Beware not just amnesty, but the B2-trn borrowing bill, and the rest: Thai opinion

[Ulic]

Just curious, what will the government numbers look like after the 2 trillion infrastructure project.

[Thait Spot]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

That hits the nail firmly on the head

[phantomfiddler]

Great article telling it as is.

Actually it's a pathetic article with numerous errors.Its centrepiece is a Forbes article predicting a 1977 style crash.Since there was no such crash in 1977 one's confidence in its integrity is not exactly enhanced.I follow for business reasons several reputable political and economic forecasters.The political outlook is indeed very uncertain but Thailand's economic position, while facing some challenges, is very soild.If the US and Europe had Thailand's economic strength and resilience, its leaders would be delighted.

I was under the impression the last crash of note was in 1997, 20 years after. The good old british pound made 98 bht just for one afternoon

[phantomfiddler]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

The BBC and CNN still are

Especially the BBC ! I totally lost respect for them as an accurate portrayer of what is actually happening during the riots a couple of years back. "and here we see the redshirts streaming into Bangkok determined to fight for democracy" ! My a**e ! determined to get 1,000 bht a day from Meg A. Lomaniac !

[Ned]

Bangkokers money going to the provinces and villages! No!!!

[Dap]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

Whoa! Great article, not pulling any punches

[Ned]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

[jayboy]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[thaicbr]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

So the article WASN'T in Forbes magazine?

[Prbkk]

On the contrary, it's very mainstream..notwithstanding what you might have read in a Moody's report. There will be no soft landing here if these policies are retained and WHEN QE ends, major downside for the markets and the Baht ( which in the longer term might be a good thing but initially quite painful...for everyone).

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[jayboy]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

So the article WASN'T in Forbes magazine?

Er, yes but it wasn't an editorial, just the view of a contracted journalist who sees bubbles everywhere.

[jayboy]

On the contrary, it's very mainstream..notwithstanding what you might have read in a Moody's report. There will be no soft landing here if these policies are retained and WHEN QE ends, major downside for the markets and the Baht ( which in the longer term might be a good thing but initially quite painful...for everyone).

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

It's not just Moodys but the overwhelming consensus on the Thai economy.Doesn't of course make it infallible and in any case all agree there are some tricky challenges - including the international factors that Thailand cannot influence - such as the the impact of the US ending QE which you rightly mention.But Thailand is much better placed than most countries and the Baht is fairly valued.I know nothing about your politics but many on this forum are hoping for an economic disaster as a way of discrediting the current government.If the Democrats were power and the economiuc indicators/decision making were the same I suspect they wouldn't be so vocal.What seems to be evident that many seem not to understand there is a huge amount of unanimity between the political parties on economic and financial management.In particular the excellent upper level bureaucrats provide continuity and keep rogue politicians at bay.No doubt some will continue to predict cataclysmic economic disaster for Thailand but the evidence doesn't back them.

[Prbkk]

I'm looking at this from a very simple economic perspective ang ignoring the politics( other than the crazy subsidy). I do not see a strong economy now. I do believe that a correction is inevitable and that the Baht will need to depreciate to return Thailand to a level playing field. My apprehension is that the BOT could respond by increasing interest rates, with very painful results. The Baht is 10-15% overvalued and the SET is at crazy levels . So, I beg to differ

quote name="jayboy" post="7015923" timestamp="1383912691"]

On the contrary, it's very mainstream..notwithstanding what you might have read in a Moody's report. There will be no soft landing here if these policies are retained and WHEN QE ends, major downside for the markets and the Baht ( which in the longer term might be a good thing but initially quite painful...for everyone).

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

It's not just Moodys but the overwhelming consensus on the Thai economy.Doesn't of course make it infallible and in any case all agree there are some tricky challenges - including the international factors that Thailand cannot influence - such as the the impact of the US ending QE which you rightly mention.But Thailand is much better placed than most countries and the Baht is fairly valued.I know nothing about your politics but many on this forum are hoping for an economic disaster as a way of discrediting the current government.If the Democrats were power and the economiuc indicators/decision making were the same I suspect they wouldn't be so vocal.What seems to be evident that many seem not to understand there is a huge amount of unanimity between the political parties on economic and financial management.In particular the excellent upper level bureaucrats provide continuity and keep rogue politicians at bay.No doubt some will continue to predict cataclysmic economic disaster for Thailand but the evidence doesn't back them.

[waza]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

So the article WASN'T in Forbes magazine?

Er, yes but it wasn't an editorial, just the view of a contracted journalist who sees bubbles everywhere.

So Forbes editorial staff put a disclaimer on the article, because this journalist is a wacko and "sees bubbles everywhere"?

Thailand: Monitoring for signs of a real estate bubble - Oxford ...

Booming Thai banks wary of credit bubble | Reuters

Economic bubbles are back to haunt Thailand - The Nation

Household Loans Spark Fears of a Property Bubble in Thailand | CEIC

Three Thai tycoons are warning of a nascent economic bubble ...

Edited November 8, 2013 by waza

[Bluespunk]

Bangkok post today has article claiming the BAAC is owed around 540 billion baht by this inept government because of rice lunacy. Good luck getting that back boys.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Bluespunk

[jpeg]

Of course it's a typo.I took that merely as an example of slovenly journalism.There are many other errors and misjudgements (in The Nation piece not the Forbes article which I haven't seen.Anyone able to link?)You mention Moodys.Actually my company subscribes to the full Thailand report and while, as I mentioned earlier there are some challenges in Thailand, the overall view is very favourable.None of this means I endorse all this government's economic policies (I don't - especially the rice pledge support scheme) but it is important not to exaggerate.The infrastructure plan of this government is in fact supported by the Democrats, the objection being to off balance sheet funding.

My suggestion is to throw out PTP, abandon the rice scheme, and put the the THB200 billion/year saved to infrastructure development. After 11 years, the THB2.2 trillion will be achieved without the subsequent 39 years (PTP estimate) of crippling repayments. If your forecast is correct, everything will be rosy.

And good and affordable HEALTH. HEALTH HEALTH (shove your bullet train where the sun don't shine. H.E.A.L.T.H!!!!!!

Anyone took a look inside a govt hospital?

[midas]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

" t's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies."

[metisdead]

Inflammatory posts have been removed.

[Emptyset]

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

It's certainly beginning to look that way both home and abroad.

This is a pretty scathing critique of the Shinawats. Won't make pleasant reading in Dubai or Norway or Hong Kong.

"The bill might have gotten further if it had also applied to people charged with lese-majeste, which mandates prison sentences as long as 15 years for defaming or insulting the king, queen, heir apparent or regent." Hmmm, he obviously doesn't know *that* much about Thailand. Arguably it's still easier to get Thaksin pardoned that it is to pardon people with LM. I think a lot of the article is true, but in a banal way for anyone that regularly reads, say, the Thaivisa forum, a lot of that is just obvious. I also think it both overestimates the damage populism has done to the economy - no sign of that during the TRT tenure, quite the opposite, in fact - even if we accept that more could've been done in terms of strengthening economic fundamentals and shifting the economy away from agriculture. Much of the problem with the policies now is the corruption and implementation of the policies, not the impetus behind them.

Perhaps it also underestimates the positive effect some of Thaksin's policies had in terms of Thailand's future: things like the 30 baht healthcare scheme shouldn't be overlooked or dismissed blithely as empty populism. I prefer traditional mechanisms of wealth redistribution as practice in European social democracies to micro credit and the like, but the effort to craft policies that appeal to the rural voter for pretty much the first time in Thai history was highly significant in itself (previously it was simply vote buying and the old politics of patronage that won votes). That's what's changed Thai politics, imo, for the better - long term anyway - you can't just ignore a significant section of the populace if you want to win the election now. Still, I wouldn't expect a Bloomberg columnist with a fiscally conservative perspective to be overly concerned with the plight of the rural poor.

On a similar vein, I just read an interesting comment by Dr Charles Keyes, an anthropologist who's been studying Thailand since the 1960s, here's the latter part of it: "... the fact remains that Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party (the predecessor of the Pheu Thai Party) did serve as the catalyst for the emergence of a strong sense of rural empowerment, especially in the rural NE. I have developed this argument much more fully in my forthcoming book, FINDING THEIR VOICE: NORTHEASTERN VILLAGERS AND THE THAI STATE (to be published by Silkworm next year). As I think I demonstrate well in the book, most NE villagers have supported TRT and PT not because they believe that Thaksin is an ideal leader or because they have been bought, but because they have made the rational decision that no other party — certainly not the Democrat – really listens to or understands their concerns. This said, I have long been critical of Thaksin for his violation of human rights and his self-serving approach to politics. It is sad that an amnesty bill is being promoted that serves the political ends of Thaksin and some of his (non-rural) coterie of supporters rather than being predicated on the principles of justice and accountability."

[Emptyset]

Forbes reckons that the Thai bubble will burst once China's does.....and when interest rates rise globally. So that's going to happen eh? What about the West's addiction and dependence to QE. That's going to end soon too , is it?

It's not a Forbes editorial view but one of a particular person who specialises in predicting bubbles.He sees bubbles in several places including Malaysia.It's interesting enough but it's not mainstream thinking and certainly not the view of major credit agencies.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Just read the Forbes article. Notable that all the trends highlighted seem to have continued unabated throughout the Abhisit government too, so if there is something wrong, it's not just down to something PT has done in the last two years. I don't claim to know much about economics, but one of the indicates that seems especially worrying is the household debt to GDP ratio. On the one hand, it seems a marker of a succesful economy, with many European countries and the US experiencing rocketing hh debt to GDP ratios in the boom years. But of course, that ended in catastrophe for many of those countries. Thailand's is still relatively low compared to Europe and the US, but in Asia it looks like only Taiwan and Malaysia are higher and both seem to have a relative buffer against that compared to Thailand due to higher savings. So as a layman looking at this, it seems there may be cause for concern. Though it also seems that national debt to GDP is also still pretty low. Most of Europe, the US are have debt ratios of double, triple or, in Japan's case quadruple that of Thailand. So perhaps some of the shrill cries of debt apocalypse are as yet unwarranted in Thailand's case.

Still, without a serious effort towards genuine redistribution, so that people have money to buy things without relying on credit all the time, how do you drive growth without total reliance on exports? Part of the reason that ratio is so high is the reliance on cheap credit to keep aggregate demand high, trying to keep money circulating through local economies which in turn boosts SMEs etc.

One of the reasons for increased levels of household debt in the US and Europe was the collapse in real wages after the post-1979 economic restructuring and collapse of union power (Thatcher - Reagan era). People didn't have enough money to save and pay for things from their own pocket anymore, so the market was flooded with cheap credit in order to keep the economy ticking and to keep consumer demand high. Of course, in Thailand, the min wage got a significant boost recently and many would probably argue it'd be detrimental over all if it were much higher than it is now. So what other mechanisms do you use to put money in people's pockets other than credit?

Keeping GDP growth high is important, because I think it's been shown that beneath a threshold national income (after which income inequality becomes a more important factor), GDP is the most important factor in reducing poverty and improving outcomes for the poorest people on a range of indicators.

[Emptyset]

Seems much more bravery in criticizing the government now. Finally some common sense stating how it really is rather than bowing to the powerful government and trying to appease them.

I think the 'bravery' thing is more a projection of yours rather than reflecting any actual shift in The Nation's stance. Look at the author's other articles - it seems she's been writing the same article pretty much every month for the past two years.

[hellodolly]

The administration is fast reaching its used by date, hopefully it will be disbanded before the next election and a truly democratic government can come to power, not another rebranded Thaksin proxy government

A new election will see the same people in government. It will be a PTP / coalition government, except with PTP not having the majority of seats.

I sadly have to agree with you. But there is hope they will be as weakened as the |Democrats were with all the other people having to be paid off.

My suggestion is to throw out PTP, abandon the rice scheme, and put the the THB200 billion/year saved to infrastructure development. After 11 years, the THB2.2 trillion will be achieved without the subsequent 39 years (PTP estimate) of crippling repayments. If your forecast is correct, everything will be rosy.

The bonus to your idea is that maybe in 11 years there will be the need for the Fast trains. As it stands now there is no need for them on the proposed routes. (mind you I would love to ride in one) In the mean time they can bring the whole rail system up to currently accepted safety standards.

The farce has even caught Bloombergs notice today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

Not many people left that are fooled by clan Shinawat.

Just wanted to reiterated your Bloomberg article. A truly non partisan article from the out side with nothing to gain. It focused on The years Thaksin had control of the Government including this one.

It was in fact to the Thaksin lovers a very good article it did not mention several of his atrocities.