GB Pound will fall to around bt 39

[gamini]

Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists. This is due to two factors. Firstly what most people do not appreciate is the fact that that the prosperity of Britain during the last two decades was due to its membership of the EU. Secondly, in spite of what some TV posters claim, the Thai economy is in far better shape than most countries and the Thai baht is a strong currency. The GB Pound has been falling for the last 10 years from a high of 73 baht To 45 baht now. The UK government is not particularly concerned about the falling pound because it will help exports which will probably be subject to tariffs in the EU. The UK will have strong inflation which will be one of the reasons for the falling of the value of the GB pound.

[daveAustin]

The GB Pound has been falling for the last 10 years from a high of 73 baht To 45 baht now.

I agree that it will fall further, especially when interest rates are lowered, but the baht has also risen in that period and is heavily propped up. Low pound is crap for expats but they ain't concerned onshore since it is good for a number of criteria such as exports and tourism. I don't necessarily believe being a member of the EU had a big effect on the UK economy; more London being a global centre and the increased manufacturing base. Don't forget it was also the sick man of Europe in the 70-80s when it was also in Europe. Part of me welcomes a drop in the UK economy and a subsequent correcting of the property market, particularly in London with all the rich foreign investors putting ordinary housing out of reach of much of the rest of the UK. But, yes, crap for expats with pensions, UK investments etc.

[billd766]

quote "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists."

Your post may have some truth in it or not if you gave some links and references to just who the "leading economists" are and who they work for.

Strangely enough I did a Google search for "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists." and the only reference I found was from Thai visa on this very thread.

However without any references it doesn't mean very much.

The EU for example has even bigger financial problems with Greece and Italy not to mention Deutsche Bank but you have made no mention of that.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36723034

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36902088

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36898619

When the UK completes the Brexit which country will step up and increase their financial contributions?

The Netherlands, France and Germany are also possible contenders for an exit.

I read on the BBC News website this morning that Angela Merkel has ruled out a reversal of the immigration policy and will continue to permit virtually unrestricted immigration by "refugees". Who will pay for them?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36912141

Edited July 29, 2016 by billd766

[blackcab]

If it gets to 39 my Thai employers will be buying UK assets at a massive discount.

[alant]

The uk economy has been decining over the 40 + years of EU membership. Not that a further decline in sterling can be ruled out.

My thoughts are the BOE has pinned the nation into a corner by its lack of planning for this eventuality.

How will they square reducing interest to drive growth with increasing interest to tackle inflation?

[NUUM]

or... fortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht....

[oxo1947]

GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists.---OP

Who are...?....Please if you want to start a thread like that, at least provide some links to these --several leading economists

or we will all wonder just what you are smoking.....

[chiang mai]

I agree completely, 39 is easily achievable, it's been long overdue in the sense that GBP has been over strength for a long time.

And for the poster above who thinks THB is being propped up, please elaborate and tell us all how this is done and by whom?

[jonclark]

Would 39 baht to the pound be a bad thing?

If the GBP has been over valued, a lower value pound could give a big lift to the manufacturing sector and exports in the UK. The Chinese alleged keep the yuan undervalued and their manufacturing economy has positively thrived in the past 15 years?

Obviously UK pensions will be affected for some expats here would be considerably worse off.

But maybe in 10 years the pound will rebound to 75 to the baht. Most economic things are cyclical

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

In 5 years the Pound will be back at pre-Brexit levels. The reasons are:

The UK will negotiate bilateral trade agreements outside of the EU that will be more beneficial than the trade within the EU due to less regulations and trade constraints. The UK will be free of the heavy financial contributions to the EU this money can be saved through lower taxes or can be used to finance public projects or programmes. The EU exports more products and services to the UK than what they import from the UK. By cutting off trade with the UK will thus harm EU exporters more than what it will hurt the UK exporters. Due to this there will be a sensible trade agreement reached after Brexit. In 5 years the Euro zone will possibly not exist anymore although the EU may still exist in another form. The reason for this is that with yhe expansion of the EU countries was included that was not at the same development levels as the core members. The likes of Greece and Italy should not have been part of the Euro zone.

Brexit is a storm in a tea cup and the fearmongering and postering by EU members was an attempt to prevent the collapse of the EU. Now its only a question of time before other members leave the Euro zone.

[MissAndry]

The value of the pound is related to the bank base rate.

If the UK bank base rate is low, the pound is low.

The BoE and UK government are conspiring together to lower the value of the pound.

I'm not sure why.

Put the bank base rate up to 5%, and the pound would shoot up 20-30% overnight.

But that isn't going to happen because the government want to have cheap loans for all their pals running a business, at the expense of the 'little people'.

I remember the 80s, Thatcher would say, 'economy in trouble, sorry we have to raise the base rate'.

Now they say the opposite, because they are more in the pocket of big business.

Edited July 29, 2016 by MissAndry

[chiang mai]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

Edited July 29, 2016 by chiang mai

[salavan]

the pound over valued at 1 pound = 1 us dollar ?

[chiang mai]

The value of the pound is related to the bank base rate.

If the UK bank base rate is low, the pound is low.

The BoE and UK government are conspiring together to lower the value of the pound.

I'm not sure why.

Put the bank base rate up to 5%, and the pound would shoot up 20-30% overnight.

But that isn't going to happen because the government want to have cheap loans for all their pals running a business, at the expense of the 'little people'.

I remember the 80s, Thatcher would say, 'economy in trouble, sorry we have to raise the base rate'.

Now they say the opposite, because they are more in the pocket of big business.

Quite right MJM, quite right!

Edited July 29, 2016 by chiang mai

[worgeordie]

The Euro has lots of problems too,at least the Southern European countries do,

looks like the whole World is in financial turmoil,with people and countries up to

their eyes in debt,maybe a reason that there are such low interest rates for

the savers,the responsible folk who don't overspend and live within their means.

while everything is geared to help those that are in debt,plus the Banks are always

looking for handouts too.

regards worgeordie

[salavan]

the lowest it has ever been was in 1985 when it was 1.05 dollar to the pound

[MissAndry]

The decline in the value of GBP against THB has almost nothing to do with Brexit, all Brexit has done is accelerate the process hence looking for pre-Brexit values in 5 years time is a waste of time, you need to look elsewhere for the reasons why and the potential cures. This may help:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

"Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned that the Bank of England may not be able to raise interest rates at all if Britains recovery slows."

So the same analysts that have driven their own bank to the limits of solvency, are trusted to predict this?

I mean, if they're that clever, why is their bank about to go bust?

Edited July 29, 2016 by MissAndry

[chiang mai]

DB's problems are legacy ones, their analysis is fine but they can't implement change because they're overburdened, mostly because of the ECB and a carry over Lehmans;

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/signs-of-trouble-for-deutsche-bank/

[chiang mai]

the lowest it has ever been was in 1985 when it was 1.05 dollar to the pound

I'm sure we'll see that again.

[Nbarch]

The problem with making forecasts about BREXIT and Sterling is that no one knows what will happen. The referendum vote was supposed to be 52/48 in favour of remaining, but the unknown factor were people voting who never vote in elections and do not talk to pollsters. (This is part of Trump’s popularity).

The UK government ‘remain campaign’ was called Project Fear proposing the calamitous events that would happen if the UK left the UK. Even the discredited IMF joined in, who I noticed today apologized for ruining Greece economy by supporting them staying in the Euro.

The UK people were told by the government that, if the UK voted to leave there would be an immediate emergency budget; this was cancelled as it was not necessary. Also proposed emergency interest rate cut, cancelled again. Note that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world, Sterling has dropped what 8% hardly a disaster and a weak Pound is good for exports etc…

I am reminded of what happened when the UK fell out of the EMF in the 80’s, a far worse event then BREXIT, only two years later the UK economy was very strong.

The best financial advice is a quote from my stockbroker who used to say to me about investing;

“If I knew what I was doing I would not be talking to you now but I would be on a yacht somewhere sunny”

[chiang mai]

Once again, this is not a Brexit issue, it's a current account deficit issue.

http://blogs.ft.com/andrew-smithers/2014/04/why-sterling-is-overvalued/

[gamini]

quote "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists."

Your post may have some truth in it or not if you gave some links and references to just who the "leading economists" are and who they work for.

Strangely enough I did a Google search for "Unfortunately the GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists." and the only reference I found was from Thai visa on this very thread.

However without any references it doesn't mean very much.

The EU for example has even bigger financial problems with Greece and Italy not to mention Deutsche Bank but you have made no mention of that.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36723034

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36902088

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36898619

When the UK completes the Brexit which country will step up and increase their financial contributions?

The Netherlands, France and Germany are also possible contenders for an exit.

I read on the BBC News website this morning that Angela Merkel has ruled out a reversal of the immigration policy and will continue to permit virtually unrestricted immigration by "refugees". Who will pay for them?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36912141

The points which you have raised have little to do with my post. I personally have no views on Brexit. My information was gleaned on a lot of research about the GP pound since among others, I have considerable assets in that currency.

As far as the UK contribution to the EU budget. It gets back about the same as it puts in, so the EU will not be effected

[peterb17]

Actually there has been no decrease in property prices and they are forecast to rise- although at a reduced rate.

The inflation rate is tiny ( I wish it was a bit more as my pension is index linked)

Maybe the pound will fall further- maybe not .

The Brexit has not resulted in total meltdown, the FTSE has recovered very well.

For once I think we have a decent new prime minister , and after Brexit the country will be fine.

[freebyrd]

Back in 1989, the Baht was 39 to the pound. I will be making a quarterly transfer from the UK soon, GBP to US$ account. I will get around $400 less than I did 3 months ago. That's the way the cookie crumbles, no point crying over spilt milk.

[12DrinkMore]

the pound over valued at 1 pound = 1 us dollar ?

The US economy is in fact actually growing. They have even had the house pricee correction. The Fed is also muttering about raising interest rates. And the USD is the world's reserve currency.

The UK doesn't seem to export much these days, it has been running an increasing current account deficit for years. I doubt whether the UK will be able to make "advantageous" deals with the Eurozone. There will be a lot of political pressure in Europe to penalise the bad boy. Do not expect any "lucrative" deals for the UK, which it could not even achieve when in the EU. Not moving from the GBP to the EUR was always going to put the UK on the outside of European leadership. "Not one of the club".

The big earner over the last decade has been the financial services sector running out of London. There will be pressure on European banks to move back to Europe and London will become less significant anyway as the Asians will be dealing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

So now we have Theresa coming to "boost the north" and rejuvenate the economy. But unfortunately the "shovel ready" projects have still not been prepared.

The UK has been in decline for decades, masked by the growth in the financial services, which I personally regard as more of a parasite full of rent seekers. This cannot be blamed on Brexit, but put firmly on the attitude of the Brits themselves, regarding themselves still as having an empire controlling 60% of the world's trade and feeling wealthy due to rising propoerty prices.

I have colleagues in the UK who have gotten very lazy, sitting back and stating they can earn more from rising house prices than bothering to work. Sums it up.

So come on, give me some good news.

What has the UK got that the world is going to want to buy?

[gamini]

GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists.---OP

Who are...?....Please if you want to start a thread like that, at least provide some links to these --several leading economists

or we will all wonder just what you are smoking.....

Far too many to quote here. If you yourself did a bit of research and read up even some of the views of economists on the Internet I think that you will agree with me

[gamini]

GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists.---OP

Who are...?....Please if you want to start a thread like that, at least provide some links to these --several leading economists

or we will all wonder just what you are smoking.....

Far too many to quote here. But one of them was my UK broker whose advice I sought about the UK Pound. He suggested selling off all my sterling assets . Incidentally my broker is a director of one of England's biggest investment companies which have a large internal research division.If you yourself did a bit of research and read up even some of the views of economists on the Internet I think that you will agree with me

[i claudius]

the lowest it has ever been was in 1985 when it was 1.05 dollar to the pound

I'm sure we'll see that again.

In your dreams , and when we have a muslim prime minister that was an immegrant , just what the PC brigade would have an orgasm over .

[i claudius]

GB Pound will probably fall to about 39 Baht or even further according to several leading economists.---OP

Who are...?....Please if you want to start a thread like that, at least provide some links to these --several leading economists

or we will all wonder just what you are smoking.....

Far too many to quote here. If you yourself did a bit of research and read up even some of the views of economists on the Internet I think that you will agree with me

Well just quote 3 i cant find them

[i claudius]

the pound over valued at 1 pound = 1 us dollar ?

The US economy is in fact actually growing. They have even had the house pricee correction. The Fed is also muttering about raising interest rates. And the USD is the world's reserve currency.

The UK doesn't seem to export much these days, it has been running an increasing current account deficit for years. I doubt whether the UK will be able to make "advantageous" deals with the Eurozone. There will be a lot of political pressure in Europe to penalise the bad boy. Do not expect any "lucrative" deals for the UK, which it could not even achieve when in the EU. Not moving from the GBP to the EUR was always going to put the UK on the outside of European leadership. "Not one of the club".

The big earner over the last decade has been the financial services sector running out of London. There will be pressure on European banks to move back to Europe and London will become less significant anyway as the Asians will be dealing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

The UK has a fixation on the sacred cow of house prices. There was never really a huge correction, which is politically very sensitive. Any party that allowed the house prices to fall would be voted out. But now it has reached the point where most people under the age of 45 is unlikely to ever own a property, even with the historically low interest rates. They are simply paying too much in rent to be able to save for the large deposits required nowadays. This is incredibly bad for the economy, but chronic and continuing shortsightedness by governments over two decades has led to a massive housing shortfall.

So now we have Theresa coming to "boost the north" and rejuvenate the economy. But unfortunately the "shovel ready" projects have still not been prepared.

The UK has been in decline for decades, masked by the growth in the financial services, which I personally regard as more of a parasite full of rent seekers. This cannot be blamed on Brexit, but put firmly on the attitude of the Brits themselves, regarding themselves still as having an empire controlling 60% of the world's trade and feeling wealthy due to rising propoerty prices.

I have colleagues in the UK who have gotten very lazy, sitting back and stating they can earn more from rising house prices than bothering to work. Sums it up.

So come on, give me some good news.

What has the UK got that the world is going to want to buy?

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