Thai 20-year strategy 'at risk of being outdated'

By KAS CHANWANPEN, 
SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE

THE NATION

 

File Photo

 

THAILAND’S 20-year strategy will become obsolete once the US implements its new Indo-Pacific strategy and expands its role across the two oceans, notably on security matters, two prominent Thai scholars on security and military affairs said.

 

The national strategy on security approved by the National Legislative Assembly last month was unclear about how to deal with the new US strategy, said Chulalongkorn University security expert Surachart Bamrungsuk.

 

While US President Donald Trump’s strategy expands US power to cover the two oceans from Australia to India and perhaps east of Africa, the Thai strategy merely says the country would balance and engage all countries, notably the superpowers.

 

The junta’s strategy looks to the US as the main actor and attaches importance to BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – while also dealing from a security standpoint with the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organisation, he said. “We all known the US is there and security is important, but BRICS and IS are not relevant anymore,” he said.

 

Thailand needs to adjust its grand strategy to cope with new changes in global geopolitics, otherwise the country could lose its position in the international community, he said.

 

“Only an elected government with full mandate from the people can do it. The military government is not flexible enough to adjust its strategy and policy,” Surachart told The Nation. While Trump has mapped out his government’s strategy to counter China, Thai junta chief Prayut Chan-o-cha has repeatedly made it clear that the military government would go along with China, he said.

 

The position on leaning towards China is not a strategy, but more a reaction to the criticism by the Barack Obama administration after Prayut’s coup in 2014.

 

Thailand and the US have moved closer during Trump’s tenure. Prayut was welcomed to the White House in Washington and military-to-military ties have edged closer.

 

“I understand that Washington might be worried about the close ties between Thailand and China,” Surachart said. “It seems Thailand is now a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” The military government is now the link between Thailand’s geography and China’s strategy, he said. “We have seen a strong push to build the Kra Isthmus Canal to complete China’s strategy of linking the Pacific and Indian oceans.”

 

Surachart said Washington needs to readjust its policy to push Thailand back to full democracy. “Of course, military-to-military engagement is necessary, and joint military exercises – bilateral or multilateral such as the Cobra Gold – should continue. But giving a red-carpet welcome to the leader of a military government is the wrong signal,” he said.

 

Piyaphob Mahamad, a military affairs expert from Rajabhat Rajanagarindra University, said Thailand was continuing to do a great job in nurturing relations with the US despite the increasing influence of China in both the country and the region.

 

As full military exercises have resumed, high-ranking military officers from the US, in particular Joseph Dunford, have visited the country and chaired meetings of the chiefs of staff, he said. Dunford insisted that relations remained strong, as they have been since after World War II, said Piyaphob.

 

While Thailand – as a smaller country – seems to benefit from the military exercises, Piyaphob pointed out that there were many things in it for the US, too. Thailand’s varied terrain is great for war drills and is largely unmatched by other countries.

 

The Thai Army, however, has looked east in recent years, purchasing more weapons from China as it was cost effective. This has led to speculation about possible bigger and more frequent military exercises with China as well.

 

But Piyaphob said they could not match the multilateral US military exercises led by the US, while drills with China drills were significantly smaller and bilateral.

 

There could be increased procurement of Chinese hardware, he said, but opaque deals would make it hard to know how much had been spent from the Thai defence budget.

 

“Unlike procurement from the US, we would never know the real price of Chinese hardware,” he said. “More importantly, if we purchase more Chinese equipment till it dominates the weapon systems, I think the Thai military would need to change its defence doctrine to match the weapon systems being used,” he said.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30350659

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-07-24

Thai Strategy must take note of what the International Globalist Establishment wants:The Establishment has deemed China the manufacturer to the world. Trump is opposing that. They want Trump out. Until it is clear who wins this battle, perhaps Thailand should take a wait and see position.

    I think that the American people are behind Trump and that might be sufficient for him to win in the end. However, the Establishment and its puppets are in full control of much of the US Government. If they succeed, Civil War in the US is likely. If the people succeed, then full steam ahead for the entire world!

 

1 hour ago, liberty9133 said:

Thai Strategy must take note of what the International Globalist Establishment wants:The Establishment has deemed China the manufacturer to the world. Trump is opposing that. They want Trump out. Until it is clear who wins this battle, perhaps Thailand should take a wait and see position.

    I think that the American people are behind Trump and that might be sufficient for him to win in the end. However, the Establishment and its puppets are in full control of much of the US Government. If they succeed, Civil War in the US is likely. If the people succeed, then full steam ahead for the entire world!

 

you make it sound like the junta are inocent and its all the big bad US States fault

 

Revolution first on this Land, Thank you

Is it just the camera angle/depth, or is this guy 7 feet tall?

Thats alright. With all of their new subs, tanks and whatever else they are buying, they will be able to sort anyone out. 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“Unlike procurement from the US, we would never know the real price of Chinese hardware,” he said. “More importantly, if we purchase more Chinese equipment till it dominates the weapon systems, I think the Thai military would need to change its defence doctrine to match the weapon systems being used,” he said.

To find out the cost of something, you open it up and look inside.  We know what steel costs in China as well as a tantalum capacitor.  You then combine that with the approximate costs of engineering and testing.   If you know the exact cost of the US product, you then have some basis for your approximations. 

 

Defense doctrine ?  The wrangling of those who wish to engage in debate and universal suffrage ?  Looking to violate a UN resolution to appropriate a Hindu Temple at the border ?  That would be bad for business.  Said border has a few "Thai" casinos. 

 

Mind numbing.  

" But Piyaphob said they could not match the multilateral US military exercises led by the US, while drills with China were significantly smaller..."

 

as an American a lot of woman in Thailand have told me the same thing.

1 hour ago, DoctorG said:

Is it just the camera angle/depth, or is this guy 7 feet tall?

He’s a tall man indeed, but not seven feet...the four star general pictured was the most recent US Army Chief of Staff, GEN Ray Odierno, who was visiting Thailand when the photo was taken.  The current Chief is GEN Mark Milley.  

1 hour ago, DoctorG said:

Is it just the camera angle/depth, or is this guy 7 feet tall?

This photo is somewhat distorted, but in the original, which was in BK Post, the American is very damn tall.  Gen P's head barely came to the American's shoulder when they were standing close together.  I think it's a picture Gen P doesn't really like. lol

 

Thailand always at least 20 years behind every other country in many areas!


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Show me a Thai government that has lasted 20 years, and then we can talk about 20 year strategies...

Thai 'strategy at risk of being outdated'.

 

My Goodness: Thailand is about 300 years outdated! In fact, it currently makes mediaeval times look positively progressive and alluring!

2 hours ago, DoctorG said:

Is it just the camera angle/depth, or is this guy 7 feet tall?

No. He's 6'5"

Played basketball in West Point.

http://goarmywestpoint.com/news/2015/9/15/MBB_0915152406.aspx?path=mbball

Average height for an American man is 5'10"; Thailand 5'6"

http://www.wecare4eyes.com/averageemployeeheights.htm

5 hours ago, webfact said:

THAILAND’S 20-year strategy will become obsolete

Prayut's 20-year plan is just a formal 20-year extension of the military's existence as an extra-constitutional/extrajudicial independent power for almost the last 80 years.

Prayut's 20-year plan is in essence part of a 100-year plan that recycles loyalist control over the sovereignty of the Thai people. What remains is whether the Thai people will now have the fortitude to break that cycle or continue to embrace it.

8 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

What remains is whether the Thai people will now have the fortitude to break that cycle or continue to embrace it.

A rhetorical question, most certainly but also confusing with the words Thai and fortitude in the same sentence...

1 hour ago, Just1Voice said:

This photo is somewhat distorted, but in the original, which was in BK Post, the American is very damn tall.  Gen P's head barely came to the American's shoulder when they were standing close together.  I think it's a picture Gen P doesn't really like. lol

 

Very funny photo. Lots of symbolism of various kinds ...

I doubt that the brown envelope strategy will ever be outraged here.....

A good twenty year plan is a revolving, plan requiring minor adjustments as it goes along and major adjustments every five year.  Thailand needs to play the middle.  It can be the food basket of China and the only stable secure base for the U.S. in Southeast Asia.  Don't forget Japan, as it provides a good base for manufacturing with trained low cost workers in areas that Japan doesn't have the manpower to take care of.

The only strategy these dinasour have is to stay no matter how bad they are. The money there milking is unspeakable. They give corruption a new meaning.

6 hours ago, webfact said:

THAILAND’S 20-year strategy will become obsolete once the US implements its new Indo-Pacific strategy and expands its role across the two oceans, notably on security matters, two prominent Thai scholars on security and military affairs said.

That's making the assumption that the US Indo-Pac strategy will be more effective than China's control of the South China Sea couple their OBOR strategy.  This is now a rapidly evolving multipolar world.  But Thailand, being Thailand, will probably do what it has always done best - play the middle.

Thailand has many historical links to China... indeed it has many residents of Chinese descent, so of course it favours what they know rather than take a chance with Trump and USA

however the new regime in China seeks to almost invade & take over the countries it seeks to trade with..

The so called "belt & road" strategy is just another way to get Chinese influence into another sovereignty.

Building roads, bridges, train lines and infrastructure all cost a huge amount of money...you think China is giving it away all in the name of "free trade" ?

The countries of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos & eventually Thailand will find out that one day it will be pay-back-time

no such thing as free!

Building road & rail links to it's many Chinese built factories all run by cheap local labour, but run by the masses of Chinese who will be moving in & taking over!

When China has enough leverage in each country it will start to control trade/finance & eventually the economy of each region... then it will have the political power to do as it wants...
China is not going to fight with Trump over auto's, fridges & soy beans..

China is taking over Asia with trade & then look out Europe/USA.

The red army didn't ever go away.. it changed it's colours & got very smart!!

5 hours ago, liberty9133 said:

Thai Strategy must take note of what the International Globalist Establishment wants:The Establishment has deemed China the manufacturer to the world. Trump is opposing that. They want Trump out. Until it is clear who wins this battle, perhaps Thailand should take a wait and see position.

    I think that the American people are behind Trump and that might be sufficient for him to win in the end. However, the Establishment and its puppets are in full control of much of the US Government. If they succeed, Civil War in the US is likely. If the people succeed, then full steam ahead for the entire world!

 

HRC won the popular vote by 3 million so the "people" are definitively against the Swamp King currently infesting the WH. Civil war? A few potbellied NRA members won't be much of a challenge for the authorities and good riddance.

 

Back on topic:

Any 20 year strategy implemented by a military junta can and should be discarded as soon as free elections have been held. There will be opposition from the junta stacked senate but the new elected and legal government should play hardball and threaten to resign if blocked by the junta puppets in the senate.

With a fresh mandate from the electorate the old guard will hopefully back off (for now).

Looks like he's got more medals than a Thai general but this ones beats em all.

7 hours ago, liberty9133 said:

Civil War in the US is likely

Really!!??

1 hour ago, Becker said:

There will be opposition from the junta stacked senate but the new elected and legal government should play hardball and threaten to resign if blocked by the junta puppets in the senate.

Do you think the "junta puppets" would be concerned by a threat of resignation? NO!

In the rapidly shifting world of global geopolitics it is inconceivable that any 20 year strategic plan would remain meaningful for very long, unless there is unlimited wiggle room to modify it.  Here we have a 20 year plan put together by people who have a poor track record of planning things a few weeks in advance domestically and a very limited understanding of global political economy.  Look what happened with the decree on the Working of Aliens that caused a massive exodus of migrant labour bring Thai businesses to a standstill, requiring a second decree to drastically amend it. 

 

In addition, the planners have failed to use their unlimited power to do anything about corruption, so it is hard to imagine that elected governments with limited powers and hogtied by this plan and the constitution will be able to uproot corruption which is the single greatest evil in Thailand that cripples social, political and economic development.

1 hour ago, lvr181 said:

Do you think the "junta puppets" would be concerned by a threat of resignation? NO!

If the future legally elected government got a very clear mandate by the electorate I don't think they will have a choice.

5 minutes ago, Becker said:

If the future legally elected government got a very clear mandate by the electorate I don't think they will have a choice.

Such mandate presents no threat to the military.

The junta drafted constitution includes wider scope for extended military oversight and prospective intervention in democratic political affairs. It reserves discretionary authority for the military to intervene in elected politics, effectively setting a lever that the military authorities may at their discretion pull at any point in the tenure of an elected government – tantamount to a constitutionally authorized coup.

https://asiafoundation.org/2016/05/18/two-years-thailands-coup-draft-constitution-stirs-controversy/

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai 20-year strategy 'at risk of being outdated'

Thailand is already outdated.

6 hours ago, DoctorG said:

Is it just the camera angle/depth, or is this guy 7 feet tall?

Looks like the height of a lamp-post to me. Obviously Illuminati.