Baht Forecast } 25 BHT to the £

[JonBreadMan]

from here

http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb

 

Why do they think a big drop in Oct, Just when I get back from the UK.... Is not Breakfarse end of Oct

 

and ending up at 25 BHT to the Pound

 

Pound To Baht Forecast 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 And 2023

Month	Open	Min-Max	Close	Total,%
2019
Aug	37.532	35.607-38.997	37.497	-0.1%
Sep	37.497	34.572-39.193	37.686	0.4%
Oct	37.686	34.889-37.797	36.343	-3.2%
Nov	36.343	34.136-36.980	35.558	-5.3%
Dec	35.558	32.674-35.558	34.035	-9.3%
2020
Jan	34.035	32.874-35.614	34.244	-8.8%
Feb	34.244	32.439-35.143	33.791	-10.0%
Mar	33.791	33.186-35.952	34.569	-7.9%
Apr	34.569	32.326-35.020	33.673	-10.3%
May	33.673	32.137-34.815	33.476	-10.8%
Jun	33.476	32.259-34.947	33.603	-10.5%
Jul	33.603	32.009-34.677	33.343	-11.2%
Aug	33.343	31.207-33.807	32.507	-13.4%
Sep	32.507	31.149-33.745	32.447	-13.5%
Oct	32.447	31.870-34.526	33.198	-11.5%
Nov	33.198	31.278-33.884	32.581	-13.2%
Dec	32.581	31.092-33.682	32.387	-13.7%
2021
Jan	32.387	31.373-33.987	32.680	-12.9%
Feb	32.680	30.539-33.083	31.811	-15.2%
Mar	31.811	30.930-33.508	32.219	-14.2%
Apr	32.219	30.776-33.340	32.058	-14.6%
May	32.058	30.782-33.348	32.065	-14.6%
Jun	32.065	30.438-32.974	31.706	-15.5%
Jul	31.706	31.663-34.301	32.982	-12.1%
Aug	32.982	30.887-33.461	32.174	-14.3%

 

 

Month	Open	Min-Max	Close	Total,%
2021 Continuation
Sep	32.174	30.751-33.313	32.032	-14.7%
Oct	32.032	30.992-33.574	32.283	-14.0%
Nov	32.283	30.344-32.872	31.608	-15.8%
Dec	31.608	31.534-34.162	32.848	-12.5%
2022
Jan	32.848	31.412-34.030	32.721	-12.8%
Feb	32.721	30.777-33.341	32.059	-14.6%
Mar	32.059	30.712-33.272	31.992	-14.8%
Apr	31.992	30.427-32.963	31.695	-15.6%
May	31.695	31.673-34.313	32.993	-12.1%
Jun	32.993	30.264-32.993	31.525	-16.0%
Jul	31.525	29.856-32.344	31.100	-17.1%
Aug	31.100	29.535-31.997	30.766	-18.0%
Sep	30.766	29.074-31.496	30.285	-19.3%
Oct	30.285	26.229-30.285	27.322	-27.2%
Nov	27.322	26.636-28.856	27.746	-26.1%
Dec	27.746	26.943-29.189	28.066	-25.2%
2023
Jan	28.066	27.403-29.687	28.545	-23.9%
Feb	28.545	26.694-28.918	27.806	-25.9%
Mar	27.806	25.579-27.806	26.645	-29.0%
Apr	26.645	25.203-27.303	26.253	-30.1%
May	26.253	24.731-26.791	25.761	-31.4%
Jun	25.761	24.688-26.746	25.717	-31.5%
Jul	25.717	24.709-26.769	25.739	-31.4%
Aug	25.739	24.842-26.912	25.877	-31.1%
Sep	25.877	25.588-27.720	26.654	-29.0%

[EricTh]

If you look at the trend during the last 5 years, it's quite plausible to drop that much in the next 5 years.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=5Y

Edited August 22, 2019 by EricTh

[Issannative]

I forecast 43 on sep 14

[NCC1701A]

they forecast a additional 31% drop by 3.5 years from now.

 

2023

Jun

25.761

24.688-26.746

25.717

-31.5%

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by NCC1701A

[mommysboy]

Have they been accurate in previous forecasts?

[swissie]

There is no Algorithm or any person born by a woman that can project the value of anything traded in open markets with such accuracy over a given time period.

As far as the £ is concerned, I will say this: There are a lot of "negatives" already priced into the £ in connection with "Brexit". But in case of a "no deal" Brexit, most likely the £ will weaken further.

This is the scenario currently expected within the "currency trading community".

- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets. This would be the time the £ has hit "rock-bottom", spiking up quickly.
It all depends of the "preparedness" of the Brits and how they fit into their "new world".
- A bad time to sell the £ at this time. But there are a lot of folks around (with cash in their hands) to buy the £ at "rock-bottom" price if there are indications that the Brits will be able to digest the Brexit within a reasonable time-frame. (I myself have a little cash in my hands to buy the £ if the time is right).

Strictly my personal assement of short term things to come. No idea where the £ will be 5 years from now. Neither does anyone else. With or without Algorithms. The Clairvoiant Gipsies from Romania all work for Goldman Sachs and live in NY.

[Traubert]

9 minutes ago, swissie said:

- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets.

I am a Brit and I can confidently advise you that the Brits couldn't prepare a <deleted> in a women's prison with a fistful of pardons. Dawn is a daily amazement to the British parliament. They are as thick as pudding.

[daveAustin]

That chart is tosh. It'll be way oversold (as now) after the brexit thing, and once people realise that it is not the end of the world and certainty, wait for the rebound. I would be more interested in the correction of the baht.

[RichardColeman]

If the baht/£ hits that low, I can safely predict there will be ZERO exports from Thailand to the UK

[Kinnock]

There's obviously two complex situations impacting on this - the UK and Thai economies, and as balance of payments are a big factor in the value of a currency, the Thai tourist numbers have a significant influence.

 

Brexit will run it's course, and nobody can accurately predict that.  But in Thailand it may be easier to predict. The major industries related to automotive and other manufacturing will decline due to increasing competition from Vietnam and other emerging countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, but as manufacturing involves two-way transactions (import of raw materials/export of products) the downward pressure on the Baht due to a shift in balance of payments will be minimal.  Domestic debt will rise and household spending will fall -but again minimal impact on the Baht, perhaps even a benefit due to reduced imports.  But tourism brings in foreign currency with minimal outflow, so any increase in tourism will directly strengthen the Baht.

 

So as the US/China trade war fades (after Trumps second term) and as the Indian economy continues to grow, Thai tourism will inevitably rise. (There's only so many places 2 billion people can go on holiday)

 

So the Baht will remain strong, the Pound will dip through the Brexit chaos with a long, slow recovery, and we'll all be long dead before the Pound recovers to a reasonable level.

 

So get used to the new reality and develop a liking for Mama noodles with no honey.

[sunnyboy2018]

After Brexit, when the uncertainty has diminished,  I expect the pound to recover not go down.

[shy coconut]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

If the baht/£ hits that low, I can safely predict there will be ZERO exports from Thailand to the UK

At the moment, most of the chicken products cooked and eaten in Wetherspoon's are processed

in Thailand, it will be interesting to see how long that remains.

 

[brokenbone]

britts out, good guys in

[abrahamzvi]

14 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

they forecast a additional 31% drop by 3.5 years from now.

 

2023

Jun

25.761

24.688-26.746

25.717

-31.5%

 

If a no deal Brexit takes place even this forecast is too optimistic....

[LennyW]

I predict over 40 by end of this year......i have as much chance of being right as that chart!!!

[soalbundy]

12 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

After Brexit, when the uncertainty has diminished,  I expect the pound to recover not go down.

You're not that vicar who predicted the rapture are you?

[soalbundy]

15 hours ago, Issannative said:

I forecast 43 on sep 14

and the second coming?

[grumpy 4680]

        If rate of exchange can be predicted that far ahead, then that means some are working to manipulate those figures.

[ehs818]

How can anyone project out almost 4 years and expect any accuracy.

Pick lottery numbers monthly here instead. Probably better odds of being right. Silly.

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, ehs818 said:

How can anyone project out almost 4 years and expect any accuracy.

Pick lottery numbers monthly here instead. Probably better odds of being right. Silly.

I would expect members who can predict with that degree of certainty to have gone out and bought currency futures to support their belief

[from the home of CC]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If the baht/£ hits that low, I can safely predict there will be ZERO exports from Thailand to the UK

and very few brit expats living here..

[Homburg]

49 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

and the second coming?

Soi 6. Knock 3 times and ask for Noi.

[Thingamabob]

Rubbish forecast. When Brexit is finally over, one way or another, the pound will reach around 45 baht by middle of next year, and will continue to strengthen thereafter.

[madmen]

10 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Rubbish forecast. When Brexit is finally over, one way or another, the pound will reach around 45 baht by middle of next year, and will continue to strengthen thereafter.

Well if that were true the pound would already be heading back up as brexit WILL be resolved one way or the other .

 

unfortunately the OP forecast is probably accurate

[Jonnapat]

A couple of days ago, after  the slightest hint that a deal might be possible, sterling rose by more than 1%, not a lot but shows to me that if a miracle of a delay to article 50 or an agreement on some kind of deal were possibly there would bd sn immediate jump in the value of the pound. 

Fingers crossed. 

[Krataiboy]

About as reliable a forecast as those emanating from climate change modellers of what the world's weather will look like half a century from now.

 

Were it humanly possible to accurately predict currency fluctuations, the world would be full of George Soroses (Heaven forbid).

[kevin612]

It will drop but not that deep. Who will do business with Thailand if their currency is skyrocketing 

[roobaa01]

i compared 10 currency cross pairs usd, aud, euro, yuan, nzd, ind, can, pounds, euros, swiss... to the baht

2019-2023 in all cross pairs on economics forecast came out thai baht the strongest currency, thats nonsense thailand would be broke.

 

wbrrooba01

[fvw53]

16 hours ago, swissie said:

There is no Algorithm or any person born by a woman that can project the value of anything traded in open markets with such accuracy over a given time period.

As far as the £ is concerned, I will say this: There are a lot of "negatives" already priced into the £ in connection with "Brexit". But in case of a "no deal" Brexit, most likely the £ will weaken further.

This is the scenario currently expected within the "currency trading community".

- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets. This would be the time the £ has hit "rock-bottom", spiking up quickly.
It all depends of the "preparedness" of the Brits and how they fit into their "new world".
- A bad time to sell the £ at this time. But there are a lot of folks around (with cash in their hands) to buy the £ at "rock-bottom" price if there are indications that the Brits will be able to digest the Brexit within a reasonable time-frame. (I myself have a little cash in my hands to buy the £ if the time is right).

Strictly my personal assement of short term things to come. No idea where the £ will be 5 years from now. Neither does anyone else. With or without Algorithms. The Clairvoiant Gipsies from Romania all work for Goldman Sachs and live in NY.

We can always ask George Soros ????

 

[kevinmartyn]

Well guess the cuties and there families are going to be starved if they are not already. I'm sure they are fully aware of the catastrophic downturn in their earnings!????????