BREAKING NEWS Thai boys trapped in cave to be given 4 months of food and taught how to dive

[ravip]

1 hour ago, pathologix said:

Looking at some of the video and reading some of the analysis, this seems really tough. Draining a fast flowing river sounds like a sisyphean endeavor. 

Absolutely correct. One who have seen water will understand this!

[HHTel]

2 hours ago, steve73 said:

It would probably be possible to helicopter in a drill rig suitable for say a 4-6 inch hole. (This is the kind of kit that they normally transport on a pick-up truck).  Drill debris is normally displaced back to surface using circulating water (or drill mud), so they would also need a large water source at the top of the mountain.  But if they hit a small fracture, then the fluid would leak away and they may not be able to displace the debris.  The drill may then get stuck... A large fracture would probably take the debris - at least for a while.  If successful, and they manage to hit the target, a 4-6" hole could at least be used to provide supplies more safely in the event that the cave did severely flood again making the underwater route impassable.

But a drill rig necessary to drill say a 20" hole suitable to haul up the children is a much larger piece of kit - way beyond the capacity of a helicopter, and even if it was broken down into smaller pieces and reassembled on site, you've still got the problems of removing the debris, since a 20" hole requires a lot more water to keep it clean.

 

But if they can find natural fissures and shafts (probably involving some additional digging - by hand of course) which wind their way down to the bottom streamway, then this becomes a possible egress route.  It's much safer to haul people up dry shafts, even if it requires them to do some crawling in a few horizontal sections, than dragging them out through underwater passages... But as yet no such complete access shafts have been found - or least none have been reported.

 

It's already been acknowledged that because of the inaccuracy of the maps, a drill can be as much as a hundred metres 'off course'.  That said, drilling seems quite a dangerous option until they can find a way of pinpointing their location.

[Jingthing]

It's looking now that they are probably headed towards diving them out after they regain some strength and get some training. No choice is without risk. Almost as much drama as the England Colombia shootout last night.

 

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[pathologix]

The one option we seem to hear the least about - finding a chimney or other entrance to this part of the "main" cave - sounds to this layperson like the safest exit for the kids. 

 

I'm sure that they have been ceaselessly scouring the area for entrances for the past 11 days. Does the lack of progress mean it's a lost cause? 

 

Also - I know there aren't any good maps of this cave... But does anybody know what the cave is like deeper than where they are? Have previous visitors to the cave talked about large, potentially safer caverns further in? Has the SEAL team been exploring the options beyond the current location? Surely someone with knowledge has been interviewed?

[thenoilif]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

It's looking now that they are probably headed towards diving them out after they regain some strength and get some training. No choice is without risk. Almost as much drama as the England Colombia shootout last night.

 

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Comparing a life and death situation to a football match...probably a joke but not one in good taste.

 

I do agree though that they are probably going to dive them out. I think the pending rains may pose a lot of unforeseeable issues that the rescuers may not want to risk battling through. 

[Jingthing]

Comparing a life and death situation to a football match...probably a joke but not one in good taste.
 
I do agree though that they are probably going to dive them out. I think the pending rains may pose a lot of unforeseeable issues that the rescuers may not want to risk battling through. 

Uh uh. The joke police have arrived.

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[sanemax]

On 7/3/2018 at 9:36 AM, canardo said:

Food for 4 month? Wow, didn't see that coming, that it could take soooo long... 

They will probably be so hungry , that all the food will get eaten in one day

[GroveHillWanderer]

20 hours ago, biplanebluey said:

This idea of  4 month course on diving really worries me.

They're not talking about a 4-month course on diving. The latest reports say they could be able to give them enough training to get some of them out within a matter of days.

 

The 4 months is in case they can't get them out safely using diving equipment or any of the other proposed methods and have to keep them there until the rainy season is over.

[Sheryl]

Options IMO would as follows.
1. Drain the water level such that kids can crawl out.  (The risk here is a sudden down pour could flood the cave again whilst they're in egress).
2. Train the kids to be confident using mask to be able to pull themselves out using the guide ropes.  They don't need to be able to swim, since they'll be assisted by competent divers.  (It may be that only some of the kids would be confident to do this and it may be a problem if the team were split, but at least it would mean that some of them were reunited with their families sooner).
3. Continue to try to find some natural access from the surface.
4. Wait until the end of the dry season - 4 months is a long time, and there are additional risks not only to the kids, but also to the rescue teams that either remain with them or that keep diving in and out. 
 
For the reasons I mentioned previously, I don't believe drilling an access shaft (aka the Chilean rescue) is achievable in this case.
 

The problem from what I have read re #2 is that there are sections so narrow that the experienced divers would not be able to help them through, they'd have to go alone single file.

The world's most expert cave divers had trouble in these spots.

If it were not for these areas then indeed an escorted dive out, using full face masks, would be the best approach assuming the kids were willing and had been able to learn the basics. But with this, the risks and complexity of what the kids would have to do is much greater. My impression is that it would be physically impossible to rescue them if they got in trouble in those tight passages because there just isn't enough room for a rescuer to manuever.

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[HHTel]

Whatever option is chosen, I hope it doesn't endanger anyone's life.

It's been said many times that these kids cannot swim.  Not sure where that originated but the latest that I'm reading says that they can swim.  Their coach says they can swim.  Their parents say they can swim.  One of their activities is 'swimming in waterfalls'.

 

The authorities as usual issue plenty of misinformation.  Statement on Tuesday said they would be rescued in the next day or so.  Another source says they will be rescued before the end of the week.  One source says they will be brought out one or two at a time yet another source says that the 'dive' rescue won't even be attempted unless all the boys can be rescued at the same time.

 

I suppose that's pretty normal for Thai authorities, each speaking his own mind with no co-ordination with anyone else.

 

On top of all that, most if not all of the experts have said that a 'dive' rescue is the most dangerous option.  If it takes experts 3 hours to do the round trip, how are the boys going to cope?

[Eligius]

3 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Whatever option is chosen, I hope it doesn't endanger anyone's life.

It's been said many times that these kids cannot swim.  Not sure where that originated but the latest that I'm reading says that they can swim.  Their coach says they can swim.  Their parents say they can swim.  One of their activities is 'swimming in waterfalls'.

 

The authorities as usual issue plenty of misinformation.  Statement on Tuesday said they would be rescued in the next day or so.  Another source says they will be rescued before the end of the week.  One source says they will be brought out one or two at a time yet another source says that the 'dive' rescue won't even be attempted unless all the boys can be rescued at the same time.

 

I suppose that's pretty normal for Thai authorities, each speaking his own mind with no co-ordination with anyone else.

 

On top of all that, most if not all of the experts have said that a 'dive' rescue is the most dangerous option.  If it takes experts 3 hours to do the round trip, how are the boys going to cope?

This really is disgraceful - if the claim that all of the boys are non-swimmers is a complete lie. It was reported as factual by the BBC (but that does not necessarily prove anything). I wonder if certain Authorities realised that having so many young Thai men publicly proclaimed as being unable to swim 'damaged the image of Thailand' and so are now 'encouraging' a new story - that they can. In Thailand, any kind of machinations and lies are possible - sad to say.

[DavisH]

On 7/3/2018 at 9:23 AM, robblok said:

I read about it in one of the news articles that at some passages they had to take the tank off. That gives a good indication of how small the passages are. I like your idea but i don't think its practical in this scenario unless they widen passages. 

 

What I don't understand is (but I don't know where they exactly are) that they don't drill. Of course if they are too deep under that might take a long time too.

2

It's 800m to 1 km below the surface. Too deep to drill I guess. Yes some passages are too narrow to get through even with the tanks on. I don't think they can wait 4 months - couldn't more flooding completely inundate all of the cave? I think the students will need to dive and go escorted one at a time. I don't see any other way. I hope eventually the pumping will work, provided there is little rain over the next couple of weeks. 

[connda]

On 7/3/2018 at 5:36 PM, connda said:

Hate to be facetious but I wonder if movie rights to this drama are already being negotiated by the grifters who always can see dollar-signs around a potential tragedy.   I only say that due to the fact that there always seems to be media and Hollywood bottom-feeders who will be out to make a buck out of something built off of the backs of quite a bit of heroic action on the part of many people.  Sad, but true.
 

Humm ?

[Trisha Tillery]

would it be possible to sedate the boys and bring them out one at a time with the diver directing them?  i would think that if the boys got an anxiety pill prior to diving they would be less anxious about the experience and with the experienced diver directing them out.  it's just a thought i felt obligated to send out there somehow and came upon this website.

 

[pathologix]

43 minutes ago, Trisha Tillery said:

would it be possible to sedate the boys and bring them out one at a time with the diver directing them?  i would think that if the boys got an anxiety pill prior to diving they would be less anxious about the experience and with the experienced diver directing them out.  it's just a thought i felt obligated to send out there somehow and came upon this website.

 

Buried deep in some of these long threads, a few people have suggested the same (and others have argued against it). I suspect that if it's a viable option, it's being considered. 

 

My wholly ignorant guess would be that they would want the kids as alert and on-point as possible for such a complicated evacuation. Panic is only one of the dangers; I would think all of the other dangers would be increased by having a sedated diver. Plus, experimenting with drugs in these conditions seems pretty risky – there's no way to get a child to a hospital if they have an adverse reaction to a drug they've never been exposed to. And vomiting during the dive would be a catastrophe.

Edited July 4, 2018 by pathologix

[jerry921]

6 hours ago, Eligius said:

This really is disgraceful - if the claim that all of the boys are non-swimmers is a complete lie. It was reported as factual by the BBC (but that does not necessarily prove anything). I wonder if certain Authorities realised that having so many young Thai men publicly proclaimed as being unable to swim 'damaged the image of Thailand' and so are now 'encouraging' a new story - that they can. In Thailand, any kind of machinations and lies are possible - sad to say.

I saw a video of an interviewer with a British rescuer - I think it was one of the famous two - where at the end they asked about whether they could swim and he just shook his head sadly. I'm sorry I can't find the link again.

[Scott]

4 hours ago, Trisha Tillery said:

would it be possible to sedate the boys and bring them out one at a time with the diver directing them?  i would think that if the boys got an anxiety pill prior to diving they would be less anxious about the experience and with the experienced diver directing them out.  it's just a thought i felt obligated to send out there somehow and came upon this website.

 

That would not be a very good idea.   First there is no way of predicting how anyone would react to anti-anxiety medication.   Second, for children the dosage would be harder to estimate, especially given the weight loss and physical condition, but mostly, they are going to need to have their wits about them when they are moved.  

 

 

[Eligius]

4 hours ago, jerry921 said:

I saw a video of an interviewer with a British rescuer - I think it was one of the famous two - where at the end they asked about whether they could swim and he just shook his head sadly. I'm sorry I can't find the link again.

Yes, it seems that the truth is they cannot swim (and this would fit the reality in Thailand, as many, many Thais cannot swim). Even the Belgian rescue worker - one of the major foreign individuals here - has said that the boys cannot swim. So it seems that the sudden story that 'oh, they can all swim' is quite possibly one put out to 'save national face'. That would not surprise me in the least - given the nationalism of the current regime.

 

 

Edited July 4, 2018 by Eligius

[Hummin]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

Yes, it seems that the truth is they cannot swim (and this would fit the reality in Thailand, as many, many Thais cannot swim). Even the Belgian rescue worker - one of the major foreign individuals here - has said that the boys cannot swim. So it seems that the sudden story that 'oh, they can all swim' is quite possibly one put out to 'save national face'. That would not surprise me in the least - given the nationalism of the current regime.

 

 

I see many is worried about them can not swim, but truly if they are going to be geared up, they need to handle the gear they are getting, and use it how they are teached, and diving have  very little in common with swimming  inside a confined limited space with almost zero visibilty! Bouyency will be the hardest part in moving water, even hauling out on a rope! It will be to teach breathing, keep head calm, trust, and move step by step in a long time with no communication with their savior, keeping bouant in moving water. Very few people in the world can do that, and I would guess out of 10 normal people very few of them will survive the try. I have been doing extreme sports for 35 years, and there is always one or two out of ten that freeze or do mistakes when they experience a dangerous situation, and can not execute learned and drilled emergency procedure. And this is people who seek out danger,  ut only learn their weekness when stress and danger apply at the same time. 

 

As said before good to have their mind focused and something happens for them, and their relatives, but the diving out option,  seems to me as an very little realistic.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Hummin

[fullcave]

Why not use those sea walker devices they use in the tourist industry and simply walk them out, sump by sump. The water can't be that deep and you don't need to be able to swim. Diving helmets as used in commercial diving are another option and again can walk them out, no swimming required. Maybe time to change management if leaving them in there for months is all they can come up with. 

 

 

[Gandtee]

7 minutes ago, fullcave said:

Why not use those sea walker devices they use in the tourist industry and simply walk them out, sump by sump. The water can't be that deep and you don't need to be able to swim. Diving helmets as used in commercial diving are another option and again can walk them out, no swimming required. Maybe time to change management if leaving them in there for months is all they can come up with. 

 

 

Obviously you haven't read the reports. Some of the passages have to be wriggled through as they are so narrow. Certainly 'walking' through is out of the question.

[gk10002000]

string some low power cables so not danger of electrocution or shock.  Or some battery packs with about 5 days of 12 v dc power for low power LED lights, of course an ethernet cable for computer communication, even schooling, or whatever to keep them busy.  Some more comfortable bedding. Can't tell from the photos if they are on a narrow beach head or if they just are all clustered near the water to see the rescuers.  Of course their should be a parallel effort to improve the access and path to them, widen a few hair pin turns, hammer out a few spaces, whatever.  Rig some winches to interim beach heads.  Hopefully, but with some doubts that the Thais can be that organized, but they are getting advice so hopefully smart choices will be made

[HHTel]

Well, the head coach of the team has also confirmed that these kids can swim and that they swim often.

 

http://www.topicza.com/news75925.html?d=04072018&f=39528

 

Watching Thai tv this morning and it's reported that the kids said that while they were waiting to be found, they could hear dogs barking and chickens squawking!

[DavisH]

Even if it kids can swim (aside from the occasional splash in the klong, which they all do), scuba diving through narrow crevices in water with almost no visibility, will require much more than just being able to swim. They will need to do it anyway - staying there over the wet season is too risky. I would think once the kids are back to full strength they will be up for the challenge, but they will have to go one by one and take it slowly. 

[pathologix]

2 hours ago, gk10002000 said:

but with some doubts that the Thais can be that organized, but they are getting advice so hopefully smart choices will be made

Wow.... seriously? Thai officials have been praised by experts around the word for organising one of the most complex cave rescues ever seen. But don't let facts get in the way of your racism.

Edited July 5, 2018 by pathologix

[Sheryl]

Why not use those sea walker devices they use in the tourist industry and simply walk them out, sump by sump. The water can't be that deep and you don't need to be able to swim. Diving helmets as used in commercial diving are another option and again can walk them out, no swimming required. Maybe time to change management if leaving them in there for months is all they can come up with. 
 
 

5 meters deep in sections.

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[mike324]

with visibility being almost zero, diving is a stupid option. What if the masks slips out or gets caught on something during the dive, the seals won't be able to help them in time. Given that the kids won't have their own oxygen tanks, but will rely on the seals tank with an extra oxygen line, the risks increases quite a bit.

 

I think drilling is the best option, paving roads to the cave really isn't a problem at all.

[Gulfsailor]

Thailand has quite a bit of experience with weather manipulation and cloud seeding. I suggest they put their knowledge to use and heavily seed the clouds far enough upwind from the mountain range, so that the rain drops there and not on the mountain. A problem may be the willingness of neighboring Myanmar or Laos to cooperate, depending on prevailing wind direction. 

[Hummin]

2 hours ago, mike324 said:

with visibility being almost zero, diving is a stupid option. What if the masks slips out or gets caught on something during the dive, the seals won't be able to help them in time. Given that the kids won't have their own oxygen tanks, but will rely on the seals tank with an extra oxygen line, the risks increases quite a bit.

 

I think drilling is the best option, paving roads to the cave really isn't a problem at all.

The best hope is to find a open crack to where they are, and get them out there diving or not a shorter distanse

[steve73]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

5 meters deep in sections.

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...but they might be 10+m deep in a few days... with much stronger currents.

 

I wonder if they've had anyone climbing up to the top of the chamber they're in (or any of the high points in the cave sections) checking what's above, either looking for either a possible way out or a safer high-level chamber (if they do need to sit it out for 4 months, and the water level rises further).  Different skillset required for that of course.