Scots favour independence from United Kingdom, Ashcroft poll shows

By Guy Faulconbridge, Michael Holden

 

The Scottish Saltire flag flies next to the British Union Jack flag with the London Eye wheel seen behind in London, Britain July 29, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Scottish voters would back independence and they want another referendum in the next two years, a poll published on Monday showed, indicating that the United Kingdom could be wrenched apart shortly after it leaves the European Union.

 

Asked how they would vote in an independence referendum, 46% of the 1,019 surveyed Scottish voters said they would vote for independence and 43% said they would vote against, according to a poll by Michael Ashcroft.

 

Excluding those who said they did not know or would not vote, this amounted to 52% to 48% for an independent Scotland.

 

“I found a small majority in favour of a new vote – and the first lead for an independent Scotland for more than two years,” Ashcroft, a Conservative who opposed Boris Johnson’s successful bid to be prime minister, said.

 

Johnson, who took over from Theresa May last month and is unpopular in Scotland, was booed as he entered a meeting last week with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon who is demanding London agree to another referendum.

 

The poll is the first lead for Scottish independence in a published poll since an Ipsos MORI survey in March 2017, and the biggest lead since a spate of polls in June 2016, shortly after the EU referendum, Ashcroft said.

 

If there was another referendum and if Scots voted out, it would mark the biggest shock to the United Kingdom since Irish independence a century ago - just as London grapples with the fallout of a possible no-deal Brexit.

 

DISUNITED KINGDOM

 

Scots rejected independence by 55 to 45 percent in a 2014 referendum but a three-year political crisis in London and differences over Brexit have strained the bonds that tie the United Kingdom together.

 

The United Kingdom as whole voted 52-48 to leave the EU in a 2016 referendum: England and Wales voted to leave but Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay.

 

Irish nationalists have demanded moves towards Irish unification in response to Johnson’s threat of a no-deal Brexit.

 

The nations of Britain have shared the same monarch since James VI of Scotland became James I of England in 1603 and a formal union created the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

 

Today, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland includes England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

 

INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND?

 

One third of Labour Party voters, a majority of those who voted to stay in the European Union in 2016 and 18% of those who voted against independence last time said they would vote for independence, Ashcroft’s poll showed.

 

A majority of Scottish voters up to the age of 49 said they would vote for independence, including 62% of those aged 18 to 24, Ashcroft said.

 

Scottish independence would thrust the rest of the United Kingdom and the newly independent Scotland into talks on how to carve up North Sea oil revenues, what currency Scotland would use, and the fate of Britain’s main nuclear submarine base at Faslane near Glasgow.

 

The Scottish National Party (SNP), which runs the devolved government in Edinburgh, says that a second independence referendum is justified as Scotland is now being dragged out of the bloc against its will.

 

But British prime ministers since David Cameron, who agreed to and won the 2014 Scottish referendum, have repeatedly ruled out another referendum on Scottish independence, saying the 2014 vote was cast a once-in-a-generation vote.

 

Johnson said last week while on a visit to Scotland that the independence vote was a once in a generation event but a constitutional crisis could be looming over who has the right to allow another referendum - Holyrood or Westminster.

 

Seeking to tap into a cocktail of historical rivalry, opposing political tastes, and a perception that London has mismanaged Scotland for decades, nationalists say an independent Scotland could build a wealthier and fairer country.

 

“Attempts by the Tories to block Scotland’s right to choose our own future are undemocratic and unsustainable,” Sturgeon said in response to the poll.

 

Unionists say independence would needlessly break up the United Kingdom, cast a vulnerable Scotland into the high seas of global politics and usher in years of financial, economic and political uncertainty.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-08-05

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"Unionists say independence would... cast a vulnerable Scotland into the high seas of global politics and usher in years of financial, economic and political uncertainty."

Whereas remaining in the UK will almost certainly guarantee that these predictions become reality.

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Once in a generation.  Yeh, right.  Keep asking until SNP get the answer they want.

Once in a generation.  Yeh, right.  Keep asking until SNP get the answer they want.

By how many percent would Yes need to be ahead before you would accept the will of the majority?

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First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

2 hours ago, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

Given the woeful Brexit mismanagement from London, were I a Scot I would be wanting to take my chances. Quite frankly I would cede "total control" to Brussels anyday. 

 

There may not be an EU in five years' time? I would rather gamble on there being no UK in five years' time. England may be keen to tie a bow around itself and sell itself to the American Republican Party, but don't expect the others in the UK to share that glee.

2 hours ago, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

- The situation has changed.  Neither you nor Westminster has a moral right to dictate to them.
- That will be their choice.

-says who? The Tories?
- Perhaps not, but you saying it doesn't make the case.
- They can just sell off their share of the UK military stock that they will no longer need.
- Not up to you or the English

- Polish up your crystal ball a bit more.

Lots of comments on here post and pre referendum about getting out of the EU before it falls apart ... and it’s looking increasingly more likely that the UK will fall apart. Scotland and Northern Ireland for sure if they press ahead with a no deal exit.

7 hours ago, Victornoir said:

46/43 it is a small majority, still within the margin of error.
It should be noted that Boris's shattering statements have their effect on both the pound and the unit.

????

Not only that, the sample was small at just over 1000 people. Huge margin of error.

40 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Because without the Scots you can't call it UK anymore

Yes we can, it's just Scotland won't be part of the UK. If the worse comes to worse and Ireland/Wales leave we could call ourselves....hmm....England.

40 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

Yes we can, it's just Scotland won't be part of the UK. If the worse comes to worse and Ireland/Wales leave we could call ourselves....hmm....England.

I must say  you are a clairvoyant what Bojo might bring if things turn sour....

18 minutes ago, david555 said:

I must say  you are a clairvoyant what Bojo might bring if things turn sour....

I am a clairvoyant and I'll tell you this for free. There is no WAY that the UK is leaving the EU without a deal and I truly believe we won't leave anyhow

 

1 hour ago, White Christmas13 said:

Because without the Scots you can't call it UK anymore

All I know is if California voluntarily offered to make itself its own country, Republicans would jump all over that deal because of the effect it would have on the composition of the House and Senate, not to mention the Electoral College implications. I have to think part of the reluctance is the sickness within the Conservative Party that allowed Theresa May to serve as PM for as long as she did. The Tories are spiritually bankrupt and many of them secretly fear overseeing a dominant majority in a Scot-less Parliament because they lack the self confidence to seize the initiative and lead. 

Bye bye Jocks.  Have fun trying to sell your natural gas in the world market...

 

Also, the exit of the Macs would be a bonus for all English speakers everywhere, since most of us proper speakers of the language can't understand a single blind word they utter.

 

 

Kind of can't blame the Scottish. Who'd want to be part of the current embarrassment that is UK politics. They're lucky to have Trump setting the bar so low, otherwise the current crop would look even worse ????

12 hours ago, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

During the last Independence campaign the politicians arguing to stay used the prospect of Scotland no longer being in the EU if they voted out as a main reason to vote to stay in. 

I like the idea that Scotland should pay outstanding debts while at the same time the UK is talking about not paying their debts if we leave the EU.

12 minutes ago, alanrchase said:

I like the idea that Scotland should pay outstanding debts while at the same time the UK is talking about not paying their debts if we leave the EU.

wrong, firstly it is well known that the figure is 9 billion, this is not a debt, it is the continued subscription for claimed commitments

 

Fiscal accounts are so bad in Brussels that nobody has any idea what is what

 

What Scotland owes is a weighted share of actual UK debt estimated to be about 50 billion

The rise and fall of the UK empire .... Like the Romans in their history . 

I am not from the UK but I follow the news and Brexit.

Somehow I get the idea that Boris and lots of other English people couldn't care less about NI and Scotland.

It seems if they would separate from the UK Boris and his supporters wouldn't miss them.

Is that correct in your opinion?

17 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Excluding those who said they did not know or would not vote, this amounted to 52% to 48% for an independent Scotland.

52-48 so contentious, I have said time and time again referendums need to be a clear majority, 2% swings can happen on a daily basis, unless there is a clear majority 60% or more then let it be as it was (status quo).  

1 hour ago, geoffbezoz said:

However please, please, never invade us again and steal our Wembley turf.

Was it Wembley? I recall a train going north with the turf from Villa Park.

35 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I am not from the UK but I follow the news and Brexit.

Somehow I get the idea that Boris and lots of other English people couldn't care less about NI and Scotland.

It seems if they would separate from the UK Boris and his supporters wouldn't miss them.

Is that correct in your opinion?

I believe you are right.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17713010.tory-party-members-would-rather-see-scotland-split-from-uk-than-brexit-fail/

29 minutes ago, Basil B said:

52-48 so contentious, I have said time and time again referendums need to be a clear majority, 2% swings can happen on a daily basis, unless there is a clear majority 60% or more then let it be as it was (status quo).  

I agree and have always said Cameron should have stated 5% clear majority or we don't do it - should be same for Scots.

Its also worth noting that a poll sample did not include 16-18 year olds and EU citizens resident in Scotland.

Both these groups would be entitled to a vote in the next independence referendum and both would likely be in favor of separation.

11 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

I agree and have always said Cameron should have stated 5% clear majority or we don't do it - should be same for Scots.

IndyRef1 was very close and Cameron recognised that by give the Scots more control to the Scottish devolved government.

 

Yet with the EU referendum the government instead of trying to seek more middle ground to acknowledge that nearly half the country wished to remain has in actually gone out of its way to spite nearly half the population instead.

Offensive remark post removed and responses to it.

52-48 so contentious, I have said time and time again referendums need to be a clear majority, 2% swings can happen on a daily basis, unless there is a clear majority 60% or more then let it be as it was (status quo).  

I agree with you; a super majority would be far more satisfactory an outcome. But bear in mind that the referendum hasn't been called yet. If so, I would hope that the final tally would be much more decisive.

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1 hour ago, Basil B said:

52-48 so contentious, I have said time and time again referendums need to be a clear majority, 2% swings can happen on a daily basis, unless there is a clear majority 60% or more then let it be as it was (status quo).  

Too late this time (can't change the rules after the event) but going forward I completely agree. Definitely need at least 60% in favour of re-entering after 31 October. In fact, let's make it 70%.

And of course a hard brexit followed by Scottish independence would result in a hard border between Scotland and England - that should be interesting.

And of course a hard brexit followed by Scottish independence would result in a hard border between Scotland and England - that should be interesting.

Apparently there is technology that can perform the function quite well...

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