Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts

[webfact]

Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts

BANGKOK, January 13, 2014 (AFP) - Here are key facts about Thailand's political crisis, which entered a chaotic new phase on Monday as protesters paralysed parts of central Bangkok demanding Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra resign.

Q: What are the protests about?
Thailand has been rocked by years of often-violent demonstrations by rival protest movements.

The latest protests, led by senior opposition figures, seek to curb the political dominance of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's older brother, who was ousted by royalist generals in a coup in 2006.

The protesters say Yingluck is a puppet for her brother who controls her two-year-old government from overseas, where he fled in 2008 to avoid going to jail for a corruption conviction.

The rallies were triggered by a controversial but ultimately unsuccessful amnesty bill introduced by the ruling party which could have allowed Thaksin to return to Thailand without going to prison.

The protesters want an unelected "people's council" to run the country and oversee vaguely defined electoral reforms, such as an end to alleged vote buying and profligate policies that benefit Thaksin's supporters, before new elections are held in around a year to 18 months.

Q: Who are the competing protest groups in Thailand?
The rival movements are the "Red Shirts", loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist "Yellow Shirts" who were once a major political force but are no longer active.

Yellow rallies have helped to eject Thaksin or his allies from power three times, while support from the Reds swept Yingluck to power in 2011 in the wake of a deadly military crackdown on their pro-Thaksin street protests.

The opposition protesters currently on the streets are a mixture of former Yellow Shirts, Democrat supporters, royalists, southerners, urban middle class and other Thaksin opponents.

The Red Shirts have staged rival protests, mostly in northern Thailand, in recent weeks in support of the government, accusing the opposition demonstrators of seeking to overthrow a democratically elected adminstration.

Q: What are the possible scenarios?
The government appears reluctant to use force to break up the protests. A military crackdown on the Red Shirt rallies by the previous government in 2010 left more than 90 civilians dead and nearly 1,900 wounded.

The army also has ruled out sending soldiers onto the streets to suppress the current rallies.

Yingluck has called early elections for February 2 in a bit to defuse the crisis but the opposition is boycotting the vote, saying it will only return Thaksin's allies to power, leaving the two sides deadlocked.

Protesters have prevented election candidates registering in several provinces, which could mean there are not enough MPs to select a new prime minister even if the polls go ahead.

Yingluck could postpone the election, but it seems unlikely that she would agree to a delay of more than a few months.

The Red Shirts could also decide to step up their pro-government protests, raising the risk of clashes between rival political factions.

Q: Could the army or the courts intervene?
The possibility of military intervention constantly looms over Thailand, which has seen 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932.

The head of the army -- a staunch supporter of the anti-Thaksin royalist establishment -- has repeatedly refused to rule out seizing power.

But many observers see a coup as a last resort for the military given the risk that it could provoke an uprising by the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts.

The courts also have a record of intervening in politics, dissolving parties and banning their executives, and some experts believe another "judicial coup" is the most likely scenario.

Roughly 220 politicians from Yingluck's party face impeachment by an anti-corruption panel in connection with a bid -- rejected by the Constitutional Court -- to make the upper house fully elected.

If found guilty they could be banned from politics for five years, severely undermining Yingluck's prospects of forming a new government.

The government also faces allegations of corruption in its rice subsidy scheme which could potentially be used to impeach the premier.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-01-13

[retsdon]

Of course, nowhere in the possible outcome scenarios is there one in which The Democrat party fights an election. And that's because after being a party to overthrowing the elected government they'll never win another. They've effectively committed long term political suicide for short term gain.

[xenophon]

Nice little summary, mostly avoiding bias and, of course, those looming factors we cannot discuss

[virtualtraveller]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

[Fryslan boppe]

Facts as stated from one perspective....Let us consider facts from another top-of-mind quickie perspective and let others decide which is reality:

1..What are protests all about ....Not as stated being anti-Thaksin....They are about unelectables seeking alternative paths to political power. In this case via a coup, using either military, judicial or street activism as the vehicle. Coup-mongers seeking to cover their true motives started off with the anti-amnesty thing, then to anti-Thaksin rhetoric, than anti-electoral, than Electoral delay ostensibly for vague self-serving, holier-than-thou Reform demands. Bottom line, it as all election-avoidance, coup-intentioned, using contrived issues as cover. When one issue doesn't give them traction, they move to another one. It is noted that any of these issues could be "Parliamentirized", subject to electoral review by voters the next election.

2. Who are competing protest groups?...There are no competing protest groups. There is only one protest group comprising of electoral minorities with coup intentions in order to avoid an election they will lose. They have incited opposition to their non-democratic, non-electoral plans however. Elections do not serve these people well. They are trying to change electoral systemics rather than reforming themselves to appeal to a diverse Thai electorate.

3. What are the possible scenarios?...An election on Feb. 2nd. Anything else would effectively be a coup. Certainly not pro-Govt. protests by Red Shirts as reported above. Red Shirt activism is focussed on protecting Electoral Democracy in reaction to protests by those who want it otherwise. The notion that there are two protest groups is not correct. The Govt. attempts to mollify coup-mongers short of a coup is naive. Everything from shelving legislation on the basis of which they were elected, to dissolution of Parliament is evidence of that.

4. Could the army or courts intervene. Yes they could, depending on which vehicle the Electoral Minority elites prefer. At this point, it appears that the politicized judiciary is the preferred vehicle, and a number of initiatives have already been launched by the elites in this regard. International entities would look unfavorably on a coup using the military as the enablers. I am guessing it is felt that using the politicized judiciary would create enough smoke to cover what is called a 'judicial coup', considering that internationally the judiciary is considered normal.

That is a quickie, non-comprehensive response to a Q. & A thing written from one perspective.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[tezzainoz]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

Thai wife rings me to tell me the Protest is going strong, met many new friends and some old ones

but for you red shirt lovers

She has not been able to find one person who has been paid to be their and 80% of the people she met where born in Issan

There maybe 2 agendas, as all those she spoke to all say they are protesting against Thaskin corruption, and if there was a genuine Issan Party they would vote for them

What do they need to be happy, all said that the election be but off till after the 180 days that the amnesty can be put back on the table

So forget what Yingluck or the Dems say

Put off the election to the new date made by the CC and you will see the majority of the protestors feel justice has been done

But as we all know there are many here in TV who see this as fun so they keep throwing fuel on the fire to cause problems

[notmyself]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

Yep, Thai elections are nothing more than a financial transaction with the county going to the highest bidder.

[Ulysses G.]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

Yep, Thai elections are nothing more than a financial transaction with the county going to the highest bidder.

The problem is that BOTH sides buy votes and the reds would still win if it was not allowed.

[Emptyset]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

Why would they mention that when the Democrats themselves say otherwise? The Democrats are not short of money and according to ECT figures spent more than PT in the last election. It's just not true at this point that Thaksin wins because he has more money. That may have been a factor in 2001, not so much since then. I think people know this but need to cling to the vote buying myth to justify supporting an unelected council.

[notmyself]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

Yep, Thai elections are nothing more than a financial transaction with the county going to the highest bidder.

The problem is that BOTH sides buy votes and the reds would still win if it was not allowed.

Whoa... Are you saying the buying and selling of votes is illegal?

[LivinLOS]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

The Dems apparently outspent the PT campaigning last time round..

[Walkabout]

Here is another "description" of the actual Thai situation ...

http://rt.com/op-edge/thailand-ongoing-political-crisis-364/

[The Dancer]

Here is another "description" of the actual Thai situation ... http://rt.com/op-edge/thailand-ongoing-political-crisis-364/

Yep, pretty much spot on. As a long-term foreign resident who speaks decent Thai the ground truth is fairly clear.

And, re vote buying, well, all votes are ultimately bought in that people vote for their self-interest. E.g., if I were a land-holding elite my vote would be had by the promise that there would be no redistribution to needy farmers. Which means I just got bought for millions of baht.

And, I really doubt the PTP supporters are what they are for a few hundred baht on one election day. As the RT article points out, Thaksin's policies - hate him or love him - have made a difference to the poor.

Edited January 13, 2014 by The Dancer

[notmyself]

And, I really doubt the PTP supporters are what they are for a few hundred baht on one election day. As the RT article points out, Thaksin's policies - hate him or love him - have made a difference to the poor.

Until the poor realise that it is debt taken out under their name.

[CMfoodie]

When and if the truth about what is really the cause of this mess comes out 97% of you will be surprised.

If AFP could report the real facts they would have to be based elsewhere.

[bitcoinbob]

that articles outline why the yellow shirts will never win an election again. so what are they to do ??? they want everything to return to pre thaksin days. the yellow give money and thaksin gives money but when time comes to vote they vote with their heart thaksin. yellow just does not understand they are fighting a losing battle.that is why the level of desperation leads to terrible choices. generals vote yellow troops vote red that is were the real problem will start. what are they to do coup again and 2 years to election, they know how that turns out , so this time no election for 5years? 10 years ? till thaksin dies? good luck

[tullynagardy]

80% of the people she met where born in Issan

if 80% of the red heartland of Issan is now yellow surely a quick election is ideal for the Dems and a landslide victory awaits? Once in power they can make all the reforms they forgot to do 3 years ago.

Or an alternative view would be you are talking <deleted>

[tezzainoz]

80% of the people she met where born in Issan

if 80% of the red heartland of Issan is now yellow surely a quick election is ideal for the Dems and a landslide victory awaits? Once in power they can make all the reforms they forgot to do 3 years ago.

Or an alternative view would be you are talking <deleted>

Okay we now know you have no idea of the english language

How can you translate that 80% of the friends she met at the protest

=

80% of people in Issan want the protest

Now who is talking <deleted>

I have no idea of how many people she met. but we are talking 80% of .00000000000001 %

.............

So you like Thailand, but you ae happy to say that Thai people just talk <deleted>

why do you bother living here if this is your opinion

Oh sorry you are behind a computer screen in some other country !!!!!!

[tingtongteesood]

I think that pretty much sums it all up succinctly and without bias.

They forget, however, to mention that the Democrats are fed up with losing elections because they simply can't match Thaksin or a Peua Thai incumbent for money, buying votes overtly, covertly, or otherwise.

To counter your obvious bias with some opposing bias, they neglected to mention the multitude other reasons why PT should be removed from populist policies to breaking the law to trying to remove judges who rule against them etc...

[tingtongteesood]

Facts as stated from one perspective....Let us consider facts from another top-of-mind quickie perspective and let others decide which is reality:

1..What are protests all about ....Not as stated being anti-Thaksin....They are about unelectables seeking alternative paths to political power. In this case via a coup, using either military, judicial or street activism as the vehicle. Coup-mongers seeking to cover their true motives started off with the anti-amnesty thing, then to anti-Thaksin rhetoric, than anti-electoral, than Electoral delay ostensibly for vague self-serving, holier-than-thou Reform demands. Bottom line, it as all election-avoidance, coup-intentioned, using contrived issues as cover. When one issue doesn't give them traction, they move to another one. It is noted that any of these issues could be "Parliamentirized", subject to electoral review by voters the next election.

2. Who are competing protest groups?...There are no competing protest groups. There is only one protest group comprising of electoral minorities with coup intentions in order to avoid an election they will lose. They have incited opposition to their non-democratic, non-electoral plans however. Elections do not serve these people well. They are trying to change electoral systemics rather than reforming themselves to appeal to a diverse Thai electorate.

3. What are the possible scenarios?...An election on Feb. 2nd. Anything else would effectively be a coup. Certainly not pro-Govt. protests by Red Shirts as reported above. Red Shirt activism is focussed on protecting Electoral Democracy in reaction to protests by those who want it otherwise. The notion that there are two protest groups is not correct. The Govt. attempts to mollify coup-mongers short of a coup is naive. Everything from shelving legislation on the basis of which they were elected, to dissolution of Parliament is evidence of that.

4. Could the army or courts intervene. Yes they could, depending on which vehicle the Electoral Minority elites prefer. At this point, it appears that the politicized judiciary is the preferred vehicle, and a number of initiatives have already been launched by the elites in this regard. International entities would look unfavorably on a coup using the military as the enablers. I am guessing it is felt that using the politicized judiciary would create enough smoke to cover what is called a 'judicial coup', considering that internationally the judiciary is considered normal.

That is a quickie, non-comprehensive response to a Q. & A thing written from one perspective.

You have a very biased red perspective.

[tingtongteesood]

Here is another "description" of the actual Thai situation ... http://rt.com/op-edge/thailand-ongoing-political-crisis-364/

Some of it is good but a lot of it is rubbish, it glosses over important subjects.

For example : To win their support, Thaksin’s governments have brought in a series of powerful social reforms. These reforms are generally glossed-over in current media reports as 'handouts to farmers', 'populist policies', and the like, without any concrete description of what they are.

It neglects to even talk about the rice scam and how much money has been wasted on that and how Thailand has slipped from Number 1 rice seller to number 3 because it's just too expensive to buy the over inflated rice from the government of idiots etc etc...

There are many other examples but I can't be bothered....

[spare5]

Q&A, better watch this clip:

[tingtongteesood]

80% of the people she met where born in Issan

if 80% of the red heartland of Issan is now yellow surely a quick election is ideal for the Dems and a landslide victory awaits? Once in power they can make all the reforms they forgot to do 3 years ago.

Or an alternative view would be you are talking <deleted>

This is a very lame argument. She never said '80% of Isaan are yellow'. She said 80% of those she met and talked to at the protest were from Isaan. These are 2 very different things. So it is YOU who is talking out your ass....

[mca]

She has not been able to find one person who has been paid to be their and 80% of the people she met where born in Issan

Apparently they're being offered 800 baht to be there during the day and an extra 500 if you stay overnight according to a Thai guy who works for my wife and took a wander down there yesterday