Economy may expand only 2.5% on political instability: KResearch

[Lite Beer]

ECONOMY
Economy may expand only 2.5% on political instability: KResearch
The Nation

The Thai economy, reeling from high political uncertainties, will face severe downside risks next year and may register only 2.5 per cent growth rate in the worst-case scenario, Kasikorn Research Centre said.

In its research note, KResearch noted that if the political stalemate continues until the second half of 2014, domestic consumption, investment and public spending could be disrupted. In this scenario, though the export sector would pick up, the economic growth should not exceed 2.5 per cent.

In the base case scenario, the research house forecasts the 3.7 per cent growth rate.

The Thai economy has been slowing down throughout 2013. KResearch expects the full-year growth of only 2.7 per cent, compared to 6.5 per cent in the previous year. The export sector should contract for the first time in four years, with the 0.3 per cent contraction rate, despite the weakening of the baht against US dollar in the latter half of the year.

-- The Nation 2013-12-29

[JeremyBowskill]

I doubt very much that only expanding by 2.5% is the worst case scenario by any means.

[beautifulthailand99]

Baht nearly 54 to the pound now last year it dropped as low as 44.

[Costas2008]

Does that mean, that us Farangs, will be better off living in Thailand? I mean moneywise!

Me, Me First!!!!!

[beautifulthailand99]

No we will have more notional money which will buy less and a divided country on the brink of civil war - with some hot heads pointing fingers at farangs amongst others for their woes - so no looks like the decades old party for farangs (and Thailand) is reaching a head.

[Thai at Heart]

No we will have more notional money which will buy less and a divided country on the brink of civil war - with some hot heads pointing fingers at farangs amongst others for their woes - so no looks like the decades old party for farangs (and Thailand) is reaching a head.

If you think that the post 97 mess was a party you are sadly mistaken. They wanted to weaken the baht, now they have it.

Exports will bump up but so will costs. Good luck.

[tomross46]

The forecast has to do with the protest. The protest against the rampant corruption within the Shinawatra government. Why is it politicians all over the world will not take responsibility for their actions. Blame it son someone or something else. I know thr root cause for the problem Bush did it!

[Ulic]

Baht keeps falling, exports, tourism, construction, will benefit. Imports will go down. There will be a lot of grumbling

as gas/oil becomes more expensive and the added cost cause the price of food to go up. Time for a reality check

on inefficient government programs and government corruption at all levels of government, police and judicial as well.

That is both main parties. Suthep is just as corrupt as Thaksin and needs to admit the error of his parties ways

if he is to have any credibility. Otherwise it will just be a pendulum of power swinging back and forth.

[EricBerg]

Easy to make predictions without giving the essential parameters leading to that conclusion.

Fact is that the growth model has seen it's longest period on a global scale. Western countries found that out already.

Thai economy may very well shrink, as the national debt is growing fast.