Thai baht is likely to weaken, central bank deputy governor says

[Percy P]

17 hours ago, anterian said:

When it comes to the Pound it is difficult to separate out Thai effects from Brexit effects.

Not really, when Brexit is settled and  UK leaves the EU completely without any strings attached I'm sure the £ will rise against the $ which in turn will rise against the Baht but l can't see the Baht going down in value.

The Thai Foreign  Currency  Reserve (FCR) is bursting  at its seams and can cover all of its foreign debt and with 39million tourists expected each bringing  in 20,ooo Baht the demand for the Baht will still be their.

Vote Brexit Party.

[saengd]

If BOT doesn't solve the current account surplus issue and weaken THB, it risks further sanctions from the US and of course further loss of exports share, THB will weaken I'm certain, the question is how it will happen.

[Dario]

9 hours ago, MaxYakov said:

And HERE is the X-Rates USD graph showing around 30.30 on December 4th. Where can I get 30.30/USD? I can't get that at Bangkok Bank, that's for sure (because their profit/cut on the transaction).

 

Right now (DEC 5 at 13:03 Thai time) you can get 30.22165 THB for the US$ at Xendpay. It might get better if you wait a bit.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

No, the markets are betting the Tories will win the election so GBP is strengthening against USD, as a result GBP/THB is getting stronger. 

The Baht has also weakened against the dollar in that timeframe, but by a much smaller amount so you're right that it's predominantly due to the pound strengthening rather than THB weakening.

 

[earlinclaifornia]

I track it daily and am happy to agree with the bank. I hope it continues as my extra free spending I use to have will help Thailand out by 13K

[Baerboxer]

19 hours ago, toofarnorth said:

Today 39.5 - Quid , 'Its getting better all the time .'

 

As long as the GBP doesn't fall - which given next week's election it might!

[potless]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

FOREX markets are quoting GBP at 42 for April, that should give you some clues.

 

2 hours ago, saengd said:

Yet that same site three weeks ago showed the April rate at 35,

If their predictions can fluctuate by 20% in 3 weeks, I suggest they should be ignored altogether.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, potless said:

 

If their predictions can fluctuate by 20% in 3 weeks, I suggest they should be ignored altogether.

The predictions come from one of the larger business forecasting sites, charts and links to which have been posted several times on TVF.

 

The thing with forecasts is they are useful only at the moment they are complied, a day later the outlook can change substantially. In the case of the forecasts I've mentioned here, the first ones came before the markets took a position a couple of days ago on the outcome of the UK election, the second came after it had done so. So markets are beginning to price in a Tory victory and that has resulted in a significant swing that most people thought would come at some point. As we get closer to the election date markets will react to news, polls and surveys and the rate will change further based on the degree of certainty of the outcome.... markets always hope to have anticipated the outcome correctly, before the outcome is declared

[Percy P]

18 hours ago, worgeordie said:

If that's true it should be dropping like a stone,

regards worgeordie

No No the Thai foreign reserve account is bursting at its seams.

[saengd]

Foreign currency reserves don't really play that much of a part in the strength of the currency. They are very nice to have, give confidence to trading partners that bills will be paid and generally strengthens the underlying fundamentals of the economy.  But THB strength/weakness is determined much more by the current account, capital inflows and currency regulations/restrictions/policy.

[Percy P]

1 hour ago, PGSan said:

First, many apologies for introducing a little intellectual rigour(/rigor into this discussion!

 

An economist writes:

 

If, as claimed by some, the value of all currencies (other than the USF itself) is determined purely by its rate against the US dollar, how can we ever know that “the value of USD has changed”?

[As in the following quote:

     ‘if the value of USD were to change”]

 

The USD/USD rate is always exactly 1.00, it never changes.  Thus, by the above argument “the value of the USD” can never change.

 

Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

But the value of currencies increase against the $ so you get more $ against with your own currency.

[Golden Triangle]

I have one of my pensions paid quarterly to minimise the impact of bank charges, and I have such a payment due a few days after the election, fingers crossed for a bit of a bump upwards in the value of the £ against either the $ or THB whichever one effects the FX ???? 

 

Whilst I read and appreciate a lot of what you guys & gals tell me most of it is double dutch to me, sorry to any Dutch people out there ???? 

[Percy P]

1 hour ago, PGSan said:

First, many apologies for introducing a little intellectual rigour(/rigor into this discussion!

 

An economist writes:

 

If, as claimed by some, the value of all currencies (other than the USF itself) is determined purely by its rate against the US dollar, how can we ever know that “the value of USD has changed”?

[As in the following quote:

     ‘if the value of USD were to change”]

 

The USD/USD rate is always exactly 1.00, it never changes.  Thus, by the above argument “the value of the USD” can never change.

 

Or is there a flaw in my reasoning?

But currencies against the Dollar can increase in value thus  giving one  more Dollars  against the increase.

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Percy P said:

But currencies against the Dollar can increase in value thus  giving one  more Dollars  against the increase.

Both halves of a currency pair can increase or decrease in value, USD can decrease and THB can increase or vica versa.

[jerojero]

Said that 2 months ago.  Absolutely nothing changed.

[potless]

26 minutes ago, saengd said:

The predictions come from one of the larger business forecasting sites, charts and links to which have been posted several times on TVF.

Yes, I was looking at them earlier this year when a similar subject was discussed. i also pointed out at that time how knee jerk reactions to even a hint of the U.K. raising interest rates, created volatility. Agree with the rest of your post. To clarify my previous post, if the forecasts are that variable, why would anyone believe forecasts for 2020 and beyond ?  

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed

[Jackin1960]

Not good for me I want to sell my shophouse in CM and take my money back to the UK sooner the better too.

[saengd]

3 hours ago, potless said:

Yes, I was looking at them earlier this year when a similar subject was discussed. i also pointed out at that time how knee jerk reactions to even a hint of the U.K. raising interest rates, created volatility. Agree with the rest of your post. To clarify my previous post, if the forecasts are that variable, why would anyone believe forecasts for 2020 and beyond ?  

I agree, long range forecasts on anything become less reliable the further out you look but for planning purposes business often needs something rather than nothing. I used to be involved in business start-ups and we would always produce a model at the outset that determined whether the business was viable or not, the business case. As the months go by and as more facts become known, the model gets adjusted until at some point it bears no resemblance to where we started, but it did give us a starting point.

[Soi Dog]

Every time some expert makes a prediction about the Baht the opposite happens.  Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk.

[brokenbone]

33 minutes ago, Soi Dog said:

Every time some expert makes a prediction about the Baht the opposite happens.  Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk.

...but the real experts is in consensus the pound should give a minimum of 50 baht in exchange

[BimBoon]

Now is great time to move any savings you have out of Thailand before it does drop.

[saengd]

59 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

...but the real experts is in consensus the pound should give a minimum of 50 baht in exchange

Who the real experts, you and your mate?

[kingdong]

9 hours ago, saengd said:

The people who are saying the economy here will crash are the people who don't have any money and want a better exchange rate, either that or they're dreaming about visitin g Thailand from a bedsit in Croydon. 

 

For all the moaning that's been taking place and for all the articles that have been published, the Thai economy is actually in fairly decent shape. Moody's has just upgraded the credit worthiness of three top Thai banks (unlike the UK where they're all being downgraded); exports have just come off an all time high of USD 22 bill per month and fallen to around 19 bill, a volume last seen three years ago; tourist numbers, Thailand's second string to its economic bow, continue to grow; foreign debt is extremely low, foreign currency reserves are extremely high. Your money in a Thai bank is very safe.

Tourist numbers continue to grow?i,m flying Bangkok for 5 weeks 1 night in Bangkok then i,m off to vietnam,I must be one of these phantom tourists the figures of which the tat love to quote.

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, Soi Dog said:

Every time some expert makes a prediction about the Baht the opposite happens.  Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk.

If anybody knew they'd be billionaires and unlikely to be reading or posting on here.

Pound is up to 39.85, if I knew I wouldn't have changed at 39.15 earlier this week.

Edited December 5, 2019 by BritManToo

[CH1961]

52 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Pound is up to 39.85, if I knew I wouldn't have changed at 39.15 earlier this week.

Even if you changed your pension of 1000 British Pound, the difference is only 700 Baht. 

Stop whining ????

[saengd]

8 hours ago, kingdong said:

Tourist numbers continue to grow?i,m flying Bangkok for 5 weeks 1 night in Bangkok then i,m off to vietnam,I must be one of these phantom tourists the figures of which the tat love to quote.

If you're spending one night in Bangkok you're no phantom, TAT thanks you for your contribution to the Thai economy 

[ChipButty]

I've no need to worry I have no money my wife's got it all

[BritManToo]

8 hours ago, CH1961 said:

Even if you changed your pension of 1000 British Pound, the difference is only 700 Baht. 

Stop whining ????

That's 3 large bottles of Hong Thong.

[CH1961]

57 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

That's 3 large bottles of Hong Thong.

For alkohol addicted, China should be perfect. 

One bottle of Er Gou Tou for 45 Baht ????