Expats feeling the pinch as GBP sinks to an all time low against the THB

[sawadee1947]

1 minute ago, Andrew65 said:

Are you sure that Dublin could afford to finance Ulster? I think London sends around £10 billion to Ulster per annum.

 

Also, could Scotland really survive on it's own?

 

Maybe Brussels could stump-up some billions?

And your point of recovery of Pound is..... What? Because that was the question. You are good in using that silly speach by Boris? 

[BuddyPish]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Bank of Thailand keeps high interest rates, to continue attracting foreign hot money.  And it looks like many share the hot money spoils.  They promised to help—but it didn’t work. Say adios to tourism and exports, BoT.

1.75% is "high interest rates"???

The hot money isn't coming for the interest rates, its coming for the appreciation against other currencies.

 

[marcusarelus]

30 minutes ago, Snow Leopard said:

Fair enough. You have your opinion, I have mine. The world is a different place since 2004. 

What I was saying the Brits on TV have been predicting the fall of the USD as long as I've been here.  Hasn't happened in fact the dollar has done nothing except gain on the pound.  Maybe time to re evaluate your thinking as you have been wrong since the beginning of WWII. 

[thirdleg]

4 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

Every currency is backed by virtually nothing .   In 2008- the World economy came close to a total meltdown until the US, UK, Japan, the EU and Australia stepped in with a massive package to steady markets.

 

Actually- the US is in a pretty good position- it is not dependent on foreign oil nor food and could survive a depression and meltdown quite easily.  Actually, Thailand could also since a majority of people grow rice and vegatables and their food needs would be met.

 

You might want to consider investing in farmland if you believe the World economy will meltdown since you will need to have access to food. Luckily, my  Thai family has plenty of it.

Britain could go with this approach, not sure why they haven't already.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/

 

[terryofcrete]

Has someone lost the key to Jenny’s Room ? 

[mrfill]

10 minutes ago, Andrew65 said:

Are you sure that Dublin could afford to finance Ulster? I think London sends around £10 billion to Ulster per annum.

 

Also, could Scotland really survive on it's own?

 

Maybe Brussels could stump-up some billions?

Ireland are doing quite well actually if you look at the facts. 8.2% growth is better than most.   

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-gdp/irish-gdp-makes-strong-start-to-2019-2018-growth-revised-up-to-8-2-idUKKCN1U619F

[MarkyM3]

13 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

And your point of recovery of Pound is..... What? Because that was the question. You are good in using that silly speach by Boris? 

He was responding to your off-the-wall comments I think....

 

Scotland - receives around £3k per person net public spend financed from England. Encapsulated in the Barnett formula which even the civil servant who drew it up as a temporary fudge in the late 70s says is unfair. 

 

You also conveniently forget that Spain would veto any attempt by a devolved country to get into the EU due to the Catalan independence issue.....

 

Ireland - how on earth do you think you are going to have a united Ireland? Politics aside, RoI does not need the moneypit that would become. 

 

You also mentioned UK would be a small island begging to be let back in. That would be world's 6th largest economy and one of the relatively few net contributors to the EU budget....

[BuddyPish]

1 hour ago, Thaidream said:

The tourist industry  generates approx 20% of GDP and the  Export  sector  around 39% and thus employs huge numbers of people and thousands of small businesses.

 

While I agree household debt in Thailand is huge that is because  many people are poor and  the banks are allowing loans to people who cannot afford them to pump up the  economy and articicially manipulating the Thai Baht  due to inaction.  

 

The whole smoke and mirrors scheme will collapse once GDP declines; businesses go broke and unemployment hits the tourist and export sector and inflation starts to bite.

 

The Thai Central Bank doesn't need to interven to assist expats - it needs to intervene to assist Thais.

 

 

 

Yeah well cutting interest rates and adding inflation and more debt to the mix isn't going to achieve that.
The baht is not being artificially manipulated by inaction - the central bank doesn't need to act yet. It can afford to wait and see.
The sense of urgency seems to be coming from those with skin in the game but their needs must be balanced against the needs of others.

Better to hold where it is - the Bank of Thailand can tolerate a few more months of lower exports and high season should bring some respite for tourism.

Knee-jerk reactions from the central bank are the last thing the country needs.

[Andrew65]

7 minutes ago, mrfill said:

Ireland are doing quite well actually if you look at the facts. 8.2% growth is better than most.   

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ireland-economy-gdp/irish-gdp-makes-strong-start-to-2019-2018-growth-revised-up-to-8-2-idUKKCN1U619F

If you take Apple, Google etc out of Ireland's GDP, it ain't doing that well.

Also, will Dublin be good for the £10 billion or so it costs to run Ulster?

[Parsve]

4 hours ago, tracy3eyes said:

Agree. Too many on TV listening to the exaggerated bollax about the BREXIT end of the world BS! The longer term it will be better for the UK and Expats! Much will be business as usual because supply chains don't get changed so easy and it is corporate suicide to change your long standing supply chain! Just like when Cola changed its recipe and lost 20% market share.

Yes there will be issues but with contingency planning in place they can be managed. 

The EU is just a protectionist zone where sustained growth across nation states is impossible because all the members in the club are different in so many ways, be that culture, population, GDP, skills, industries, incomes, wealth, poverty, Oh and the big one DEBT, one could go on! When the EU goes down you don't want to be in it!!!!!!!!

I start by stating that your statement to the EU is a protectionist, which of course it is, and the EU's tasks are merely to improve the conditions for producers in the EU. If we assume this is where the UK stands and after an exit, especially if it is outside one is willing to pay for their part of the divorce costs. Why would the EU give the UK companies more generous or the same conditions as the companies in the Union? I would also like to know which products are manufactured in the UK and where the EU is dependent. The truth is that the UK is much more dependent on the EU than on the contrary. This means greater difficulties for UK companies selling their products and what they can do is either lower the price of export goods so that they come in parity with those manufactured in the EU, but at the same time have less profitability and probably do. reorganize and dismiss employees. The other option companies have to relocate, or alternatively start manufacturing in the EU as well, which may mean that they retain their market share, but are still dismissive personally in the UK. These are the big problems, then there are the small ones, which, for example, UK citizens will no longer be able to move freely / workers within the EU. Then of course you can sit on your little Great island and think that you are the best in the world and can manage yourself if you want.

[Jack P]

Western states just can’t resist buying the public’s favour with ever more gibmedats paid for largely by inflationary money creation that future generations of tax payers will somehow have to repay.

[MarkyM3]

9 minutes ago, Parsve said:

I start by stating that your statement to the EU is a protectionist, which of course it is, and the EU's tasks are merely to improve the conditions for producers in the EU. If we assume this is where the UK stands and after an exit, especially if it is outside one is willing to pay for their part of the divorce costs. Why would the EU give the UK companies more generous or the same conditions as the companies in the Union? I would also like to know which products are manufactured in the UK and where the EU is dependent. The truth is that the UK is much more dependent on the EU than on the contrary. This means greater difficulties for UK companies selling their products and what they can do is either lower the price of export goods so that they come in parity with those manufactured in the EU, but at the same time have less profitability and probably do. reorganize and dismiss employees. The other option companies have to relocate, or alternatively start manufacturing in the EU as well, which may mean that they retain their market share, but are still dismissive personally in the UK. These are the big problems, then there are the small ones, which, for example, UK citizens will no longer be able to move freely / workers within the EU. Then of course you can sit on your little Great island and think that you are the best in the world and can manage yourself if you want.

UK imports more from EU than it exports to the EU so how are we more dependent on the EU? 

UK is one of the few significant net contributors to the EU budget. 

 

Free movement - why would the UK give free movement to EU citizens if not reciprocated? 

 

I might go on

[david555]

Not knowing if reported already , but look the in red line down article

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/30/pound-sterling-no-deal-brexit-dollar-euro-boris-johnson

 

The pound has faced renewed selling pressure amid rising fears that Boris Johnson could walk Britain out of the EU without a deal, raising the prospect of rising prices for consumers and hitting holidaymakers in the pocket.

Sterling continued to slide on the foreign exchanges on Tuesday after tumbling the most in a single day since November on Monday, taking the currency to the lowest level for 28 months.

The pound was down by 0.5% against the US dollar and the euro on Tuesday as the selling continued overnight on Asian markets and into the morning session in London. The currency was trading at $1.2153 and €1.0905 on the money markets but there were reports of sterling being offered at parity with the euro at bureaux de change at major airports.

[Thaidream]

14 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

And your point of recovery of Pound is..... What? Because that was the question. You are good in using that silly speach by Boris

The problem with the UK is that there are many  in the UK Parliament who refuse to accept the fact that the UK is leaving the EU and they are doing everything possible to  delay the inevitable. Some have forgotten that the majority vote was to leave the EU.

 

Boris is talking about a hard exit because he wants to force the EU to renegotiate on some points and also tell the delayers in the UK Parlaiment- that stay is not an option.

 

I am not British so while I dot have any skin in the game per se- everyone should want a strong UK economy and a stronger Pound.  Right now , the markets don't like the confusion and uncertainty.  Take away the unceretainty and the pound should come back .

[Basil B]

5 hours ago, thirdleg said:

Car problems everywhere, Germany has huge problems

Once the EU breaks up then all those billions and billions of Euros sitting in German banks will be converted to marks. Then their currency will appreciate astronomically and their export driven economy will tank

But car makers are citing Brexit, and anyone who thinks a no deal brexit is not going to have a detrimental effect on the British car industry is living in cloud cuckoo land.  

[Baerboxer]

7 hours ago, shackleton said:

I have already mentioned before about Brexit  not going to be a good thing  for the UK

especially the exchange rate for expats here ( Pensions ect )  in Thailand and else where 

The people of the UK voted  to come out of the EU

Boris has promised to get us out by the 31st October with a deal or no deal

expect worse for the pound sterling in the near future 

 

 

It's the on-going uncertainty and lack of clear direction doing the damage at the moment.

 

Parliament has already made it clear they won't allow a no-deal Brexit. Boris says if there's no-deal by 31/10 then the UK will leave and by default with no-deal. Unclear.

 

If, as threatened, parliament brings down the Johnson government, rather than allow a no-deal Brexit they'll have to be a GE. Unclear.

 

But the time isn't there to bring down the government, hold an election, install a new government and implement the new government's policy. Would the UK government therefore request another extension? If so would it be granted? Or is crashing out more likely? Unclear.

 

If a GE it could be Tories and Farage plc v Labor, LibDems and minor parties. Leave v Remain all over again. Would there be a majority government or a hung parliament forcing coalitions? Unclear.

 

Markets hate all these things being so unclear. Especially Forex ones.

 

Meanwhile off to ponder how I can manage my budgets. 50k GBP used to be worth 2.5 million ThB not so long ago; then 2 million and now somewhere around 1.875 million. They are big % differences to swallow. And no prospect of improving anytime on the short, medium or long term horizon.

 

I suggest there is more chance of the baht weakening than the pound strengthening per se,.

[sawadee1947]

14 minutes ago, MarkyM3 said:

6th largest

Only at present...... after some years probably got the red lantern.... 

[sambum]

2 hours ago, Percy P said:

Is a cow born in a stable is not a horse.

English, Irish Scottish and Welsh people are British no connection with Europe except that were white skinned .

Did you study Geography once at school? You should have gone more often!

 

This is a map of Europe, and as far as I know they haven't moved the UK or Ireland yet!

[marcusarelus]

22 minutes ago, thirdleg said:

Britain could go with this approach, not sure why they haven't already.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_producing_countries_of_agricultural_commodities

[thirdleg]

14 minutes ago, Andrew65 said:

If you take Apple, Google etc out of Ireland's GDP, it ain't doing that well.

Also, will Dublin be good for the £10 billion or so it costs to run Ulster?

Britain will undercut them in a second if they carry on like they have been

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, Basil B said:

But car makers are citing Brexit, and anyone who thinks a no deal brexit is not going to have a detrimental effect on the British car industry is living in cloud cuckoo land.  

 

No no. Project fear. The government have a cunning plan to start up a new British car industry, along with motor cycles, shipbuilding, plane making, advanced electronics, etc etc etc.

 

All to be owned and funded by rich Tories and based on the new no minimum wage, no maximum hours and scrapping all those silly Health and Safety and Workers' Rights laws.

 

Back to the good old days!

[sawadee1947]

5 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

Take away the unceretainty and the pound should come back .

Well, uncertainty could be easily removed by giving up the plan to leave as EU will not re-negotiate the deal including the backstop. 

[fvw53]

6 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

Seems to me that the so-called 'United' Kingdom is about to come totally unhinged/disunited. Scotland, gone at the first chance for a referendum. Ireland...interesting to see if they'll finally unify because of this stupidity. Boris, Nigel, et al, <deleted> scum. As bad as the EU is/might be, it's better than what those clowns have in store, which they're making up as they go. They have no plan whatsoever beyond kicking their heels and screaming out, out, out.

We will remember the words of Kenneth Clarke now the oldest MP in the UK parliament....who was a cabinet member already under Margaret Thatcher.

Clarke is  described by the press as a 'Big Beast' of British politics, has served in the Cabinet as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Education Secretary, Health Secretary and minister without portfolio. 

QUOTE
Clarke : There was always a group of nationalists in the Tory party that didn't come to terms with our changed role in the world. In their eyes we have an imperial destiny. But that was fading away and we were becoming a rather pro-European party in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher. Remember, it was us who had to persuade the Germans and French of the single market.
UNQUOTE
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-kenneth-clarke-on-brexit-a-1252188.html

[Andrew65]

1 minute ago, thirdleg said:

Britain will undercut them in a second if they carry on like they have been

Yes, you're right.

 

The presence of those companies distorts Ireland's true GDP.

 

Also, a no-deal scenario, as we all know, will have serious consequences for Eire.

 

As someone else mentioned, it's the current uncertainty that roils the markets.

[Basil B]

3 minutes ago, sambum said:

Did you study Geography once at school? You should have gone more often!

 

This is a map of Europe, and as far as I know they haven't moved the UK or Ireland yet!

Some with the mentality of King Canute are trying... 

[marcusarelus]

3 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

I suggest there is more chance of the baht weakening than the pound strengthening per se,.

The baht has no economic connection to the pound as neither currencies are managed.  I've seen no reasonable projections that the pound will strengthen within the next 10 years.

[Andrew65]

1 minute ago, fvw53 said:

We will remember the words of Kenneth Clarke now the oldest MP in the UK parliament....who was a cabinet member already under Margaret Thatcher.

Clarke is  described by the press as a 'Big Beast' of British politics, has served in the Cabinet as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Education Secretary, Health Secretary and minister without portfolio. 

QUOTE
Clarke : There was always a group of nationalists in the Tory party that didn't come to terms with our changed role in the world. In their eyes we have an imperial destiny. But that was fading away and we were becoming a rather pro-European party in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher. Remember, it was us who had to persuade the Germans and French of the single market.
UNQUOTE
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-kenneth-clarke-on-brexit-a-1252188.html

Big Ken is no doubt doing what British American Tobacco is paying him to do. In fact they were also paying him whilst he was Secretary of State for Health!

 

[Snow Leopard]

22 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

What I was saying the Brits on TV have been predicting the fall of the USD as long as I've been here.  Hasn't happened in fact the dollar has done nothing except gain on the pound.  Maybe time to re evaluate your thinking as you have been wrong since the beginning of WWII. 

The US$ will be the last to go for sure. It will eat every other currency along the way. But go it will. Bread and Circus plus War. Inevitable. The Derivatives and Debt will get it in the end. The US had a Ferrari backed by Gold and subsequently turned it into a Tuk-Tuk by sheer greed. 

 

[JemJem]

Let's see if BoJo can reverse this downward voyage of the pound. The chances of this ain't looking great, I guess. As of now anyway.

[whitemouse]

2 hours ago, britishrepublican said:

As a currency trader, I expect the pound to fall dramatically in the 2-3 days after the 31st. Once the initial panic passes I expect common sense to prevail and the pound will recover to pre referendum rates within a year. 56-58 baht.

 

It's worth the short term pain in the long run.

 

I play stock market, and here is my prediction - Sterling will keep falling, as there is no where else for it to go. Johnson will not back down from his demands of EU, EU will not change the course (there is zero interest in Brussels to help Johnson), by Oct, possibly late September Sterling is at 24 THB.

 

After Oct 31st, what you called initial panic, UK's economy enters recession, possibly depression, Sterling will not recover, remains weak, and likely weakens further. UK recession will last years, this is NOT short term pain. UK's economy will likely not recover for decade.

 

You said It's worth the short term pain in the long run. What are the benefits of this planned, deliberate catastrophe?