Evidence from Saudi oil attack points to Iran, not Yemen - U.S. official

[Morch]

3 hours ago, Why Me said:

Er, because you are being threatened by the current US administration which is known to react to military capability (see Trump's sucking up of Kim) not rationality.

 

Not a very rational post.

 

How would baiting the USA improve things for Iran, with regard to a possible USA attack? How would taking up an inflammatory rhetoric help?

 

As for the NK situation, it could serve as an example that Trump's bark is worse than his bite.  

 

[tlandtday]

6 hours ago, Tug said:

Anything coming from the trump administration I take with a grain of salt sadly that’s what you get when you are a chronic lyre show us the proof and if it was Iran do you think they would have done it if (you) had honored the agreement that was in place?

it's not about trump it's about those who control the agenda... they are itching for war with Iran and they will get it one way or another and making up stories or blaming someone else is par for the course...

[Morch]

3 hours ago, fxe1200 said:

With the strong presence of the American Navy in the Persian Gulf, ten drones flown from Iran would have been detected, their flight path traced and the drones shot down. Therefore the Yanks must have been either asleep, or the drones took a different pass, from Israel, Yemen, or wherever.

 

I think you exaggerate drone tracking capabilities. It's a rather hot issue these days, plenty of room for improvement there. Same (but different) goes for cruise missiles.

 

Regardless, it would make more sense, from the attackers point of view, to minimize chances for detection and interception by avoiding areas saturated with radars, observations and such. Then there are the site's air de fences - which I'd assume would be more focused on "traditional" angles of attack.

 

 

[Mavideol]

my idea/opinion is that somebody profiting from oil price increase due to lack of production & availability may be behind the act, problem? many in the area fit that profile

[Morch]

3 hours ago, fvw53 said:

I would think that the air space between Iran and Saudi Arabia is so closely monitored that even a bird cannot cross it without being seen.  The Houthi's claim they did the attack....they are Shia Muslims which Prince MBS would like to wipe out and therefore Iranian sympathy and support for the Houthi's should not be a surprise (or have we forgotten the Catholic - Protestant religious war of 100 years which ended in 1648 ?)

 

I kinda doubt brotherly love is the main motivator of Iran's support for any Shia faction in the ME. More to do with political goals and interests. Many of these were initially religiously looked down upon - Syria's were considered not true Shia at some time, Lebanon's were made to go religious instruction in Iran. No reason to imagine things are different in this case.

Edited September 16, 2019 by Morch

[Morch]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Yes, and these would not have been detected?

 

Not necessarily. Not quite as easy as some imagine or claim.

The flip side of this attack is demonstrating the problem of defending against such.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, fxe1200 said:

With the strong presence of the American Navy in the Persian Gulf, ten drones flown from Iran would have been detected, their flight path traced and the drones shot down. Therefore the Yanks must have been either asleep, or the drones took a different pass, from Israel, Yemen, or wherever.

Why is it up to the US forces to detect and deal with this?

 

The Saudis have their own very well equipped military, let them deal with their own security and if they fail to do so put the blame where it belongs.

[Morch]

22 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Well, we don't see much from Iranian media, do we ?

Not that i fully trust any media from any country, but the good American people should accept the fact that not all people in the world are believing everything.

 

Again, what "we"? There's plenty of Iranian media commentary about. Granted, less accessible to most. And, of course, much of it government controlled, or if not, heavily censored. Comparing it with Western media is a choice.

 

I'm not the one alleging what whole nations, the world, or "we" believe or ought to believe.

[Morch]

19 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

it's not about trump it's about those who control the agenda... they are itching for war with Iran and they will get it one way or another and making up stories or blaming someone else is par for the course...

 

Who are these nefarious "they"?

 

[Chomper Higgot]

27 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

As in "forever"? As in with regard to any issue whatsoever? Does the same high standard apply all around?

Let’s see the US put their credibility to the test.

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Why is it up to the US forces to detect and deal with this?

 

The Saudis have their own very well equipped military, let them deal with their own security and if they fail to do so put the blame where it belongs.

 

Not a question of "up to". If a cruise missile was detected heading toward either USA naval forces or said facility they would have tried to either warn the Saudis or try to intercept it. That there was no warning and no interception is somewhat worrying given that similar attacks could be executed against different targets.

 

The systems used by Saudi Arabia are mostly of USA/Western origin. While not the top notch variations used by USA forces, it's still a thing if they fail to address threats. Could also be a personnel/training issue.

[Mavideol]

Trump warns the US is ‘locked and loaded’ after attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities

let's see what will happen,... mister big mouth criticized Obama for not doing anything while Vlad invaded Crimea and when Obama set a Red Line (dropping of chemical bombs) not to be trespassed by Syria and after they did Obama ignored it

 

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

Again, what "we"? There's plenty of Iranian media commentary about. Granted, less accessible to most. And, of course, much of it government controlled, or if not, heavily censored. Comparing it with Western media is a choice.

 

I'm not the one alleging what whole nations, the world, or "we" believe or ought to believe.

I can't speak for other posters, but personally "we" is people from countries who are allies, friends, and culturally similar to US.

Pardon my lack of naivety, but do you seriously think that a relatively small country like Iran has any interest to provoke a full-scale war against America and Israel and at least half of Europe ?

This incident makes me slightly suspicious, that's it.

[watcharacters]

5 hours ago, alfalfa19 said:

and we should blindly believe it because the US says so.  

 

 

Heck no.    Find out for yourself!

 

[Rimmer]

Multiple off topic, troll and conspiracy posts have been removed.

 

[Thaidream]

37 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

it's not about trump it's about those who control the agenda... they are itching for war with Iran and they will get it one way or another and making up stories or blaming someone else is par for the course...

 agree=  there is a deep state of neo cons within both the intelligency community and elsewhere that has not forgotten what Iran did to America during the Iranian Revolution and also Iran's involvement in the Iraq War.  These people want a war with Iran and they are the ones- with the help of Netanyu in Israel who want Iran destroyed.

 

There is a lot of difference between a cruise missle and a drone attack and US intelligence should be able to distinguish who and where they came from.   It may be that cooler heads will tell Trump the truth  and suggest he not fall into the war trap that  Netanayhu so wants especially since an Israeli election is this week.

 

A war between the US and Iran would be disastrous for the World economy- Since Iran is having problems with oil exports- they undoutedly would either block the Straits or  put out of commission the  Saudi oil industry for months causing oil prices to spike to $200 a barrell. The Middle East air space would be a no go zone causing major air disruption between Europe and Asia.   Remember Iran and Iraq fought an 8 year war with hundreds of thosands of casualties.

 

The only sane reaction-even if Iran is involved in this attack  would  be re=opening of US military bases in the Kingdom of SA which means a large deployment of US Aircraft and possibly ground forces. A massive strike on Iran  would be futile/ Trump needs to meet with the Iranian President at the United Nations this month and set the stage for some type of negotiation to end the sanctions and stop the Iranian nuclear and missle program. In addition- it's time for the Us to pressure the Saudis to settle the Yemen situation.

 

IMO- it is Trump and his Israeli collaborator  who coaxed Trump into breaking the US-Iran agreement and allow the Saudi's to wage war against Yemen  and it's Iranian backers in the mistaken belief that all this would force Iran to it's knees and  make  the Saudia Regime the premier power in the Middle East backed by the Americans. Trump is pliable and ignorant   but he now has the chanve to reject the  neo cons who want war and stay cool.

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, otherstuff1957 said:

Here is a google maps screenshot of Abqaiq.  The area to the lower right is the Aramco Plant.  Is that where the missiles struck?  (Remember that no casualties were reported.)  If so, 12 - 19 cruise missiles/drones flew over 1000 km and all hit their targets so precisely that they missed the residential areas about 1 km away.  Is this level of accuracy typical of N. Korean designed/Iranian built missiles?

 

Here's your google earth grab with the damaged areas inside the yellow oval.

 

Here's the alleged damage. North is Left.

 

Image 2

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco

Edited September 16, 2019 by NanLaew

[canuckamuck]

11 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Here's your google earth grab with the damaged areas inside the yellow oval.

 

Here's the alleged damage. North is Left.

 

Image 2

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco

Wow, very accurate and not very large holes. Don't cruise missiles usually pack a bigger punch? I am thinking the earlier reports are more likely. Drones and drone fired rockets. And it would be weird if Houthis claimed credit, when it was a US/Israeli attack; so I think we can rule that approach as unlikely (not that they wouldn't do something like that). Saudi wouldn't haven't done it to themselves, too costly. So that brings us back to the Houthis with help from Iran.

[shy coconut]

3 hours ago, BestB said:

US and Israel want war in the Middle East ?

Do try to keep up dear!

[BestB]

Just now, shy coconut said:

Do try to keep up dear!

May be you can update me ?

 

perhaps Israeli or American statement  saying ready for "full-fledged" war.? 

[NanLaew]

24 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

There is a lot of difference between a cruise missle and a drone attack and US intelligence should be able to distinguish who and where they came from. 

Not a lot to be said about the accuracy of friend or foe ID and real-time tracking of any flying objects when you consider the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus on climb out from Bandar Abbas, mistaking it for an F-14 Tomcat. Admittedly, that was way back in 1988.

 

Unless of course they were low-altitude, drone-borne explosives launched very close to the facility by the Houthi's 'friends'.

[Chomper Higgot]

This looks like superficial damage to the insulation around these spheres. 

 

No sign of fire damage and no sign that the deluge systems were triggered. 

 

Why anyone would attack vessels and pipes when an attack on the plant's electrical systems would be far more certain of stopping the production is a question that needs answering. 

 

Perhaps somebody needed something that looked dramatic. 

[Chomper Higgot]

So we learn of the apparent fact that there is zero radar coverage over these strategically important facilities. Drones buzzing overhead or cruise missiles flying in at low altitude, radar and the hundreds of security personnel at these facilities evaded. 

 

Amazing stuff. 

 

I look forward to seeing evidence to back up these allegations, radar traces and of course wreckage from these 'cruise missiles' that doesn't look like camel poo. 

[nauseus]

23 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

This looks like superficial damage to the insulation around these spheres. 

 

No sign of fire damage and no sign that the deluge systems were triggered. 

 

Why anyone would attack vessels and pipes when an attack on the plant's electrical systems would be far more certain of stopping the production is a question that needs answering. 

 

Perhaps somebody needed something that looked dramatic. 

But all very accurate if not dramatic. Maybe it was just a demo?

[otherstuff1957]

The Houthi's have claimed responsibility and the Iranians have been building drones for over 30 years.  The best of the Iranian drones probably have the range to fly from any of the surrounding countries, including Yemen. 

 

While it is fun to speculate about conspiracies, the simplest answer is probably correct.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

But all very accurate if not dramatic. Maybe it was just a demo?

Maybe it was something else.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, otherstuff1957 said:

The Houthi's have claimed responsibility and the Iranians have been building drones for over 30 years.  The best of the Iranian drones probably have the range to fly from any of the surrounding countries, including Yemen. 

 

While it is fun to speculate about conspiracies, the simplest answer is probably correct.

And the simplest answer is those who claimed responsibility did it. 

 

[tifino]

well I just dunno where the strategists get their ideas from?? 

 

 

  tankers in the straits

 

   

 

 

the destroy refineries to discredit theory...

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, NanLaew said:

Here's your google earth grab with the damaged areas inside the yellow oval.

 

Here's the alleged damage. North is Left.

 

Image 2

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco

According to these images, the holes are clearly pointing at West.

So in both options (from Iran or from Yemen), the weapons had to do a round path before striking.

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

According to these images, the holes are clearly pointing at West.

So in both options (from Iran or from Yemen), the weapons had to do a round path before striking.

Yes.