US allies defect as new world order tips towards China

[copa8]

Remember, the US has not only military ties with many SE Asian/Asian countries, but also important economic ties as well. This would bring all in. While this topic is mainly about economics, it is important to remember that when dealing with China, their economic and military clout have to be considered together. They work hand and fist.

Just curious, but I wonder how does the Chinese diaspora come into play, if any? Many ethnic Chinese in SE/E Asian countries.

[sgtsabai]

A good point. In present day Thailand, a problem I think. Lao is already owned by the Chinese, although hated by the Lao people. Cambodia, who knows, basically owned by China also but beholding to the west in some ways. Vietnam, while many Viet/Chinese, has a long history of warfare with China and has fought two battles with them since we stopped screwing up their country. Malaysia, I don't think would want to swing either way, but probably not with the Chinese. Philippine, while very multi-racial now, not ever going with the Chinese. Definitely not Japan. Singapore, perhaps one of the most important, if pushed I don't think would go with Chinese, already have American warships stationing our of there and their Air Force is made up of primarily US planes. Indonesia I don't believe if pushed would go with China, although they and Australia have a long standing "difference". According to the threat, S. Korea definitely on US side. Myanmar probably would try to stay neutral as China is on their border, although they have learned to fear China. Hard to answer your question and probably needs someone with much more knowledge than mine. Many of the SE Asia/Asian countries are beginning to feel the pressure from China and are probably rethinking how deeply they wish to be allied with them. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case with dear leader.

[hawker9000]

A good point. In present day Thailand, a problem I think. Lao is already owned by the Chinese, although hated by the Lao people. Cambodia, who knows, basically owned by China also but beholding to the west in some ways. Vietnam, while many Viet/Chinese, has a long history of warfare with China and has fought two battles with them since we stopped screwing up their country. Malaysia, I don't think would want to swing either way, but probably not with the Chinese. Philippine, while very multi-racial now, not ever going with the Chinese. Definitely not Japan. Singapore, perhaps one of the most important, if pushed I don't think would go with Chinese, already have American warships stationing our of there and their Air Force is made up of primarily US planes. Indonesia I don't believe if pushed would go with China, although they and Australia have a long standing "difference". According to the threat, S. Korea definitely on US side. Myanmar probably would try to stay neutral as China is on their border, although they have learned to fear China. Hard to answer your question and probably needs someone with much more knowledge than mine. Many of the SE Asia/Asian countries are beginning to feel the pressure from China and are probably rethinking how deeply they wish to be allied with them. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case with dear leader.

Accurately summed up I think. I'm not sure that China's current high-handed attempt to co-opt the entire South China and East China seas doesn't actually have the "world order" tipping away from them. Naturally they have their media advocates in most corners of the globe; 'doesn't mean they need to be taken seriously.

[Publicus]

As Xi Jinping continues to make himself the most powerful leader since Mao, Xi has also been responsive to Prez Obama who in the PRChina last November got Xi to agree to several things.

After Prez Obama's visit the CCP Foreign Ministry said there was no need at this time of a new Air Defense Identification Zone over the SCS because the SCS situation was stable and calm. This is a reversal of the CCP Boyz public statements as recently as last year that a SCS ADIZ was going to be a sure thing.

And the climbdown came after the CCP Boyz in Beijing had issued in 2013 a surprise and shock to everyone ADIZ in the East Sea affecting Japan and which has led to military air and sea tensions between the two. The US had objected strongly to the new East Sea ADIZ against its defense treaty ally Japan, so to make the point the US immediately flew nuclear capable but unarmed B-52 bombers through the new East Sea ADIZ in the face of Beijing's warning that any incursion into the zone would be met with the appropriate response.

The East Sea ADIZ has since become a swiss cheeze zone as the US, Japan, South Korea have been flying fighters and bombers through it at will, together in formations and separately. So Prez Obama in Beijing in November reiterated to Xi that the US would not accept an ADIZ in the SCS through which $8 Trillion of global trade passes annually to include ME oil to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan.

It was at the November Apec meeting in Beijing that PM Abe finally got his first face to face meeting with Xi but only because the US twisted Xi's arm and considerably so, after several overtures to Xi by Abe through his top aides had always been rejected since Abe's initial election in 2013. Although Xi didn't speak during the brief public handshake meeting, and had a countenance that said it was the last thing on earth Xi wanted to be doing, the two spoke at length later in private.

South Korean Pres Park Geun-hye has been pretty clear to Xi and Beijing has stopped hollering against the wanted US THAAD Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense missile shield to be installed in SK. Beijing in fact has stopped talking about it altogether. SK, Japan, Australia meanwhile continue to stand off and away the AIIB idea of Beijing.

Last month however an off the scale political earthquake struck throughout the region and jaws dropped as the Beijing Foreign Ministry said it was seriously considering inviting Japan to the CCP 70th anniversary planned huge September military parade to commemorate the end of WW2, provided, of course, Japan shows "sincerity".

Whether all of this and more coming out of Beijing is sincere or not is not the point, however, as Xi Jinping recognizes the Boyz in Beijing have to scale back their belligerence of recent years throughout the region due to the apprehension of its neighbors and the decisive assertions and diplomacy by Washington. It should be noted that the 74 year old US Ambassador to Beijing, former and longtime senator Max Baucus, seems to be spreading magic beans wherever he goes.

Edited March 24, 2015 by Publicus

[hawker9000]

As Xi Jinping continues to make himself the most powerful leader since Mao, Xi has also been responsive to Prez Obama who in the PRChina last November got Xi to agree to several things.

After Prez Obama's visit the CCP Foreign Ministry said there was no need at this time of a new Air Defense Identification Zone over the SCS because the SCS situation was stable and calm. This is a reversal of the CCP Boyz public statements as recently as last year that a SCS ADIZ was going to be a sure thing.

And the climbdown came after the CCP Boyz in Beijing had issued in 2013 a surprise and shock to everyone ADIZ in the East Sea affecting Japan and which has led to military air and sea tensions between the two. The US had objected strongly to the new East Sea ADIZ against its defense treaty ally Japan, so to make the point the US immediately flew nuclear capable but unarmed B-52 bombers through the new East Sea ADIZ in the face of Beijing's warning that any incursion into the zone would be met with the appropriate response.

The East Sea ADIZ has since become a swiss cheeze zone as the US, Japan, South Korea have been flying fighters and bombers through it at will, together in formations and separately. So Prez Obama in Beijing in November reiterated to Xi that the US would not accept an ADIZ in the SCS through which $8 Trillion of global trade passes annually to include ME oil to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan.

It was at the November Apec meeting in Beijing that PM Abe finally got his first face to face meeting with Xi but only because the US twisted Xi's arm and considerably so, after several overtures to Xi by Abe through his top aides had always been rejected since Abe's initial election in 2013. Although Xi didn't speak during the brief public handshake meeting, and had a countenance that said it was the last thing on earth Xi wanted to be doing, the two spoke at length later in private.

South Korean Pres Park Geun-hye has been pretty clear to Xi and Beijing has stopped hollering against the wanted US THAAD Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense missile shield to be installed in SK. Beijing in fact has stopped talking about it altogether. SK, Japan, Australia meanwhile continue to stand off and away the AIIB idea of Beijing.

Last month however an off the scale political earthquake struck throughout the region and jaws dropped as the Beijing Foreign Ministry said it was seriously considering inviting Japan to the CCP 70th anniversary planned huge September military parade to commemorate the end of WW2, provided, of course, Japan shows "sincerity".

Whether all of this and more coming out of Beijing is sincere or not is not the point, however, as Xi Jinping recognizes the Boyz in Beijing have to scale back their belligerence of recent years throughout the region due to the apprehension of its neighbors and the decisive assertions and diplomacy by Washington. It should be noted that the 74 year old US Ambassador to Beijing, former and longtime senator Max Baucus, seems to be spreading magic beans wherever he goes.

Are you saying the airlines are no longer submitting their notifications of planned flight through the SCS ADIZ? Has the U.S. govt even recommended or even suggested they stop doing that?

Here's one commentator recently (FEB) suggesting that Japanese patrols may actually push China to establish a second ADIZ!

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150213000113&cid=1101

[sgtsabai]

I would wager a guess that China can announce all the ADIZ's they want and the same will continue to happen. It is possible that the US may finally realize that the idea of stating a "red line", damn that was stupid, but quietly establishing one is the way to go. China's aggression must not go on unchecked. China does seem to have slowed it's aggression in the area a bit, a lot of feathers were being ruffled and many nations, while unable to stand up to China on their own were turning back to the US. China's physical aggression in the area threatens many countries economic interests, not just the US as they fear China controlling one of the worlds most important sea lanes. China on the other hand fears the US and Japan etc. choking off the sea supply lines to them. That would happen if a shooting war breaks out. Hey Pub, pm me, I'll give you a populist's view of what a wonderful guy Max Baucus is, NOT. I can readily understand how he would get along with the Chinese plutocrats.