Phuket property glut?

[jamie obda]

Maybe this should be in the real estate forum, mods please move it if you agree.

I have an RSS feed for several real estate outlets. Normally I would get two or three postings in a week. Lately I've been getting about 3 or 4 a day. And I'm seeing stuff from all over the island, both commercial and residential, high end and low end, for sale, long term rent and even short term rent (the later seems odd as this would be peak season?)

I realize its hard to get a read on the Thai property market. Prices seem arbitrary and I know some Thai owners would rather keep a property empty than lower a price to sell. But I imagine there may be hundreds of properties availble as I am just getting a feed from a few outlets.

So, my question is:

Is this just the normal time for leases to come up? While it is a new year on the Western calendar, it isn't on the Thai calendar.

Or are people bailing out?

[NamKangMan]

In my opinion, the main reasons for the Phuket property glut are:

1) Oversupply - they have built too many condo's / apartments / houses which will eventually effect the property market by lowering prices, or, properties sitting derelict and fall into disrepair..

2) Yes, people are "bailing out" of Phuket. There is a higher cost of living here, failing critical infrastructure, lack of good Governance, destruction of the environment, terrible traffic, rising crime, drug abuse, no public transport, more violence particularly gun crime, bureaucracy surrounding visas, corrupt officials and police, greedy Thai landlords etc - all now having an effect on the numbers, and baht, on Phuket.

3) The Chinese are the majority of tourists to Phuket now. They will not buy property / bars / cafes / restaurants and take a Thai bar girl for their wife, as did westerners, just a few years ago, so, there are less potential buyers of everything on Phuket to advertise and market to. The Chinese will not buy a property to holiday in or retire to, on Phuket.

4) The collapse of the Russian Ruble due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. This decimated the Russian market.

5) Aging expat population. The old timers are passing on and not being replaced by the next generation of retiring western expats on Phuket.

[LivinginKata]

Good analysis NKM - I agree.

[phuketrichard]

agree;

i live here in kamala, plenty of homes for rent and sale, more than years before

YET they are just starting on 2 new HUGE projects near the beach

makers ya wonder if someone knows something we don't.

[NamKangMan]

agree;

i live here in kamala, plenty of homes for rent and sale, more than years before

YET they are just starting on 2 new HUGE projects near the beach

makers ya wonder if someone knows something we don't.

"makers ya wonder if someone knows something we don't" - casinos.

"Phuket, the Lasa Vegas of South East Asia."

[LivinginKata]

<snip>

makers ya wonder if someone knows something we don't.

The developers are always confident they can sell to a new mug buyer just off the plane ...

[KarenBravo]

A glut on all properties except those at the extreme high end; the multi-million dollar ones. All those great locations on head-lands all taken.

[phuketrichard]

1. new development main road to back in front of police station across from Fantasea.( where the Friday night market is)

high end homes 15-30 mil baht

2. new development from the beach, between the Cemetery and Novotel Hotel all the way up the hill across the road 200++rai, homes, condos, club on beach, shopping etc etc

Condos in Kamala start at over 5 mil now!! Amazing that any sell

Just drove to the big tesco on the by pass road,

between Kathu an the next intersection there must be over 100 shop houses ( 13rd or more empty) , 100's of small house behind and than new condos.

it has me baffled

i would not buy anything anymore here unless it came with a visa that gave me rights to stay as long as i owned the place i brought.

Edited January 3, 2016 by phuketrichard

[bearpolar]

Think rich people dont mind buying those estates for a week out of the year, the problem is the cheap shophouse projects .. those are bought by locals with big hopes and they quickly end up losing everything then running from lenders back to their village.

Only place where locals buy and earn/survive is Phuket town because all the Thais want to live there

[LivinginKata]

<snip>

i would not buy anything anymore here unless it came with a visa that gave me rights to stay as long as i owned the place i brought.

Dream on baby ... I myself would be happy enough if the 'authorities' would give me a speck of respect after paying my taxes, wife taxes, company taxes, property taxes for over 16 years now in Thailand. And now I am dreaming as the reality is that 'authorities' treat me like some crap under their shoe. Sad really ....

Edited January 3, 2016 by LivinginKata

[phuketrichard]

without dreams we are just animals

[KarenBravo]

without dreams we are just animals

No.....we're just insomniacs........

[Renter]

all these negative comments here are correct

one would have to have rocks in ur head to BUY any property here

they only want gullible ( preferably youngish & easily hoodwinked) 7 day millionaires who would fall for the pea & thimble trick

BTW - NKMan u are correct - i was told the die was cast about 2008 - i know one place that's allegedly earmarked & ever time i drive past i think - Yes it's ideal

[madmitch]

It seems to be having an effect on prices in certain markets as supply is outstripping demand; those wishing to sell quickly, and there are plenty of them, are reducing prices to a more realistic level and I'm sure good offers would now be accepted. And there's some logic. If a Russian sells at a THB loss, he can still make a rouble profit due to the rates of exchange.

Doesn't seem to apply to Thais.

There are many on here who know much more about real estate than I do so please correct me if i am wrong.

Edited January 3, 2016 by madmitch

[NamKangMan]

all these negative comments here are correct

one would have to have rocks in ur head to BUY any property here

they only want gullible ( preferably youngish & easily hoodwinked) 7 day millionaires who would fall for the pea & thimble trick

BTW - NKMan u are correct - i was told the die was cast about 2008 - i know one place that's allegedly earmarked & ever time i drive past i think - Yes it's ideal

I have been told many building designs have been requested, and not just on Phuket, to incorporate a floor, or section of the building, to have as less columns as possible, so as to give as much unobstructed view as possible, and the most possible open floor plan, and they are not going to be cinemas, bowling alleys, or nightclubs.

I'm sure all that extra foreign money floating around in the Thai economy will bring more "peace and happiness" to Thailand.

Edited January 3, 2016 by NamKangMan

[NamKangMan]

It seems to be having an effect on prices in certain markets as supply is outstripping demand; those wishing to sell quickly, and there are plenty of them, are reducing prices to a more realistic level and I'm sure good offers would now be accepted. And there's some logic. If a Russian sells at a THB loss, he can still make a rouble profit due to the rates of exchange.

Doesn't seem to apply to Thais.

There are many on here who know much more about real estate than I do so please correct me if i am wrong.

"and I'm sure good offers would now be accepted" - there's no one making any offers, that's why none of the property stocks are moving on Phuket, with more coming onto the market each day.

There's not even enough buyer to burst the Phuket property bubble.

Edited January 3, 2016 by NamKangMan

[DrDave]

I have been told many building designs have been requested, and not just on Phuket, to incorporate a floor, or section of the building, to have as less columns as possible, so as to give as much unobstructed view as possible, and the most possible open floor plan, and they are not going to be cinemas, bowling alleys, or nightclubs.

<snip>

Designs with no windows, I suppose.

The idea behind that design is to keep those inside "in the dark" in terms of being able to tell what time it is.

[phuketrichard]

no windows works in Vegas as u never know its day or night.

also note;

all restaurants/shops/elevators are in the BACK of the casino;

u need be very strong to pass 1,000 one armed bandits an not trying one or two :-)

+free drinks

I doubt u will see a casino in Thailand in the near future,

to much thai investment in the casinos in Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia

[NamKangMan]

no windows works in Vegas as u never know its day or night.

also note;

all restaurants/shops/elevators are in the BACK of the casino;

u need be very strong to pass 1,000 one armed bandits an not trying one or two :-)

+free drinks

I doubt u will see a casino in Thailand in the near future,

to much thai investment in the casinos in Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia

"to much thai investment in the casinos in Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia" - but "the house" takes their cut in Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia, that is, the Laos, Myanmar and Cambodian Governments.

Why wouldn't Thailand want the foreign investment building / fit out / infrastructure, the employment, the licensing fees, the listed public company profits, the gambling tourism and taxes, made in their own country, instead of next door?

Edited January 5, 2016 by NamKangMan

[KarenBravo]

Because they know it would cause a huge domestic problem as most Thais are gambling addicts-in-waiting.

Gambling in Thailand is illegal for a very good reason.

Edited January 5, 2016 by KarenBravo

[NamKangMan]

Because they know it would cause a huge domestic problem as most Thais are gambling addicts-in-waiting.

Gambling in Thailand is illegal for a very good reason.

They could simply do like they do in Vietnam.

No Vietnamese Nationals allow inside the casino, except staff. Problem solved.

[ozyjon]

Ageing ex-pat population. The old timers are passing on and not being replaced by the next generation of retiring western ex-pats on Phuket.

Well said and i agree.

[Colabamumbai]

Because they know it would cause a huge domestic problem as most Thais are gambling addicts-in-waiting.

Gambling in Thailand is illegal for a very good reason.

Gambling is done in every village in Thailand on a daily basis, with the permission of the local police who collect 3 or 400 Baht per day.

Everything that is illegal in Thailand is practiced freely on a daily basis.

[thaistocks]

Typical negatively slanted, by NamKanMan and more which seems to be the norm at this forum by so many.

While there is some truth, its sure not the full story. For one the global developing economies continue a prolonged lethargic lowest growth. This sort of caught up with the old guard tourists coming here; notably the collapse of the Russian currency & economy and all of EU being on the brinks. Hardly mentioned...this has nothing to with Phuket. The world has slowed down for some years now -and it cumulative effect is catching up.

The infrastructure issues are being broadly while never fully resolved likely mostly all over. The new Phuket Airport parking is great and the new Airport itself is being completed likely before this year end which will double capacity, as will various bypass/tunnel roads. Except for Chalong bypass which has just started. Hence Phuket traffic will likely improve as we can see at "Central Festival" which is an easy bypass now vs. a disaster 1-2 years ago when so many here stated it would flood and not solve the problem etc..again the example of over-negative. As to traffic: more all walks of people are taking mobile phone video clipps on bad driving and then posting these on Thai Facebook or other media..hardly available not long ago -and yes then action being taken. Just as most Van's now have their phone numbers listed on the back so to anybody can report bad driving to the owner/company. There is a new number to call 1158, to report any rogue driving, just as they are starting to confiscate cars by drunk drivers.

The island has no factories, many great pristine beaches easily accessible vastly cleaned up -or getting there. Phuket has been called the variety gastronomy of Thailand with its huge selection of many different restaurants, hardly expensive as compared to Western Europe, yet many just as good and/or with better service. Similar with Healthcare which purports a solidly growing retirement market. Retirees get an easy visa available at age 50 already, and pay no local or Thai taxes.

Yes there has been some overbuilding here on average on lower level housing, not least by expats whom are not very Thai investor wise. These only see an investment in property or real estate as viable -as they have no clue on interesting/valuable financial assets. Clear alternatives open to any foreign resident/investor here where many such choices pay high besides tax-favored regular dividends. Expats lack of more astute financial intermediation (savings/investment beyond property) has much to be desired and is a dire shortcoming by these, not a shortcoming of Phuket. And yet, dont' count on the local press to empower these.

[LivinginKata]

Typical negatively slanted, by NamKanMan and more which seems to be the norm at this forum by so many.

While there is some truth, its sure not the full story. For one the global developing economies continue a prolonged lethargic lowest growth. This sort of caught up with the old guard tourists coming here; notably the collapse of the Russian currency & economy and all of EU being on the brinks. Hardly mentioned...this has nothing to with Phuket. The world has slowed down for some years now -and it cumulative effect is catching up.

Quite agree ...

The new Phuket Airport parking is great

I do not agree. Not easy to find an empty bay, while the entire ground parking floor is empty. Remains a nightmare for parking. And the parking shuttle bus waiting is long. Last 2 times we walked from from the arrival door to parking.

and the new Airport itself is being completed likely before this year end which will double capacity, as will various bypass/tunnel roads. Except for Chalong bypass which has just started. Hence Phuket traffic will likely improve as we can see at "Central Festival" which is an easy bypass now vs. a disaster 1-2 years ago when so many here stated it would flood and not solve the problem etc..again the example of over-negative. As to traffic: more all walks of people are taking mobile phone video clipps on bad driving and then posting these on Thai Facebook or other media..hardly available not long ago -and yes then action being taken. Just as most Van's now have their phone numbers listed on the back so to anybody can report bad driving to the owner/company. There is a new number to call 1158, to report any rogue driving, just as they are starting to confiscate cars by drunk drivers.

Traffic flow continues to be a disaster at the south end of the Island

The island has no factories, many great pristine beaches easily accessible vastly cleaned up -or getting there.

Vastly cleaned up beaches - what Phuket do you live in. Beaches are becoming more and more poluted each year. None are being 'cleaned up'.

I have run out of quotes "Yes there has been some overbuilding here on average on lower level housing, not least by expats whom are not very Thai investor wise. These only see an investment in property or real estate as viable -as they have no clue on interesting/valuable financial assets. Clear alternatives open to any foreign resident/investor here where many such choices pay high besides tax-favored regular dividends. Expats lack of more astute financial intermediation (savings/investment beyond property) has much to be desired and is a dire shortcoming by these, not a shortcoming of Phuket. And yet, dont' count on the local press to empower these."

Clearly an estate agent or developer's pitch ...

Edited January 5, 2016 by LivinginKata

[kiwikeith]

In my opinion, the main reasons for the Phuket property glut are:

1) Oversupply - they have built too many condo's / apartments / houses which will eventually effect the property market by lowering prices, or, properties sitting derelict and fall into disrepair..

2) Yes, people are "bailing out" of Phuket. There is a higher cost of living here, failing critical infrastructure, lack of good Governance, destruction of the environment, terrible traffic, rising crime, drug abuse, no public transport, more violence particularly gun crime, bureaucracy surrounding visas, corrupt officials and police, greedy Thai landlords etc - all now having an effect on the numbers, and baht, on Phuket.

3) The Chinese are the majority of tourists to Phuket now. They will not buy property / bars / cafes / restaurants and take a Thai bar girl for their wife, as did westerners, just a few years ago, so, there are less potential buyers of everything on Phuket to advertise and market to. The Chinese will not buy a property to holiday in or retire to, on Phuket.

4) The collapse of the Russian Ruble due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. This decimated the Russian market.

5) Aging expat population. The old timers are passing on and not being replaced by the next generation of retiring western expats on Phuket.

Well said, however I think this trend is also happening all over Thailand, maybe more so in Phuket.

Lots of expats bailing out of Hua Hin and they also recieve less money than they paid for their houses.

Seems to me that there is also a property glut here as well , I see thousands of condos empty from Cha amm to Hua Hin and they are still building them.

Something has to crumble and property seems to be taking hits, then it would not want to be any dearer in my opinion.

[thaistocks]

--I use the covered & secure with lifts Airport parking regularly and never have any problems finding a spot.

--Yes, the free bus maybe a few minutes but the walk to the terminal is not far at all, besides will be 2 min. -right across- when the new Airport terminal opens within 2-3 months. Soft opening is planned for next month?

--I live here for over 25 years and while the beaches are as busy/populated as never before, we don't find them dirty and the water is crystal clean at this time of the season, again more slanting on negativity.

--The expats have only themselves to blame for not checking out more investor options then just buying yet another plot, or condo or building a home on land they may not own correctly. Clearly no pitch here, only added value intelligence for what its worth...and to you maybe nothing.

Edited January 5, 2016 by thaistocks

[Mr Wonderful]

MaiKhao Sansiri condos are going for 15Mil and up to 58M.

Bought three already. Russian ruble hit the market kind of hard but there are plenty of chinese and Taiwanese as well as Westerners.

USD is strong now

[Renter]

re thaistocks comments :-

I'd take anything he says with a BIG grain of salt as it sounds as though he's going to do & say everything he can to convince all that investing here is a smart move ( I don't think so !! )

Just look at his posting name "thaistocks" ---that tells us all we need to know about him

[LivinginKata]

--I use the covered & secure with lifts Airport parking regularly and never have any problems finding a spot.

--Yes, the free bus maybe a few minutes but the walk to the terminal is not far at all, besides will be 2 min. -right across- when the new Airport terminal opens within 2-3 months. Soft opening is planned for next month?

For sure better than the chaos of the old airport car park, but I still have to drive about all 4 levels trying to wait for someone to leave.

--I live here for over 25 years and while the beaches are as busy/populated as never before, we don't find them dirty and the water is crystal clean at this time of the season, again more slanting on negativity.

Personaly I never swim at the beaches, but I do listen to my many guests comments (oomplaints) about water polution at the busier beaches.

--The expats have only themselves to blame for not checking out more investor options then just buying yet another plot, or condo or building a home on land they may not own correctly. Clearly no pitch here, only added value intelligence for what its worth...and to you maybe nothing.

We (my Thai wife and myself) have almost 20 years of land purchases (some in wife name, some in company name, and all legal)and apartment building. I consider that I have a hands on and in-depth appreciation of the property market here in Phuket.