Expats feeling the pinch as GBP sinks to an all time low against the THB

[soalbundy]

39 minutes ago, JayBird said:

Everyone might be gone after brexit

Only the best, the benefit drug swilling scroungers will stay

[Percy P]

7 minutes ago, sambum said:

Brits are at this moment in time Euro(pean) people! 

Is a cow born in a stable is not a horse.

English, Irish Scottish and Welsh people are British no connection with Europe except that were white skinned .

[Caldera]

Boris hasn't even worked his magic yet, he's just warming up. I'm sure 35 is within reach within a few short months.

[Thaidream]

These rates are simply absurd for  the pound; Euro' Aussie and Dollar.

 

There is no way the Thai economic situation would justify such exchange rates and unless the Central Bank acts immediatly- I am quite suspicious that there is a hidden agenda stopping them from doing whate is logical. Why would any country stand by and see it's export industry devasted?

 

The central bank needs to lower interest  rates immediatly; intervene in the currency market; place capital controls on  'hot' money. If they do nothing- the number of tourists will decline; expats will leave and the Thai export market will be devasted and Gdp decline.

 

The projections on the US Dollar and Pound to the Baht for 2020-2021 are horrid-  Some analysts are predicting  much deeper declines.  If this occurs- we'll be brewing our own beer and whiskey  and start bartering.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Caldera]

1 minute ago, Percy P said:

Is a cow born in a stable is not a horse.

English, Irish Scottish and Welsh people are British no connection with Europe except that were white skinned .

Sure, if you can ignore William the Conquerer, the Hanover clan and everyone in between, you would be right.

[Percy P]

21 minutes ago, nauseus said:

This topic lead line is misleading. The pound is not at an all time low. Within the last 40 years the Baht has been as low as 30 (28 for a day in 1985) and as high as 90 (91 for a day in 1998) to the Pound. 

When I first came 40 years ago it was 45B/£. $ 25B/$

[Rimmer]

Some off topic posts removed

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

Currency exchange rates are just half the picture. Look at what's going on with interest rates.

 

If 500K in your home currency used to yield 4% in fixed income and now only yields 1%, that's a 15,000 lower pre-tax return per year and 150,000 lower return over 10 years. That's having an even bigger impact on standards of living than falling currency exchange rates.

Exactly, but for more-or-less fixed retirement pensions it's mainly, if not only, the currency exchange rate, which for us continental Europens has decreased the pension-value by some 25% within the last few years.

 

When I moved to LoS in 2006-2007 I could get 6% in legally tax-free interest from secured bonds in my home country, now one feel lucky with 1.5%, or just 1%. Staying in secure bonds means a loss of 75%, or more, of ones income, and with currency exchange rate loss of 25% on top, then it's less than 20% of what-once-was that is now available here...????

 

How many can afford to loose 80% or more of their salary?

There more risky stock market is the only option to keep a reasonable income with dividends from one's savings, but still hard to keep something like 4% after tax – even when using double taxation agreements – and without risk of loosing some of one's savings; however, in sunshine and good tail-wind also "risk" of a potential gain.

 

I live from a mix of small government retirement pension, added up with some private pension – but lasting for a limited period only – and gain from my private savings. I can of course begin to use my saved capital, but then I might not be able to afford the longevity I've planned for, simply running out of funds too early. But even after I changed all bonds to dividend paying stocks, I have less total outcome now; in average I'm almost 50% down in monthly "salary" after exchange to Thai baht. I presume a number of expats are in the same situation...????

 

I'm dreaming of the good old days when I would withdraw the maximum 25k baht from the ATM, and just stick the money-notes in my breast-pocket, not worrying too much, because I could just withdraw another 25k...????????

Wake-up call, because now 5k and 10k baht seems like small fortunes that need to last..

I presume that I'm not that "handsum" anymore...

[Tops]

My father's bank in Holland made a mistake due to computer problems. My father transferred €1,000.- to my account for my son's holiday. The bank had their computers and servers updated and automaticly transferred the €1,000.- again to my banking account at Bangkok Bank a day later. First time I received 34,848 THB and a day later I received 34,165 THB. More than 100.000 people in Holland were effected with this. My father had to get his money back himself but just said that I could keep it. In the same week ABN AMRO had a court order for thousands of people to transfer the money back within 20 days or prosecution would follow as the money belonged to the bank. They still haven't refunded my father yet.

 

The Dutch Embassy contacted me several weeks ago and told me that I had to return the money before July 23rd, 2019 or their would be an international arrest warrant following this up as it would have been theft from a Dutch bank. So.... I had to go to the Dutch Embassy to pick up the court order.

 

I went to the Bangkok Bank and told them that the transaction of 34,165 THB had to be returned to the sender. Not possible, you need license was their answer. "The Bank of Thailand requires every commercial bank to obtain documents from customers outlining the reasons for sending the funds abroad before completing the transaction. For example, you may need to provide an invoice if you make a funds transfer to pay for goods or services.

If you are foreigner, you will need to bring a document declaring the source of your income (e.g. certification of salary) to complete your overseas funds transfer."

 

I had to have the court order translated in to English and from English to Thai language and had this legalised before I could file the request. Getting a document from the BoT took me over 2 weeks. Today Bangkok Bank received the documents and could transfer the money back to Holland. I had to fill out 21 forms and sign the English, Thai and the bottom of each page. I thought that I was done but early afternoon, I got a phone call from Bangkok Bank that I had to pass by today before 3 PM to sign addional documents. So I went back. Another 4 papers needed my signature, in English, Thai and on every bottom of the page. 

 

It really is that they don't want to transfer any money abroad. The Thai Baht is heavy manipulated. 

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, Jonnapat said:

You know that thing called cloud cuckoo land? 

That's where the poster who calls himself a currency trader is living.

It would take some miracle for sterling to ever be at 56/58 again and where's that miracle coming from?

IF you look at forex history and currency fluctuations you can see this would be no miracle. Say the Pound was merely to return to its late 2015 level against the USD and that the Baht were to slide back to its late 2015 level against the USD then you would get 55 Baht for the Pound.  

[soalbundy]

Just now, Percy P said:

Is a cow born in a stable is not a horse.

English, Irish Scottish and Welsh people are British no connection with Europe except that were white skinned .

were white skinned ? what colour are they now?

IS a cow born in a stable IS not a horse ! ! !

I understand now that your "education" leads you to believe that the UK isn't genetically, culturally and geographically connected to the continent of Europe. 

[TPI]

9 minutes ago, TKDfella said:

I think I mentioned my position a while back but just in case; I retired early so I don't get a full UK gov. pension; I took a partial lump sum on my company pension so I don't receive 100% on that either. This month total Thai Baht received just scraped 40K. Since I rent a place and on my own I'm okay but there is no way I can even think about a girlfriend (divorced from Thai wife). But with the GBP slump what concerns me is that if Thai immigration make an increase in financial requirements (I use 800K method)...you know, 'it never rains but it pours' situation. As far as the Brexit situation is concerned not much we can do about it. There are probably expats out there worse off than me, maybe medical problems etc., and I feel for them.

Beware - Some OP's on TV are death on people who came here in the past and qualified at that time, their rant is predicated on the fact that you have failed to increase your assets in line with the requirements of the Thai government! They, on the other hand, deplore these "pensioners" who didn't have the foresight to put away 400 - 800k in anticipation of the changes to the requirements! These OP's know who they are, don't you fellows? 

[Snow Leopard]

Coup d'état needed along with some protesting. 

[maddermax]

I can remember when it was Baht 70 to the GBP. But then again, I'm an old fart!

[Snow Leopard]

4 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Sure, if you can ignore William the Conquerer, the Hanover clan and everyone in between, you would be right.

You are talking a handful of people. Not a nation. 

[ukrules]

I'm glad I transferred a couple of million Baht to Thailand a few months ago, this will last me for some time to come.

[fordguy61mi]

5 hours ago, PremiumLane said:

What you get when the nation (UK) gets hoodwinked and taken over by a bunch of right wing lunatics, who have no idea what they are doing and rely solely on hyperbole, bluster and outright bs

Not near as bad as if left wing lunatics took it over. The UK will be far ahead in the long run getting out of the EU even with a no deal brexit, just on immigration policy alone! The UK needed Boris, just like the US needed Trump to keep sovereignty whole and the libtards at bay.

[MarkyM3]

1 minute ago, dunroaming said:

Yes I know.  I continue to do business in Thailand even though I don't live there anymore, so I am painfully aware of the exchange rate.

Work in London but visiting Thailand since 2005 and living in Bangkok for the last 4 years for 1/3 of the year (Thai fiance) so feeling it too . One reason I usually have to comment when people say it's still a cheap place to live in for expats. 

 

The uncertainty is killing the £ as much as anything at the moment imo. I do not feel this is a new long-term situation but feel very sorry for people living on fixed incomes under these circs. It wasn't unreasonable to base retirement around 50 or so baht to the £ based on the last 10-15 trend. Using 70s as a benchmark was always going to be a bit of a leap of faith I think.

[peterb17]

19 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

When most people look at retiring to another country they work out their budget before committing.  They assess living costs and base it on the exchange rate for that country at the time.  There is always a risk of fluctuation in the currency and common sense tells you to build in some leeway.  Also when you live somewhere your circumstances often change, especially if you then form a relationship.

 

Unfortunately many people do not have a plan B.

My reply was even by Western standards- £30000 is a considerable sum to many retirees- which is the context of this thread - not all of us spend their time pouring over spread sheets - looking for the latest investment opportunities ( probably taking advantage of the poorest on the planet, stripping out rain forests, looking for the latest in climate change crap, investing in very profitable companies who almost slaves sewing garments to feed the demands of the shareholders - let’s not get talking about the Chinese and their Investments who are totally destroying the environment in Laos. ) 

 

The corporations and China are ripping out the heart of SE Asia 

 

The ordinary people - the 1% like yourself - become more smug and richer .

[TPI]

How else are they going to pay for their second submarine, they need to keep the Baht as high as they can!

[Isaan sailor]

Change the name of this country, please.  From Thialand to Chiland for governments bilateral deals with the ChiComs.  Paradise lost for sure.

[fordguy61mi]

5 hours ago, Xaos said:

Brits still thinks european immigrants will be gone after brexit. 

Of course they won’t be gone, but it will stem the flow of unlimited migration that would ultimately ruin the country, not unlike what the US is experiencing. Keeping liberals out of office is the key to maintaining sovereignty of any country.

[cerox]

9 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

If they do nothing- the number of tourists will decline; expats will leave and the Thai export market will be devasted and Gdp decline.

I totally agree with you about your points. Unfortunately they do not care. I am always wondering whether Immigration will throw me out first or the THB.

[ujayujay]

Dont worry, Boris the Clown will make it much more worse.

[fordguy61mi]

4 hours ago, Geordie59 said:

The sooner Britain gets out of the EU the better. The uncertainty and scaremongering will be seen for what they and the £ will return to higher levels.

Here here! You’re right.

[brewsterbudgen]

Dont worry, Boris the Clown will make it much more worse.

Indeed. But if he ends up having to compromise or extend Article 50, watch the £ rise. And if it seems revocation or a 2nd Referendum is on the cards, watch it soar. Be positive!

Sent from my SM-G930F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[BuddyPish]

5 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

These rates are simply absurd for  the pound; Euro' Aussie and Dollar.

 

There is no way the Thai economic situation would justify such exchange rates and unless the Central Bank acts immediatly- I am quite suspicious that there is a hidden agenda stopping them from doing whate is logical. Why would any country stand by and see it's export industry devasted?

 

The central bank needs to lower interest  rates immediatly; intervene in the currency market; place capital controls on  'hot' money. If they do nothing- the number of tourists will decline; expats will leave and the Thai export market will be devasted and Gdp decline.

 

The projections on the US Dollar and Pound to the Baht for 2020-2021 are horrid-  Some analysts are predicting  much deeper declines.  If this occurs- we'll be brewing our own beer and whiskey  and start bartering.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It may seem "logical" to you because you've grown accustomed to Western central banks cutting rates and weakening currencies at times like this.

Well, ask yourself, where did those policies get Britain?

It's precisely because of what the Bank of England did - hundreds of billions in QE and near zero interest rates - that the pound dropped from 72 to 54 .

Outside of the banks, who actually benefited?

Did Britain become an "exporting powerhouse" selling loads of stuff all over the world as a result?

 

No, the Thai central bank doesn't need to do a damn thing.

It doesn't set monetary policy to help low income foreigners or lure cheap charlie tourists - it sets monetary policy to benefit Thailand.

They're more concerned about household indebtedness than they are about a few million less tourists.

They can recover tourists easily - they can't build a new banking system easily.

Slow and steady, Bank of Thailand, slow and steady

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, thirdleg said:

Ignorance is bliss

In your case clearly so. The Baht is in demand simply because currently its a safe haven.

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, dave moir said:

IMO the baht is being kept strong by the banks so as to be able to purchase submarines tanks planes etc on the cheap from other countries! 

You do realize that Thailand now controls the USD and every other currency in the world and of course Brexit has noting to do with it.  ????????????

[Thaidream]

10 minutes ago, nauseus said:

F you look at forex history and currency fluctuations you can see this would be no miracle. Say the Pound was merely to return to its late 2015 level against the USD and that the Baht were to slide back to its late 2015 level against the USD then you would get 55 Baht for the Pound.

I would be interested in what would be the driving force behind such a thing and  what level do you see the US Dollar-Baht level while this is going on.  IMO a Brexit deal will help the Pound and Dollar and Euro but  unless Thailand  allows it's central bank independence- it can only get worse.  The Thai Central bank is doing nothing  to help /