Drought Or Ample Rain? Water Chiefs Disagree On Late Year Forecasts

[webfact]

Drought or ample rain? Water chiefs disagree on late year forecasts
Janjira Pongrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) yesterday said this year's drought period would remain for another three months before it could decide whether to allow off-season rice growing next year.

Most major dams currently hold about 46 per cent of their water capacity. Pasak Cholasit Dam has the lowest level at only 12 per cent, the department said.

Previously Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) director Royol Chitradorn predicted the rainy season would come early with a large amount of higher than average rainfall.

Now the RID office of water management and hydrology head Dr Thongplew Kongchan has provided contrary information.

Thongplew said the department's committee to follow-up and analyse the water situation had found that this year's overall rainfall would be about the same as 2012's average rainfall.

Later this year would see more periods of no-rain while there would be only one storm in August-September and one storm in October-November.

He said the country's dams currently held 32,551 million cubic metres -- or 46 per cent of capacity. They would be able to support rainwater of another 37,000 million cubic metres.

Thongplew said that Tak's Bhumiphol Dam now holds water at 34 per cent of capacity and could take another 8,900 million cubic metres. Uttaradit's Sirikit Dam stands at 35 per cent of capacity and could store another 6,000 million cubic metres; while Pasak Cholasit Dam stands at12 per cent of capacity and could take another 680 million cubic metres.

The Chao Phraya river basin's rice-growing area - covering 500,000 rai in Lop Buri, Saraburi, Angthong, Chainat and Pathum Thani - would use rainwater and be promoted to use water pumps, he said. This year's drought would remain if there was no heavy rainfall in August-September, he said -- in line with the Thai Meteorological Department's information that forecast the low amount of rainfall - which contradicted Royol's information. He said RID believed the Thai Meteorological Department was prepared to see that the seasonal rice-growing got sufficient water and then would decide in September-October whether the off-season rice growing scheme for 2013-2014 was doable or not.

Meanwhile RID deputy chief Paijen Maksuwan said the department, to mark its 111-year anniversary, aimed to expand irrigation areas to 63.6 million rai from the current 29.6 million rai. However, there was still a limitation on funding because the department received only Bt30 billion-Bt40 billion per year to develop water sources while also facing objections from local residents in dam construction areas. As a result, the department planned to expand its irrigation areas by only 200,000 rai so far, he said.

To achieve the goal, the department had various projects including 2,363 reservoirs (of 26 major reservoirs, most of which were under the Water and Flood Management Commission's plan) as well as 1,877 weirs, 549 sluice gates/barrages, 1,676 water pump stations, 1,471 water retention area projects, and 37 waterway network development projects.

If things went as planned the country's irrigation area would expand by 34 million rai, he said. Thailand's water demand stands currently at 162,150 million cubic metres per year.


-- The Nation 2013-06-11

[MaxLee]

Drought or ample rain? Water chiefs disagree on late year forecasts

Janjira Pongrai

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) yesterday said this year's drought period would remain for another three months before it could decide whether to allow off-season rice growing next year.

-- The Nation 2013-06-11

Helloooo, the rainy season has already started, with some really nasty thunderstorms, that have affected my TRUE satellite TV yesterday btw..... Edited June 10, 2013 by MaxLee

[apetley]

Only two storms in the whole of August-November?

Somebody has been consulting their fortune teller.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[MaxLee]

Only two storms in the whole of August-November?

Somebody has been consulting their fortune teller.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

It's exactly the months September and October I'm worried about, the most...

[Bellweather]

I don't see any mention that the Thai Met Office has been consulted even if forecasting is less than an exact science especially long range. Looks like a couple of senior officials want to see their name up in lights as per usual.

In my part of Isan it's been raining for coming on 8 hours with no sign of let up.

[Robby nz]

Helloooo, the rainy season has already started, with some really nasty thunderstorms, that have affected my TRUE satellite TV yesterday btw.....

How terrible Max I feel so sorry for you, but have you noticed the thunder storms are only short lived and the rain they bring is gone very quickly.

For the dams to fill it needs a lot of rain in the north and I very much doubt, given global weather patterns that it will come this year.

The C P river is still at the lowest I have ever seen it, for the rain we have had has ( in rural areas where there is no large areas of concrete ) soaked into thirsty ground.

That ground still has the capacity to take up a lot of water before any significant run off ( in rural areas ) will take place.

Getting water into rivers and dams depends on run off and when that is slow due to parched ground taking up water the filling of the rivers and dams will also be slow.

The farmers around here are all pumping out of the klongs, while this is not unusual I suspect they are having to pump more than normal.

Add to that, some of the klongs they are pumping out of are also very low.

Sure there will be rain in the south and center of the country, possibly even enough to have floods in BKK but that's not where it is needed.

[bigbamboo]

The monsoon has already moved into place. 'Fon' will 'tok' soon.

The worry here is that nobody in authority really seems to have a clue.

[OzMick]

Ahhh, get it going. Thailand desperately needs more rice at the moment, otherwise they won't be able to use all the funds allocated to the rice scam.

[pistachios]

Tring to predict the weather so far ahead is a complete waste of time and money. Better to spend energy in trying to build a system that can cope with the weather's high volatility.

[Hunter s somtam]

I don't see any mention that the Thai Met Office has been consulted even if forecasting is less than an exact science especially long range. Looks like a couple of senior officials want to see their name up in lights as per usual.

In my part of Isan it's been raining for coming on 8 hours with no sign of let up.

We must be in the same part ,pissing down all night and still raining now,here's a shot out my back door.

[hellodolly]

Drought or ample rain? Water chiefs disagree on late year forecasts

Janjira Pongrai

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) yesterday said this year's drought period would remain for another three months before it could decide whether to allow off-season rice growing next year.

-- The Nation 2013-06-11

Helloooo, the rainy season has already started, with some really nasty thunderstorms, that have affected my TRUE satellite TV yesterday btw.....

[hellodolly]

Only two storms in the whole of August-November?

Somebody has been consulting their fortune teller.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Fortune tellers would be an improvement on what we have now for government.

[hellodolly]

Sounds to me like they are trying to limit the amount of rice that can be grown.

Give them time to build more storage facilities and more money to pay for the unsellable rice.

[MikeOboe57]

[...] the Thai Meteorological Department was prepared to see that the seasonal rice-growing got sufficient water and then would decide in

September-October whether the off-season rice growing scheme for 2013-2014 was doable or not.

Do we see here the first feeble attempts to limit the amount of low quality rice entering the Government's pledging scam?

edit: too slow, thanks HD

Edited June 11, 2013 by MikeOboe57