UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[nontabury]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

Yes but they will end up with the same sort of frustrations as the retired people here, paperwork, visas and always having to prove their income. Unless the can afford private health care they will have to return to the UK and be a burden on the NHS in case of major illness.

Is that how it was,before we got sucked into the EEC?

[vogie]

12 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Hard Brexiteer sings "Je Ne Regrette Rien". Panto season starts early.

Soft head waffles again.

[nontabury]

2 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

This is the precursor to a move towards a people's vote. If May's plan gets through then Brexit is safe and sound, but if it gets rejected I believe that people will vote against Brexit, and a document like this will help to seal the deal. 

You could be right, another attempt to expung the democratic will of the people. 

 A document produced by whom exactly?

I suspect colleagues of Ollie Robbins, if not himself.

Edited November 20, 2018 by nontabury

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

It's been her plan all along....get a deal so bad that she'll be forced "reluctantly" to hold another "peoples vote" with a ballot that says "accept her deal" or "call it off" Her hope of course being that we see the error of our ways and vote to stay in.

 

 

I don't believe any of that. The problem is that people had unrealistic expectations about what any UK government could deliver in negotiations with the EU. Remainers warned that the deal would be inferior, and here we are. To lose the vote would be devastating for May, she genuinely wants to get her deal through. 

 

[talahtnut]

12 minutes ago, vogie said:

Soft head waffles again.

Playing widow Twanky again? Or the arse end of the donky.

[AlexRich]

28 minutes ago, nontabury said:

I did watch a couple of Interveiws with University students, who were adamant that should we exit the E.u. that would automatically curtail their ability to go on holiday to Europe.

 

Likewise we’ve had all these scare stories, that planes would not be able to fly between The U.K. and Europe.

 Well not so according to the Swedish born  CEO of Easyjet. Who within the last 30mins has come out and stated on BBC news. That he is 100% that eventually will never occur.

 

Sure, the vox pops that I watched featured a wide selection of dim wits from across the UK, most of whom voted leave ... 

 

The planes thing was never likely to happen ... but the right to settle or retire is the more serious issue, and that will be severely curtailed for many, other than the wealthy.

 

 

 

 

[nontabury]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

No I get my French health care because I have worked in France and contributed to the French system. It's the retirees who have never worked here the UK government  pays for.

Same for any French retirees who move to the UK - the French gov will pay their healthcare.  

Correct, however the French government pay very little towards the U.K treatment of French citizens. Though to be fair this is’t because of the E.u.

It’s down to the inability of the NHS Bureaucrats  to put into place a system, where the E.u countries are presented with the bill.

[AlexRich]

25 minutes ago, nontabury said:

You could be right, another attempt to expung the democratic will of the people. 

 A document produced by whom exactly?

I suspect colleagues of Ollie Robbins, if not himself.

 

The problem is that to be frank most people in the UK are prepared to go along with Brexit as long as sensible steps are taken to protect businesses and jobs, i.e. as long as you don't wreck the economy with a "no deal" scenario. If May's deal goes through I don't think you'll get too much blowback from remainers. You have Brexit, it's there in front of you, take it.

 

But for the sake of ideological purity it looks like the ERG are hell bent on a "no deal" ... and in my view that is what will lead to a second referendum. And faced with "no deal" people will kill Brexit dead. The analysis will have nothing to do with Robbins, it will hail from the financial guys, or independents. And it won't be pretty. And that is why Chucka Umma has pressed for it.

 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by AlexRich

[welovesundaysatspace]

25 minutes ago, nontabury said:

You could be right, another attempt to expung the democratic will of the people. 

 A document produced by whom exactly?

I suspect colleagues of Ollie Robbins, if not himself.

Interesting, when people don’t vote your way it’s “to expunge the democratic will”. Says a lot about Brexiteers’ view on democracy (but who would be surprised). 

[Stupooey]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

90%, your joshing right.....

 

I agree it looks high, but I googled 'Brexit Referendum turnout by age' and this is the figure that came up.

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

58 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

No Brains opining on No Brainers.

Hahaha! Pot, kettle!! 

 

You know I've never dreaded seeing Bill Murray's mug before, quite the opposite usually. Cheers for that. ????

Edited November 20, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

You really don't get it do you. I can see now why you are not cantab

Oh do pipe down and have another glass of yourself. I've answered this very pompous question of yours repeatedly. You're now really boring me and just about everyone else, it would seem. ????

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

What nonsense

Explain why. What part of it is nonsense exactly - give me hard facts and astute reasoning, if you can.

 

What I have said is factual, the underlying issue here is all about - self interest vs national interest and future sovereignty. Simple as that.

 

From everything you've espoused I'd say you're all about the former, like most Remoaners it seems. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[dunroaming]

11 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

The problem is that to be frank most people in the UK are prepared to go along with Brexit as long as sensible steps are taken to protect businesses and jobs, i.e. as long as you don't wreck the economy with a "no deal" scenario. If May's deal goes through I don't think you'll get too much blowback from remainers. You have Brexit, it's there in front of you, take it.

I think you are right.  People have been worn down by the vitriol and constant lies and will accept a bum deal just to get it over with.  Joe public don't know what to believe and have no faith in any of the politicians ever doing what is right for the country.

[My Thai Life]

22 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Anyway I think we all agree NO deal is disaster, the Deal is worse than what we already have ergo we remain.

Eh? The goal of Brexit is to get out of the EU, not to get a better deal with the EU.

 

The "better deal" part comes from an independent world-wide trade policy, of which the EU would be a part, a diminishing part, as it has been for the last decade or two.

 

Most of the world trades under WTO rules, there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about trading under WTO rules.

 

The "no deal" scenario has been hyped up by the CBI and other reactionaries, but it's just a bump in the road to an independent trade policy. The alternative is a few more years of limbo.

 

People do get very confused about exchange rates - a weak pound is good for exports.

 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by My Thai Life

[welovesundaysatspace]

3 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

 

The "better deal" part comes from an independent world-wide trade policy, of which the EU would be a part, a dimishing part, as it has been for the last decade or two.

Does that “better deal” come from the same person who will invent the magic border technology for Ireland, who calculate the weekly NHS savings and who negotiates the easiest deals in history? 

 

3 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

 

The "no deal" scenario has been hyped up by the CBI and other reactionaries, but it's just a bump in the road to an independent trade policy.

It’s been “hyped up” by literally everyone. Instead we believe those people who couldn’t even calculate the weekly savings for the NHS correctly? Come on. 

 

[My Thai Life]

14 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

t’s been “hyped up” by literally everyone. Instead we believe those people who couldn’t even calculate the weekly savings for the NHS correctly? Come on. 

Hyped up by literally everyone? This just shows how narrow your reading is.

 

14 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Does that “better deal” come from the same person who will invent the magic border technology for Ireland, who calculate the weekly NHS savings and who negotiates the easiest deals in history?

It doesn't come from a person, it comes from self-determination - having control of one's own trade policy.

 

I've said this many times before, but it looks like I'll have to say it again. The WTO does not require a hard border between NI and Ireland. May is happy to play along with the backstop fallacy because she is a remainer who wants to stay in the CU.

Edited November 20, 2018 by My Thai Life

[AlexRich]

17 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Eh? The goal of Brexit is to get out of the EU, not to get a better deal with the EU.

 

The "better deal" part comes from an independent world-wide trade policy, of which the EU would be a part, a dimishing part, as it has been for the last decade or two.

 

Most of the world trades under WTO rules, there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about trading under WTO rules.

 

The "no deal" scenario has been hyped up by the CBI and other reactionaries, but it's just a bump in the road to an independent trade policy. The alternative is a few more years of limbo.

 

People do get very confused about exchange rates - a weak pound is good for exports.

 

 

 

 

No deal would be a calamity for many businesses in the UK, the car and steel industries come to mind. And WTO is a club, and the members will not be giving the UK the same deal as it has currently as a member of the EU, countries like the US and New Zealand are seeing to that. Your bump in the road is some poor bugger's livelihood, not to mention some guys business that he's built up through many years. Despite a lower GBP our export performance has been decidedly lacklustre, and in no way compensates you for what you lose elsewhere. The "no deal" brexiteers either don't care about their fellow Brits or haven't worked out yet that they will be impacted. I bet quite a few Nissan workers voted Leave ... in a "no deal" scenario that decision will catch up with them. As for the great new trade deals, they will take a long time to set up and will come with many downsides. There are 11,000 members of the Northern Irish Farmers Union, they indicated last week that a US deal would destroy their industry. With "no deal" it's a case of beware of what you wish for. 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

5 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Hyped up by literally everyone? This just shows how narrow your reading is.

Yes, literally everyone, except the hardcore Brexiteers, have realized by now that "no deal" is pretty bad. Do a Google search and then count the opinions.

 

5 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

It doesn't come from a person, it comes self-determination - having control of one's own trade policy.

Are you writing those "get rich quick" books? They also tell people you just need to believe in it.

 

5 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I've said this many times before, but it looks like I'll have to say it again. The WTO does not require a hard border between NI and Ireland.

Does the WTO require a border between the USA and Mexico, or between Greece and Turkey?

[vinny41]

4 hours ago, kwilco said:

Expat always overvalued their worth to a country. In future retirees will need to show proof of income, property ownership will come into doubt and of course the big one I'd they'll need pay for their own health care.

Any work will be taken.into account and they will need to register with the local authorities. They will be immigrants like people from anywhere outside the EU

All Eu nationals are required to register with the local authorities. of the EU country they reside in if they intend to stay longer than 90 days

for example The ‘Anmeldung’

If you are going to work or study in Germany or if you will be living there for more than 3 months, you need to get registered as a resident. The registration (Anmeldung) process can be complicated, so it is best to prepare beforehand.

https://www.justlanded.com/english/Germany/Germany-Guide/Visas-Permits/Residence-registration-in-Germany

 

 

 

[talahtnut]

4 hours ago, Stupooey said:

Difficult for the over-65's to come out in even more force; after all, turnout in that age group was 90% in 2016. Bearing in mind that, according to Alzheimer's UK, over 7% of over-65's suffer from dementia, the turnout was effectively 97%. Unless, of course.......

 

Disclaimer: before anyone applies 'Brexit Logic' to this post, I am not saying, nor even implying, that all Leave voters were or are demented.

If you were in a dangerous situation, would you take the advice of an old man, or a young man fresh out

of uni with a degree in basket weaving or

theoretical quantum physics?

By the way, do you have any stats on demented youngsters?

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by talahtnut
justify

[welovesundaysatspace]

6 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

All Eu nationals are required to register with the local authorities. of the EU country they reside in if they intend to stay longer than 90 days

for example The ‘Anmeldung’

If you are going to work or study in Germany or if you will be living there for more than 3 months, you need to get registered as a resident. The registration (Anmeldung) process can be complicated, so it is best to prepare beforehand.

https://www.justlanded.com/english/Germany/Germany-Guide/Visas-Permits/Residence-registration-in-Germany

It's the opposite of "complicated". You make an appointment online, go there, done.

[vinny41]

4 hours ago, tebee said:

Yes but they will end up with the same sort of frustrations as the retired people here, paperwork, visas and always having to prove their income. Unless the can afford private health care they will have to return to the UK and be a burden on the NHS in case of major illness.

The UK has a residency based healthcare system. This means provision of NHS treatment is based on being ‘ordinarily resident’ in the UK, not on your nationality, payment of UK taxes or national insurance contributions, owning a property, being registered with a GP or having an NHS number. A British citizen who resumes settled residence in the UK is immediately entitled to free NHS care. If a British citizen resides only overseas and is visiting the UK, they may be charged for hospital treatment unless they have a registered S1, described below, in another EEA country

[My Thai Life]

57 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

No deal would be a calamity for many businesses in the UK, the car and steel industries come to mind.

I've answered the points you've raised before, usually more than once. But as you seem to be new to this thread, I'll repeat some of what I've already posted.

 

Re calamity and no deal. It all depends on the specific tariff and trade policy. The UK would be free to set tariffs and trade policy for specific sectors to maintain the status quo if it chose to. This would be extremely simple and does not require negotiation with the EU, and would preserve frictionless imports in those sectors. 

 

The car industry has been estimated to be around 1% of GDP, which puts any adverse impact on the car industry into perspective in terms of potential impact on GDP - but there doesn't need to be an adverse effect, as I've mentioned above.

 

Re your point about people being put out of work. This happens with all changes to industrial and trade policies, not just Brexit. But it doesn't need to happen in the car industry for the reasons I've mentioned above.

 

Your comment about some guy who's spent years building up his business getting destroyed by a no deal doesn't really work because the overwhelming majority of SMEs don't trade with the EU at all.

 

Re farming. I'll repeat the point that it would make sense to redirect some of the massive subsidies we currently pay to EU farmers to UK farmers. (The CAP consumes 40% of the EU budget for 2% of GDP, while damaging the environment and increasing cruelty to livestock.)

 

Re your assertion about the UK's lacklustre export performance. Well here's the truth from www.gov.uk Jun 29, 2018.

 

"UK exports at record high. Exports of UK goods and services rose to a record high of £620.2 billion in the year to March 2018 according to new trade figures released today. Exports grew faster to Canada (up 12.7%), India (31.8%) and China (15.3%) than to the EU (10%)".

 

Obviously you are ideologically motivated. Nothing wrong with that in itself, but it's better to stick to facts and reasoned argument. Have a good evening.

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by My Thai Life

[billd766]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

To be honest Bill the so called "EU wannabe military force" is nothing more than anti EU propaganda, unless of course you have a source to a definitive proposal to create a separate EU military force. It is not uncommon for politicians to get their words the wrong way round and send everybody off at a tangent.

 

“The path we have taken leads step by step to an ‘army of Europeans’. [That means] military forces that remain national responsibilities, but that are closely linked, uniformly equipped, and trained and ready for joint operations,” Ursula von der Leyen, the German defence minister, wrote in an opinion piece for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung at the weekend. 

Ms von der Leyen and other EU politicians have also stressed that the push for better-funded and better-aligned European militaries is intended to bolster Nato, not weaken it. Nato’s primacy in European collective defence is even clearer than before, as the western alliance has edged back from deployments elsewhere in the world to focus more on dealing with Russia. 
https://www.ft.com/content/272daf9a-ec49-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0

Here are 6 links for you. I didn't bother to put the links from Trump up, but they are out if you want to look.

 

Well the Dutch don't think so.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2018/1116/1011481-eu-army/

 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/11/17/580255/Mark-Rutte-European-army-NATO-Emmanuel-Macron-Angela-Merkel

 

The Germans and the French want it.

 

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2018/1116/1011481-eu-army/

 

Even Juncker wants it.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-31874418/european-union-army-proposal-from-jean-claude-juncker

 

This link is 2 years old.

 

https://www.cer.eu/insights/eu-army-four-reasons-it-will-not-happen

 

[bristolboy]

7 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

 

 

Re calamity and no deal. It all depends on the specific tariff and trade policy. The UK would be free to set tariffs and trade policy for specific sectors to maintain the status quo if it chose to. This would be extremely simple and does not require negotiation with the EU, and would preserve frictionless imports in those sectors. 

 

 

 

 

What about exports? Most likely, they're not going to be frictionless.

Also, whatever tariff rules apply to EU imports also have to applied to the imports from virtually all other nations.

[billd766]

11 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I've answered the points you've raised before, usually more than once. But as you seem to be new to this thread, I'll repeat some of what I've already posted.

 

Re calamity and no deal. It all depends on the specific tariff and trade policy. The UK would be free to set tariffs and trade policy for specific sectors to maintain the status quo if it chose to. This would be extremely simple and does not require negotiation with the EU, and would preserve frictionless imports in those sectors. 

 

The car industry has been estimated to be around 1% of GDP, which puts any adverse impact on the car industry into perspective in terms of potential impact on GDP - but there doesn't need to be an adverse effect, as I've mentioned above.

 

Re your point about people being put out of work. This happens with all changes to industrial and trade policies, not just Brexit. But it doesn't need to happen in the car industry for the reasons I've mentioned above.

 

Your comment about some guy who's spent years building up his business getting destroyed by a no deal doesn't really work because the overwhelming majority of SMEs don't trade with the EU at all.

 

Re farming. I'll repeat the point that it would make sense to redirect some of the massive subsidies we currently pay to EU farmers to UK farmers. (The CAP consumes 40% of the EU budget for 2% of GDP, while damaging the environment and increasing cruelty to livestock.)

 

Re your assertion about the UK's lacklustre export performance. Well here's the truth from www.gov.uk Jun 29, 2018.

 

"UK exports at record high. Exports of UK goods and services rose to a record high of £620.2 billion in the year to March 2018 according to new trade figures released today. Exports grew faster to Canada (up 12.7%), India (31.8%) and China (15.3%) than to the EU (10%)".

 

Obviously you are ideologically motivated. Nothing wrong with that in itself, but it's better to stick to facts and reasoned argument. Have a good evening.

 

Please don't confuse him with facts as he can't handle them especially positive ones about the UK.

[vinny41]

Brexit Britain's £1bn Investment Bonanza 

https://order-order.com/2018/11/20/brexit-britains-1bn-investment-bonanza/

[bomber]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

Eh? The goal of Brexit is to get out of the EU, not to get a better deal with the EU.

 

The "better deal" part comes from an independent world-wide trade policy, of which the EU would be a part, a diminishing part, as it has been for the last decade or two.

 

 

 

People do get very confused about exchange rates - a weak pound is good for exports.

 

 

 

if your trying to say the UKs trade with EU is diminishing you need help,yes china's strength might of slowed it but to say its diminishing is <deleted>,as for shit exchange rates helping exports since the pound lost 15%+ after brexit the trade deficit actually widened so that puts that theory to bed,maybe a loss of another 20-25% might help but imagine how many expats would be jumping from the top of VT 1+2 at 32bt/pound,quite a few me thinks.your basically saying the UK needs to start from scratch again,well you might get your wish when commrade corbyn first term is over.

[bomber]

14 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Brexit Britain's £1bn Investment Bonanza 

https://order-order.com/2018/11/20/brexit-britains-1bn-investment-bonanza/

i thought i was entering a porn site when i opened that link,then realised it was ajoke shop