webfact Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Tourist arrivals could be 10 million below estimates By THE NATION Thailand could lose almost 10 million foreign tourists in a worst-case scenario if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained soon, Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Yutthasak Supasorn said. “Currently the TAT is estimating total foreign tourists in 2020 at 34.2 million, down 5.6 million from last year’s 39.8 million, which is considered a best-case scenario amid the Covid-19 outbreak,” he said. “In the worst case, the number could fall to 30 million foreign tourists or about 10 million lower than last year. “As for revenue from foreign tourists, we estimate Bt1.5 billion this year, or about three-quarters of last year’s total revenue,” he added. The governor said that TAT was 70 per cent confident of its best-case scenario projection materialising. “We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March, which means April could be the lowest point for foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand,” he said. “After that the number will start growing again by July. However, if the lowest point is delayed to May, it would take at least three months or until September to see an increase in the number of tourists again.” The TAT survey found that from January 25 to February 29, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand decreased by 40 per cent compared to the same period last year, with more than 81 per cent of missing tourists being Chinese. “This is due to the Chinese government’s ban earlier this year on tour companies taking people out of the country,” he added. Yutthasak also added that by the end of this week, TAT should have a conclusion on whether it should organise the Songkran Festival 2020. “We will discuss with the private sector soon as there are public concerns about Covid-19 spreading by throwing water,” he said. “However, we still believe that the festival can be held by adjusting the form and focus on cultural aspects of Songkran.” Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30383749 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-03-10 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mstevens Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Given the TAT always puts a positive spin on things, I'd expect the drop to be much larger than 10 million. 25 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ChipButty Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Two of our guest arrived at the airport in HK only to find out it's now on the list of banned countries not allowed to board the plane 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fruitman Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ChipButty said: Two of our guest arrived at the airport in HK only to find out it's now on the list of banned countries not allowed to board the plane Guests? You mean visitors from Thailand who now are stuck in Hongkong? So Thailand is on the ban list in Hongkong now? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OneMoreFarang Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run? I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtof2 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, webfact said: The governor said that TAT was 70 per cent confident of its best-case scenario projection materialising. Can't wait to be one month older ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipButty Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said: How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run? I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better. Exactly, if you had done a visa run to HK yesterday and gone to the airport this morning in HK you are stuck there, wonderful! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post fforest1 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said: How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run? I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better. No they will never show any thanks to the nasty westerners still here or the nasty visa run westerners...... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NCC1701A Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post whiteman Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 More like 15 million and counting 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post madmitch Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, webfact said: “We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March TAT are probably the only organisation in the world that believe this. Three weeks? Always the optimists. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post soalbundy Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, mstevens said: Given the TAT always puts a positive spin on things, I'd expect the drop to be much larger than 10 million. Arrivals will be 10 million, syrian refugees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyL Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 In the worst case, the number could fall to 30 million foreign tourists or about 10 million lower than last year. Considering the outbreak is showing no signs of stopping then international tourism could be decimated for a long time to come. Experts have predicted the whole of 2020. Their estimate of 30M could be very wrong as a 'worst case'. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DrTuner Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Sustainable amount would be about 10M tourists. Needs to go a lot lower still. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Guderian Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 It all depends on how far and how fast the virus spreads in other countries. If most places end up having to follow Italy's and China's examples then there won't be any tourists coming, period. The current indecision by the UK government over moving to the delay phase shows that these decisions aren't easy, even though the UK has been warned by the EU that it might be just 10 days away from Italy's current plight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
30la Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 hours ago, webfact said: “Currently the TAT is estimating total foreign tourists in 2020 at 34.2 million, down 5.6 million from last year’s 39.8 million, which is considered a best-case scenario amid the Covid-19 outbreak,” he said. It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares! Wake up before the train has left ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atyclb Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 hours ago, NCC1701A said: do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools? you are "reaching" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainman34014 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 hours ago, NCC1701A said: do they teach about negative numbers in Thai schools? If it adds up to more than 8 fingers and 2 thumbs even the teachers are stumped ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post legend49 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 Why stop at 10 million lets double the figure to enable some logical group not the sham government to re-invent the country. The economy, tourist facilities and support systems are a train wreck. With Songkran cancellations a good opportunity to CLEAN the place up, start with garbage that's left anywhere it can be thrown. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiang Mai Bill Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 “We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March . . .'' So that's all right then -- no problem! Carry on as normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Airalee Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 My flights out of Thailand have been cancelled so I’m stuck here spending money. Good for Thailand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NCC1701A Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Airalee said: My flights out of Thailand have been cancelled so I’m stuck here spending money. Good for Thailand. two weeks ago i told everybody they needed to decide where they want to be to ride out the pandemic. Thailand or return/stay home. we are now approaching the time when returning to your home countries may not be possible. good luck. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainman34014 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, 30la said: It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares! Wake up before the train has left ... 'Devising Strategies' will not be on the menu; they will expect people to return to the same old Thailand with all its faults ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dluek Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 30 million seems very optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cake Monster Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 It took the World the best part of 18 Months to regain full Tourism Etc after the Sars outbreak Maybe thats some idea as to how long this thing could affect Tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post scubascuba3 Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 i reckon 90% of tourists will cancel holidays until this Corona is over, could take months then will restart with a trickle 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Odysseus123 Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 I think that the tourist numbers will double or even triple! Sure..I may not get many "likes" here but TAT will love me..???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) Frankly if Thailand only gets away with a 10 million drop they'll have done remarkably well I'm expecting around 18 Million possibly higher Edited March 10, 2020 by Chivas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timendres Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, 30la said: It makes no sense to get lost in predictions that are never right, start devising strategies to bring tourists back, you have enough time, don't give it away with dreams that turn into nightmares! Wake up before the train has left ... This is exactly correct. Thailand should be less concerned with how far it will drop, and be focused on how to prime the pump once things turn around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post rabang Posted March 10, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chivas said: Frankly if Thailand only gets away with a 10 million drop they'll have done remarkably well I'm expecting around 18 Million possibly higher 25% seems indeed almost optimistic considering that during probably at least the first half of the year the industry seems decimated from what I can observe. I wouldn't be surprised of a drop of 40 percent or more. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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