Who really suffers

[Cat ji]

1 hour ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Cut and pasted from a post of mine in another thread. 

[...]

 

I am lucky, I have some time to sit back and see what happens after the 90 days, with those who have used an agent.  

Sorry, I don't get it, please spell it out for me.

[gentlemanjackdarby]

1 hour ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Cut and pasted from a post of mine in another thread. 

 

The figures speak for themselves.  It's basically a 45,900 baht a year visa, and you lose control of your money.  

 

Also, the money in your account is not for emergencies.  It is not back up.  You can only use 400k of it for 5 months of the year, or you don't get next year's visa. 

 

 

Firstly, the 800k is tied up for 5 months.  400k is tied up forever.  Of course, you can withdraw any or all of it, but you will not receive next year's visa, so that's as good as 400k you will never see again, for as long as you wish to live in Thailand. 

 

You will get between 6% to 8% return if your 800k is in a diversified, non aggressive, managed fund, in your home country.  Let's just pick the average of 7% for this example.

 

You get 1.5% from a Thai bank for your 800k.

 

Here's the maths.

 

800,000 baht x 7% = 56,000 baht per year.  (return from a fund)

 

800,000 baht x 1.5% = 12,000 baht per year.  (return from a Thai bank)

 

56,000 baht - 12,000 baht = 44,000 baht.  (this is what you are forced to "lose" under the 800k method)

 

44,000 baht + 1900 baht (visa fee) = 45,900 baht.  (this is the total cost to an expat using the 800k method, and they have lost the use of their money through seasoning and have to deal with all the paperwork)

 

45,900 baht / 12 months = 3.825 baht. (visa cost per month to live in Thailand under the 800k method)

 

versus

 

20,000 baht / 12 = 1,666 baht.  (visa cost per month to live in Thailand if you use an agent, and there is no seasoning to worry about, and you maintain control of your finances, which are left in a safe western country, and no paperwork to do)

 

3,825 baht - 1,666 baht = 2,159 baht.  This is the extra cost to people using the 800k method, or, what people using the agents save, per month.

 

Remember, we are talking about the same "product."  Not an inferior visa class.  

 

Of course, there are other issues to think about, like how your beneficiaries get the money if it's in a Thai bank etc, but the above shows the loss / savings over one method versus the other method.

 

I am lucky, I have some time to sit back and see what happens after the 90 days, with those who have used an agent. 

 

To sum up, the 800k runs at a continual loss for the expat, as it doesn't even keep up with inflation.  

 

You say I don't see the 20,000 baht ever again, but you don't see the 44,000 baht in losses, that you will never earn each year, from being forced to lodge 800k into a Thai bank, at 1.5%, with 400k of it you can never use again.    

 

Now, compare the 800k method to the visas offered in nearby countries, and you can see what a lousy deal this is.   

Your maths look good and I don't disagree with you

 

As well, I'm a 'put it to work' kind of guy, but I think one thing the 'put it to work' crowd forgets is that no one should ever put all of their net worth 'to work' - one must have a pool of cash (for example in a purchased money fund) that is readily available to finance one's life for a significant period of time, in my case for one year, to ride out the inevitable declines in my 'put it to work' money that arise from, for example, a rise in interest rates (a decline in the value of bonds) or sabre-rattling about trade tariffs (a decline in the value of equities)

 

Of course, with a net worth of only the equivalent of USD 31,000, other riskier ways to put one's net worth to 'to work', such as options and other derivatives or forex trading are clearly not an option.

[JustAnotherHun]

1 hour ago, Thailand Outcast said:

Is every foreigner in Thailand on the pound?  

 

No , but there"s no big difference to Euro, USD and SFr. They all declined sharply to the THB.

So even if you can get your 6 to 7 percent in one of these currencies - what I doubt - you would have lost money over the last ten years compared to a simple savings account in a Thai bank.

Compare bank interest rates here to most western countries and you see, there is not a big difference.

[gentlemanjackdarby]

29 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

It's financially stable. Whether it is politically stable is a horse of an entirely different color. Irrespective of our length of time here, we are still on one year's notice at best.

Under those circumstances, having 800,000 baht plus living expenses here is OK. Having all my assets here would qualify me for admission to a mental hospital.

I think that Thailand if financially stable right now, but it's impossible to have a financially stable country long-term without long-term political stability.

 

In my view, Thailand doesn't look politically stable for the long-term, so your advice about having anything more than the required fixed deposit and monthly living expenses is gold. 

[Cat ji]

4 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

No , but there"s no big difference to Euro, USD and SFr. They all declined sharply to the THB.

So even if you can get your 6 to 7 percent in one of these currencies - what I doubt - you would have lost money over the last ten years compared to a simple savings account in a Thai bank.

Compare bank interest rates here to most western countries and you see, there is not a big difference.

That is still only 4 currencies.  In the last 2-3 years, my "3rd world" currency lost about 30% value versus USD /Euro /GBP.  More-or-less no change in exchange rate with THB and INR.

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Thailand Outcast said:

At what percent would you advise not moving the 800k to Thailand of the sole purpose of getting a visa?

If it was 80-100%, I would advise not moving oneself to Thailand!

At 0.1-10 % I would advise yes, go ahead, make your stay simple.

In between, I would not advise. 

 

[lamyai3]

9 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

I had all my assets in Singapore (USD) and they kicked me out so I put them here.  I think I've done much better than I would have in the pound.  Been here for 20 years.  What'd ya think? Have you done better?

This is a spurious argument based on the fact that you got lucky by having to repatriate funds at a particular time. To present this as a an investment strategy is a bit ridiculous. 

[lamyai3]

9 hours ago, Cat ji said:

That is still only 4 currencies.  In the last 2-3 years, my "3rd world" currency lost about 30% value versus USD /Euro /GBP.  More-or-less no change in exchange rate with THB and INR.

This doesn't make sense. If your currency lost 30% against the GBP since 2016, and the GBP has lost 20% against the THB during the same period, how can you still be getting the same rates against the THB on your (unspecified) home currency? 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, lamyai3 said:

This doesn't make sense. If your currency lost 30% against the GBP since 2016, and the GBP has lost 20% against the THB during the same period, how can you still be getting the same rates against the THB on your (unspecified) home currency? 

Perhaps one of the 'rates' he got inverted. That happens with some currencies. IE His Hungarian Forint or whatever actually gained value against Sterling (would buy more  £) but Sterling lost it against Baht, end result same baht, same forint to baht rate. 

[ivor bigun]

I have no problem putting 800,000 baht into a thai bank to stay here,its not being able to spend it pisses me off

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[JustAnotherHun]

11 hours ago, Cat ji said:

That is still only 4 currencies.  In the last 2-3 years, my "3rd world" currency lost about 30% value versus USD /Euro /GBP.  More-or-less no change in exchange rate with THB and INR.

These are the major currencies of the expat community.

If it would be true that your currency lost 30% to them and nothing to THB that would be a paradise for cross trading. BS.

[lelapin]

It's amazing how many farangs I know in Thailand who get their thrills and pleasures in the year from how their bank balance has increased, and how their gold holdings and shares portfolio has soared in value.

I personally, within reason, like to spend mine on buying and doing things I want, without trying to justify if the purchase or trip was really worth every baht that I spent.

I have taken my girlfriend in the last 10 years to America, Australia, England and several parts of Asia and thoroughly enjoyed each trip.

They, with many times more wealth than me, consider their annual trip with their boy/girl friend to a 5* hotel to celebrate their birthday, an unnecessary indulgence.

I have reached the twilight years of my life and look back and think not how unfortunate I was not to amass the considerable assets many of these guys have, but thank my parents for guiding me to have had the attitude in life that gives me so many fine memories.

[RocketDog]

On 4/11/2019 at 1:28 AM, gentlemanjackdarby said:

Bank rates aren't necessarily a joke everywhere in the world - I have some cash in a savings (demand deposit) account at a large credit union (about USD 10 billion in assets) that's paying over 2%;

 

I also have some money in a purchased money fund (Charles Schwab - SWVXX) that's paying 2.3%

 

Now those rates look very poor when compared to returns on equities over the last 10 or so years, but those interest rates are about par with inflation (depending on one's situation and the measure of inflation one chooses), meaning one's principal is maintaining its purchasing power. And there's no risk to principal

 

Shares in the purchased money fund can be sold and settled the next day, so no tie-up there

 

I also have a small position in a high-yield bond fund (PHYZX) with a current 30 day SEC yield of 6.58% - Of course, there is risk in that type of investment from a rise in interest rates (not likely for the foreseeable future) and from the bond holders inability to service their debt (not much of a risk currently since corporate debt levels aren't that great and most issuers are servicing their debt), but the risks are not as great as holding equities.

 

Speaking of outright confiscations, real estate and precious metals are prime candidates for confiscation when a particular country's economy goes down the tubes - don't forget the 'nationalization' of entire companies that happened in Latin America in the '60s or, in the 1930s, President Roosevelt's outright ban of the private ownership of gold.

 

As for collectibles, if one owns anything of note, such as pictures, sculptures, porcelain, etc, it would be quite easy for a government to in effect confiscate them by simply heavily taxing sales by auction houses, dealers, etc.

 

Valid points as far as they go.

 

Certainly there are higher yielding financial instruments out there such as bond funds, but I was specifically about banks. So a $10,000 bank account makes you $200/yr of you're lucky. Still not impressive to me for the risk involved. The banks are skinning us and will continue to do so as long as they have our money and can gamble with it. If they win big we lose, if they lose big we lose big. 

 

Nearly keeping up with inflation huh. And every country on the planet is doing its best to increase inflation. Does that sound like a winning game to you? If it's digital and intangible it's ethereal and at high risk. What about server farm crashes, cyber attacks, internet failures, and outright web blackouts? No risk? 

 

As for tangibles, of course they can be seized with enough effort, but not as easily as a mouse click from the comfort of a government office. Cash is at least still cash; bank accounts are ones and zero in cyberspace. 

 

And if you're fool enough to keep metals in a bank then you deserve what you get especially with the Roosevelt swindle you named. Many legitimate banks advise you not to put precious metals in their safety(?) boxes. I'm you are aware of private vaults, specifically those outside your own country. Sculpture, art, porcelain are things you can derive pleasure from. Digital bits and paper currency have no aesthetic whatsoever unless you're Scrooge McDuck. 

 

It's all about diversification and international banking. Countries like Singapore and Switzerland come to mind. No single investment is unequivocally safe, so spread them out. 

[Thailand Outcast]

On 4/11/2019 at 4:18 AM, wilailuk said:

Occupied???

 

Thailand is a cheap whore, nothing else.  They slept with the US during the 60´s, sold out all national honor for that phony war next door, (did the same during WW2 with Japan, they ARE a rare breed, lying bastards) -  got a whole new country and infrastructure for that job, still does... CIA had/have waterboarding camps here, they fly in "terrorists" - and the Thai/Chinese elite mofu´s dont´care, they don´t care about anything, not you, not me, only money, they are Chinese you know?

 

So please don´t feel sorry for Thailand or the scumbags who rob, steal and f... this beautiful country, they don´t deserve any pity, only Karma will get them, sooner or later..

 

 

Whilst your post is not very politically correct, it is historically correct. 

 

They even think the can buy Karma here by "making merit." 

 

So, lie, cheat, steal, extort and bribe all week, but go to the temple on the weekend with your family, and it's all squared away with Buddha.   ????

[Thailand Outcast]

21 hours ago, Cat ji said:

Sorry, I don't get it, please spell it out for me.

The agents are arranging the 800k loans, for a matter of hours, to generate documents for the visas, then, the money is taken out of the expat's account, immediately. 

 

There are credible reports coming in that immigration offices want to see bank balances on the 90 day report. 

 

I will be monitoring what service the agents are offering for this. 

[ubonjoe]

This topic has certainly run it course now since it has gone completely off topic.

Topic now