Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: Thailand

[bigbamboo]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

Well the warnings have been out for two or three days, not long enough to enable most tourists to change their plans, and Thailand expects around 2 million a month.

So you reckon 300000 cancellations is accurate?

[thailiketoo]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

Well the warnings have been out for two or three days, not long enough to enable most tourists to change their plans, and Thailand expects around 2 million a month.

So you reckon 300000 cancellations is accurate?

I would say it was more than 200,000 and less than 500,000. Whatever thousands of poor Thai families will go out of business because of it causing them to send their daughters to Pattaya and try and find a Chinese husband or Japanese sugar daddy.

[F430murci]

Oh good lord. Based on the mentality of these replies is there any wonder Tha politics is such a disaster?

[assayer]

Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- On-going protests have caused the number of foreign tourist to drop by 300,000 so far, the permanent secretary for Tourism and Sports said Wednesday.

Suwat Sitthilor, the permanent secretary, said the drop of foreign tourists had caused the country to lose about Bt16 billion in what it should have received from the foreign tourists.

The damage would be higher if the protests continued until the end of next month, Suwat said.

But, But, But, They said there was no drop in tourism numbers, no hotel cancellations, and no loss of income!!!!!

[Bagwan]

Rather than join in the bickering like big kids about the actual number of stay aways I query the reason given for the shortfall in Thai expectations. Who decides why people have changed their mind? Perhaps a large number have been advised that Thailand is not overly safe and that scamming is a national pastime. Putting the entire blame on those who are thoroughly teed off with the current maladministration smacks of opportunistic political BS.

[malcyx]

I just realised that I'm not sure if the Thais use the US or UK standard in defining a billion. Is it 10⁹ or 10¹² ??

Anyway, dividing the 16 billion baht into the 300,000 lost tourists, it works out to be circa 53,000 baht per tourist on the US scale, or 5.3M Baht on the UK scale. It's a pretty good guess they use the US scale on that basis.

So the government is assuming that each tourist spends 53k Baht on their visit here on average. I guess that seems about right for a 10 day holiday.

So much for the two week millionaires - they're obviously overstating their financial position!! width=20 alt=blink.png>

I made same calculations as you sir.

its 53k baht does not matter where you come from .. uk billion is same as usa , has been since mid seventies 555

I think its a seriously low estimation as far as the spending goes.. (if indeed the 300 000 is anywhere near correct).

peace to all you people in Thailand

[bigbamboo]

Rather than join in the bickering like big kids about the actual number of stay aways I query the reason given for the shortfall in Thai expectations. Who decides why people have changed their mind? Perhaps a large number have been advised that Thailand is not overly safe and that scamming is a national pastime. Putting the entire blame on those who are thoroughly teed off with the current maladministration smacks of opportunistic political BS.

Of course it is but that's what politicians do.

The first time the blame can be laid squarely at the opposition's door and the first time tourist numbers suffer. Hardly a coincidence.

[Choonpon]

If the thai protestors are able to understand what they are doing now hurt their country's economy and many many many fellow countrymen's livelihood.

[Thai at Heart]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

They have 300k less arrivals in a weeks duration.

Pattaya must be a ghost town. The resorts must be like ghost towns.

[thailiketoo]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

They have 300k less arrivals in a weeks duration.

Pattaya must be a ghost town. The resorts must be like ghost towns.

2012 average 423,076 per week unweighted average more in high season. So that still leaves about 100,000 arrived in Pattaya.

[jonclark]

Three hundred thousand lost tourists already?

Borrocks!

So how many have not come already? If you know the number is wrong surly you must know the correct number. The correct number is?

The correct number is there are 87 more tourists this year when TAT compared this year with this time last year. Don't ask me how i know I just do - trust me!!

See the problem thailiketoo.

You can't and shouldn't believe everything you hear.

Especially when the truth (of maybe <10'000 cancellations). has been sandpapered into a lie (of >300'000 cancellations).

Let me ask you this question. What evidence is there that the protests have caused the alleged drop. Perhaps it's just coincidence? Christmas is coming and perhaps people just don;t have the money? So prove to me the protest caused this alleged drop? Can you?

You can't;anymore than people can disprove the 300'000 number. In situations people rely on common sense and experience to make an informed assessment of the evidence presented.

And clearly the numbers are complete propaganda aimed at getting some leverage for the government to respond to the tsunami of disapproval its facing; to give it some solid ground to mount a defense of sorts.

[thailiketoo]

The correct number is there are 87 more tourists this year when TAT compared this year with this time last year. Don't ask me how i know I just do - trust me!!

See the problem thailiketoo.

You can't and shouldn't believe everything you hear.

Especially when the truth (of maybe <10'000 cancellations). has been sandpapered into a lie (of >300'000 cancellations).

Let me ask you this question. What evidence is there that the protests have caused the alleged drop. Perhaps it's just coincidence? Christmas is coming and perhaps people just don;t have the money? So prove to me the protest caused this alleged drop? Can you?

You can't;anymore than people can disprove the 300'000 number. In situations people rely on common sense and experience to make an informed assessment of the evidence presented.

And clearly the numbers are complete propaganda aimed at getting some leverage for the government to respond to the tsunami of disapproval its facing; to give it some solid ground to mount a defense of sorts.

Look at the airport arrivals. How many? How many countries have travel warnings? Easy to figure if one has access to the airport figures from this year and November 2012.

[thailiketoo]

Rather than join in the bickering like big kids about the actual number of stay aways I query the reason given for the shortfall in Thai expectations. Who decides why people have changed their mind? Perhaps a large number have been advised that Thailand is not overly safe and that scamming is a national pastime. Putting the entire blame on those who are thoroughly teed off with the current maladministration smacks of opportunistic political BS.

December 8, 1941. I suppose less people vacationed in Hawaii because of bad weather? There are a million people running around in the streets. You don't think this is getting international coverage. Maybe you are an old guy but check out facebook.

[jonclark]

The correct number is there are 87 more tourists this year when TAT compared this year with this time last year. Don't ask me how i know I just do - trust me!!

See the problem thailiketoo.

You can't and shouldn't believe everything you hear.

Especially when the truth (of maybe <10'000 cancellations). has been sandpapered into a lie (of >300'000 cancellations).

Let me ask you this question. What evidence is there that the protests have caused the alleged drop. Perhaps it's just coincidence? Christmas is coming and perhaps people just don;t have the money? So prove to me the protest caused this alleged drop? Can you?

You can't;anymore than people can disprove the 300'000 number. In situations people rely on common sense and experience to make an informed assessment of the evidence presented.

And clearly the numbers are complete propaganda aimed at getting some leverage for the government to respond to the tsunami of disapproval its facing; to give it some solid ground to mount a defense of sorts.

Look at the airport arrivals. How many? How many countries have travel warnings? Easy to figure if one has access to the airport figures from this year and November 2012.

Airport arrival up 22% year on year for November - google it!! I just did.

FYI countries have not advised against traveling to Thailand they have advised tourist to be cautious and not travel to the areas of protest. Not cancel their holidays to Thailand. Oddly the majority of the advisories were issued after the government issued a blanket ISA for Bangkok....hmmmm

[Thai at Heart]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

They have 300k less arrivals in a weeks duration.

Pattaya must be a ghost town. The resorts must be like ghost towns.

2012 average 423,076 per week unweighted average more in high season. So that still leaves about 100,000 arrived in Pattaya.

Nationwide?

[Tokay]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

[thailiketoo]

No. 423 thousand is just 22 million divided by 52 and does not take into consideration that the high season would be closer to 500 thousand and the low season closer to 300 thousand. Russians still fly into Utapao and not Bangkok I think. I would imagine from what I am hearing the big drop when people outside Thailand start to figure out that the people who closed the airport are the same ones causing this disturbance.

Edited November 27, 2013 by thailiketoo

[thailiketoo]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

[orchidlady]

It would be interesting to know how many Chinese tourists Thailand has lost since their government outlawed the "zero Baht" tours. The largest number of tourists that come from any one country are Chinese so this could be substantial. The Russians threatened to move their tourists to adjoining countries based on scams and safety issues. There has been plenty of publicity that DSI wants to clean up the jewel scams in Bangkok and Phuket. For the government to state that I think there had to be some substantial drop off in tourists.

So if we could get those numbers and subtract from the figure the government is stating-that would be due solely to political situation. That is how a proper analysis of variance is conducted. Based on the lack of transparency in the rice and other financial schemes I don't expect this information from the government. To claim this figure as solely due to the political situation is a convenient scapegoat for the government for political advantage. Now cancellations after yesterday or today (on onward) could accurately be counted as due to the political situation since the protests have taken a different direction with the sit ins and taking over the offices.

[monkeycountry]

To Monkey. Sorry I didn't notice. My posts was directed and I quoted bigbamboo. I have no desire to engage you in a logic argument. If you know the Thai numbers are wrong post the right ones. If not I don't see the purpose of a discussion with you.

I would not discuss logic if I was you either :-)

Anyway, the right numbers are 800 tourists, causing an estimated loss of 3 million baht. My source is the same as the one referred to by khun Suwat Sitthilor in the OP. Hope this helps.

Sorry afraid you lied. Suwat did not list a source for his information. Whatever you know you made up. 300,000 may be accurate it may not. There are two points. 1. Whatever it is it is bad for the economy and Thailand. 2. You are not in a position to know more about tourism in Thailand than a minister who has access to arrival and departure information at the airport. What is your reason for trying to diminish the damage to the Thai economy?

I am aware there is no source, that was the point of my post, which unfortunately you did not get. The point is these officials pull numbers out of a hat whenever it suits them, which is why khun Suwat Sitthilor did not mention a source. I can do that too, as I showed you in my post.

khun Suwat Sitthilor, who is not a minister btw, cannot possibly have used arrivals at the airport to come up with this number, as 300,000 less arrivals in about a week would mean the airport is more or less empty. He also cannot have used cancellations, as the airlines do not provide these numbers to the ministry, and even if they did, they would definitely not do it on a weekly basis. Hotel cancellations cannot be used for the same reasons. That leaves the question, what source did he use. I guess he used the same as me - none!

Further, unlike khun Suwat Sitthilor, I have no motive for producing fake numbers. khun Suwat Sitthilor may be motivated to exaggerate the numbers to upset the tourism industry, which is mostly in Bangkok and the south (democrat voters), in order to get the tourist industry to put pressure on the anti government demonstrators to get them to go home.

Last but not least, the PTP has publicly admitted they are not capable of calculating losses (rice scam), so why should we suddenly trust they are capable of calculating losses now - and really fast too? Is it not likely that even if they have the raw numbers (which they don't yet), that they are incapable of processing them, and instead just make them up, knowing that enough voters (including you) will believe whatever they say anyway without question?

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[monkeycountry]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

I see you do not know much about how the TAT works. Yes, the TAT is part of the government, but it also has it's own agenda. High tourist numbers generally tells the government that the TAT does a good job, which means more funding for the TAT next year. And like you, the government does not question the numbers given by the TAT. The TAT is infamous for pushing up the numbers for that exact reason, and if you ever talk to hotel managers, even at big hotel chains, you will find that not a single one of them believes anything the TAT says - including Thai hotel managers. They are providing raw numbers to more reliable private agencies and associations who then process the figures for them.

Edited November 27, 2013 by monkeycountry

[coralia]

No worries. Quality Chinese tourists are always an option.

Asian tourists are the first to get scared and cancel their trips whenever there is trouble.

[oogster8]

15 November: ATTA says protest not yet affect tourism

27 November: Protests cause number of foreign tourists to drop by 300,000: permanent secretary

Come on chaps, get your story straight.

Tourist stopeed cumming on Nov 16. Make cents to me.

[soomak]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

[monkeycountry]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

Please do let me know how the TAT knows the cancellation numbers? Only the hotels and airlines know these numbers, and besides perhaps THAI Airways, they are not reporting them to the TAT daily or weekly. In fact as far as I know they do not report them at all.

[Thai at Heart]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

[airconsult]

How was this determined? From ticket cancellations?

It can't be due to hotel cancellations because we were told just a couple of days ago that there haven't been any.

Today is Wednesday. The protests began when? Last week? Last week they were claiming that the protests won't have any effect. 22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week? Now someone is telling some porkie pies. Are the resorts or the airports a complete wasteland?

I really wonder who these statements are aimed at anyway? The international press? Do they care? The thai hoteliers? Well they know whether they are full or not? The general public? What do they care? They have had tsnumais and floods to deal with. Who cares whether Thailand has 21 or 22mn tourists?

You ask "22mn tourists is approximately, wait for it, 423,000 per week. So they have seen a 75% drop in a week?"

Well, as I see it, the tourists "lost" is by counting both arrivals and cancellations, which can spread over the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more.

If the number of tourists expected in the last 5 weeks of 2013 was 2.5 million (it's high season), than a 300,000 drop is only 12% - and this seems reasonable.

Please do let me know how the TAT knows the cancellation numbers? Only the hotels and airlines know these numbers, and besides perhaps THAI Airways, they are not reporting them to the TAT daily or weekly. In fact as far as I know they do not report them at all.

APIS - advance passenger information system.

Generally used by immigration (so they know who is turning up when and if necessary have done background checks) but a sanitized version of the data - just numbers - is generally available to other bodies to allow for planning purposes.

One of the perils of living in the modern world - as soon as you book a ticket, lot's of people know you're going somewhere.

Edited November 27, 2013 by airconsult

[thailiketoo]

I'm going to just wait and get the "official" numbers from the TAT, which will be a 200% increase in tourism since the protests began.

Since TAT is the government why would they do that? That would be the opposite impression of what they want to create. I'll simplify. Red shirts have the government and the majority. Yellow shirts want the government but don't have the majority so they want to appoint a government with no elections like Napoleon in a polo shirt sort of.

I see you do not know much about how the TAT works. Yes, the TAT is part of the government, but it also has it's own agenda. High tourist numbers generally tells the government that the TAT does a good job, which means more funding for the TAT next year. And like you, the government does not question the numbers given by the TAT. The TAT is infamous for pushing up the numbers for that exact reason, and if you ever talk to hotel managers, even at big hotel chains, you will find that not a single one of them believes anything the TAT says - including Thai hotel managers. They are providing raw numbers to more reliable private agencies and associations who then process the figures for them.

Nonsense. They all get data from the airport which is substantially down.

[thailiketoo]

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

There is a good forum to read about the current crisis called ThaiVisa. Check it out,

Countries issuing Thailand travel warnings now rise to 28

Anti-government rallies in Thailand gain momentum

Anti-government protests spread to Thai provinces

Protesters lay siege to more Thai ministries; some officials express support

UN leader Ban Ki-moon concerned by Thailand protests

The anti government protestors dumped the economy by closing the airport and now they are trying it again.

Think of the governments that have elections and now think of the governments that don't have elections. Which side are you on? Ya I know Stalin and Mao did a wonderful job.

[Thai at Heart]

So if they rebook in 3 weeks time this is a gain? So this could be 300k over 6 weeks. Aha. So barely a crisis.

There is a good forum to read about the current crisis called ThaiVisa. Check it out,

Countries issuing Thailand travel warnings now rise to 28

Anti-government rallies in Thailand gain momentum

Anti-government protests spread to Thai provinces

Protesters lay siege to more Thai ministries; some officials express support

UN leader Ban Ki-moon concerned by Thailand protests

The anti government protestors dumped the economy by closing the airport and now they are trying it again.

Think of the governments that have elections and now think of the governments that don't have elections. Which side are you on? Ya I know Stalin and Mao did a wonderful job.

And tat have quantified that 300k have cancelled in 10 days since the protests. Give it another 10 days and phuket will be a ghost town right?