Political crisis expected to get grimmer as chance of talks is low: Thai report

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT
Political crisis expected to get grimmer as chance of talks is low
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Security officials and experts believe the political situation in Thailand will become more severe, with threats of violence. And with the prospect of talks not appearing to be promising, agencies were preparing to set up special teams to keep a close watch on individuals seen as "hardcore".

The country is in a state of shock after bomb attacks in Trat and in central Bangkok killed three innocent young children aged from four to six years old on the weekend. The stakes are high and Thais are wondering if there is worse to come.

Sources from security agencies, who asked not to be named, said officials and experts believed talks to try to find solutions to the crisis would be useless, given that the chance for opposing sides to compromise had ended once the National Anti-Corruption Commission ruled that it will press charges of dereliction of duty against caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for her failure to stop the graft-plagued rice scheme.

Another serious blow for the government was the Civil Court's ruling last Wednesday that the Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order had deprived protesters from the People's Democratic Reform Committee of their rights and liberties.

Angry government supporters have retaliated violently against the two decisions by targeting anti-government protesters, who also appear to have armed men backing them when they are confronted by red shirts or police.

Violence would continue to take the form of ambushes or guerrilla warfare, experts said, rather than clashes between rival camps. With the red shirts threatening to "shut down" independent agencies, those accused of taking political sides could become targets of attack.

There have been attempts to create division and suspicion among officials carrying arms in different units. Weapons and people have been moved into the capital.

Security agencies that are politically neutral have urged the military top brass to bridge the gap with police to prevent possible clashes between the two state forces.

Efforts to bring rival camps to the negotiating table have failed at this stage because the stakes are higher, as leaders of both camps have been hit with serious charges of corruption, murder and sedition.

It also appears that both sides still believe they can gain an absolute victory, but without talks the outcome is unlikely to yield a situation in which the two sides could both "win".

Security officials suggested that the military and concerned security agencies track down groups responsible for the recent attacks to prevent them from intensifying their violence. They are classified into hardcore groups, both financially independent or backed by politicians, and trained, armed groups who carry out attacks at the orders of the rival camps.


-- The Nation 2014-02-25

[chooka]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

[fleeing]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Yingluck pleads for talks, but insists on staying to the last minute.

Chalerm keeps on trying to get permission to get physical with protesters.

Churapong threatens to mobilise 10 million 'shotguns'.

Dab Daeng the rabid policeman gets standing applause from the UDD apparatchiks for the attacks on unarmed protesters in Trat.

Another grenade attack, this time towards the Democrats HQ.

And another day passes with the PDRC demonstrating without killing or maiming anyone.

Edited February 25, 2014 by fleeing

[chooka]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Yingluck pleads for talks, but insists on staying to the last minute.

Chalerm keeps on trying to get permission to get physical with protesters.

Churapong threatens to mobilise 10 million 'shotguns'.

Dab Daeng the rabid policeman gets standing applause from the UDD apparatchiks for the attacks on unarmed protesters in Trat.

Another grenade attack, this time towards the Democrats HQ.

And another day passes with the PDRC demonstrating without killing or maiming anyone.

You don't really believe that the PDRC are so pure and innocent as to not even to use foul language? There are two sides who are injuring each other and people are dying on both sides.

As for the police being responsible for the attack in Trat, I think that is just a little silly.

[fleeing]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Yingluck pleads for talks, but insists on staying to the last minute.

Chalerm keeps on trying to get permission to get physical with protesters.

Churapong threatens to mobilise 10 million 'shotguns'.

Dab Daeng the rabid policeman gets standing applause from the UDD apparatchiks for the attacks on unarmed protesters in Trat.

Another grenade attack, this time towards the Democrats HQ.

And another day passes with the PDRC demonstrating without killing or maiming anyone.

You don't really believe that the PDRC are so pure and innocent as to not even to use foul language? There are two sides who are injuring each other and people are dying on both sides.

As for the police being responsible for the attack in Trat, I think that is just a little silly.

I don't equate using foul language with 'walking down the road of violence and death' do you?

Dab Daeng is the policeman who was so happy to announce the casualties resulting from the Trat attack to the UDD 'war-drum' meeting, for which he received wild applause.

There are two sides, perhaps three if you believe Yingluck, but till now, as far as I know, 16 of the 20 deaths and just under 700 of the 718 720 (another attack at Lumphini tonight) injured have fallen on the side of the demonstrators or have been random victims. Not so much two sides injuring each other but one side taking pot-shots at the other meeting minimal resistance.

[ShannonT]

How do you guys figure there are just 2 sides and not possibly 3?

[chainarong]

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Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Suthep has met Yingluck Chooka, in the early stage , but she couldn't really talk about anything, or agree to anything, because she had to seek advise ,refer to other people , that I gather was Thaskin, since then Suthep has held her in-contempt ,as being a puppet and the hate has snowballed .

[ShannonT]

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Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Suthep has met Yingluck Chooka, in the early stage , but she couldn't really talk about anything, or agree to anything, because she had to seek advise ,refer to other people , that I gather was Thaskin, since then Suthep has held her in-contempt ,as being a puppet and the hate has snowballed .

Really? According to the BBC, BP and The Nation it was Suthep who refused to negotiate at the meeting in December.

"There was no negotiation and no compromise," Mr Suthep was quoted as saying.

"I told Yingluck that this is the only and last time I see her until power is handed over to the people.

"There will be no bargaining and it must be finished in two days."

[canuckamuck]

They don't respect the vote, there is no rule of law, the army and the police are biased, the only solution is a coup. But this is only a stopgap.

There is a power vaccuum here, and someone is going to fill it eventually. The question is what will be the cost?

[lovetotravel]

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Suthep has met Yingluck Chooka, in the early stage , but she couldn't really talk about anything, or agree to anything, because she had to seek advise ,refer to other people , that I gather was Thaskin, since then Suthep has held her in-contempt ,as being a puppet and the hate has snowballed .

Really? According to the BBC, BP and The Nation it was Suthep who refused to negotiate at the meeting in December.

"There was no negotiation and no compromise," Mr Suthep was quoted as saying.

"I told Yingluck that this is the only and last time I see her until power is handed over to the people.

"There will be no bargaining and it must be finished in two days."

Yingluck refuses to resign and Suthep refuses to negotiate with her, knowing she's not really in power. And that the current government has a dodgy reputation for keeping promises. The protesters are in agreement with Suthep's thoughts. For the same reasons.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/If-negotiations-start-what-will-be-on-the-agenda-30227249.html

Yingluck's main condition is that Suthep put an end to the protest and proceed with the election. Suthep's main bargaining point is that Yingluck must quit and that a "people's government headed by a neutral prime minister" be set up along with a "people's assembly" to draw up the country's reform agenda.

[h90]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

yes she want to talk....but says she won't resign....so talk about what?

[h90]

They don't respect the vote, there is no rule of law, the army and the police are biased, the only solution is a coup. But this is only a stopgap.

There is a power vaccuum here, and someone is going to fill it eventually. The question is what will be the cost?

A coup is a great way of fixing things...But Thailand had how many coups and how many times they fixed things......

I am a bit pro coup, just because I can't imagine anything worse than this government, but it won't be long term solution....

After the coup new elections Thaksin pays a couple billions to get his next crony elected....

[fleeing]

A coup, however attractive it may seem as a short-term solution, would not help bring this conflict to a definite end but merely prolong it. It would just be the UDD on the streets instead of the PDRC. It would also expose the fragile nature of democracy in Thailand at a time when it really needs to be strengthened.

Prayuth is well aware of this and, as far as I can tell, that is why he seems to be doing his best to avoid military intervention. Thailand needs to develop, economically, socially and politically. A coup at this time would not effectively help that development in anyway.

[Yunla]

On my socialscience forum in the last three days, FAR greater minds than mine have been saying that the moment PTP are kicked out we will start seeing full-blown brigandry type attacks a la Iraq. The going opinion on that site is that Thailand is safer with Yingluck in power, for the simple reason that the man behind PTP is such a vindictive, bitter and fanatical ego-monster. Meaning that he will take PTP being kicked-out as a gross insult and that is when the serious bombings will begin, as he has proved continuously that he is obsessed with having power in this nation, and if he doesn't have it he will go into jealous revenge mode. That is not to say we want Yingluck/PTP in office especially, only that when she is in office she can be tackled legally and politically to the best extent of this very limited state-regulatory system. Her policies which are atrocious are not as bad as a prolonged bitter insurgency or more accurately "brigandry" since this isn't politically motivated it is just about power and wealth.

What a tragic situation. The solution can only come from the public, since they outnumber all the state gangsters by many millions, when people say enough is enough and start supporting new moderate middle-ground parties like the white-shirts are advocating, we will see at least sensible leaders at the helm, although I doubt it will stop the fanatical ambitions of the duneloon.

Edited February 25, 2014 by Yunla

[canuckamuck]

On my socialscience forum in the last three days, FAR greater minds than mine have been saying that the moment PTP are kicked out we will start seeing full-blown brigandry type attacks a la Iraq. The going opinion on that site is that Thailand is safer with Yingluck in power, for the simple reason that the man behind PTP is such a vindictive, bitter and fanatical ego-monster. Meaning that he will take PTP being kicked-out as a gross insult and that is when the serious bombings will begin, as he has proved continuously that he is obsessed with having power in this nation, and if he doesn't have it he will go into jealous revenge mode. That is not to say we want Yingluck/PTP in office especially, only that when she is in office she can be tackled legally and politically to the best extent of this very limited state-regulatory system. Her policies which are atrocious are not as bad as a prolonged bitter insurgency or more accurately "brigandry" since this isn't politically motivated it is just about power and wealth, although only as the lesser of two evils.

What a tragic situation. The solution can only come from the public, since they outnumber all the state gangsters by many millions, when people say enough is enough and start supporting new moderate middle-ground parties like what the white-shirts are advocating, we will see at least sensible leaders at the helm, although I doubt it will stop the fanatical ambitions of the duneloon.

Fully agree

[soalbundy]

Thai politics,.........."Choose your weapons and wait for the word"

[MaxLee]

Political crisis expected to get grimmer as chance of talks is low

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Security officials and experts believe the political situation in Thailand will become more severe, with threats of violence. And with the prospect of talks not appearing to be promising, agencies were preparing to set up special teams to keep a close watch on individuals seen as "hardcore".

It's too late it already escalated, more bombings already happened last night...

[Centrum]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

All Yingluck has to do is resign.

[chooka]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

All Yingluck has to do is resign.

or suthep goes home

[BlueNoseCodger]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

I think it was the rice tradeoff, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn will be moderating, he's the Election Commissioner so determined to block the vote. At the same time he announces 700m baht approved for release to pay rice farmers (a tiny sum, they're seeking further approval of funds).

A few things, firstly so much for EC not blocking rice payments, it clearly shows EC are blocking rice payments.

Somchai is not neutral in any sense, he showed his colors early on.

Suthep's demand is democracy cancelled and an appointed Prime Minister.

They'll probably pretend their appointing of a Prime Minister is a neutral PM, but it never is.

Ergo, I assume this is all smoke and no substance with nothing on the table from Suthep's backers.

Suthep's backers will insist on appointing a PM, in place of the elected one, and Suthep will talk up violence to try to forment a civil war as the stick.... there is no carrot here. They have nothing positive to offer.

I'm following Yingluk regardless of who they appointed, on the basis that Yingluk got elected and is the only legitimate PM.

[soalbundy]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

I think it was the rice tradeoff, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn will be moderating, he's the Election Commissioner so determined to block the vote. At the same time he announces 700m baht approved for release to pay rice farmers (a tiny sum, they're seeking further approval of funds).

A few things, firstly so much for EC not blocking rice payments, it clearly shows EC are blocking rice payments.

Somchai is not neutral in any sense, he showed his colors early on.

Suthep's demand is democracy cancelled and an appointed Prime Minister.

They'll probably pretend their appointing of a Prime Minister is a neutral PM, but it never is.

Ergo, I assume this is all smoke and no substance with nothing on the table from Suthep's backers.

Suthep's backers will insist on appointing a PM, in place of the elected one, and Suthep will talk up violence to try to forment a civil war as the stick.... there is no carrot here. They have nothing positive to offer.

I'm following Yingluk regardless of who they appointed, on the basis that Yingluk got elected and is the only legitimate PM.

Getting rid of the Shinawatra clan is a big enough carrot for me

[soalbundy]

How do you guys figure there are just 2 sides and not possibly 3?

come on ! give us a chance,we can only spit venom on the ones we know

[soalbundy]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

I think it was the rice tradeoff, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn will be moderating, he's the Election Commissioner so determined to block the vote. At the same time he announces 700m baht approved for release to pay rice farmers (a tiny sum, they're seeking further approval of funds).

A few things, firstly so much for EC not blocking rice payments, it clearly shows EC are blocking rice payments.

Somchai is not neutral in any sense, he showed his colors early on.

Suthep's demand is democracy cancelled and an appointed Prime Minister.

They'll probably pretend their appointing of a Prime Minister is a neutral PM, but it never is.

Ergo, I assume this is all smoke and no substance with nothing on the table from Suthep's backers.

Suthep's backers will insist on appointing a PM, in place of the elected one, and Suthep will talk up violence to try to forment a civil war as the stick.... there is no carrot here. They have nothing positive to offer.

I'm following Yingluk regardless of who they appointed, on the basis that Yingluk got elected and is the only legitimate PM.

I bet you would vote Tory or Republican even if you were living of food stamps

[Scamper]

The constitution and the courts are the only constant, and as they take effect the process will be resolved as it should be - constitutionally. After March 4, Yingluck has to step down, as the constitution clearly stipulates that if after 30 days parliament has not convened, the administration is stripped of its caretaker status. The constitution is well-equipped - and the courts are well-equipped - to lead the way. This conflict will not be decided on the streets. It will be decided in courts of law. The constitution will lead the path forward, as it must.

[canuckamuck]

The constitution and the courts are the only constant, and as they take effect the process will be resolved as it should be - constitutionally. After March 4, Yingluck has to step down, as the constitution clearly stipulates that if after 30 days parliament has not convened, the administration is stripped of its caretaker status. The constitution is well-equipped - and the courts are well-equipped - to lead the way. This conflict will not be decided on the streets. It will be decided in courts of law. The constitution will lead the path forward, as it must.

And then who will be the government, how will it be picked, and how will you keep the red shirts from making 2010 seem like a pillow fight?

[Mister Fixit]

Yingluk pleads for talks and Suthep is happy with the way this are going and will keeping walking down the road of violence and death

Another red-shirt/black-shirt/Thida/Dab Daeng rejoicer in killing children supporter aka nut-job ...

Who was it who went onstage and boasted of how innocent people including children, had been killed? Oh, yes, the peace-loving UDD thick as a plank policeman Dab Daeng ...

Edited February 25, 2014 by Mister Fixit