The Shinawatras will not go down without a fight

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
The Shinawatras will not go down without a fight
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- The endgame in our political battle arrives on Monday, when "Occupy Bangkok" begins. Anti-government protesters will "shut down" the capital until caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is forced out of office. At this point, amid Thailand's largest-ever mass demonstrations, the Shinawatras are doomed to lose the battle and eventually the war. But at what cost?

Before we answer this question, let's consider some key elements of the current political saga:

Thaksin Shinawatra, a fugitive from justice, will never see Thailand again now that the amnesty bill has been killed.

The Constitutional Court has blocked Pheu Thai's attempt to exert complete control over the Senate so that it might gain more influence over appointments to independent bodies.

The February 2 election, even if it is held, has been boycotted so effectively that it will not be able to produce enough MPs, including party-list members, to form a new parliament.

The Constitutional Court also struck down Pheu Thai's attempt to amend Article 190 of the charter so that the government could sign international agreements without the approval of Parliament. This ruling prevents the government from handing over the U-tapao military base to the US without an open debate and approval in Parliament. Moreover, it kills Thaksin's reported multibillion-dollar secret oil deals involving international parties in the Gulf of Thailand.

The Bt2-trillion borrowing package, as well as the Bt350-billion flood-prevention project, will never see the light of the day as they run into the brick wall erected by the judicial branch.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) will be going after the Pheu Thai politicians and others embroiled in the massive corruption of the rice-pledging scheme, the water project, and their seemingly illegal attempt to amend the charter.

The Constitutional Court's rulings have far-reaching implications since government-backed politicians will be charged by the NACC and will not be able to stand in future elections. In one swoop, the governing party has once again been purged.

From the above, it is clear that Thaksin and Yingluck have lost the legal battle. There is no chance that their returning to political power, except via a coup.

Moreover, recent events have shown that the support they enjoyed from both the military and the police has weakened. Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has had a change of heart. After backing the Yingluck government all along, Prayuth this week came out to signal that the military would support the people. He warned a "third party" not to use violence against the protesters. He also said that the Yingluck government would bear full responsibility for any injuries among protesters.

Police Chief Adul Saengsingkaew has also come out to distance himself from the Din Daeng incident, in which a civilian and a policeman were killed during violent clashes in December that also left many others injured. Adul said he was not responsible for giving the order to shoot in Din Daeng, where the Election Commission was organising registration of political parties. Adul also admitted that the black-clad individuals believed to have fired live bullets into the crowd from the rooftop of the Labour Ministry nearby were police officers. Following Adul's remarks, the police forces, traditionally a power base of the Shinawatras, were in disarray as a furious round of finger-pointing broke out. Now, the police might not dare to employ force against the protesters.

But who knows? Thaksin will not yield power until the very end. If he were to lose the war in the upcoming days and weeks, he, the Shinawatras and their cronies will lose their power, and won't be able to make a comeback. Many now fear that violence is unavoidable as the pro-Thaksin camp will come out to defend the government and challenge the Suthep Thaugsuban-led Occupy movement. The latest information suggests it might not end quickly. If that is the case, it might also end ugly.


-- The Nation 2014-01-10

[EricBerg]

Well the missuderstood fugitive had some torching done when he lost Bangkok before. His revenge will be destruction and killing I fear.

[jackr]

Of course they won't, they stand to lose too much, but as long as they do go down, that's the main thing.

[moonao]

more garbage and propoganda from Thanong Khanthong and The Nation, the blatently pro yellow shirt newspaper.

[WitawatWatawit]

This is a nice summation for anyone who is not totally familiar with what's going on. Except the info on the water scheme is out of date - it's going ahead, but not before public hearings are held.

But we already know the Shins and their allies are going for broke at the expense of the people and the country. When the dust settles from this - and it's going to be very dusty indeed - I hope a shrine of shame is erected to Thaksin et al so that we never forget how megalomania is the ultimate poison.

[Nowhereman60]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

[britmaveric]

Propoganda plain and simple - shame Thailand's media can't be independent.

[Habs]

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[whybother]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

There absolutely no chance of that happening. Thaksin wouldn't come back if he had to spend a single day in jail.

[culicine]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

Hope about Suthep organises an international press conference and makes such an announcement 'I will stand down when Thaksin returns to Thailand and goes to jail. There is no way Thaksin will ever see one day in jail. Suthep will not either.

[Emptyset]

Adul also admitted that the black-clad individuals believed to have fired live bullets into the crowd from the rooftop of the Labour Ministry nearby were police officers.

Well, "believed" is the operative word here, since there's no evidence they fired live bullets.

[terryp]

there is only one outcome to all of this and it may be this year or in 10 years and that is Civil war.

Too many forigners commenting have absolutly no idea what they are talking about and really it is idiotic to read.

I hate Thaksin for what he has done to immigration policys in Thailand ..this has damaged many familys for NO reason.

Thaksin is a meglomaniac plain and simple..what the hell does a man of almost 70 need more money or power for..answer he's sick

Clear all the Shinawatras out they are parasites living off the backs of decent Thais

Thai airways being privatized is his new little play thing..all to feed his buddys on Wall St as he did with Thai OIl

[Yunla]

They will be replaced by a different dynasty of crooks, again and again, until the essential reforms on power-diffusion and consensus-enhancement measures are enacted within Parliament, to prevent abuse of power by any group, and to enforce common-sense regulatory measures to all processes within Parliament. This family and others are just exploiting the unregulated nature of the system, it will continue until greater regulation is established.

[Prbkk]

there is only one outcome to all of this and it may be this year or in 10 years and that is Civil war.

Too many forigners commenting have absolutly no idea what they are talking about and really it is idiotic to read.

I hate Thaksin for what he has done to immigration policys in Thailand ..this has damaged many familys for NO reason.

Thaksin is a meglomaniac plain and simple..what the hell does a man of almost 70 need more money or power for..answer he's sick

Clear all the Shinawatras out they are parasites living off the backs of decent Thais

Thai airways being privatized is his new little play thing..all to feed his buddys on Wall St as he did with Thai OIl

this post demonstrates the poorest understanding of Thailand and the issues facing it of all contributions, from red, yellow, neutral, clueless, over the past 3 months

[JRSoul]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

[Lite Beer]

Some hate speech posts have been removed along with replies to them

[Nowhereman60]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

Of course they will disappear. I told you the PTP will still be in power.

[JRSoul]

Adul also admitted that the black-clad individuals believed to have fired live bullets into the crowd from the rooftop of the Labour Ministry nearby were police officers.

Well, "believed" is the operative word here, since there's no evidence they fired live bullets.

That "belief" was enhanced by the original lies about their presence. Most people are aware that liars usually lie for a reason, and credibility is a very hard thing to restore. Ask the PM.

[JRSoul]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

Of course they will disappear. I told you the PTP will still be in power.

<deleted>! The charges are with the courts. It is too late to pay off a bent copper or get your pet AG to drop them.

[Prbkk]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

Even if true, that would represent small change, a drop in the ocean, relative to the enormous wealth stolen from the Thai people by the very same groups and organizations seeking a return to power ( but led by "good people"). You are completely clueless when it comes to the realities of Thai politics and power over many decades. Not the vaguest idea other than simplistic and increasingly hysterical references to Thaksin. Why do foreigners become so obsessed with what is transitory and trivial and ignore the bigger picture of organized corruption on a mega-scale? Thaksin is not THE problem here. He is a thorn in the side of those who believe their time at the trough should continue unchallenged, almost by birthright

[Emptyset]

Abu is an Arab and he is on the people's side. Why support the 200 Chinese families who have stifled the country for 100 years? End game is death to these fascist yellow fools. You westerners who support them should all be deported. Sick sick uninformed fools that u are Sent from my Lenovo A516 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

You might want to do some research on the Shinawatras.

Not only is what he said stupid. It's also wrong. He's making a false distinction. How are Chinese-Thais less 'real Thais' than, say, the Issan Lao? There were Chinese immigrants in Siam before Issan was even integrated. I guess it could be people from Issan or the North (Lanna) that Bacon is referring to when he says 'real Thais', but even in Issan and Northern villages you're likely to find people with Chinese grandparents. Bacon is actually aware that 'Thai' originally refers to an ethnolinguistic group, from, you guessed it, southwestern China, isn't he? And although the 'Tai' became the ruling class in what is now called Thailand, they were few in number compared to the Mon and Khmer.

On the other hand, whilst it's nothing more than ignorant racism to talk about 'real Thais' vs Thai-Chinese', PAD didn't sell loads of t-shirts with "Sons of China defending the nation" emblazoned on them for no reason. It is interesting to note from a sociological and political perspective that the South tends to be more urbanized and have more recent Thai-Chinese immigrants than the N and NE. Different modes of integration into Thailand are certainly relevant in the context of the current conflict, but not something to be discussed in this thread I guess. lol.

[MaxLee]

Thaksin KNOWS, he will NEVER be arrested until the day he dies, because, he's out of Thailand, his Pheu Thai goons will continue to act in his behalf, and the opposition can't reach him either anyway because he's out of Thailand and are therefore wasting their efforts and Anti government people's lives trying to oust him. Thaksin will ALWAYS have enough followers in Thailand who can jump in at any time, he gives the orders.

IF reds and yellows kill, destroy and annihilate each other in Bangkok-ONLY-Bangkok, it won't affect him anyway, 'because he ain't in Thailand anyway.

He can re-introduce the amnesty bill again and again, whenever it suits him, no matter how many times the court rejects it. The more it gets rejected, the longer Thaksin stays in power. Simple as that

Arrest warrant means: " I'll NEVER EVER BOTHER to catch you later."

[lovetotravel]

more garbage and propoganda from Thanong Khanthong and The Nation, the blatently pro yellow shirt newspaper.

Sure, it's a paper that doesn't favor the red shirts, but what is incorrect in this article. Seems many facts were clearly listed?

[Emptyset]

Adul also admitted that the black-clad individuals believed to have fired live bullets into the crowd from the rooftop of the Labour Ministry nearby were police officers.

Well, "believed" is the operative word here, since there's no evidence they fired live bullets.

That "belief" was enhanced by the original lies about their presence. Most people are aware that liars usually lie for a reason, and credibility is a very hard thing to restore. Ask the PM.

I agree. But then I tend to think the protesters would believe what they wanted regardless of how good the police's explanation was. In their recent propaganda video, they're still claiming 4 students died during the Ramkhamhaeng clash.

[JRSoul]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

Even if true, that would represent small change, a drop in the ocean, relative to the enormous wealth stolen from the Thai people by the very same groups and organizations seeking a return to power ( but led by "good people"). You are completely clueless when it comes to the realities of Thai politics and power over many decades. Not the vaguest idea other than simplistic and increasingly hysterical references to Thaksin. Why do foreigners become so obsessed with what is transitory and trivial and ignore the bigger picture of organized corruption on a mega-scale? Thaksin is not THE problem here. He is a thorn in the side of those who believe their time at the trough should continue unchallenged, almost by birthright

But, but, but............. Forget Thaksin's crimes, look at someone else's. This is the criminal currently running the country, why should I forget about his known crimes and look at the crimes YOU think MIGHT happen, or that you claim did happen without any given proof?

[edwinchester]

Adul also admitted that the black-clad individuals believed to have fired live bullets into the crowd from the rooftop of the Labour Ministry nearby were police officers.

Well, "believed" is the operative word here, since there's no evidence they fired live bullets.

The problem is who to believe? Chalerm has already said the men on the roof of his own ministry building were Suthep's own 'agent provocateurs'! Not a far stretch of the imagination that there was the possibility one was taking potshots at protesters but as far as proof goes I for one doubt the truth will ever emerge.

[JesseFrank]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

You forget that the 2 year jail-term is the only case Thaksin is convicted of, YET, but there are several more serious charges waiting to go to court .

Anyway, even if Thaksin got a blank amnesty approved, we all know that he never would return to Thailand physically as he would not live to enjoy his freedom in Thailand.

[Thait Spot]

Propoganda plain and simple - shame Thailand's media can't be independent.

Typical response.

When the Nation publishes an article that you like, you praIse it.

When it hits the nail on the head you deride it.

Which part of it do you disagree with?

[Tarric]

While the brinksmanship is likely to continue between Shincorp and Suthep's merry band of fools eventually one side will have to retreat and lick their wounds.

At this point Suthep and the democrats have paint themselves into a corner they have turned a mild political conflict into a fight for their very political existence and relevancy. If Suthep backs down the Democrats will likely be a spent force in Thai politics unless a moderate like Korn can rescue them from their self imposed oblivion.

However if Suthep gets his coup the PTP and the red shirts have the option of biding their time and letting the current political problems blow up in the army's/Suthep's face. The rice mortgage scheme, the flood prevention plan, the 2 trillion baht infrastructure package are all ticking time bombs just waiting for someone stupid enough to get in their way.

For example.

The Rice mortgage scheme - If the new potential junta removes this policy the uproar will be enormous and it will likely cost the Democrats any chance at the rural vote when the next election finally comes around. However this policy is a catch 22, if you remove it you disenfranchise the farmers, if you don't you damage Thailand's economic credibility in the eyes of the world and more importantly the debt ratings agencies which could potentially inflate borrowing costs.

The flood prevention plan - If work is halted and there is another cataclysmic flood the army will be held responsible for any deaths and would have to deal with the PTP/Red shirt alliance howling for blood.

The 2 trillion baht infrastructure plan - This is possibly the biggest political time bomb of all, I know many foreign companies are relying on the projects slated to be paid for by this plan and if they don't eventuate investor confidence in Thailand will be decimated beyond their already depressed levels. Its bad enough for companies to deal with the excessive red tape and tea money to get anything done, however when a sitting governments word can't be taken on projects that are necessary for many companies continued/increased investment in the country all of Thailand will suffer.

[whybother]

How about this if Thaksin returns to Thailand to face his jail term. That should piss off Suthep. Thaksin would serve his two years in a 4 star jail have access to his people and just control this situation from within Thailand. The PTP will stay in power and once his term is up (out after 1 and half years for good behavior) he will be back free man. I love to see the face of Suthep if this happened.

DOH! What about his other little charges, like embezzling a billion baht, do you expect them to disappear?

Even if true, that would represent small change, a drop in the ocean, relative to the enormous wealth stolen from the Thai people by the very same groups and organizations seeking a return to power ( but led by "good people"). You are completely clueless when it comes to the realities of Thai politics and power over many decades. Not the vaguest idea other than simplistic and increasingly hysterical references to Thaksin. Why do foreigners become so obsessed with what is transitory and trivial and ignore the bigger picture of organized corruption on a mega-scale? Thaksin is not THE problem here. He is a thorn in the side of those who believe their time at the trough should continue unchallenged, almost by birthright

If you're against the corruption of "the elite", why do you support someone that is simply trying to replace them?

If you're against corruption, don't be selective about which corrupt politicians you want at the top. Be against all of them.