Sharp increase in Covid-19 cases in Thai provinces 'cause for concern'

[Aussie999]

5 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

Can you thrive at 37C in the middle of a desert with no food and water? 

 

The theory is just that at higher temperature the virus inactivate faster thus slowing down it's spread.

You are wrong, it is not "inactive," but as in my link, it may slow down the infection rate, in some viruses, but with Covid-19 they do not yet know, Australia, Iran and African nations are very warm, and yet the virus is spreading.

And this "Can you thrive at 37C in the middle of a desert with no food and water," is simply ridiculous, it has nothing to do with a virus, even humans can survive for quite some time.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Aussie999

[bkk6060]

27 minutes ago, cardinalblue said:

Those out of work in bkk should shelter in place and not go home to provinces...

 

With what money?  Many live day to day and rent is due in about a week.

Edited March 23, 2020 by bkk6060

[josephbloggs]

12 hours ago, Brigand said:

You have to realise that the locals don't give a flying fc*k about this sort of thing. You can't appeal to their better nature as it's concentrated on me me me. They will not do as they are told, will all disappear to where they want and to hell with the consequences as long as I'm OK. There is very little community beyond the villages and even in the village it's vicious. The photos of Morchit sum it up well ...screw everyone so long as I get out. They may as well just accept the casualty rates and carry on as normal as you are not going to get any coming together of society as it looks like everyone for themselves and if it gets you it gets you. A symptom of the modern world I'm afraid and we will see the results soon enough.

So tell me, you are a very low paid worker in Bangkok, you are put out of work for 2-3 months, of course you - with all your great knowledge of how busy the bus station is going to be - are going to stay put in a major city you can barely afford to live in when you are fully employed, just because some righteous sage on a grumpy forum thinks you should.  You're definitely not going to think of going home to stay with your family.  Oh no, because you know the bus station is going to be busy you will stay alone.

Get real and have some compassion and understanding.

[Tayaout]

6 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

You are wrong, it is not "inactive," but as in my link, it may slow down the infection rate, in some viruses, but with Covid-19 they do not yet know, Australia, Iran and African nations are very warm, and yet the virus is spreading.

I personally don't believe it will play a major role in slowing down the disease. I'm just explaining that being outside of a virus optimal habitat is not optimal for propagation. 

 

I'm sorry if I offended you by making a typo "inactivate". English is obviously not my first language. Since a virus is not alive I don't use the term "dying". 

 

Edit: I did not make a typo. Not sure what is your problem. You probably think that a virus is alive. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tayaout

[IamNoone88]

China, despite its short comings, bought every country time - about 2 months to get organised, as it locked down and imposed these draconian measures to stop the spread. That should had been warning enough. However, what happened? Our leaders in the West and other countries in South East Asia, were sleeping at the wheel. They seem to forget that a China problem, economic or health or otherwise, rapidly becomes every-ones problem. China sneezes and we all get a cold. Our leaders squandered the valuable time - several weeks - that China bought all of us and here we are wondering why we face a crisis and rising infection rates and are totally unprepared.

[dougiemac52]

13 hours ago, DLock said:

Well, you did nothing for the month of February, including no testing, and now you shut everything down, and those people exposed are now going home to establish new infection hubs.

 

...you didn't really think about this, did you?

Yes it seems to be a big failing in Thailand, THINKING AND DEALING WITH AT THE TIME ????????

[toper3jr]

13 hours ago, CLW said:

Pro-active and preventive thinking hardly to be found here...

 

Bus station Mor Chit was packed today.

 

 

Omg I'm so so so angry.  This could have been prevented!  The deaths about to happen ARE ALL ON THIS GOVERNMENT AND THAIS, NOT DIRTY FARANGS!

[SkyFax]

10 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

The Mrs says that according to Thai news, those crowds at Mo Chit bus station were mostly Burmese, Laos and Khmers heading for the border towns to return home

This was pretty much confirmed in a story posted 23 MAR 4:30 AM in the BP mostly non-Thai migrant workers looking to beat any Thai border lock-down.

[wensiensheng]

12 hours ago, Susco said:

I hate to say it, but you have no idea what your are talking about.

 

The mortality rate of covid-19 is about 1%, of the people that get infected, which is so far in the worst case in the world 0.5% of the population (San Marino) , so how would it be possible for any country to have 20% of their population die of the virus?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/what-is-coronavirus-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Unfortunately, there maybe factors that put Thailand at the very high end of mortality rates. Smoking among the male population is one (conversely the lack thereof in females may mitigate it), poor air quality in parts of the country is another, but the main factor imo will be a lack of medical facilities for those that get seriously ill.
 

I’ve been to two government hospitals over the last 5 years to visit relatives of my wife and they were absolutely bursting at the seams. Beds a foot apart so that you could hardly walk between them, beds in corridors.

 

private hospitals are different, but what thai can afford them? Very few.

[tifino]

3 minutes ago, IamNoone88 said:

China, despite its short comings, bought every country time - about 2 months to get organised, as it locked down and imposed these draconian measures to stop the spread.

 only the WHO credits them for that...

 

 - in reality, the rest of humanity knows it was the whistleblowers!

- worthy Laureates of Nobel Peace Prize (cost one of them his own life; and other individuals, their freedom (for reporting it)

 

[jingjai9]

I wonder if part of the problem here is lack of hot water or at least warm water when washing hands and dishes. 

[ChipButty]

9 minutes ago, jingjai9 said:

I wonder if part of the problem here is lack of hot water or at least warm water when washing hands and dishes. 

Took me years to convince her in doors that cold water doesn't clean anything I often put all the cutlery in a bowl with scolding hot water over them and we have a kitchen outside also, I pour boiling water over the work tops, Its not the cleaner who keeps it clean it's me the cleaner is a lazy cow

[OneeyedJohn]

Naam ma lai here almost everyday, all day.

This morning at 02:30 I was outside filling up 2 huge barrels when I discovered the water was at last running.

I am concerned our well will empty and then we will be in the sh it

[PaDavid]

When they closed the bars, restaurants, etc, they should have put Bangkok, Pattaya, et al into lockdown. Stop the buses and planes. I guess it would have been impossible to stop people leaving in cars, but at least they would have been contained in small numbers. Just one carrier in crowded transport will have infected many of the others. The attached image shows there is no plan currently in place

[KeeTua]

10 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Here in the village there are 2 big parties going on near us right now. Loads of tables at both and the usual communal plates of food in the middle of each.

We declined to attend.

But I'm sure they are all washing their hands thoroughly with soap and water before eating.

[Aussie999]

49 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

I personally don't believe it will play a major role in slowing down the disease. I'm just explaining that being outside of a virus optimal habitat is not optimal for propagation. 

 

I'm sorry if I offended you by making a typo "inactivate". English is obviously not my first language. Since a virus is not alive I don't use the term "dying". 

 

Edit: I did not make a typo. Not sure what is your problem. You probably think that a virus is alive. 

" I did not make a typo. Not sure what is your problem. You probably think that a virus is alive," is either active or inactive, I never said alive.

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, CLW said:

Bus station Mor Chit was packed today.

The weekend saw a mass exodus from Bangkok to home towns, some will be infected and act as carriers on the way home in the transport and when they arrive... 

Most say Bkk is closed with nothing to do, they refuse to sit at their accommodation so are heading to family far away in the hope of some normality.

Expect the numbers to surge more in a week or two!

 

[Aussie999]

32 minutes ago, jingjai9 said:

I wonder if part of the problem here is lack of hot water or at least warm water when washing hands and dishes. 

temperature of the water makes little difference, soap breaks down the fatty outer layer, of the virus, which then simply falls apart.... end of virus.

[Susco]

7 hours ago, GeoMill said:

Love how you're quoting a quote that says its 'probably' 1%, whereas in the same quote the WHO says 3,4%. Let's stick with the WHO for now, who has access to way more stats, than Chris Whitty. A Brit who has probably not been anywere near China for the past months. 

How convenient that you quote the WHO's 3.4%, but forget the rest of the sentence, not?

 

Here it is for you again.

 

but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

[Sydebolle]

What did this government expect, honestly? Why is nobody applying common sense to all this?

You cannot issue decrees to close businesses, lack the legal and financial backing and then wonder, why possibly hundreds of thousands of unemployed, hardly educated people go, where life does not cost money. They are forced to go home where life is cheap(er) than their work places, be it Bangkok, Pattaya or Phuket. There at least they are sustained by their families. Get ready for the usual exodus as experienced prior to Songkran or New Year. 

This is a pristine example on how to absolutely ensure, that the distribution takes place all over the place in no time. 

 

 

[RickTik]

When you think about the global tourist traffic that has come through Thailand these last three months, and the facts that:

A. They came through unchecked;

B. The true incubation period of COVID-19 is 28-35 days, (making the 14 day quarantine a cruel joke);

C. There are very bad people out there specifically trying to infect as many as possible;

Thailand, (along with the rest of the global community), is in for the roughest period of time in our lifetime.

I tried to warn people on this site, but had my post "deleted".

So what can be done?

Survive the COVID-19 mess by avoiding crowds and practice good hygiene. See you on the other side. ✌

Check out this "Royal's" comment:

[bluemoonpattaya]

I am living in north Thailand and preparing for the coming virus storm.

My biggest concern of which nobody has mentioned is the internet.

when everyone has gone home the extra usage for socialising and work could cause the internet to crash here in Thailand and world wide.

Then we would be in isolation 

[elliss]

11 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Here in the village there are 2 big parties going on near us right now. Loads of tables at both and the usual communal plates of food in the middle of each.

We declined to attend.

 

         Yep ,   with the cooks sampling the soup , using the big spoon ,

         then putting it back into the pot..

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by elliss

[elliss]

40 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Took me years to convince her in doors that cold water doesn't clean anything I often put all the cutlery in a bowl with scolding hot water over them and we have a kitchen outside also, I pour boiling water over the work tops, Its not the cleaner who keeps it clean it's me the cleaner is a lazy cow

 

    I  wash my personal cup's , plates, cutlery in hot water .

    Have doon , since living here..

[pookondee]

13 hours ago, exparte said:

Obviously it was not a concern for the people who decided to do nothing to stop the mass exodus of Bangkok!

What exactly were they going to do?

 

Given the ingrained tradition of the Thais to head home around Songkran and holidays, If they forced people to stay in Bangkok, closed down bus stations,

and had gaurds blocking roads,

there would be a whole bunch of new and just as bad problems pop up.

 

As people have noted, some Thais are not exactly very good with discipline and sound logic

when it comes down to this sort of thing.

 

If they enforce strict travel restrictions there could possibly be mob demonstrations, marches and rioting, which would result in large groups congregating anyway.

 

And we all know what happened last time.

 

[wolf81]

13 hours ago, Brigand said:

You have to realise that the locals don't give a flying fc*k about this sort of thing. You can't appeal to their better nature as it's concentrated on me me me. They will not do as they are told, will all disappear to where they want and to hell with the consequences as long as I'm OK. There is very little community beyond the villages and even in the village it's vicious. The photos of Morchit sum it up well ...screw everyone so long as I get out. They may as well just accept the casualty rates and carry on as normal as you are not going to get any coming together of society as it looks like everyone for themselves and if it gets you it gets you. A symptom of the modern world I'm afraid and we will see the results soon enough.

I think this is not completely fair. Thailand doesn't have a proper welfare system and I guess very little in terms of job security for most people. The wages for "simple" jobs are also very low, so it must be hard to make proper savings. As soon as these low paid wage-slaves are laid off, it becomes very hard to pay the rent for their shoebox in the city and it makes more sense to move to the family house in the village where costs of living are low.

[Aussie999]

 

RickTik "B. The true incubation period of COVID-19 is 28-35 days," wow, where did you get that from?

[grobec]

Here is a good and detailed information site.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[alanrchase]

13 hours ago, Susco said:

I hate to say it, but you have no idea what your are talking about.

 

The mortality rate of covid-19 is about 1%, of the people that get infected, which is so far in the worst case in the world 0.5% of the population (San Marino) , so how would it be possible for any country to have 20% of their population die of the virus?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/what-is-coronavirus-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

The figures being put about for mortality rates are either based on current confirmed cases and deaths or based on assumptions. The figure of about 1% is based on the assumption that everyone that requires hospital treatment will get it. Italy is already proving this to be an incorrect assumption with a current mortality rate of 9%.

[dpcjsr]

In Phayao I have seen a number of attractive tattooed young women that I have never seen before. The girls are leaving the south and going home until this thing blows over and unfortunately some of them might be spreading the virus to the rest of Thailand.