Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[zorro1]

I just read - and I'm sure bingobongo and Midas noticed - that a development on Rama 4 is now offering a 20% discount on the 40 or so unsold units. The project is planned to be opened in July, 2009. Not surprisingly, the discounts are due to the worldwide recession, and not the "notoriously defective condo law" or the "junta".

a gazzilion condos being built and you found one, good boy

[ray08]

Will Condo prices in Bangkok go up or down , how much ?

Answer is down , by how much ,please go to link

http://newsletters.raimonland.com/raimonland/q1-promotions/

River along with other projects discounted ,this is a major player in the market ,so we can stop all the Arguments about where the Condo market is going ,the answer is DOWN ,

Might as well close thread now

it proves nothing 1 company offering discounts on the most expensive projects out of reach to most folk anyway. Try seing what u can get off a 1-2 million priced condo which is where most people will be buying as most buyers are Thai.

Ok these are around thb 4-5m

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...condo-prices-20

I am sure even the cheaper Thai owned thb 1m are getting hit with discounts ,with so many companies laying of staff

Edited February 18, 2009 by ray08

[zorro1]

Now we have 2 ( they "plan" to discount) great marketing. up to 20%? that would be half that and for the condo facing the car park. Yep that's enough I'm out scared stiff

Come on guys get real . Were looking for Govt survey type figures You know surely you watch the news from Usa? "property at record lows" and "house sell for $1"

This is getting boring

[ray08]

Now we have 2 ( they "plan" to discount) great marketing. up to 20%? that would be half that and for the condo facing the car park. Yep that's enough I'm out scared stiff

Come on guys get real . Were looking for Govt survey type figures You know surely you watch the news from Usa? "property at record lows" and "house sell for $1"

This is getting boring

Mate i think the info from the developers are more accurate than any government survery , in fact i yet to see any hard facts from the government which are correct on any issue

[midas]

well just went to my favourite website and here we go, this article just realead 1 hour ago, proves my theory about USA knock on effect is seriously diminishing.

You have well and truly lost the plot zorro !

What has the performance of the share market in Australia got to do with

this thread?

[yabaaaa]

Will Condo prices in Bangkok go up or down , how much ?

Answer is down , by how much ,please go to link

http://newsletters.raimonland.com/raimonland/q1-promotions/

River along with other projects discounted ,this is a major player in the market ,so we can stop all the Arguments about where the Condo market is going ,the answer is DOWN ,

Might as well close thread now

it proves nothing 1 company offering discounts on the most expensive projects out of reach to most folk anyway. Try seing what u can get off a 1-2 million priced condo which is where most people will be buying as most buyers are Thai.

Ok these are around thb 4-5m

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...condo-prices-20

I am sure even the cheaper Thai owned thb 1m are getting hit with discounts ,with so many companies laying of staff

"leading to slower sales than for smaller-sized units".

In other words cheaper smaller units are still easy to sell and their problem is with the larger ie more expensive units and 4-5 million is still a lot more than the 1-2 million I mentioned

[zorro1]

well just went to my favourite website and here we go, this article just realead 1 hour ago, proves my theory about USA knock on effect is seriously diminishing.

You have well and truly lost the plot zorro !

What has the performance of the share market in Australia got to do with

this thread?

A lot mate watch bloomberg and you may get a better idea. The USA`is dying because of sub-prime and its reflected in their markets 10x more than Thai or oz markets you Midas are getting sucked into the vacuum and will miss out on opportunities. Those heavily exposed to sub prime are in free fall. Aussie banks wont lend you a dime if you have a single default. you CANNOT get a loan in oz if you have an unpaid phone bill in your CRA regardless of your down payment!. I worked in Finance both in Oz and Washington D>C

point being Thailand is exactly the same way when it comes to bank loans. Neither country has sub prime, although oz has indirect exposure to USA`markets. BKK banks are safer than OZ Midas think about it!!! why else arnt we already in free fall here???

Will post more tomorrow

Edited February 18, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

well just went to my favourite website and here we go, this article just realead 1 hour ago, proves my theory about USA knock on effect is seriously diminishing.

You have well and truly lost the plot zorro !

What has the performance of the share market in Australia got to do with

this thread?

Midas just some more info re correlation of each country's markets. If you believe as you state we are going into depression and real estate will spiral down in BKK then you need to understand that the markets reflect the overall health of its country. Every piece of good and bad news is analyzed to the extreme and reflected in the markets . here's an example in the last 24 hours and lets call it the good the bad and the ugly in reverse which backs my theory that here in in BKK we are best able to weather the storm. When it all started the globe followed the lead by USA.

The Ugly

Usa markets down 3%

The Bad

oz markets down 1.5%

The good

thai markets UP .3% http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Global...how/4150166.cms

You have a lot to learn and you really should not be posting advice here. Actually I strongly urge anyone here to totally ignore your posts and do their own research. Your posts re property are on the false belief that we are following the USA and Europe justified by cut n paste articles from Alaska?

[MJo]

I strongly urge anyone here to totally ignore ALL posts and do their own research.

My own research shows that there has been discounts on properties that do not sell already since last year, not so much on those that are still selling

[midas]

I strongly urge anyone here to totally ignore ALL posts and do their own research.

My own research shows that there has been discounts on properties that do not sell already since last year, not so much on those that are still selling

[LennyW]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

[ray08]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

Better still " Every man for himself " I would be suprised if too many people would make an investment decision based on a Public Forum , IMO what it does deliver is food for thought , from there everyone must go ahead and do their own research and make up their own mind .

[midas]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

Better still " Every man for himself " I would be suprised if too many people would make an investment decision based on a Public Forum , IMO what it does deliver is food for thought , from there everyone must go ahead and do their own research and make up their own mind .

Yes indeed ray - fully agree

but it just leaves me with the question why in that

case LennyW comes out with this classic statement after posting so many " advertorials "

in support of the property market ....................

Look back at his posts and you can see he was obviously hoping to influence many " ignorant men "

[LennyW]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

Better still " Every man for himself " I would be suprised if too many people would make an investment decision based on a Public Forum , IMO what it does deliver is food for thought , from there everyone must go ahead and do their own research and make up their own mind .

Yes indeed ray - fully agree

but it just leaves me with the question why in that

case LennyW comes out with this classic statement after posting so many " advertorials "

in support of the property market ....................

Look back at his posts and you can see he was obviously hoping to influence many " ignorant men "

No advertorials from me Midas, only my opinions which i am entitled to, by the way, although you say "there is a very simple answer," youv'e never actually answered my question yet....

QUOTE (midas @ 2009-02-17 16:07:17)

If you like I am the Batman of the condominium market making sure Jokers like zorro don't influence

too many poor retiree's to rush in and make some premature and wrong decisions - " Caveat Emptor " and all that

And do you think anyone seriously in the market for property in Thailand pays any attention to your ramblings Midas??

[LivinLOS]

The biggest drops are going to be in the condos around sukumvit, so many Japanese familes heading back now.

Yes but they liked to be in a community and always seemed to congregate around the Thonglor area mostly ?

Or are they in other areas as well ?

Suk 24 as well - many Japanese. I think Suk 24 is going to be a disaster personally when/if all those condos are built... It's already a main thoroughfare between Rama4 and Suk... and with all the new traffic, god help us.

LivingLOS, I sent u a pm, u never answered... so I'll ask again on the board since I see you posted here not long ago... Do you still have your E31 CSI? Color?

Never got any PM.. Did see a post in a thread yesterday and replied in the same thread.. Import thread in motor section.

Sold it sadly practically gave it away due to not being there.. Such a shame.

[pkrv]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

Good grief you leave the board for a few minutes and all disintergates into chaos . I must confess I have been in hysterics reading the posts to, as TH said, an expired thread. We have been there and done that.

Well you know what our language answers the question. The only answer is 'To Test The Market' - But I will tell you something for free, you want to buy my place? FO and die

Edited February 19, 2009 by pkrv

[yogi]

sure it will go down from 4%-15%

[zorro1]

well just went to my favourite website and here we go, this article just realead 1 hour ago, proves my theory about USA knock on effect is seriously diminishing.

You have well and truly lost the plot zorro !

What has the performance of the share market in Australia got to do with

this thread?

Midas just some more info re correlation of each country's markets. If you believe as you state we are going into depression and real estate will spiral down in BKK then you need to understand that the markets reflect the overall health of its country. Every piece of good and bad news is analyzed to the extreme and reflected in the markets . here's an example in the last 24 hours and lets call it the good the bad and the ugly in reverse which backs my theory that here in in BKK we are best able to weather the storm. When it all started the globe followed the lead by USA.

The Ugly

Usa markets down 3%

The Bad

oz markets down 1.5%

The good

thai markets UP .3% http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Global...how/4150166.cms

You have a lot to learn and you really should not be posting advice here. Actually I strongly urge anyone here to totally ignore your posts and do their own research. Your posts re property are on the false belief that we are following the USA and Europe justified by cut n paste articles from Alaska?

THE EDUCATION OF MIDAS PART 2

THE UGLY

usa stock market flat 0.3

THE BETTER

ASX (oz) matrkets UP 1%

THE SENSATIONAL

Thai markets up 2.2%

Midas are you getting the picture now?? we don't follow the USA or EUROPE like we used to ,both oz and Thai are unique but I'm so sorry for you that you don't get the BIG picture . The USA And Europe may well go into depression but never while your but points to the ground will it happen here. Property would be the first to go and even though we are in severe global recession , NOTHING here. Do you not find that odd? or you expect it will happen overnight?

[midas]

THE EDUCATION OF MIDAS PART 2

THE UGLY

usa stock market flat 0.3

THE BETTER

ASX (oz) matrkets UP 1%

THE SENSATIONAL

Thai markets up 2.2%

Midas are you getting the picture now?? we don't follow the USA or EUROPE like we used to ,both oz and Thai are unique but I'm so sorry for you that you don't get the BIG picture . The USA And Europe may well go into depression but never while your but points to the ground will it happen here. Property would be the first to go and even though we are in severe global recession , NOTHING here. Do you not find that odd? or you expect it will happen overnight?

EDUCATION OF ZORRO PART 1

1. Understand how meaningless it is to waffle on about the stock market in USA and Australia

in the thread called " Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down? "

2. Read the local newspapers about economic trends in Thailand that refer to unemployment

because unemployment is far far more relevant to the dynamics of the economy ( which in turn

will affect the rental market ) than what the stock market in Australia is doing?

Korn: Job losses 'will worsen'

By: AFP

Published: 19/02/2009

Finance minister Korn Chatikavanij has warned that unemployment could worsen in the months ahead and force factory workers back to Thailand's rural heartlands.

As weakening demand from the West and Japan hits Thailand's export sector hard, 45-year-old Korn told AFP that the jobs crisis would likely be worse than during the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

A decade ago the devaluation of the baht and the robust economies of key export partners allowed the kingdom to spring back from spiralling unemployment within two years, Korn said.

"It will be bad... This time we don't have the same cushion, virtually every sector is struggling," Korn said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/13...ses-will-worsen

Edited February 19, 2009 by midas

[midas]

EDUCATION OF ZORRO PART 2

1. Understand that you cannot go on papering over the cracks forever ..............-

" Thailand’s Economy Probably Shrank for First Time in 10 Years "

2. By continually using USA as a comparison.......................it could bite you on the bum

“If the U.S. has yet to recover, how can Thailand recover?” said Kongkiat Opaswongkarn,

Chief Executive Officer of Asia Plus Securities Pcl in Bangkok. “We are with them. When they are sick, we are also sick.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

[zorro1]

Interesting. Not many people into this tread, usually a hundred doomsayers join in . Maybe you and Bingoagaga are the only 2 pessimists left, anyhow I see your on the BKK meet up tonight so will see you there for a beer . We can pick up the debate again after tonight, Your shout

Edited February 20, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

Interesting. Not many people into this tread, usually a hundred doomsayers join in . Maybe you and Bingoagaga are the only 2 pessimists left, anyhow I see your on the BKK meet up tonight so will see you there for a beer . We can pick up the debate again after tonight, Your shout

" the only 2 pessimists left " - I am not a pessimist zorro - i am very happy and

conent - I am a realist

zorro it would be interesting to meet with you sometime but

i am not attending your gathering because I

live too far from Bangkok and I also spend a lot of time in Isaan.

[zorro1]

Interesting. Not many people into this tread, usually a hundred doomsayers join in . Maybe you and Bingoagaga are the only 2 pessimists left, anyhow I see your on the BKK meet up tonight so will see you there for a beer . We can pick up the debate again after tonight, Your shout

" the only 2 pessimists left " - I am not a pessimist zorro - i am very happy and

conent - I am a realist

zorro it would be interesting to meet with you sometime but

i am not attending your gathering because I

live too far from Bangkok and I also spend a lot of time in Isaan.

Isaan well that explains it then. Now I understand

your on the list

bkkjames

lazygourmet

theoldgit

Soundman

Saorsa

Big Toe

Midas

thithi (Birthday pissup?)

paquito (80% chance)

futureexpat (might finally make it)

russianrobert

djlowz (if he can dance)

zorro1

firefan (late)

konfuzed

midoriapple

bangkokbabay

alexlah

jfchandler & partners

texasfarang (70% sure he wants to socialise)

HNLDennis

Bonobo (possibly after B/Day dinner)

AlexLah

GeekFreakLover

[midas]

Interesting. Not many people into this tread, usually a hundred doomsayers join in . Maybe you and Bingoagaga are the only 2 pessimists left, anyhow I see your on the BKK meet up tonight so will see you there for a beer . We can pick up the debate again after tonight, Your shout

" the only 2 pessimists left " - I am not a pessimist zorro - i am very happy and

conent - I am a realist

zorro it would be interesting to meet with you sometime but

i am not attending your gathering because I

live too far from Bangkok and I also spend a lot of time in Isaan.

Isaan well that explains it then. Now I understand

your on the list

bkkjames

lazygourmet

theoldgit

Soundman

Saorsa

Big Toe

Midas

thithi (Birthday pissup?)

paquito (80% chance)

futureexpat (might finally make it)

russianrobert

djlowz (if he can dance)

zorro1

firefan (late)

konfuzed

midoriapple

bangkokbabay

alexlah

jfchandler & partners

texasfarang (70% sure he wants to socialise)

HNLDennis

Bonobo (possibly after B/Day dinner)

AlexLah

GeekFreakLover

I think there may be a Midasthailand - not me

except in the UNLIKELY event you end up being correct

I will say he/ she was the " pessimist " not me

No based on CURRENT macro TRENDS - I am steadfast.

And Isaan is a lovely place to visit- not stay 100%

but just escape to the quiet and the nightsky

on clear night is something else...In Bangkok

you probably dont remember what stars look like ?

[zorro1]

I see one in the mirror every morning

[ding]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

I kinda disagree. Like a friend once said;

"Even a blind man can see the utility of collective wisdom and compounded knowledge".

I've watched prices go up despite 2 military coups over the years and still feel this is a world class city. It has gone up and will dip a bit but will continue the trend, I feel. It will be a trash investment IMHO only if it turns into a westernized plain vanilla city. Location location location!

Edited March 1, 2009 by ding

[BangkokWildcat]

A fitting quote from the Pattaya forum courtesy of rayong09.

"Some people will follow the sheep to what suits them at the time to make them fit in. A wise man will make his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public forum opinion."

Amen to that!

I kinda disagree. Like a friend once said;

"Even a blind man can see the utility of collective wisdom and compounded knowledge".

I've watched prices go up despite 2 military coups over the years and still feel this is a world class city. It has gone up and will dip a bit but will continue the trend, I feel. It will be a trash investment IMHO only if it turns into a westernized plain vanilla city. Location location location!

Yes, but that was before this worldwide economic crisis. Suggest you may want to start paying closer attention to the local economy. The situation is UNDOUBTEDLY getting worse here.... Have lived here 12 years now, work for a Fortune 100 company (and am involved in sales forecasting) and have some idea of what I'm talking about when it comes to the Thai economy.

I've been actively searching for a condo here in BKK over the last 6 months and have seen the same properties listed (and remaining unsold) and prices beginning to drop. I came extremely close to making a purchase last month but am now going to slow down my search and park my cash on the sidelines. I fully expect prices to drop significantly for at least this year and possibly a few more.

I am not alone in my thinking and even several of my real estate agents are admittedly recognizing this. I strongly suspect those who voice otherwise on this board have other "agendas" when they talk up the market at this time. Seriously, anybody who won't admit that prices will drop this year is either extremely ignorant or is not being honest, in my opinion.

[trogers]

Have lived here 12 years now, work for a Fortune 100 company (and am involved in sales forecasting) and have some idea of what I'm talking about when it comes to the Thai economy.

I've been actively searching for a condo here in BKK over the last 6 months and have seen the same properties listed (and remaining unsold) and prices beginning to drop. I came extremely close to making a purchase last month but am now going to slow down my search and park my cash on the sidelines. I fully expect prices to drop significantly for at least this year and possibly a few more.

I am not alone in my thinking and even several of my real estate agents are admittedly recognizing this. I strongly suspect those who voice otherwise on this board have other "agendas" when they talk up the market at this time. Seriously, anybody who won't admit that prices will drop this year is either extremely ignorant or is not being honest, in my opinion.

As a sales forecastor, you should also be more precise in forecasting.

Prices will fall, but to different degree for different classes of condos, and differing locations.

Prices usually fall first for uncompleted projects, esp those of unfavourable locations as banks raise risk evaluation for mortgage applications. Some projects may even become non-performing.

Next will be newly completed projects with a large number of units yet to be transferred.

Those properties that have been bought and sold in the last year or so would probably not have may units put out in the resale market. I would expect some forced sales due to unemployment or losses in the stock market. But most of these units would be under the local quota.

Projects sold and transferred more than 2 years ago will be more resilient as prices than would have been about 80% or less from the peak prices, and owners would have more holding power.

Only rental value will fall across the board due to falling demand for rental space. Old condo buildings in choice locations with units that have been recently refurbished will have the least impact from falling rental value as such space will be taken up by tenants of the higher end seeking 'cheaper' rents.

Edited March 2, 2009 by trogers

[BangkokWildcat]

Very good points but I wasn't trying to be "more precise in my forecasting"....just making a general observation of the market. Also didn't mean to imply that I'm involved in "real estate" sales forecasting but rather involved in assessing the current crappy state of the local economy.

[midas]

And they said it could never happen in Bangkok.............

Prices never fall in Bangkok.............

Property broker to offer 50 percent discount at 4 Bangkok condominium projects

by News Desk

Property broker and consultant Harrison has announced it will organise a grand sale offering discounts of up to 50 percent in an effort to close sales on 4 completed Bangkok projects that are already more than 80 percent sold.

http://www.property-report.com/property-ne...amp;date=250209