Thai bourse may rocket to 1700 points next year

[yoshiwara]

only time will tell who has the best precognition

An empty statement. However if one thinks the SET or any other index will achieve a particular figure within a year's time, then one can buy a Call or equivalent in order to place a bet.

The market in effect will have calculated odds on that prediction happening. The mistake which many forum contributors make is to consider predictions purely in terms of a binary yes/no happening. Investors and traders do not work that way. One calculates the odds and those odds shift over a period of time. Time shows if one has gained or lost on the money invested. The prediction on its own means nothing.

Edited October 17, 2013 by yoshiwara

[little mary sunshine]

"As I gaze into my "Crystal Ball"....fingers crossed ..

[fletchsmile]

Are you guys with dividend paying Stocks/Shares paying the 10% non-resident Tax?

Any legal way around that?

BTW ... I'm also a big BTS fan.

I'm usually resident, so in years where not working I elect to have dividends paid gross and pay at my marginal rate of tax. In years where I work it's better to pay the 10% flat.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

[CPH]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

In a few month there is a new US debt crisis to overcome, and after that the FED will start tapering. This will draw capital from emerging markets back to the US similarly to what happened in June this year. There is a small window from now until Fed tapering starts in probably March 2014, after that I would stay out of Emerging markets.

[jbrain]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

Ah, nice to meet another investor who always know everything AFTER the facts have happened.

Would you have told any investor between 94 and 97 that the Asian crisis was on it's way and they should stay out of the market, because they would not recover their money in the next 12 to 15 year ?

I don't think so, you would have told him same as you said in post #12

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

And you think the 97 Asian crisis was one time event that can never happen again ? So you think that Asia is superior to the US and the rest of the world where such crisis has happened many times already. Ever heard the praise, history repeats itself ?

Did you notice that the market was at almost the same level as 1997 before it began to lapse in early this year and that so far Asia is the only Geographic area in the world that so far has escaped the Worldwide economic crisis ? You're not gonna believe that the China bubble not gonna burst and drag the whole of Asia and the rest of the world with it, do you ?

Even if China can keep it's bubble inflated for some longer, everything is in the cards that Thailand not gonna keep up with it's prognosis, as their are certain people at the top emptying the country and telling more lies every day.

The first disappointments have shown already, with their much lower than expected growth and export figures, and that is if we even can believe the announced figures are even close to the real number.

[jbrain]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

I only wanted to show your white lie, something the current government and you seem to think is normal, but most other people not.

7 out of 10 people who picked a month-end at random and invested in the SET for a 5 year period between 1975 and today would have got back more than they invested.

So I guess 1994 to about 1998 was not between 1975 and today than.

Edited October 17, 2013 by jbrain

[fletchsmile]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

I only wanted to show your white lie, something the current government and you seem to think is normal, but most other people not.

7 out of 10 people who picked a month-end at random and invested in the SET for a 5 year period between 1975 and today would have got back more than they invested.

So I guess 1994 to about 1998 was not between 1975 and today than.

Now you're just showing your ignorance. Firstly there's no white lie - and you might want to think carefully before accusing people of lying where your intellect obviously isn't up to the topic at hand.

To simplify for you and explain: There are 402 full periods of 5 years using month ends in that 38 and a half year-ish period. 284 would have made money and 118 lost. 284/402 = approx 70%. 70% can be simplified as 7 out of 10 when talking random samples. BTW in case you're wondering there are 462 months but the first almost 5 years (almost 60 months are not full periods)

So 7 out of 10 people who picked a 5 year period at random during that 38 year period made money.

Most of the 3 out of 10 or 30% were obviously in the period around the Asian crisis. duh I would have thought that was obvious, but I guess not

Edited October 17, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

Ah, nice to meet another investor who always know everything AFTER the facts have happened.

Would you have told any investor between 94 and 97 that the Asian crisis was on it's way and they should stay out of the market, because they would not recover their money in the next 12 to 15 year ?

I don't think so, you would have told him same as you said in post #12

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

And you think the 97 Asian crisis was one time event that can never happen again ? So you think that Asia is superior to the US and the rest of the world where such crisis has happened many times already. Ever heard the praise, history repeats itself ?

Did you notice that the market was at almost the same level as 1997 before it began to lapse in early this year and that so far Asia is the only Geographic area in the world that so far has escaped the Worldwide economic crisis ? You're not gonna believe that the China bubble not gonna burst and drag the whole of Asia and the rest of the world with it, do you ?

Even if China can keep it's bubble inflated for some longer, everything is in the cards that Thailand not gonna keep up with it's prognosis, as their are certain people at the top emptying the country and telling more lies every day.

The first disappointments have shown already, with their much lower than expected growth and export figures, and that is if we even can believe the announced figures are even close to the real number.

Sound like sour grapes from someone who resents others making money when they missed out. Also sounds like someone who likes to moan about Thailand and how it's not safe here to make money.

If you checked out the P/E ratios around the Asian crisis you'd notice a big difference on average compared to the P/E ratios now. One of the many criteria I look at. Another would have been the FX rates.

Crises will always happen. The not so subtle point you miss is that the same crisis doesn't happen twice, but variations on a theme do.

Thailand is a very different place today in terms of how the country is managed. The exchange rate is no longer fixed. the country has substantial reserves. The Thai banks learnt from their mistakes. In 1997 Thailand and its banking sector was in very weak shape when the sh*t hit the fan. It no longer is.

It may have also escaped your notice that Thailand came thru the "Global" Financial Crisis very well. Thai banks performed much better than the US.

So yes, from time to time Thailand will go thru crises. 97 will not repeat itself in the same way though.

BTW In the same way the late 90's and early 2000's weren't so good for Thailand's stockmarket. The first decade of this millenium was a lost one for the US. Tomyamkung vs Hamburger Crisis.

From what you write though I wouldn't be surprised if you got burnt in Thailand in the Asian crisis. Then decided Thailand was a basket case never to be invested in, so invested in the US at the start of the millenium and fully partook in the lost decade for the US stock market. Ouch...

Cheers

Fletch:)

Edited October 17, 2013 by fletchsmile

[jbrain]

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

SET chart.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Congratulations on finding the Asian crisis. I hope you weren't investing at those inflated levels.

Now ask yourself, what relevance do you think this has to your investments in Thailand going forward? Do you think another Asian Crisis is on the way?

Always a good idea to think first what you're going to use the answers for before you start doing your calculations...

Cheers

Fletch

I only wanted to show your white lie, something the current government and you seem to think is normal, but most other people not.

7 out of 10 people who picked a month-end at random and invested in the SET for a 5 year period between 1975 and today would have got back more than they invested.

So I guess 1994 to about 1998 was not between 1975 and today than.

Now you're just showing your ignorance. Firstly there's no white lie - and you might want to think carefully before accusing people of lying where your intellect obviously isn't up to the topic at hand.

To simplify for you and explain: There are 402 full periods of 5 years using month ends in that 38 and a half year-ish period. 284 would have made money and 118 lost. 284/402 = approx 70%. 70% can be simplified as 7 out of 10 when talking random samples. BTW in case you're wondering there are 462 months but the first 5 years (almost 60 months are not full periods)

So 7 out of 10 people who picked a 5 year period at random during that 38 year period made money.

Most of the 3 out of 10 or 30% were obviously in the period around the Asian crisis.

duh I would have thought that was obvious, but I guess not

Fine, your calculation is theoretical correct. Now tell us how one invests in the SET. I can't find any ETF that includes all the shares traded on the SET.

I find an ETF SET 100, which has the SET100 as underlying benchmark, but strange enough it doesn't trade similar as the SET100.

Today the SET100 is up 0.33% while the ETF is down 0.44%

http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/stockquotation.do?symbol=th100

So how does one invest in the SET index and get's the exact same result as the chart below.

Edited October 17, 2013 by jbrain

[jbrain]

Thailand is a very different place today in terms of how the country is managed. The exchange rate is no longer fixed. the country has substantial reserves. The Thai banks learnt from their mistakes. In 1997 Thailand and its banking sector was in very weak shape when the sh*t hit the fan. It no longer is..

You're right about that, Thailand is a different place, but don't forget that the same scammers are in power as prior to '97. Then it was Chavalit, Thaksin's crony, who emptied the state coffers and now it's Thaksin's sister doing the same.And yes they have foreign reserves, but didn't you read that the current government want to tank into those foreign reserves to still their 2.2 Trillion thirst ? And you think that banks with hundreds of thousands of repossessed houses on their books, which they can't sell in a lifetime at the price they paid for it, is a healthy bank?

It may have also escaped your notice that Thailand came thru the "Global" Financial Crisis very well. Thai banks performed much better than the US.

So yes, from time to time Thailand will go thru crises. 97 will not repeat itself in the same way though.

Oh yes with the support of the IMF which they paid back with a loan from Singapore. And yes future crisis will be different, they maybe worse

BTW In the same way the late 90's and early 2000's weren't so good for Thailand's stockmarket. The first decade of this millenium was a lost one for the US. Tomyamkung vs Hamburger Crisis.

From what you write though I wouldn't be surprised if you got burnt in Thailand in the Asian crisis. Then decided Thailand was a basket case never to be invested in, so invested in the US at the start of the millenium and fully partook in the lost decade for the US stock market. Ouch...

Sorry to break it for you, but I had a mutual fund Thailand which I sold before the crash And what you say now about the lost decade for the US markets, your mates are preaching exactly the same about the US markets in a few other threads as what you say about the SET. Just buy and hold and you will never lose.

Edited October 17, 2013 by jbrain

[Ulic]

I am sure there are many good investments in Thailand but with US tapering in the near future, the Thai rice pledging scheme.

Protests from rubber farmers, Thailand technically in recession, personal debt in Thailand growing. Buildings that were never

completed and crumbling from the 97 Asian financial crisis still on the books as assets (like World Com, Thai rice policy) with

no write down. It is a bold prediction that the SET will hit 1700 by the end of next year. But it could happen as long as the music

keeps playing.

[yoshiwara]

Fine, your calculation is theoretical correct. Now tell us how one invests in the SET. I can't find any ETF that includes all the shares traded on the SET.

I find an ETF SET 100, which has the SET100 as underlying benchmark, but strange enough it doesn't trade similar as the SET100.

Today the SET100 is up 0.33% while the ETF is down 0.44%

http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/stockquotation.do?symbol=th100

So how does one invest in the SET index and get's the exact same result as the chart below.

SET chart.gif

Some ETFs are in partial form synthetic ETF's. Also, buying and selling of stocks in that ETF are not necessarily reflected 1:1 in real time. And there is the added factor of pressure caused by buying and selling of the ETF itself. I cannot comment on the specific ETF you refer to, but the assumption that ETFs are a 'vanilla' way to hold stocks is not necessarily an accurate one.

[johnkypri]

Monkey's could be re-writing the entire literary works of William Shakespeare over the next in one of an infinite number of parallel universes.

[Arkady]

It may also rocket down to 800 but brokers make a lot more money from being bullish than bearish.

[JoeThePoster]

Bourse ? Who uses this word ????

Bores.

[Arkady]

Are you guys with dividend paying Stocks/Shares paying the 10% non-resident Tax?

Any legal way around that?

BTW ... I'm also a big BTS fan.

Withholding tax of 10% is deducted from dividends regardless of whether the recipient is based in Thailand or offshore. There is a partial way around that but only for resident individual investors who don't hold stock via NVDRs. You can declared all the dividends in your year end tax filing to the Revenue Department and you will received some sort of a refund according to a complex formula that takes into account your top marginal rate of tax and the company's tax rate. Basically the less income you have and the higher the company's tax rate, the more you will get back. Of course it the reduction of corporate income tax from 30% to 20% makes these rebates a bit less but still worth having. The disadvantage for foreign investors is that you have to hold foreign registered stock and can't use NVDRs which means your portfolio's price cannot be properly updated in the case of most stocks that don't regularly trade on the foreign board.

[Arkady]

Bourse ? Who uses this word ????

Bores.

The Frogs use it, as in "Ou est la bourse de ma tante."

Otherwise only journalists.

[fletchsmile]

Fine, your calculation is theoretical correct. Now tell us how one invests in the SET. I can't find any ETF that includes all the shares traded on the SET.

I find an ETF SET 100, which has the SET100 as underlying benchmark, but strange enough it doesn't trade similar as the SET100.

Today the SET100 is up 0.33% while the ETF is down 0.44%

http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/stockquotation.do?symbol=th100

So how does one invest in the SET index and get's the exact same result as the chart below.

SET chart.gif

Sounds like you don't fully understand what you've invested in. Plenty of reasons your ETF may not correlate 100% with the index.

Yoshi pointed out a few.

Perhaps if you told us which one, we can help you as to why.

If you want to replicate the SET there's a variety of ways to come close, ETFs (the right ones) are one, index funds another, even a selection of the key shares will correlate quite highly. All these methods will slightly underperform long term though because of charges

Cheers

Fletch:)

[fletchsmile]

Thailand is a very different place today in terms of how the country is managed. The exchange rate is no longer fixed. the country has substantial reserves. The Thai banks learnt from their mistakes. In 1997 Thailand and its banking sector was in very weak shape when the sh*t hit the fan. It no longer is..

You're right about that, Thailand is a different place, but don't forget that the same scammers are in power as prior to '97. Then it was Chavalit, Thaksin's crony, who emptied the state coffers and now it's Thaksin's sister doing the same.And yes they have foreign reserves, but didn't you read that the current government want to tank into those foreign reserves to still their 2.2 Trillion thirst ? And you think that banks with hundreds of thousands of repossessed houses on their books, which they can't sell in a lifetime at the price they paid for it, is a healthy bank?

It may have also escaped your notice that Thailand came thru the "Global" Financial Crisis very well. Thai banks performed much better than the US.

So yes, from time to time Thailand will go thru crises. 97 will not repeat itself in the same way though.

Oh yes with the support of the IMF which they paid back with a loan from Singapore. And yes future crisis will be different, they maybe worse

BTW In the same way the late 90's and early 2000's weren't so good for Thailand's stockmarket. The first decade of this millenium was a lost one for the US. Tomyamkung vs Hamburger Crisis.

From what you write though I wouldn't be surprised if you got burnt in Thailand in the Asian crisis. Then decided Thailand was a basket case never to be invested in, so invested in the US at the start of the millenium and fully partook in the lost decade for the US stock market. Ouch...

Sorry to break it for you, but I had a mutual fund Thailand which I sold before the crash And what you say now about the lost decade for the US markets, your mates are preaching exactly the same about the US markets in a few other threads as what you say about the SET. Just buy and hold and you will never lose.

FWIW:

1) Actually there has been a shift in power. Thaksin and his family are by no means the same elite cronies as 97.

I think you'll find the level of NPLs on Thai bank books has significantly improved in the last decade or so. Maybe a small increase in the last year or 2 but nowhere near the disaster you imply.

Would be very interested to know which bank you think has hundreds of thousands of repossessed homes on its books. I've worked for 3 banks here and none of them have balance sheets like you imply are there now. 15 years ago perhaps.

2) Think you're mixing up your crises. The "Global Financial Crisis" was around 2008. The IMF bailout was the "Asian Financial Crisis" '97. Thailand did not need any sort of bailout from Singapore IMF or anyone else for the GFC, which is what I wrote

3) Do you wear a tin foil hat? believing the world is out to get you.

Not sure who "my mates on other thread preaching about the US" are. I have a totally different opinion of the US. Since around 2000 my US equity allocation has consistently been under 5%. Thailand is now around 40%. So these imaginary mates you are seeing colluding against you don't exactly fit reality.

Similarly you talked of "white lies" and linking me with the same as government views. My views are my own. I've no need or incentive whatsoever to paint a picture any other way than I see it. No need for untruths or to make things better than they are. No links to the government.

If I recall you wanted an idea of people who had made money and lost money. I simply gave you some averages over the last 38 years, over a 5 year horizon. Saying 7 out of 10 people hardly shows a biased picture. On the other hand picking a crisis is some what biased, I would have thought most people realised that if you pick the period before a crisis or crash then you will lose money - hardly a revelation - but maybe you've just worked it out.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited October 18, 2013 by fletchsmile