around at how many Farangs have been cleaned out,

who also made the commitment to Thailand.

I know a number of quite wealthy farang who were ruined or nearly so in 1997, when the baht (market, economy) unexpectedly collapsed. Never keep too many eggs in the Thai basket, its economy is small, opaque and volatile, prone to any number of all too imaginable disasters. At least that's my philosophy.

[Naam]

30% fairly significant JT. If you were talking about a USD$500K property dropping 30%, say $150k, then thats roughtly 5 million baht. Now the OP was excited about something going from 6.6 m baht to 5m baht (& rightfully so) then the change in the property market isnt going to exactly rock his socks. Having said all of that, even blind freddy can see theres going to be some excellent property deals coming in the FUTURE in the USA & those with CASH & Liquidity will be able to leap at a moments notice.

my former home in Florida which i sold in 2005 is since months for sale at a discount of 40%

[neverdie]

my former home in Florida which i sold in 2005 is since months for sale at a discount of 40%

Nice, now in about 1-2 years time you will be able to re-buy it for just 40% of what you sold it for >>>> GAME ON!

[Chunky1]

Yes, the Thai Baht makes real estate in the USA cheaper, the only problem is that you actually have to live there to take advantage of it. You also have to pay property tax. Probably around $5,400/year for your 6m baht home. Don't forget capital gains tax once you sell (never mind that inflation will probably be growing by 5% a year - that is not accounted for when the IRS takes the price you paid vs the price you sold at). Historically, American real estate has barely beaten inflation, although I doubt Thailand is much different.

If you are planning on moving to the USA, then cheap housing is a plus. If you are trying to take advantage of cheap US housing by purchasing a second home to rent out, I think you are going to shoot yourself in the foot. Simply buy home building index stocks, it's the same principle.

Edited October 6, 2010 by Chunky1

[Sakeopete]

I don't know much about finance but what happens when the largest consumer economy in the world can no longer afford Asia's exports? Then when Asia's demand for raw materials from Africa/South America drops that will effect buying power of those countries (and Australia). Weakening their buying power of Asian exports. Will this not cause an eventual correction or just another recession?

What happens is that economy stops being the largest consumer, and then another country takes their place. Think China and India, as they have a growing middle class that also want ipods and shinny new autos.

Every Rome must fall....

From what I have read online it seems the Chinese (not sure about Indians) have been a culture of savers who don't part with their money easily. Do you think Asia will pick up the slack from the west as their export orders diminish? If not will their weaker export driven economies effect the forex?

How will the growing middle class of China and India who make money from cheap exports to the west afford all their domestic purchases when their export market is crashing around them?

Edited October 6, 2010 by Sakeopete

[Naam]

my former home in Florida which i sold in 2005 is since months for sale at a discount of 40%

Nice, now in about 1-2 years time you will be able to re-buy it for just 40% of what you sold it for >>>> GAME ON!

the house is now 16 years old. american construction, solid outside walls but matchstick wooden roof structure on which plywood and asphalt shingles are nailed neighbours are telling me that most of the "hi-tech" gadgets i added and for which i paid fancy money are not functioning anymore because lack of maintenance (house is rented out, owner lives in the Carolinas). based on all indications i wouldn't buy it back even for 30%

i built a near identical house in Thailand which most probably will still be ok when i am long gone. what i could not replicate is the lakefront, the view and the wildlife we experienced there.

[neverdie]

i built a near identical house in Thailand which most probably will still be ok when i am long gone. what i could not replicate is the lakefront, the view and the wildlife we experienced there.

there is a different sort of wildlife here

[pkrv]

I know a number of quite wealthy farang who were ruined or nearly so in 1997, when the baht (market, economy) unexpectedly collapsed. Never keep too many eggs in the Thai basket, its economy is small, opaque and volatile, prone to any number of all too imaginable disasters. At least that's my philosophy.

I can assure you if you were wiped out in 1997 in Thailand you were not a wealthy Farang.

Perhaps if we are talking about Patthaya and using an organ to think with other than your brain - would contribute to such a predicament?

I can more than match your experiences, in reverse, along with many other posters on the property forum - NOTABLY those in the Bangkok condominium market. I raise your hand - but I suspect you cannot match the stakes.

[Chunky1]

Europe, USA, and Japan are all in the same place. Yes, another recession is quite possible. There is a currency war going on and it will result in continued boom and bust periods.

Tech Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOOOM.... Then Bust.

Housing Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOOM.... Then Bust.

Recovery from Housing Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOM.... .

These three governments are going to keep printing money in order to rob their citizens of their savings and pensions. It is the only way that they can avoid bankruptcy.

It's funny to me how people talk about how India and China and Thailand really know what they are doing. These are developing countries with economies based on slavery. Rocket Science ain't it? It's not hard to grow when you have a huge underclass of slaves and a bunch of wealthy consumers. Good luck to the Chinese and Thais when it comes to selling their products to the factory workers who made them.

I'm bullish on gold.

[wasabi]

Many Thai's will soon be retiring in the USA due to the lower cost of living and availability of women.

[pkrv]

Many Thai's will soon be retiring in the USA due to the lower cost of living and availability of women.

Ohh good grief we are talking about an organ transplant here aren’t we.

[furyrider]

I don't know much about finance but what happens when the largest consumer economy in the world can no longer afford Asia's exports? Then when Asia's demand for raw materials from Africa/South America drops that will effect buying power of those countries (and Australia). Weakening their buying power of Asian exports. Will this not cause an eventual correction or just another recession?

What happens is that economy stops being the largest consumer, and then another country takes their place. Think China and India, as they have a growing middle class that also want ipods and shinny new autos.

Every Rome must fall....

Well I am no expert on finances hel_l if there is a wrong choice to make I would make it.

But what is causing the growth in China? Correct me if I am wrong but I think it is exports. Where are those exports headed. From what I can see everywhere. This fancy Apple computer I am typing on is made in China. So a big part of there income I think is coming from the western civilization and Asia.

Now that the US has cranked up the printing presses again so that they can continue to devalue the usd it will start making it expensive to import from China. Europe will be in the same boat. The only countries that would be left is SE Asia. I don't see where that will give China the same growth it has now.

Now Thailand has a good export market to but as the BT straightens how long will that last? So then what happens?

I am an american and I hate to say this but it looks like my county is on a self distract mode and it is happening to fast for other powers to stabilize. I think before it all stops everybody everywhere will be in the toilet. Except for the ones that is behind this mess.

[crusader79]

I know a number of quite wealthy farang who were ruined or nearly so in 1997, when the baht (market, economy) unexpectedly collapsed. Never keep too many eggs in the Thai basket, its economy is small, opaque and volatile, prone to any number of all too imaginable disasters. At least that's my philosophy.

I can assure you if you were wiped out in 1997 in Thailand you were not a wealthy Farang.

Perhaps if we are talking about Patthaya and using an organ to think with other than your brain - would contribute to such a predicament?

I can more than match your experiences, in reverse, along with many other posters on the property forum - NOTABLY those in the Bangkok condominium market. I raise your hand - but I suspect you cannot match the stakes.

Really? You can assure me? Knowing nothing about me or the people to whom I'm referring?

In 1997, anyone with the bulk of their net worth in Thai condominiums and shares got hammered, particularly the highly leveraged. Most of the biggest casualities were wealthy Thai, but a number of foreigners who'd overly committed to Thailand were also caught.

Be careful with those big swinging stakes of yours, I'm guessing you haven't been an investor in Thailand for very long.

Edited October 6, 2010 by crusader79

[pkrv]

I know a number of quite wealthy farang who were ruined or nearly so in 1997, when the baht (market, economy) unexpectedly collapsed. Never keep too many eggs in the Thai basket, its economy is small, opaque and volatile, prone to any number of all too imaginable disasters. At least that's my philosophy.

I can assure you if you were wiped out in 1997 in Thailand you were not a wealthy Farang.

Perhaps if we are talking about Patthaya and using an organ to think with other than your brain - would contribute to such a predicament?

I can more than match your experiences, in reverse, along with many other posters on the property forum - NOTABLY those in the Bangkok condominium market. I raise your hand - but I suspect you cannot match the stakes.

Really? You can assure me? Knowing nothing about me or the people to whom I'm referring? I'm guessing you haven't been an investor in Thailand for very long.

In 1997, anyone with the bulk of their net worth in Thai condominiums and shares got hammered, particularly the highly leveraged. Most of the biggest casualities were Thai, but a number of foreigners who'd overly committed to Thailand were also caught.

Be careful with those big swinging stakes of yours.

You have spoken - I trust I can truly respond in kind? My thoughts are primarily for ourselves, there are two of us, and we have a difficult enough time ahead as it is. You can chart our progress forward here.

http://www.thaivisa....-visa-uk-based/

If you choose to be highly leveraged and take the consequences of that for good or ill, then so be it.

Point Blank - Some Farangs choose not to - and that is sometimes the point.

Edit perhaps I should not ask but where did your family exacrtly invest?

Edited October 6, 2010 by pkrv

[simon43]

It's great to be poor! I never have to worry about currency exchange rates. Just steal a pineapple or two for lunch from the field outside my rented shack and I'm as happy as a pig in sh*t

Simon

[crusader79]

I know a number of quite wealthy farang who were ruined or nearly so in 1997, when the baht (market, economy) unexpectedly collapsed. Never keep too many eggs in the Thai basket, its economy is small, opaque and volatile, prone to any number of all too imaginable disasters. At least that's my philosophy.

I can assure you if you were wiped out in 1997 in Thailand you were not a wealthy Farang.

Perhaps if we are talking about Patthaya and using an organ to think with other than your brain - would contribute to such a predicament?

I can more than match your experiences, in reverse, along with many other posters on the property forum - NOTABLY those in the Bangkok condominium market. I raise your hand - but I suspect you cannot match the stakes.

Really? You can assure me? Knowing nothing about me or the people to whom I'm referring? I'm guessing you haven't been an investor in Thailand for very long.

In 1997, anyone with the bulk of their net worth in Thai condominiums and shares got hammered, particularly the highly leveraged. Most of the biggest casualities were Thai, but a number of foreigners who'd overly committed to Thailand were also caught.

Be careful with those big swinging stakes of yours.

You have spoken - I trust I can truly respond in kind? My thoughts are primarily for ourselves, there are two of us, and we have a difficult enough time ahead as it is. You can chart our progress forward here.

http://www.thaivisa....-visa-uk-based/

If you choose to be highly leveraged and take the consequences of that for good or ill, then so be it.

Point Blank - Some Farangs choose not to - and that is sometimes the point.

Edit perhaps I should not ask but where did your family exacrtly invest?

You may have read my initial post without noticing it was quoting two earlier ones:

POST: "I always tell my friends, if you LIVE here, you should have a good portion of your assets here. Does that not make sense??"

REPLY: "NO! unless you want to lose everything, I'm sure I dont need to enlarge on this, just look around at how many Farangs have been cleaned out,

who also made the commitment to Thailand."

I was agreeing with the latter, based on the experiences of acquaintances in 1997 (not myself).

Those were go-go years for stock and property investment throughout East Asia (the initial boom, no one thought asset values would ever go anywhere but up). These were successful businessmen who owned multiple condo units, some bought with cash, some mortgaged. You can imagine what happened when the baht lost half its value and the condominiums even more, mortgages or not. At the same time their Bangkok and Asia-based businesses suffered (one collapsed completely, since it was import-related and wealthy Thais no longer had money to spend). It took them many years to recover.

So my point was simply that I would never keep too high a percentage of my assets in Thailand, the risks remain unusually varied and high (as the other poster noted, 'I'm sure I don't need to enlarge on this'). I own two properties in Thailand but keep the bulk of my assets outside.

[RKASA]

Everything I have here is a toss. I only built because I knew over time it would be cheaper then rent and it already has. Mind you its no mansion. If the Baht hits 28 (maybe next week:blink:) I will just board up and take a vacation. Not ta care, won't even sell - might be back - maybe not. I got everything I need back home to.

simon43 was that you out there in my Som O trees? Its OK I got lots. :jap:

[Sakeopete]

I don't know much about finance but what happens when the largest consumer economy in the world can no longer afford Asia's exports? Then when Asia's demand for raw materials from Africa/South America drops that will effect buying power of those countries (and Australia). Weakening their buying power of Asian exports. Will this not cause an eventual correction or just another recession?

What happens is that economy stops being the largest consumer, and then another country takes their place. Think China and India, as they have a growing middle class that also want ipods and shinny new autos.

Every Rome must fall....

Well I am no expert on finances hel_l if there is a wrong choice to make I would make it.

But what is causing the growth in China? Correct me if I am wrong but I think it is exports. Where are those exports headed. From what I can see everywhere. This fancy Apple computer I am typing on is made in China. So a big part of there income I think is coming from the western civilization and Asia.

Now that the US has cranked up the printing presses again so that they can continue to devalue the usd it will start making it expensive to import from China. Europe will be in the same boat. The only countries that would be left is SE Asia. I don't see where that will give China the same growth it has now.

Now Thailand has a good export market to but as the BT straightens how long will that last? So then what happens?

I am an american and I hate to say this but it looks like my county is on a self distract mode and it is happening to fast for other powers to stabilize. I think before it all stops everybody everywhere will be in the toilet. Except for the ones that is behind this mess.

You should say what did cause the growth. Now, they have money, and want to have the same goods as the west. Have you been to China? They have some very modern cities, with all the modern luxuries of life that entails. Washing machines and tv's, hand phones and PC's. And they are a growing economy, that is why so many international companies are trying to get a foot hold there.

This attached screen shot is from a news letter I follow and received tonight, and the author goes into detail how Asia is/ will continue to grow.

But the majority of the people in those countries are poor, the ones that are the emerging middle class are the workers toiling in the factories that export to the west. Do you believe a bunch of unemployed factory workers will boost their domestic spending to make up for losses in their exports?

[Chunky1]

Europe, USA, and Japan are all in the same place. Yes, another recession is quite possible. There is a currency war going on and it will result in continued boom and bust periods.

Tech Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOOOM.... Then Bust.

Housing Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOOM.... Then Bust.

Recovery from Housing Bubble - GOV PRINTS MONEY -> BOOM.... .

These three governments are going to keep printing money in order to rob their citizens of their savings and pensions. It is the only way that they can avoid bankruptcy.

It's funny to me how people talk about how India and China and Thailand really know what they are doing. These are developing countries with economies based on slavery. Rocket Science ain't it? It's not hard to grow when you have a huge underclass of slaves and a bunch of wealthy consumers. Good luck to the Chinese and Thais when it comes to selling their products to the factory workers who made them.

I'm bullish on gold.

What do you think would happen to the US if China orchestrated a selling of all their Dollar reserves along with other Asian countries? All 2 Trillion! You think the $ is devaluing fast now, just wait! China aint no dummy, they have been leaders in business only for a few thousand years!

Im bullish on silver and palladium....

There would be a crash in all fiat currency. The USA would have the most gold and the biggest guns. They'd also have Iraqi oil and control of the Middle East. China would have their dick in their hand. What, you think the Yuan is going to become the global reserve currency?

[cloudhopper]

I always tell my friends, if you LIVE here, you should have a good portion of your assets here. Does that not make sense??

It certainly does if you have doubts that your outside assets will maintain their exchange value with the THB.

[cloudhopper]

I don't know much about finance but what happens when the largest consumer economy in the world can no longer afford Asia's exports? Then when Asia's demand for raw materials from Africa/South America drops that will effect buying power of those countries (and Australia). Weakening their buying power of Asian exports. Will this not cause an eventual correction or just another recession?

Spot on.

[electau]

Just remember that in 1997 the rate was 25THB to the USD. The THB then fell to 50 and then later stabilised at around 40 to the USD. No one complained then.

And it may well occur again. Currencies are no longer fixed except in some isolated instances.

One currency rises the other falls THB/USD, AUD/USD etc.

[cloudhopper]

The US housing market is somewhere near the bottom, that is obvious.

It's obvious that it's not even close to the bottom.