Covid-19: Thailand's outbreak will be all over by June - world must wait till November

[GAZZPA]

12 minutes ago, herwin1234 said:

Not so hard to believe. here the crisis is dealt with by decisive leaders basing their decisions on facts and science,  and a united population.

America? A Supreme leader who suggests injecting bleach might be the cure, who encourages unruly citizens protesting, and who together with his sidekick Pence refuse to wear masks. What a <deleted>hole country!

True, Trump is an unbelievable imbecile. I can hardly believe what he said about injecting disinfectant. I wouldn't have believed the most powerful leader in the world would say such a ridiculous thing had I not seen it for myself. A couple of days later he said he had no idea why the emergency services have had a spike in calls regarding disinfectant.... hahahaha.... However silly he is I would never trust the Thai leaders to make any decisions based on anything but money. it seems obvious that tropical climates does indeed slow the spread, there is quite a lot of scientific data to support this and you only have to look at how it has spread in countries in the northern hemisphere to see it. I think if you are Thailand you should thank you lucky stars because if they had a serious outbreak and spread I don't believe Thailand would have the ability or money to deal with it. 

[Nanaplaza666]

4 hours ago, thequietman said:

Unless the borders are open to the Chinese and other tourists, then Thailand will be in December before improvements even start to show, if at all. ????

 

I think you missunderstood the whole post .

[Spellforce]

The more interesting part is the 100% date per country.

Because of course Thailand will start to open its international flights around june.

I see forthcoming countries classified as RED (<97%), ORANGE (<99%) and GREEN (100%), and only people coming from GREEN countries will be allowed to land in Thailand + one covid-19 test.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Spellforce

[GAZZPA]

5 minutes ago, Spellforce said:

The more interesting part is the 100% date per country.

Because of course Pattaya will start to open its international flights around june.

I see forthcoming countries classified as RED (<97%), ORANGE (<99%) and GREEN (100%), and only people coming from GREEN countries will be allowed to land in Thailand + a covid-19 test.

none of this matters. The world will be struggling until we beat this with a vaccine. It doesn't matter what countries are clear first, nobody is going to travel anytime soon. Firstly no money, secondly fear of sitting on a long haul flight on a plane. there is only 1 solution and chance of getting back to any kind of normality and that is a vaccine.... So probably a good year yet.

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, Tanlic said:

ovid will be all over June?........my advice is keep away from her.

 

<deleted> joke but then so was Joker getting an Oscar........sick of hearing about Covid 19 predictions

 

It is not Sars this is one evil well organized unit that know the difference between weak and strong hosts.....kills the weak hardly harms the strong and they carry it without knowing.......

 

Some Thai saying it will be over is crazy and politically motivated........when there has been very few new cases worldwide for a month then it is over....and everone is vaccined

 

Influenza was over (the Spanish Flu) everything went back to normal then it came back like a Tornado and killed millions

 

I was beginning to think I was the only one with their head screwed on. You are of course 100% correct, this will be over when an effective vaccine is widely available. Speculating on which country may be clear first is completely irrelevant really. Knowing Thailand and the ridiculous leaders they will use this to blow their trumpet and say look how amazing we are comparing to others, honestly it's like kids in the playground. As I said before I think it is a good thing that Thailand did not have a serious outbreak because they would spend more time spinning news reports rather then being truthful to the people and tackling it head on... stay safe,,

 

[Spellforce]

@GAZZPA

 

I dont agree, I think that some countries have to be put on a quarantine/ban list untill they are completly cleared = new cases per day in the country < 10.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Spellforce

[AAArdvark]

5 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

A.I. modeling?

All AI's will be cured by the end of July.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

For Thailand 97% had already passed on April 26th, 99% would be on May 7th and 100% on June 11th.

Does that take into account the thousands that are still PUI?

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, bluesofa said:

I hope not. Just in time for the second wave to hit.

 

There is no second wave.

 

The Spanish flu was an anomaly, which is now used as a rule by the fearmongers.

 

SARS and all the following viruses we have had during this century didn't have a second wave...

Edited April 29, 2020 by Brunolem

[Brunolem]

39 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

none of this matters. The world will be struggling until we beat this with a vaccine. It doesn't matter what countries are clear first, nobody is going to travel anytime soon. Firstly no money, secondly fear of sitting on a long haul flight on a plane. there is only 1 solution and chance of getting back to any kind of normality and that is a vaccine.... So probably a good year yet.

The virus will be long gone when a vaccine will show up, if ever...

[Aussieroaming]

Why do the subsequent waves of infection during the "Spanish Flu" come to mind. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, vermin on arrival said:

The reality is we will need to find a way to live with this while protecting ourselves and developing herd immunity.

 

So-called herd immunity is just a theory, and a currently unproven theory, as it relates to the current CV... Just this week, the WHO posted that there has been no scientific or medical proof / study / research thus far showing that the public at large, once infected by the current CV, can't become infected again later.

 

[Purdey]

Statistics normally have room for error. The fact they they give an exact date is already suspicious. Why not give the exact time as well? 

[thequietman]

1 hour ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

I think you missunderstood the whole post .

No, Thailand may be able to get back to normal sooner than others.

 

However, if they then allow free movement from surrounding countries, then the normal will be no longer normal. Infections will surely rise and Thailand will be back to where it was before.

 

Domestic tourism only if this is to work. ????

[fraggleRock]

1 hour ago, Spellforce said:

The more interesting part is the 100% date per country.

Because of course Thailand will start to open its international flights around june.

I see forthcoming countries classified as RED (<97%), ORANGE (<99%) and GREEN (100%), and only people coming from GREEN countries will be allowed to land in Thailand + one covid-19 test.

Why bother with all the hassle and cost, probably stay in home Country... as if all paperwork is in order tourists will still get messed around by the daft lunitics who call themselves immigration officers....

Edited April 29, 2020 by fraggleRock

[Spellforce]

@thequietman

 

This is why Thailand will not be able to open its fontiers to all countries, it will have to be done in time according to their number of new cases.

[vermin on arrival]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

So-called herd immunity is just a theory, and a currently unproven theory, as it relates to the current CV... Just this week, the WHO posted that there has been no scientific or medical proof / study / research thus far showing that the public at large, once infected by the current CV, can't become infected again later.

 

Yes, I am aware of that statement which may or may not be true, but we can't stay like this forever. We need to find a way to continue to live. Staying in lockdown for 1 to 2 years waiting for a vaccine which may not come makes no sense. However, I have read of some success using one on monkeys by researchers at Oxford just today.

[GreasyFingers]

6 hours ago, UbonThani said:

what i said 6 weeks ago

no spreadsheet needed

Back in the early days of programmable calculators I wrote a program that when 2 + 2 was put in it gave the answer 5

[Spellforce]

@vermin on arrival

You nickname made me smile ????

 

 

[DrTuner]

Quote

Data Driven Innovation Laboratory

Let me guess. The data was from MoPH.

 

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

 

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

Quote

*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.

 

Quote

data from Our World in Data.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#our-world-in-data-relies-on-data-from-the-european-cdc

Quote

Our World in Data relies on data from the European CDC
In this document and the many embedded and linked charts we report and visualize the data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

 

From their csv file:

 

Quote

29-04-20    Thailand    0    0    2938    54

 

As suspected, the MopH numbers. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[tomauasia]

If they let Chinese in. They will start it all over again. You need to be put in a asylum if you let them in lol.

[johnnybangkok]

2 hours ago, Tanlic said:

ovid will be all over June?........my advice is keep away from her.

 

<deleted> joke but then so was Joker getting an Oscar........sick of hearing about Covid 19 predictions

 

It is not Sars this is one evil well organized unit that know the difference between weak and strong hosts.....kills the weak hardly harms the strong and they carry it without knowing.......

 

Some Thai saying it will be over is crazy and politically motivated........when there has been very few new cases worldwide for a month then it is over....and everone is vaccined

 

Influenza was over (the Spanish Flu) everything went back to normal then it came back like a Tornado and killed millions

 

There are a lot of comparisons that can be made with Spanish Flu and the C19 pandemic but Spanish Flu was much more deadly because mistakes were made that are being mirrored by many governments (noteably the UK and US) to include governments initially playing down the pandemic whilst they focused almost entirely on the last big push to end the war and telling the public it's not a big problem, or, as the name suggests, that it was a foreign disease that only affects 'others,'". In the US there was no federal response so this left cities and states to go off on their own and make decisions for themselves, creating inconsistancies in response and effectivenes (who and what does that remind you of?).

 

And the cure? Yes, you guessed it, self-isolation and social distancing. 'Cities that acted earliest and most forcefully -- like St. Louis, which imposed a near total lockdown within two days of its first Spanish flu case -- had much lower peak death rates than cities that hedged their bets -- like New Orleans, Boston and Philadelphia.

 

Covid 19 is not the worlds first rodeo. We've been through this before and we know what to do and so do the experts, so if we just stop arguing against the professionals (yes, i know there's a lot of conflicting advice but generally most experts agree on self-isolation, social distancing etc) stay the course and stop listening to people who recommend ingesting disinfectant for example, we should be good. 

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200420/four-lessons-from-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic#3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6477554/

[Spellforce]

2 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

No not garbage In because all countries are doing more and more tests, so the figure of "new cases per day" maybe was underrated months ago, but today it's more accurate. And if that figure of "new cases per day" is declining, it clearly shows that the virus is also declining.

[Brunolem]

16 minutes ago, thequietman said:

No, Thailand may be able to get back to normal sooner than others.

 

However, if they then allow free movement from surrounding countries, then the normal will be no longer normal. Infections will surely rise and Thailand will be back to where it was before.

 

Domestic tourism only if this is to work. ????

Remember that the borders must be open on BOTH sides to allow tourism.

 

Thailand can open its borders, but that won't bring any tourists if China, India or Western Europe keep their own borders closed.

 

On top of that, no one will want to travel for tourism as long as restrictions linked to the virus will remain in place (social distancing, masks, quarantine, you name it).

 

And these restrictions will not disappear anytime soon, and certainly not in June.

[Scott Tracy]

This rubbish is why some governments stated some time ago that scientists really don't know squat.

This is why different governments have differing approaches to this particular virus, because scientists appear to have no clue either.

 

There was a statement made some time ago by a scientist, but I can't find it anymore, so: 

Disclaimer: This reported statement is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The statement is inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different scientists. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution with the odd pinch of salt.

 

So the statement as I recall it goes: Science is what we do until we know what we're doing.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Scott Tracy
Removing superfluous words.

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

However, I have read of some success using one on monkeys by researchers at Oxford just today.

That must be the one they also tried on Kim Jong Un...with mixed results it seems...

[tomazbodner]

6 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

Interesting. Just checked and Thailand isn't even listed...

 

[Spellforce]

7 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Remember that the borders must be open on BOTH sides to allow tourism.

That's why only some "cleared" countries will be able to come to Thailand first.

10% of tourists will be able to come in june to Thailand, 30% in jully, 50% in august, etc... ?

Edited April 29, 2020 by Spellforce

[DrTuner]

I would have liked to see how MoPH data fits into the SIR model they are using, but Thailand is not included in the graphs or I'm going blind (help?)

 

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

 

The countries that have most reliable test results likely fit the model best. Not sure why they used SIR and not SEIR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology

 

Here's a playgournd for SEIR: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

 

As per their disclaimer, they did not vet the data at all, they just grabbed it from ECDC, which get's it from MoPH for Thailand.

Edited April 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[GreasyFingers]

5 minutes ago, Spellforce said:

No not garbage In because all countries are doing more and more tests, so the figure of "new cases per day" maybe was underrated months ago, but today it's more accurate. And if that figure of "new cases per day" is declining, it clearly shows that the virus is also declining.

So you were not involved in writing early computer programs. GIGO meant that the program as written was faulty so it did not matter what data was put in, the result was wrong.