A dry wet season - does catastrophe loom?

[Bangkok Barry]

 

It might a little early and things might change dramatically, but we are well into the wet season and in my area there has been very little rain. A few days of dark clouds but mostly hot and sunny. I could probably count the number of days it has rained on two hands.

Most of the fields in my area have very little water, and if this continues there might be very little rice grown. That presents the possibility that rice farmers might have to buy their rice rather than sell it, and Thailand could become a rice importer rather than exporter.

 

Just imagine what that could do to the economy. Would the government attempt to subsidise rice, risking a huge run on their foreign reserves (yes please!). As I said, early days, but the government has been interestingly quiet so far. Perhaps they'll be launching their planes into the sky once again to magically produce rain where none exists.

[Denim]

Plenty of rain in Petchabun. Had a few mega storms already. My re dug drainage channel now meanders through my new rock garden. A microscopic Colorado river running through an equally microscopic grand canyon. Very absorbing, especially if high or pissed.

[Samuel Smith]

Had my lawn sprinklers on for over a week, east of Chiang mai.  Reservoirs very low.

[CharlieH]

9 minutes ago, Denim said:

Plenty of rain in Petchabun. Had a few mega storms already. My re dug drainage channel now meanders through my new rock garden. A microscopic Colorado river running through an equally microscopic grand canyon. Very absorbing, especially if high or pissed.

Really,? I ain't seen much at all, guess I missed it.

Big province though so who knows.

[ratcatcher]

7 minutes ago, Denim said:

Plenty of rain in Petchabun. Had a few mega storms already. My re dug drainage channel now meanders through my new rock garden. A microscopic Colorado river running through an equally microscopic grand canyon. Very absorbing, especially if high or pissed.

Well, that Petchabun rain hasn't moved westwards towards Phichit or if it came from the west, passed right over us. There will be major problems later in the year if or when the large northern dams are not full.The Nan river outside my house is at a cool season low. Sirikit Dam is not releasing much water, just enough to keep the Chao Phraya happy.

[Youlike]

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

[Bangkok Barry]

8 minutes ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

 

It isn't. Every Thai eats rice every day. If there is none or it is very expensive, what then? And it is, or maybe was until the strength of the Baht priced it out of the market, a major major Thai export.

[Jip99]

4 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

It isn't. Every Thai eats rice every day. If there is none or it is very expensive, what then? And it is, or maybe was until the strength of the Baht priced it out of the market, a major major Thai export.

 

 

 

I thought rice was traded in US Dollars ?

[Bangkok Barry]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

I thought rice was traded in US Dollars ?

 

I have no idea. But if Thailand can't sell rice and bring in US dollars then it hits the reserves.

[Jip99]

5 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

I have no idea. But if Thailand can't sell rice and bring in US dollars then it hits the reserves.

 

 

I agree  - but it won't be because of Baht strength.

[Bangkok Barry]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

I agree  - but it won't be because of Baht strength.

The Baht is strong partly because of Thailand's foreign reserves. If they have to start using that.......

[alacrity]

14 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

I thought rice was traded in US Dollars ?

As with many things here, that would be outside Thailand's borders. The chief reason the rice pledging scheme wasn't viable.

World markets determine the price(s) for the world. Not Thailand.

[Denim]

1 hour ago, CharlieH said:

Really,? I ain't seen much at all, guess I missed it.

Big province though so who knows.

 

Yep, this is in Wichien Buri , lower Petchabun. A few days ago there was a real deluge in the middle of the night. It was so loud it awoke me from my pleasant Lao Khao stupor , no mean feat. Wifey also awoke and commented that the dogs would be muddy in the morning after their early ablutions in the adjoining rice fields.

 

They were ..... but that is their raison d'etre , to make work for me and generally destroy the garden.

Fortunately, the boulders in my new rock garden are dog proof .... Perfect.

[CharlieH]

12 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

Yep, this is in Wichien Buri , lower Petchabun. A few days ago there was a real deluge in the middle of the night. It was so loud it awoke me from my pleasant Lao Khao stupor , no mean feat. Wifey also awoke and commented that the dogs would be muddy in the morning after their early ablutions in the adjoining rice fields.

 

They were ..... but that is their raison d'etre , to make work for me and generally destroy the garden.

Fortunately, the boulders in my new rock garden are dog proof .... Perfect.

Wichien = Great chicken !! ????

[mstevens]

8 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

maybe was until the strength of the Baht priced it out of the market, a major major Thai export.

Just wondering where you get this idea from? Even here some 10,000 miles from Thailand you can buy large sacks of Thai jasmine rice very cheap. Rice could double in price and it would still be cheap. Ditto pasta. No-one likes price increases but these staples are so cheap already that a major price increase won't change a consumer's behaviour. The percentage of the cost of a meal that rice makes up is negligible. It's not like prime beef or steak doubled in price which would, by comparison, markedly increase the cost of a meal.

Edited July 15, 2019 by mstevens

[Bangkok Barry]

2 hours ago, mstevens said:

Just wondering where you get this idea from? Even here some 10,000 miles from Thailand you can buy large sacks of Thai jasmine rice very cheap. Rice could double in price and it would still be cheap. Ditto pasta. No-one likes price increases but these staples are so cheap already that a major price increase won't change a consumer's behaviour. The percentage of the cost of a meal that rice makes up is negligible. It's not like prime beef or steak doubled in price which would, by comparison, markedly increase the cost of a meal.

 

You raise good points. My statement was based on something I read a few weeks ago that reported Thai rice was nearly double the price of rice from, I think, India and Vietnam. I don't know where those countries export to, but Thai rice might, might, be better quality and would still sell to certain countries at what to those 'better off' countries would still be a low price. Other, poorer, countries might not see it the same way and would go for the cheapest available. But I'm no authority on this, just the feeling I get.

[Bangkok Barry]

And now this:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1111935-little-rain-expected-so-save-water-pleads-ministry/?utm_source=newsletter-20190716-0648&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

[otherstuff1957]

According to the Thai Met. Dept., here is the scoop on rainfall from Jan 1 to July 15.  The total rainfall is shown on the left and the variation from normal (the 30 year average) is shown on the right.

 

[CGW]

15 hours ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

"Problem solved"? they moved away from rice in many areas, the "government" subsidised the planting of sugar cane with no thought given on harvesting, apart from burning, so rather than solve a problem its created even more problems.

[Vacuum]

15 hours ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

Cactuses?

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Vacuum said:

Cactuses?

Wheat?

[Naam]

16 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I have no idea.

i agree.

[canuckamuck]

Really dry up in here in the north. We normally would be planting new trees and crops, but there is no rain and what we did plant might die soon unless something changes. By this time of year no one thinks of rain usually because by this time of year it is usually a daily occurrence. The reservoirs are not filling, and the springs are still just a trickle, just like they are at the end of dry season. I can't even fill my pond because there isn't enough water. That would be inconceivable any other year in July.

 Unless we get a longer than normal wet season, next years dry season will be extreme.

[canopy]

There are wet years and dry years, it's just normal weather. Every year is different. If I recall 2015 was the driest of all years. The government predicted a dry June and July this year and they were right. They also predicted later in the season the rains will be heavy. It's amazing how accurate their long term forecasts tend to be. They also predicted 2019 could be an extremely hot year, maybe even the hottest on record.

 

[soalbundy]

18 hours ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

Yeah right, and now find a market for the alternative produce, an infrastructure or market for rice exists, what are the farmers supposed to do with 20 tons of runner beans ?

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, canuckamuck said:

Really dry up in here in the north. We normally would be planting new trees and crops, but there is no rain and what we did plant might die soon unless something changes. By this time of year no one thinks of rain usually because by this time of year it is usually a daily occurrence. The reservoirs are not filling, and the springs are still just a trickle, just like they are at the end of dry season. I can't even fill my pond because there isn't enough water. That would be inconceivable any other year in July.

 Unless we get a longer than normal wet season, next years dry season will be extreme.

around Surin the rice fields relying on rain are dying, normally we would be getting 3 hours of rain a day now we don't get that in a month. The reservoir for household use in my village has sunk 3 meters and it goes down every day.

[worgeordie]

The Government will spring into action when there is none or little water left,

why try and solve a problem before it occurs !,if it does not start raining soon,

and i mean pissing down for days,not the 30 minutes then stopping that has

been happening infrequently the last couple of months,then there's going to

be a huge problem,not just for the farmers ,but for everyone.

 

regards worgeordie

[madmen]

18 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

If there is none or it is very expensive, what then? 

revolution'

civil war

farang burned at the stake condos confiscated

 

Seriously what's with all the what if threads? I'm about to post one asking if my auntie grew balls would she be my uncle?

[GreasyFingers]

20 hours ago, Denim said:

Plenty of rain in Petchabun. Had a few mega storms already. My re dug drainage channel now meanders through my new rock garden. A microscopic Colorado river running through an equally microscopic grand canyon. Very absorbing, especially if high or pissed.

Well up here it has not rained for over a week, and the rain we had back then was after another week of no rain. the dry land rice is looking very sad. It will all die if no rain soon.

[GreasyFingers]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Yeah right, and now find a market for the alternative produce, an infrastructure or market for rice exists, what are the farmers supposed to do with 20 tons of runner beans ?

Don't you just love the city people that could not tell the difference between a rice and a hamburger.