Just Received Some Bad News For US Citizens. No More Income Affidavits.

[HHTel]

5 hours ago, garyk said:

Thought this might be interesting to some here? Didn't have $hit to do today so here goes.. haha

 

China, UK, U.S., Japan, Germany, France, + rest of the world = about 435,669 expatriates in Thailand. Got this from Wiki (2010).

 

I divided that by 2 (just a guess on the number of retired expats in Thailand) 435,669 / 2 = 217,834.5 retired expats in Thailand.

 

Then I took that number and multiplied by 800K that needed to be seeded in a Thai bank.

217,834.5 x 800,000 baht = 174,267,600,000 baht / yr. into Thai banks. So about 174.268 billion baht / year.

 

I converted this into dollars so it would be easy for me to identify with.  174,267,600,000 / 32 = 5,445,862,500 U.S. dollars. So 5.445863 billion dollars / year.

 

Now I divided this by 4, because the 800K baht needs to be seeded in a Thai bank for 3 months. 5,445,862,500 / 4 = 1,361,465,625  U.S. dollars. So about 1.361466 billion U.S. dollars guaranteed in a Thai bank at all times throughout the year.

 

Now a investment of 5% / yr.  = 1,361,465,625 x .05 = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / year. So the Thai banks would get a pay day of 68.073 million dollars / year profit.

 

So, if there is 217,834.5 thousand people on a retirement extension = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / yr minimum. Or 68.073 million dollars profit.

 

Just say that was halved that again. 217.834.5K people x .5 = 108,917.25. So that would equal a yearly income to the Thai banks of 68,073,281.25 / 2 = 34,036,640.6 dollars / yr. Or 34.037 million dollars / yr.

 

If we halve it again 108,917.25 x .5 = 54,458.625 retirees. That would be about 17.018 million dollars / yr profit.

 

Of course this is just speculation on my part. I wish I knew the actual number of retired expats living here?

But, it shows there is a very good argument that these new rules will result in a very nice pay day for the banks.

 

Not to mention the 800K seed money will most likely stay in the banks and be drawn down during the year.

 

So, if there are 108.917 K expats in retirement here then the total(guesstimated) value to the banks would be. 1.089172499 billion baht / yr. pure profit guaranteed.

 

IMO what the government is doing is wanting a guaranteed monthly amount invested in a Thai bank, strictly to generate a guaranteed payday. 

 

Smart IMO, and nothing wrong with that if the numbers hold up.

Personally I don't think it has anything to do with the income letters, it is a scheme to generate cash flow. 

Nicely done too.

 

I accept that you were playing with figures.  However they are far from the reality.  For example, the Chinese are made up as follows:

 

Quote

About 74.8% came for employment such as white collar jobs, Chinese-language teachers and tour guides, while 21% came

for study and 4.2% to accompany their family. Some intend to return to China once they have made their fortune or succeeded in their endeavours.  

95% - employment and study and the rest accompanying their families.

You'll find similar breakdown of Indians and Japanese.

 

The majority of retirees are taken from the 300,00 or so from the west and even those are made up of people working, studying and other reasons.

 

The British Embassy stated that they only process around 3,000 income letters per year!

 

The theory about the Thai government/banks looking for large deposits is flawed:

 

Of the 2.8 mill foreigners living here, the European, US, Canada and Australia are less than 300,000 and many of them are working here. The rest are from Asia and choose to work here for a greater wage than they can get back home. These people invariably work to send money home to their families. Therefore of the whole 2.8 mill, the result is a net outflow of cash. I'm not forgetting the services they provide, just talking of cash.

The theory that the Thai government is pushing retirees/married expats to deposit 800/400K into the bank generating billions of baht into Thailand has not been thought through.

So we need to go back to primary school for some simple maths!

Case No. 1:
The person who up until now has been able to declare the legal requirement for income, and assuming he spends that in Thailand, will give the bank an annual deposit of 780,000 baht. If he needs now to switch to 800,000 in the bank then it produces an annual net deposit of +20,000 baht (for the first year only) as income deposits will no longer be there.

Case No. 2:
A person who has been able to satisfy the income required but has no means of getting his hands on a lump sum of 800,000 may be forced to leave the country. Effect of the banks - a loss of 780,000 a year.

Case No. 3:
A person who has been 'winging' it using false declarations or the use of an 'agent' and can't come up with the 800,000 will also be forced to leave. Effect on the banks - a loss of whatever his true income is.

Can you see where I'm going with this? Rather than the conspiracy by the Thai authorities to boost their bank deposits, this action will have the reverse effect not to mention the small effect we have on the economy.
 

[AmericanSafety]

On 10/26/2018 at 9:02 PM, JackThompson said:

Immigration don't get brown-envelopes for condo sales, and recent policies don't seem focused on the well-being rest of the citizenry.  But on the flipside, many expats may move here now who don't have 65K Baht/mo income, and wouldn't risk prison with the "felony income-document" letter, but who can figure out how to send money in and out to satisfy the new proposed standard.  There could be more expats renting condos than ever, depending on how the new rules are set-up.

I have a fairly modest life and work outside of Thailand. I travel back 4 times a year. Many of my friends in Thailand have a significantly more modest life than myself (some solely on social security). It almost seems like the Thai gov't only wants flash millionaires to retire in Thailand and let's be honest, I know quite few of those. It is hardly realistic and actually seems far more xenophobic to me.

[balo]

40 minutes ago, AmericanSafety said:

t almost seems like the Thai gov't only wants flash millionaires to retire in Thailand and let's be honest, I know quite few of those. It is hardly realistic and actually seems far more xenophobic to me.

Well then they have to go somewhere else, Vietnam and Cambodia will get their money instead. Maybe a good thing.  

[assayer]

On 11/2/2018 at 1:40 AM, JimmyJ said:

 

I wonder what part of the current situation was caused by continual posts like this appearing in Thaivisa Forums?

 

Perhaps a bigger cause than what you state was the issue?

 

 

Jimmyj what do you think these people were living on if they did noy have that income? I personally have more than that every month and still have to watch what I am doing or I get myself into a bind.

 

[Ahab]

9 hours ago, Ebumbu said:

 

Do you know if this can be an average, or if it literally needs to be the same each month? My income varies, but on average easily exceeds the requirements. I can go a month with no deposits, but make it up the next month. 

Don't know for sure, but I would think as long as you brought tin the required amount over the course of a year it should be good. Hard to tell though, especially when different Thai immigration offices have different requirements.

[Ahab]

9 hours ago, Ebumbu said:

 

Do you know if this can be an average, or if it literally needs to be the same each month? My income varies, but on average easily exceeds the requirements. I can go a month with no deposits, but make it up the next month. 

Don't know for sure, but I would think as long as you brought tin the required amount over the course of a year it should be good. Hard to tell though, especially when different Thai immigration offices have different requirements.

[assayer]

11 hours ago, garyk said:

Thought this might be interesting to some here? Didn't have $hit to do today so here goes.. haha

 

China, UK, U.S., Japan, Germany, France, + rest of the world = about 435,669 expatriates in Thailand. Got this from Wiki (2010).

 

I divided that by 2 (just a guess on the number of retired expats in Thailand) 435,669 / 2 = 217,834.5 retired expats in Thailand.

 

Then I took that number and multiplied by 800K that needed to be seeded in a Thai bank.

217,834.5 x 800,000 baht = 174,267,600,000 baht / yr. into Thai banks. So about 174.268 billion baht / year.

 

I converted this into dollars so it would be easy for me to identify with.  174,267,600,000 / 32 = 5,445,862,500 U.S. dollars. So 5.445863 billion dollars / year.

 

Now I divided this by 4, because the 800K baht needs to be seeded in a Thai bank for 3 months. 5,445,862,500 / 4 = 1,361,465,625  U.S. dollars. So about 1.361466 billion U.S. dollars guaranteed in a Thai bank at all times throughout the year.

 

Now a investment of 5% / yr.  = 1,361,465,625 x .05 = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / year. So the Thai banks would get a pay day of 68.073 million dollars / year profit.

 

So, if there is 217,834.5 thousand people on a retirement extension = 68,073,281.25 U.S. dollars / yr minimum. Or 68.073 million dollars profit.

 

Just say that was halved that again. 217.834.5K people x .5 = 108,917.25. So that would equal a yearly income to the Thai banks of 68,073,281.25 / 2 = 34,036,640.6 dollars / yr. Or 34.037 million dollars / yr.

 

If we halve it again 108,917.25 x .5 = 54,458.625 retirees. That would be about 17.018 million dollars / yr profit.

 

Of course this is just speculation on my part. I wish I knew the actual number of retired expats living here?

But, it shows there is a very good argument that these new rules will result in a very nice pay day for the banks.

 

Not to mention the 800K seed money will most likely stay in the banks and be drawn down during the year.

 

So, if there are 108.917 K expats in retirement here then the total(guesstimated) value to the banks would be. 1.089172499 billion baht / yr. pure profit guaranteed.

 

IMO what the government is doing is wanting a guaranteed monthly amount invested in a Thai bank, strictly to generate a guaranteed payday. 

 

Smart IMO, and nothing wrong with that if the numbers hold up.

Personally I don't think it has anything to do with the income letters, it is a scheme to generate cash flow. 

Nicely done too.

 

i thought of this earlier but did not post on it Garyk. But my thoughts were also on these lines.

Each of the foreign consulates charge about $50 US to notarize those forms but the banks are only getting 100 baht for doing there certifications.

Now if the consulate forms are not legal the only thing left is the bank certificates. If anyone has a monopoly on anything then they can set the price for that commodity at anything they want and it has to be paid to receive it. So why not increase your charge to say 1600 baht or even to 2000 baht "because we can", right?

So if we use your number of retirees in Thailand (217834.5) and multiply that by the 1600 current cost of documents we have an additional 348,535,200 baht in the Thai banks yearly. And that number added to your total would make the amount into Thai banks each and every year a total of now 1,437,707,499. Or if you use the 2000 baht charge it would be slightly over 1,5 billion per year.

[HHTel]

Even if those figures were correct (and they're way off), with TRILLIONS of baht flowing through the banks, do you think that our tiny contribution is going to make any difference or even be noticed.  Of course not.

[merijn]

14 hours ago, Ebumbu said:

 

Agents in Phuket are not sure what is going on. Neither am I yet. Working on it and trying to gather data. 

 

All indications are that in Phuket, income method must be tied to pension or government (guaranteed) income. No exceptions. I will know for certain soon. 

 

This doesn't seem to be a scheme to promote agents. 

 

That's correct PHUKET immigration will only accept affidavits (they are 6 months valid) from the effected countries if proof from an government pension fund is supplied.

Military pension is not accepted, only government pension.

This is to make sure that the monthly income is guaranteed for the next 12 months.

 

[Pattaya46]

7 minutes ago, merijn said:

That's correct PHUKET immigration will only accept affidavits (they are 6 months valid) from the effected countries if proof from an government pension fund is supplied. Military pension is not accepted, only government pension. //

Didn't Phuket Immigration *published* some paper or Internet notice about their new own rules ?

Would be nice to have some kind of proof among all the rumours of this topic...

[garyk]

59 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Even if those figures were correct (and they're way off), with TRILLIONS of baht flowing through the banks, do you think that our tiny contribution is going to make any difference or even be noticed.  Of course not.

I think the number of 54,458.625 people is way low IMO HHTel!

My extension is in CM each year. It is packed. I would say at least 25 retirement extensions / day are issued there on average, maybe more.

If we take 25 / day * 5 days * 50 weeks.  We get 6,250 retirement extensions / year. I think that is low balling it personally.

Now how many other Thai immigration offices would it take to get 54,458.625 people. The answer is 8.71338 offices?

Udon, Huy Hin, BKK, CM, and all the other immigration offices in Thailand that process retirement extensions. This number of 54,458.625 people is not only likely, but probably way to low IMO.

 

One other quick observation:

UK, US, Australia and most all developed country's are having a baby boom retirement explosion.

I would guess 99% or more,  have at least the 25K / year for the 800K baht seeding, and a pension to spend here in Thailand.

Thailand is in a very good position, all they needed to do was figure a way to insure the 800K to be seeded in a Thai bank. The embassy letter was there ticket to a financial wind fall.

 

Regards.

 

 

 

[JackThompson]

 

19 hours ago, JLCrab said:

I thought Thaidream was "Just Kidding" when he said that he was going to bring his accountant along with him to Immigration. 

Is it OK if the accountant attends via Skype conference-meeting on a tablet?  I don't have an easy "pension" income, so it's going to take some explaining.  Maybe we need a Thai accountant on the call as well, to interpret? 

 

Something tells me that people like me will be told, "Sorry, no can do," with the income-letters gone - unless proof of bank-deposits suffice.  But those prove very little, except the ability to transfer money in circles.

[garyk]

54 minutes ago, merijn said:

That's correct PHUKET immigration will only accept affidavits (they are 6 months valid) from the effected countries if proof from an government pension fund is supplied.

Military pension is not accepted, only government pension.

This is to make sure that the monthly income is guaranteed for the next 12 months.

 

I thought a Military pension was a government pension?

[JLCrab]

11 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

But those prove very little, except the ability to transfer money in circles.

You mean like 3 people sharing the same 800,000 baht each year for 3 months?

[merijn]

5 minutes ago, garyk said:

I thought a Military pension was a government pension?

In my opinion also but tell that to the Phuket Immigration.

I don't know why it is not accepted.

[garyk]

2 minutes ago, merijn said:

In my opinion also but tell that to the Phuket Immigration.

I don't know why it is not accepted.

Wow????

[Thaidream]

20 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

I thought Thaidream was "Just Kidding" when he said that he was going to bring his accountant along with him to Immigration. 

I decided to bring my Thai wife- she has a fix on every Baht -where it's hidden and how to get  it!

[JLCrab]

10 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

I decided to bring my Thai wife- she has a fix on every Baht -where it's hidden and how to get  it!

The way it has been up until now with the US income affidavit, the IMM official looks at the same Embassy template each time, looks at the US$ income number provided, and multiplies by the US$ to Thai baht conversion rate of his/her choosing and THAT'S IT! as far as establishing monthly income.

 

... and now you are talking about bringing your wife as being necessary to explain things?

[Thaidream]

1 minute ago, JLCrab said:

The way it has been up until now with the US income affidavit, the IMM official looks at the same Embassy template each time, looks at the US$ income number provided, and multiplies by the US$ to Thai baht conversion rate of his/her choosing and THAT'S IT! as far as establishing monthly income.

 

... and now you are talking about bringing your wife as being necessary to explain things?

I may need her to explain why a US Military Pension is actually a US Government Pension or in lieu of that whether  the IO drinks Johnny Black.   Just Kidding!! 

However, I shall enter with my final US Embassy Letter and my  multitude of docs hopefully which prove I actually  have the funds- smile constantly- bathe before arriving- and wear my best shirt and slacks. I shall  wai before the IO and swear to tell the truth, the whole truth etc. If that doesn't work- I'll probably just stick the money in a Thai Bank or buy an elite visa and forget the whole thing for 5 years.

[jmd8800]

11 minutes ago, JLCrab said:

The way it has been up until now with the US income affidavit, the IMM official looks at the same Embassy template each time, looks at the US$ income number provided, and multiplies by the US$ to Thai baht conversion rate of his/her choosing and THAT'S IT! as far as establishing monthly income.

 

... and now you are talking about bringing your wife as being necessary to explain things?

I think he was trying to be funny.

[JLCrab]

2 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

However, I shall enter with my final US Embassy Letter and ...

Why do you think it should require anything more than that?

[JLCrab]

3 minutes ago, jmd8800 said:

I think he was trying to be funny.

Funny or not, I don't think it is reasonable to expect that an IMM officer is going to be able or willing to go through some convoluted presentation as to what is being claimed as monthly income should some new version of the monthly income extension be implemented.

[Pattaya46]

1 hour ago, merijn said:

// proof from an government pension fund is supplied.

Military pension is not accepted, only government pension.

You should read this post :

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1065942-income-affidavit-denied-in-phuket/?page=8&tab=comments#comment-13524512

 

[Thaidream]

5 minutes ago, JLCrab said:

Why do you think it should require anything more than that?

As far as I am concerned it should be enough but I always carry  a letter proving my Social Security and Veterans Pension -  I hope they just do as normal- look at the amount on the embassy letter- do the math- and good for another year.

[JLCrab]

4 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

12 minutes ago, JLCrab said:

Why do you think it should require anything more than that?

As far as I am concerned it should be enough

Well hopefully for you that is enough because, if they start asking for more, they can always ask for something more and/or different from what you have.

[Thaidream]

1 minute ago, JLCrab said:

Well hopefully for you that is enough because, if they start asking for more, they can always ask for something more and/or different from what you have.

I  have been dealing with Thai immigration for almost 50 years- usually when they ask for something out of the ordinary- and difficult to obtain- that is a signal to either see the supervisor or ask the IO how to resolve the problem. Something like that has only come up twice for me-and resolved both times

 

I would guess that Bangkok; Jomtien; CM and Udon will  all work the same and follow the police order while  some of the other offices will have idiosyncrasies just like they do now.  Reports will start to emerge .

[JLCrab]

I really don't care how many years one has been dealing with Thai Immigration -- Anyone who says and not joking that it should not take any more than 4-5 minutes to explain to an IMM officer in some future monthly income based extension when it now takes about 20 seconds maybe should re-evaluate that comment.

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, merijn said:

That's correct PHUKET immigration will only accept affidavits (they are 6 months valid) from the effected countries if proof from an government pension fund is supplied.

Military pension is not accepted, only government pension.

This is to make sure that the monthly income is guaranteed for the next 12 months.

How do you know they will not accept military pensions?

[Thaidream]

3 minutes ago, JLCrab said:

really don't care how many years one has been dealing with Thai Immigration -- Anyone who says and not joking that it should not take any more than 4-5 minutes to explain to an IMM officer in some future monthly income based extension when it now takes about 20 seconds maybe should re-evaluate that comment.

Then I shall  edit my prior response by saying it took ME and only ME- 4-5 minutes to explain my income proof when the IO asked me to prove I get  65K per month. I have no idea how long someone else would take.  And JL- I really don't care  if you believe me or not and I'm NOT kidding!!

[merijn]

12 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

How do you know they will not accept military pensions?

The (Phuket) responsible IO informed me about this.