Baht Continues To Be Strongest Emerging Market Currency

[NanLaew]

"Thailand, the birthplace of the Asian financial crisis two decades ago, has emerged as a haven from this year’s emerging-market rout.

The baht has outperformed every other developing-nation currency in the past month as the turmoil centered on Argentina and Turkey began to spread across emerging markets. Thailand’s large current-account surplus and foreign-exchange reserves, as well as a relatively low level of overseas ownership have cushioned any impact. ..."

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-05/birthplace-of-asian-crisis-becomes-haven-in-emerging-market-rout

[morrobay]

Nothing but bad news on the baht. 

[Aussieroaming]

6 hours ago, morrobay said:

Nothing but bad news on the baht. 

Meaning what bad news?

[giddyup]

14 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

Meaning what bad news?

Bad for foreign exchange rates. Pretty obvious.

[SpeakeasyThai]

3 hours ago, giddyup said:

Bad for foreign exchange rates. Pretty obvious.

Incorrect.

It's good..... for Thais.

[samsensam]

On 9/14/2018 at 10:16 AM, morrobay said:

Nothing but bad news on the baht. 

 

that's debatable; the price of imports falls, the living standards of consumers can improve, costs of raw materials from abroad are lower, thais travelling abroad get more local currency for their baht - as does anyone working in thiland and sending money abroad

[Aussieroaming]

3 hours ago, giddyup said:

Bad for foreign exchange rates. Pretty obvious.

Right, depends if you are buying or selling then doesnt it.

[Belzybob]

33 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said:

Right, depends if you are buying or selling then doesnt it.

It is becoming a significant issue for me personally, to the point where I may have to look at alternative holiday locations.

[Pedrogaz]

Baht was judged as the least vulnerable emerging market currency due to low debt and high growth by an independent investment bank. I'm hedged so either way.....

[CH1961]

Nothing to complain .. more than 20 percent plus over the last 10 years ?

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, Belzybob said:

It is becoming a significant issue for me personally, to the point where I may have to look at alternative holiday locations.

Try Vietnam. Holidaying or living. 

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, SpeakeasyThai said:

Incorrect.

It's good..... for Thais.

Thailand is a net exporter.

 

The customers of the Thai companies must love the constant price increases due to currency valuation, quite possibly to the point that they go elsewhere.

 

Edited September 15, 2018 by ukrules

[bubba45]

I doubt many average thais (meaning those not driving BMWs) buy imported items.  Besides, the government taxes imports so much the whole economy is screwed.  So while a currency's strength means something to Americans and Europeans, I think the average Thai doesn't know or care what the baht is doing.

From my perspective, the problem with the baht is I end up paying first world prices in a third world country. 

[elgenon]

Is China still considered an emerging economy?

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, elgenon said:

Is China still considered an emerging economy?

Yes

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, bubba45 said:

I doubt many average thais (meaning those not driving BMWs) buy imported items.  Besides, the government taxes imports so much the whole economy is screwed.  So while a currency's strength means something to Americans and Europeans, I think the average Thai doesn't know or care what the baht is doing.

From my perspective, the problem with the baht is I end up paying first world prices in a third world country. 

1

The average Thai cares, or at least should care:

 

1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$42.3 billion (18.8% of total imports)
2. Mineral fuels including oil: $31.6 billion (14.1%)
3. Machinery including computers: $27.4 billion (12.1%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $15.3 billion (6.8%)
5. Iron, steel: $10.6 billion (4.7%)
6. Vehicles: $9.2 billion (4.1%)
7. Plastics, plastic articles: $8.7 billion (3.9%)
8. Articles of iron or steel: $7.1 billion (3.2%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.6 billion (2.5%)
10. Organic chemicals: $4.3 billion (1.9%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-imports/

 

 

[Mac98]

The government is seen as stable. That could change as election nears.

[simoh1490]

12 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

The government is seen as stable. That could change as election nears.

As said repeatedly, the government of the day has zero bearing on the strength of the Baht.

[Mac98]

8 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

As said repeatedly, the government of the day has zero bearing on the strength of the Baht.

If course it doesn't, but foreign perception does. 

[Number 6]

Thai baht is in great shape but the economy and consumers over leveraged.

 

All the drama with EM currencies, thb not budged. Truly rock solid, much to my dismay.

 

[OJAS]

3 hours ago, Mac98 said:

If course it doesn't, but foreign perception does. 

Far from declining, I distinctly recall the THB's value actually soaring during the poliitical crises here in 2008 and 2010.

[sydneyjed]

Working out at $8 AUD a bottle of beer now around Nana on a night..extracting the urine now and stretching the friendship!

 

[simoh1490]

7 hours ago, Mac98 said:

If course it doesn't, but foreign perception does. 

Only to a limited degree in respect of capital inflows, export and tourism volumes however remain unaffected.

[kalidescopemind]

On ‎9‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 8:24 AM, ukrules said:

Thailand is a net exporter.

 

The customers of the Thai companies must love the constant price increases due to currency valuation, quite possibly to the point that they go elsewhere.

 

The Thai girls are the strength of the Bhat, with constant liquidity and high cash flows.  I'll bet their customers don't "love" the increases much.  lol.

[elgenon]

23 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Yes

So the OP is saying the Thai economy is stronger than the Chinese economy? The rate of growth might be slowing a bit but it seems they are still kicking butt.

[simoh1490]

41 minutes ago, elgenon said:

So the OP is saying the Thai economy is stronger than the Chinese economy? The rate of growth might be slowing a bit but it seems they are still kicking butt.

If you compare the Chinese and Thai economies they are of course very different things. But structurally the Thai economy is in far better shape, if for no other reason than Thai government borrowings are much lower as a percentage of GDP AND Thai overseas borrowings are extremely low.

[morrobay]

13 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Only to a limited degree in respect of capital inflows, export and tourism volumes however remain unaffected.

And thats a 3 legged stool :  Remove one leg and it crashes. And which one is the most precarious ?  Inflows ? Exports ?

Edited September 17, 2018 by morrobay

[simoh1490]

10 minutes ago, morrobay said:

And thats a 3 legged stool :  Remove one leg and it crashes. And which one is the most precarious ?  Inflows ? Exports ?

I don't think so, we've already seen capital inflows reduce as foreign capital has retreated West and still that stool is very stable......unfortunate choice of words there, stool!

[morrobay]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

If you compare the Chinese and Thai economies they are of course very different things. But structurally the Thai economy is in far better shape, if for no other reason than Thai government borrowings are much lower as a percentage of GDP AND Thai overseas borrowings are extremely low.

The economies may be different but Thailand is very dependent on China : 12 percent exports, tourism, and now FDI. So what can go wrong in China is going to be a problem in Thailand. 

[elgenon]

18 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

If you compare the Chinese and Thai economies they are of course very different things. But structurally the Thai economy is in far better shape, if for no other reason than Thai government borrowings are much lower as a percentage of GDP AND Thai overseas borrowings are extremely low.

Where I get confused is that the Chinese have huge foreign reserves but the local governments owe huge. I think. But the debt is to the national government?

China is spending big in many parts of the world. Thailand couldn't begin to do it.

Can you sort all this out?