'Not Working' – Doubts Raised Over Tham Luang Cave Rescue Plan

[webfact]

'Not Working' – Doubts Raised Over Cave Rescue Plan

By Jintamas Saksornchai, Staff Reporter

 

 

CHIANG RAI — Celebrity twin rescuers said Thursday that it’s too dangerous to bring 13 people out through the cave’s entrance, suggesting finding or making a rescue shaft might be a better option.

 

Anxiety is running high over the fate of the group which has been trapped inside the Luang Khun Nam Nang Non cave in Chiang Rai province since June 23. Although flooding is a major obstacle and storms are expected soon, officials for now seem intent on a lowering water levels enough for them to come out the way they came.

 

Full story:  http://www.khaosodenglish.com/featured/2018/07/05/not-working-doubts-raised-over-cave-rescue-plan/

 

-- © Copyright Khaosod English 2018-07-06

[4MyEgo]

They should have at least a back up plan, the long dive to get them out, should be plan 2 IMO

[samjaidee]

I had no idea there were any celebrities involved in the rescue.

[Xaos]

Why rush? Just wait it out. Better then risk lives.

[robblok]

I wish what I would have wanted myself.. get out now with a high risk.. or stay there for 4 months.

 

IMHO and I say that without knowing too much about the problems of drilling, they should either drill in the tunnels before or after the boys if possible. But drilling experts should make that call, if possible even if that takes a month it would be safer in my opinion. I read that it takes divers 10 hours on a single trip.. now try to do that with untrained boys.. the risk are huge.

[Briggsy]

This pair are not divers. They are head of a self-appointed traffic accident responding, body-collecting organisation that has been involved repeatedly in shoot-outs, reported in the press, with other such organisations as each one defends its body-collecting, accident-chasing turf. They undoubtedly invited themselves to this incident to help with the pumping.

 

They should shut up and leave the dive rescue to the dive rescue experts and also respect the lines of communication the authorities have set up to release information. Putting out inaccurate or incomplete pictures of the situation can lead to unnecessary distress for those waiting for news.

[peperobi]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

CHIANG RAI — Celebrity twin rescuers said Thursday that it’s too dangerous to bring 13 people out through the cave’s entrance, suggesting finding or making a rescue shaft might be a better option.

Celebrities? I suspect they need some publicity! What is wrong with the peoples? The first and only target is the to resue 13en, not the money-making monk, no one new tourist attraction and even no celebrities that looking for publicity! Who is the next point?

[fvw53]

It is so easy to solve problems if you are not involved yourself /  in the Dutch language there is a proverb used in the shipping world : " the best captains are those on shore"

[steve73]

Maybe they should get the monk(s) to make a prediction as to whether diving the kids out will be a success.... ;-))

[jaltsc]

“The water is still not going down."

 

One of the reasons for this, which has been reported in the foreign press, but not here, is that untrained Thai "experts" had flooded the cave by pumping water back into the cave and not away from it. Perhaps it is better not to worry about face, and let properly trained foreign professionals conduct the entire rescue operation. Lives depend on it.  

 

"...overzealous volunteers working on their own arrived on site and began pumping water into the ground, forcing it back into the partially flooded Tham Luang Nang Non cave."

Edited July 6, 2018 by jaltsc

[sanemax]

12 minutes ago, jaltsc said:

“The water is still not going down."

 

One of the reasons for this, which has been reported in the foreign press, but not here, is that untrained Thai "experts" had flooded the cave by pumping water back into the cave and not away from it. Perhaps it is better not to worry about face, and let properly trained foreign professionals conduct the entire rescue operation. Lives depend on it.  

The Thai media did report it , but they stated that there was just some water seeping back into the cave , rather  than being pumped

[Chrisdoc]

Why rush? Just wait it out. Better then risk lives.

Have been only following a little but am trying to work out whether they can go higher if it rains. If the water level rises are they really in trouble or can they just move higher. If it is the first case then can understand about getting them out quick.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[greenchair]

Laugh all you want. But if they can't drill them out then some kind of pully system is the best options. Those boys swimming and trekking out of there is a monumental task. Sometimes all you need is something simple. 

One guy suggested a skateboard type devise that the child could lay and simpley pull them out one by one. 

Another and myself suggested an inflatable tunnel. Time is running out though. The clouds are rolling. 

[chrisinth]

The biggest problem I see, as a complete novice I may add, is the risk of waiting too long and I suspect this is foremost in the minds of those in charge.

 

The fact that everyone has been warned about the expected weather coming this weekend, and how the entire event originated with flash flooding from similar weather fronts, it must be a terrifying choice for the command and control to make. I fully understand the fact that the health and ability of the kids should rank above all else, and final decisions left with the medical and SEAL teams, but IMO there should be a veto clause open to the experts.

 

Even though water courses have been diverted, extensive pumping operations are underway, I can't get it out of my mind that on the 23rd June the cave system went from dry to impassable so rapidly due to the massive water ingress causing the flash flood conditions.

 

The other factor to this of course is thought for the personnel working in the cave system, point of note the forward operating base that has been established. If flash flooding does reoccur, will this have to be evacuated? Will the stores amassed there be secure and not become additional hazards? I would imagine one of the last things rescuers would need is a couple of hundred air tanks being propelled through or clogging up narrow passages.

 

I know the above sounds very pessimistic, but I am in fact very optimistic as long as common sense prevails and the pros & cons are evaluated properly by the experts they have on hand, I have been this way from the start. What they don't need are self invited, self proclaimed experts propped by their acclaimed celebrity status influencing potential life altering decisions at this (or any) stage of the operation. Reading the report in the link in the OP, they are coming out with information that I haven't seen before, such as SEALs 'diving' (remaining submerged) for up to 5 hours transiting from the entrance to the boy's location. I don't think this is a translation issue...............

 

For clarity to that post, it contains no advice, only my thoughts at the minute....................

[Media1]

4 hours ago, Xaos said:

Why rush? Just wait it out. Better then risk lives.

The water may fill the entire cave system. 

[tropo]

5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

They should have at least a back up plan, the long dive to get them out, should be plan 2 IMO

They do have a backup plan. Move them to a higher spot and wait until the end of the monsoon period.

 

There are only 3 options:

 

1. Diving them out

2. Drilling them out

3. Waiting

 

 

[TonyClifton]

Why does it have to be one plan or the other?  Drill if it is safe to drill.  Plan on other avenues of escape as well.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, TonyClifton said:

Why does it have to be one plan or the other?  Drill if it is safe to drill.  Plan on other avenues of escape as well.

I think they are still working on drilling and finding other access points but its going to take a long time, taking them out by diving is  now considered as its a now nor never kinda thing as they fear rising water. Just imagine if the water rises they can't supply the boys anymore. The drilling what I have heard could take long and is also not safe.

 

I am sure that those in charge are looking at all options and they all have risks.

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, tropo said:

They do have a backup plan. Move them to a higher spot and wait until the end of the monsoon period.

 

There are only 3 options:

 

1. Diving them out

2. Drilling them out

3. Waiting

 

 

What about another dry passageway. I remember a local who is familiar with the cave talk about a way out back of the mountain ridge. At that time he speculated that the boys and coach may not be at Pattaya Beach and could have keep walking to this side of the cave. May be they can explore that and use echo sounding device to locate clear path. 

[tropo]

3 hours ago, chrisinth said:

Even though water courses have been diverted, extensive pumping operations are underway, I can't get it out of my mind that on the 23rd June the cave system went from dry to impassable so rapidly due to the massive water ingress causing the flash flood conditions.

As a heavy downpour could start at any time, even during the long evacuation process, if they decide to dive them out, get that amazing monk to watch the weather and predict if they have a dry 10-hour window of opportunity. If rain is on its way, get him to stop it with his magic chanting. Maybe he can delay the monsoon season by a month or two.

Edited July 6, 2018 by tropo

[tropo]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

What about another dry passageway. I remember a local who is familiar with the cave talk about a way out back of the mountain ridge. At that time he speculated that the boys and coach may not be at Pattaya Beach and could have keep walking to this side of the cave. May be they can explore that and use echo sounding device to locate clear path. 

I'm sure they are conducting ongoing cave exploration as best they can however that's a dangerous task considering heavy rain could come at any time and flood tunnels.

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, tropo said:

I'm sure they are conducting ongoing cave exploration as best they can however that's a dangerous task considering heavy rain could come at any time and flood tunnels.

True. In any case, they should explore all options. They have the resources and international expertise are ready to help. Sound crazy but I keep have this thought in my mind whether using smoke to detect openings. Never mind, just an off the cuff thought. 

[TonyClifton]

No one is addressing oxygen.  If the caves are filled on both sides of this high chamber, where is the air coming from?

[Sheryl]

5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

They should have at least a back up plan, the long dive to get them out, should be plan 2 IMO

They have multiple plans which are continually being updated. It is a complex and constantly evolving situation.

 

And none of the extraction options are without significant risk.

 

The drilling option is not even possible at this stage though efforts are ongoing.

 

Contrary to what these self-proclaimed "celebreties" said, water levels have significantly dropped.  Indeed, the pumping was absolutely instrumental in ennabling divers ti get through and find the boys in the first place, they could not do so at first until water levels came down. But not enough to avoid the need for diving many segments, and the expected heavy rains may well put things back where they were before all this pumping started.

[tropo]

10 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

They have multiple plans which are continually being updated. It is a complex and constantly evolving situation.

 

And none of the extraction options are without significant risk.

 

The drilling option is not even possible at this stage though efforts are ongoing.

 

Contrary to what these self-proclaimed "celebreties" said, water levels have significantly dropped.  Indeed, the pumping was absolutely instrumental in ennabling divers ti get through and find the boys in the first place, they could not do so at first until water levels came down. But not enough to avoid the need for diving many segments, and the expected heavy rains may well put things back where they were before all this pumping started.

And then some. Heavy rains could make it far worse than it was on June 23 before pumping commenced.

 

They have to prepare for the 4 months wait option now, while they still have the chance.

[Artisi]

1 hour ago, Media1 said:

The water may fill the entire cave system. 

That can be measured.

The cave level will only rise to the flood level external to the cave, however, does anyone known what that is? 

[Artisi]

8 minutes ago, tropo said:

And then some. Heavy rains could make it far worse than it was on June 23 before pumping commenced.

 

They have to prepare for the 4 months wait option now, while they still have the chance.

correct, all out effort put into an extended stay - not a pleasant thought for those involved - but could well be the best of the poor options available.

[TonyClifton]

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

correct, all out effort put into an extended stay - not a pleasant thought for those involved - but could well be the best of the poor options available.

Better than the alternative, which is suffocating in a tunnel filled with water.

[tropo]

30 minutes ago, Artisi said:

correct, all out effort put into an extended stay - not a pleasant thought for those involved - but could well be the best of the poor options available.

The wait option is their insurance policy. I hope they're giving them plenty of vitamin D.

[MaxLee]

4 hours ago, chrisinth said:

The biggest problem I see, as a complete novice I may add, is the risk of waiting too long and I suspect this is foremost in the minds of those in charge.

 

The fact that everyone has been warned about the expected weather coming this weekend, and how the entire event originated with flash flooding from similar weather fronts, it must be a terrifying choice for the command and control to make. I fully understand the fact that the health and ability of the kids should rank above all else, and final decisions left with the medical and SEAL teams, but IMO there should be a veto clause open to the experts.

 

Even though water courses have been diverted, extensive pumping operations are underway, I can't get it out of my mind that on the 23rd June the cave system went from dry to impassable so rapidly due to the massive water ingress causing the flash flood conditions.

 

The other factor to this of course is thought for the personnel working in the cave system, point of note the forward operating base that has been established. If flash flooding does reoccur, will this have to be evacuated? Will the stores amassed there be secure and not become additional hazards? I would imagine one of the last things rescuers would need is a couple of hundred air tanks being propelled through or clogging up narrow passages.

 

I know the above sounds very pessimistic, but I am in fact very optimistic as long as common sense prevails and the pros & cons are evaluated properly by the experts they have on hand, I have been this way from the start. What they don't need are self invited, self proclaimed experts propped by their acclaimed celebrity status influencing potential life altering decisions at this (or any) stage of the operation. Reading the report in the link in the OP, they are coming out with information that I haven't seen before, such as SEALs 'diving' (remaining submerged) for up to 5 hours transiting from the entrance to the boy's location. I don't think this is a translation issue...............

 

For clarity to that post, it contains no advice, only my thoughts at the minute....................

 

Nobody in power and high status wants to lose face, and that's EXACTLY the problem here, that's why the authorities play the waiting game....