What Do Thailand’s New Economic Numbers Say About Its Political Future?

[webfact]

What Do Thailand’s New Economic Numbers Say About Its Political Future?

The good news masks a still uncertain road ahead for the ruling junta.

By Luke Hunt

 

Though the neverending wait for Thailand’s return to democratic rule since the military seized power back in May 2014 shows few signs of ending anytime soon, recent figures do suggest that the country’s economy is showing indications of improving.

 

While the latest data released did admittedly fall slightly below expectations amid a drop in state spending, gross domestic product grew by 4 percent, year-on-year, in the fourth quarter, and the outlook for 2018 appears to be quite bright.

 

It was the best result in five years, with GDP up by an inflation-adjusted 3.9 percent in 2017, from 3.3 percent in the previous calendar year. That should please Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, whose military government has faced criticism for its handling of the economy since it seized power in the coup and has since consistently delayed promised elections and a return to democracy.

 

Full story:  https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/what-do-thailands-new-economic-numbers-say-about-its-political-future/

 

-- THE DIPLOMAT 2018-03-02

[ramrod711]

I can hardly wait to hear all the election promises and slogans. I think a suitable and possibly  effective slogan might be; Vote for us, we will steal you blind but we will do it with a nice smile and a wai.

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

outlook for 2018 appears to be quite bright.

We know.  The anonymous super wealthy of Thailand will have a great life while the other 99.99% struggle with debt and poor job opportunities. 

[RichardColeman]

Sorry,  but I feel most Thai figures are about as 'B' as a Bill and Ted journey !

[jvs]

1 hour ago, ramrod711 said:

I can hardly wait to hear all the election promises and slogans. I think a suitable and possibly  effective slogan might be; Vote for us, we will steal you blind but we will do it with a nice smile and a wai.

Like in every other country in the world.

[Eric Loh]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

What Do Thailand’s New Economic Numbers Say About Its Political Future?

I say that is only catching up after crashing the economy post coup to only 0.7% GDP and causing revenue collection to its historic low relatively. As for future, it looks like heading to an unbalance economy with over dependence on external demand and no re-balance of growth towards the domestic consumption. Still enormous income gap and continue province disparity in income, investment, social and education. The flight of FDI to Vietnam and Philippines will affect Thailand in years to come in terms of technology and employment. Coup is never good for economy; period.  

[steven100]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

recent figures do suggest that the country’s economy is showing indications of improving.

Well ... well .....  I wouldn't have guessed   !      but the TV farang seem to think they know all.  

Thailand's economy grew at its fastest pace in over four years in the fourth quarter, led by stronger exports and a boost from the tourism and agricultural sectors, suggesting the recovery is gaining momentum. The government also raised its forecasts for economic growth and exports for this year.

[yellowboat]

24 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I say that is only catching up after crashing the economy post coup to only 0.7% GDP and causing revenue collection to its historic low relatively. As for future, it looks like heading to an unbalance economy with over dependence on external demand and no re-balance of growth towards the domestic consumption. Still enormous income gap and continue province disparity in income, investment, social and education. The flight of FDI to Vietnam and Philippines will affect Thailand in years to come in terms of technology and employment. Coup is never good for economy; period.  

The coup leaders come off as custodians of the wealthy.  Even if there were some gains, few outside the golden circle would see a better life.  

 

Little p's  main cheerleader on the forum likes to post pictures of the man in GQ poses and espouses the economic progress, but fails to show how it helps him or other Thais.   I met such a Thai when having a drink one afternoon.  She worked at one of the chip foundries.  She loved her job, but was chatting up guys for extra money to get her kids out of foster care.  Her husband was absent.  That is what I think of when I hear about all these wonderful economic stats.  A well dressed junta that looks like any other facistnista, autocratic government. 

[smutcakes]

From what i can see the drivers for recent improvement are due to an upturn in global demand increasing exports and the Government spending like drunken sailors on infrastructure projects. By all accounts domestic consumption has not seen any upturn.

[RichardColeman]

I predict an enormous financial hole in the economy if the Army does not get back in in some way, trying to make up the loss in medal ribbon baht will be astronomically difficult !!

Edited March 2, 2018 by RichardColeman

[tomta]

39 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I predict an enormous financial hole in the economy if the Army does not get back in in some way, trying to make up the loss in medal ribbon baht will be astronomically difficult !!

And  production of silk jackets will also plummet. Steven100 has the info on this.

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

From what i can see the drivers for recent improvement are due to an upturn in global demand increasing exports and the Government spending like drunken sailors on infrastructure projects. By all accounts domestic consumption has not seen any upturn.

That's because half the money for the infrastructure projects gets filched by civil servants and crooked contractors even before anything starts or anyone is employed. These projects only reflect an upturn in the bank accounts of the prior mentioned and a few other assorted hangers-on. The real people never get to see any benefit.

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

the Government spending like drunken sailors on infrastructure projects

One can only wish that was the case. That would mean the government would be spending Thai people's hard cash.

The reality is that the government can't get neither domestic entrepreneur or foreign capital funding for its projects and instead borrows from foreign nations.

So it's more like those drunken sailors hand out a load of IOU's for cash that they spend on projects for which they have no idea of financial success.

Kind of like playing a slot machine using a credit card. What can go wrong?

[kolkolkol]

On 3/2/2018 at 12:41 PM, RichardColeman said:

I predict an enormous financial hole in the economy if the Army does not get back in in some way, trying to make up the loss in medal ribbon baht will be astronomically difficult !!

Thats not his concern. Now the priority is to sell all that watches to buy enough votes

[ramrod711]

On ‎3‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 8:43 AM, jvs said:

Like in every other country in the world.

Minus the Wai of course.

[metisdead]

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