What is a "safe" level in predicting exchange rates for combo retirement applictations?

[Jingthing]

11 minutes ago, orchidfan said:

I use the Embassy or Consulate method for income only application.

Just prior to my extension renewal I have the embassy endorse my "income" at whatever best exchange rate I choose...cover it with nice coloured stamps or "chops"...then I have this formally translated  into Thai with more nice coloured stamps.

My local IO accept this without question or checking. ....so far so good!

Now I'm confused as I will be new to doing income letters.

As an American, I have been under the impression that you state your income to the embassy in the home country currency, in that case U.S. dollars of course.

Then at the time of application, the officer does the math to see how much that is in baht at that later date.

Assuming that's correct, other nations allow you to have your income letter stated in baht at the time of the letter?

Really? 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, uksmdh said:

Oh yes the old imponderable scenario.  If I could predict exchange rates I would be a very rich man.  Lets re-phrase the question.  If I drive on the right hand side of the road towards oncoming traffic how far can I travel before I have a head on collision?  The answer to your question is flux as much as you can afford.

But that's kind of silly. People doing combo applications that could afford to always keep over 800K in a Thai bank account wouldn't even be bothering with combo applications. I theoretically could "afford" to do that indefinitely but it doesn't seem all that smart to park that much in a Thai bank with almost no interest when the risk of using the combo method is so minimal if you add a decent amount of buffer. 

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, a977 said:

Jomtien Immigration told me a couple of years ago to keep 300,000 in bank for seasoning period and I would be pretty safe, that's using the Aussie pension of $21,699.60 per annum (at current exchange kasikorn  23.32 =506034thb) I currently keep 400,000thb in account due to the a##e falling out of the dollar.

That's a lot of numbers.

What percentage of exchange rate decline does that cover you for?

[Jingthing]

15 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I would be thinking in terms of worst case scenario 30 baht to the USD, 23 baht to the AUD. Don't ask me about the GBP, I'm not a fortune teller.

30 to the USD is hardly worse case scenario historically. I remember 25. But if that happened again, what are the odds it would fall that much in a three month period? (Nobody knows of course.)

Edited September 3, 2018 by Jingthing

[orchidfan]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Now I'm confused as I will be new to doing income letters.

As an American, I have been under the impression that you state your income to the embassy in the home country currency, in that case U.S. dollars of course.

Then at the time of application, the officer does the math to see how much that is in baht at that later date.

Assuming that's correct, other nations allow you to have your income letter stated in baht at the time of the letter?

Really? 

Yes. That's what I do. Quote income in foreign currency and "approximate" baht equivalent. ..which embassy endorse. No checking or calculations done by IO.

Maybe I'm lucky and maybe it's just that office. As we all know they all have different rules and interpretations of the regs.

[Jingthing]

Just now, orchidfan said:

Yes. That's what I do. Quote income in foreign currency and "approximate" baht equivalent. ..which embassy endorse. No checking or calculations done by IO.

Maybe I'm lucky and maybe it's just that office. As we all know they all have different rules and interpretations of the regs.

Interesting, and I assume immigration accepts that as well. What immigration office? Others might be interested to hear that but I'm still assuming I will have no option but to state the income in USD to the U.S. embassy unless someone corrects me. 

[orchidfan]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Interesting, and I assume immigration accepts that as well. What immigration office? Others might be interested to hear that but I'm still assuming I will have no option but to state the income in USD to the U.S. embassy unless someone corrects me. 

I saw one German guys application  (copy of which was given to me by helpful IO) . His Embassy actually wrote a letter on the Embassy letterhead confirming his income in euros and a conversion to baht...on the rate of the day of letter writing.

Immigration thought it was perfectly adequate.

[Lacessit]

9 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

30 to the USD is hardly worse case scenario historically. I remember 25. But if that happened again, what are the odds it would fall that much in a three month period? (Nobody knows of course.)

I was not aware the USD had gone that low. Ah, for the days when the AUD was worth 32 baht.

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, orchidfan said:

I saw one German guys application  (copy of which was given to me by helpful IO) . His Embassy actually wrote a letter on the Embassy letterhead confirming his income in euros and a conversion to baht...on the rate of the day of letter writing.

Immigration thought it was perfectly adequate.

I find that pretty shocking. 

If Thai immigration really generally accepts the exchange rate (and does the calculation) based on the date of the letter, then the entire point of this thread is nil.

But I simply don't believe that is generally the case.

Another factor is that immigration generally accepts letters as old as SIX MONTHS old. 

Obviously the risk of a great change is greater in six months vs. three.

The same tactics would apply to applicants though as far as buffer. Look at the rate before three months out and top up plus buffer if needed at that time before the seasoning period starts.

[Firefan]

I would go with a 10% buffer based on history. Probably 20% if wanted to not worry. Cheers!

[Jingthing]

To add there is other stuff you can do to prevent a surprise. Say you buffer 10 percent and you notice your currency has declined 5 percent in the first month of the seasoning period. So then you could top up another 5 percent and restore your buffer. In a scenario like that you may want to check the rates daily.

Think of that like a margin call but you'd be calling yourself.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[1FinickyOne]

Actually, the information you want would all be in a graph of the baht vs dollar... you are always going to be running some risk with currency fluctuation, but pull up a chart - - take a long term look, 10 yrs 20 years, or more... make your own judgments on what you see... you are as likely to get a windfall as a catastrophe.. 

[Shiver]

Although I've never done this since I only qualify for retirement next year and had to pay the 5 year 'easy access' visa, if I were doing this I think 7% would be a reasonable buffer.  If you can afford 10% then better of course.

 

You then would still have 2 parachutes left - The border or the quasi-pay-for-it visa.  I'm not entirely sure of the legality of the latter as it may legitimately be "up to the discretion of the officer in charge" (though I know of many who have taken that road and never heard of a single issue - *not* advice, just observation).  The former which is certainly legal gives you more time to 'become' right about the forex swings, should you need to kick the plate to 'GTF out of this dilemma'.

 

You can if inclined do a reasonable guess as to the direction of the exchange rate with some simple tools (trends tend to have inertia) - maybe not enough to be a wall street guru, but good enough to get things a little more on your side.  That, along with previous suggestions of tightening belt for a couple of months to make the grade should it become necessary, or treating your living money separate to your seasoned money give you a fair degree of latitude if you're already in the ball park would give a very high probability of success.  "The" way doesn't exist, but we have a toolbox of options to build what is most appropriate for individual needs.

 

[Dazinoz]

A little off topic as I use the income method but have just been caught out. I have another thread running on this matter. The rate could be 30 baht to the aud all year and fall just before you apply for your extension, say down to 23  but thats what immigration use for the income conversion.

 

I guess too hard (for them) to calculate an average for the year.

[steve73]

The ONLY way to avoid ALL risk is to keep 800k in a Thai bank...  I'm sure there are some Venezuelans who thought they had enough bolivars, only to see their value in THB drop by 1million % over the past couple of years.... (or Zimbabweans a couple of decades ago).  

 

With the amount of printing (or QE) by the US/UK/Euro, etc, I'm actually surprised these currencies are not dropping even faster than they are.  I can only conclude that Thailand is printing equally.  

[Jingthing]

I think I've come up with an almost risk free tactic. Already stated. Put in an ample buffer and if the rate eats well into that buffer during the seasoning period just top up and restore the ample buffer.

I've been doing similar with my 800k to deal with unpredicted spending. Just top up some more during the seasoning period if things are getting too close to the bone.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Shiver]

11 minutes ago, steve73 said:

The ONLY way to avoid ALL risk is to keep 800k in a Thai bank...  I'm sure there are some Venezuelans who thought they had enough bolivars, only to see their value in THB drop by 1million % over the past couple of years.... (or Zimbabweans a couple of decades ago).  

 

With the amount of printing (or QE) by the US/UK/Euro, etc, I'm actually surprised these currencies are not dropping even faster than they are.  I can only conclude that Thailand is printing equally.  

 

In many ways it's a race to the bottom. Yuan and Yen are doing it too.  In relative terms they look similar(ish) on a chart, but in purchasing power just think back a decade, two decades and recall the price of something like Gasoline, a Pint, Cigarettes or whatever.  Food baskets change to reflect whatever makes the best statistic.

I'm not sure whether Thailand wants a strong or weak currency, though I'd be inclined to believe strong if anything.

[lamyai3]

On 9/1/2018 at 2:23 PM, KhunBENQ said:

The rates are currency market rates (not really what the immigration will look up), but the swing/percentage for other rates (notes, TT) will be close.

Do you know what rates immigration (Bangkok) use? I've been basing calculations on the xe rates site, but looking at Bangkok Bank's website, their "bank notes buying rates" seem to be about 2% lower.

Edited September 3, 2018 by lamyai3

[ubonjoe]

7 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

Do you know what rates immigration (Bangkok) use? I've been basing calculations on the xe rates site, but looking at Bangkok Bank's website, their "bank notes buying rates" seem to be about 2% lower.

They use the rates shown on a Thai banks website on the date you apply.

[KhunBENQ]

9 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

Do you know what rates immigration (Bangkok) use?

 

2 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

They use the rates shown on a Thai banks website on the date you apply.

E.g. from Bangkok Bank homepage today see below.

For the Euro they would probably use the note buying rate of 37.35 (the worst case number). XE shows 37.9780 at this time, a difference of about 1.7%.

Edited September 4, 2018 by KhunBENQ

[Shiver]

I can't imagine a reason why they'd use Note rate if it's electronic transfer, since the means test is how many baht you have (however you get it here) rather than how much 'funny money' (as they would see it, that you started with.

 

[lamyai3]

5 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

 

E.g. from Bangkok Bank homepage today see below.

For the Euro they would probably use the note buying rate of 37.35 (the worst case number). XE shows 37.9780 at this time, a difference of about 1.7%.

Is it definitely Bangkok Bank's rate they use, or is it an arbitrary thing? The rates quoted between the banks are quite variable, for instance Kasikornbank is about 1% lower again than the Bangkok Bank pound rate. I'm getting worried about my income letter if the pound drops much further. 

[Shiver]

Of the few times I've looked at exchange rates, different banks are better on different days.

[Agusts]

This is a bit old thread but I wanted to mention that topping up your seasoning money does not remedy the exchange rate fluctuation problem as some mentioned because way the immigration only uses the latest rate and applies it to history, a totally erroneous practice...   

 

This problem also applies if you want to use a foreign currency account in Thai bank for 800k baht equivalent. 

 

As an example say I put £20k and exchange is now 41 to baht,  so I'm covered (820k baht),  a month later exchange is 40, so I'm still okay,  but Top Up £1k to be safe with £21k.  

 

But when I go for my extension the exchange becomes 39 ! The immigration looks at the first month amount of £20k and says you are not up to 800k baht for first month of the 3 months,  so no good...  !!? Even though I'm okay for the last 2 months with £21k. 

 

So Top Up doesn't work,  immigration should really check old balance with old exchange rate for that time,  but I guess that is well and truly beyond them...  lol ???? 

 

[Jingthing]

Sure it works if you leave a generous amount of buffer. Of course that won't protect against massive moves in a few days time but how often does that happen?

[DrJack54]

How silly are these threads. If you opt for money in bank then you have 800k up in Thai bank. End of story. You opt from income method or combo then you need buffer zone. It ain't rocket science. 

[farangx]

1 hour ago, Agusts said:

This is a bit old thread but I wanted to mention that topping up your seasoning money does not remedy the exchange rate fluctuation problem as some mentioned because way the immigration only uses the latest rate and applies it to history, a totally erroneous practice...   

 

A money changer or bank would give you today's rate and not last month's rate.  The latest rate is the real rate, go figure.

 

1 hour ago, Agusts said:

As an example say I put £20k and exchange is now 41 to baht,  so I'm covered (820k baht),  a month later exchange is 40, so I'm still okay,  but Top Up £1k to be safe with £21k.  

 

But when I go for my extension the exchange becomes 39 ! The immigration looks at the first month amount of £20k and says you are not up to 800k baht for first month of the 3 months,  so no good...  !!? Even though I'm okay for the last 2 months with £21k. 

 

So Top Up doesn't work,  immigration should really check old balance with old exchange rate for that time,  but I guess that is well and truly beyond them...  lol ???? 

 

Your balance was only above 800K for 2 months.  That 800K needs to be in a Thai bank for 3 months.  The only sure thing is if you have 800K in baht and not its equivalent in a foreign currency.  

 

As an example, if GBP is today worth 30b, then your £21K will be worth 630K, way short of the 800K required.  You will need to bring that balance up with another 170b today, and then your 800K's 3 month seasoning will start from today.  And this is only good if the exchange rate at the end of the 3 months is the same as today's rate or higher.

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by farangx

[steve73]

26 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Sure it works if you leave a generous amount of buffer. Of course that won't protect against massive moves in a few days time but how often does that happen?

One word... "Brexit"

 

Anyone planning to use GBP in an FCD for seasoning over the next few months would be well advised to keep a VERY healthy margin (20%) if they don't want to risk actually converting it to THB at this time.

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

How silly are these threads. If you opt for money in bank then you have 800k up in Thai bank. End of story. You opt from income method or combo then you need buffer zone. It ain't rocket science. 

Never said it was.

At this point for a number of nationalities until there are any new official guidelines, income methods are over (unless you have one of those supposedly good for six months last issue letters.

[DrJack54]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Never said it was.

At this point for a number of nationalities until there are any new official guidelines, income methods are over (unless you have one of those supposedly good for six months last issue letters.

True you never stated that. In some other threads and some posts here some people seem short changed by the rules. They are not.  They just never understood the ruled