Is Prayuth Taking On the Elites?

[Brewster67]

The two big families that have pretty much the monopoly on brewing and distilling of alcohol in Thailand are/were politically quite powerful.

 

This ban must be playing havoc with the flow of their production processes.

 

So is Prayuth attempting to go to war with the elites of the country?...

 

Or is he just projecting power over the people because he can??

 

OR.... Is he projecting power over the elites AND the people???

 

who knows.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Brewster67

[champers]

Who represents the brewers politically?

[Brewster67]

2 minutes ago, champers said:

Who represents the brewers politically?

The Bank of Big Brown Envelopes.

 

Remember where you are.... if you are here.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Brewster67

[saakura]

Hi Brewster, dont worry, the two big brewing families are not going to be starving because of a 60 day (or for thst matter, a 600 day) ban on alcohol. The govt has more to lose due to loss of taxes and loss of support of middle and upper classes, not to mention the labourers, farmers and alcoholics.

[AlexRich]

The problem for the leadership is the lack of support for ordinary Thais, and if people begin starving they will take to the streets ... I can’t see a lockdown lasting long in Thailand.

[Brewster67]

14 minutes ago, saakura said:

Hi Brewster, dont worry, the two big brewing families are not going to be starving because of a 60 day (or for thst matter, a 600 day) ban on alcohol. The govt has more to lose due to loss of taxes and loss of support of middle and upper classes, not to mention the labourers, farmers and alcoholics.

You are absolutely right, especially on the tax take on alcohol.

 

But I was looking more into the processes of providing the product on an industrial scale.

 

Think about it... Beer needs to be planned and put into production about 6 weeks before you need it to hit the retailers so YOU no longer need the burden of storing the excess. the same is with distilling, especially in Thailand when the mainstream brands are around 6 months.

 

So basically the big 'unknown' prevents these industries from being able to come up with any coherent production planning.

 

The ONLY way out of this is to possibly pay for huge amounts of outside storage, and then wind down the starting process.

[champers]

1 hour ago, Brewster67 said:

The Bank of Big Brown Envelopes.

 

Remember where you are.... if you are here.

I am here, locking down as per usual. Are you suggesting the PM is not keeping his side of the deal or is he above all that brown envelope malarkey? 

[timendres]

For all we know, Mr. P is abetting a play by one large group to squeeze another.

That said, Mr. P "take on the elites"? Wouldn't happen unless his life depended on it.

[ukrules]

From what I've seen over the last decade Thailand is mostly a bottle market.

 

I don't normally touch the draft beer as it's generally not cold enough.

 

How long do bottles of beer last? I have a box of Heineken in the corner, just checked it - made in Dec 2019, no expiry or 'best before' date.

 

I have some Beer Laos that's in the fridge since about January, that expires some time in September 2020.

 

I have a feeling the bottles will be just fine for about a year.

[RedPill]

Funny thing, weren't they on the list of the Top 20 a week ago? Asked to donate & help?

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by RedPill

[tgw]

35 minutes ago, ukrules said:

From what I've seen over the last decade Thailand is mostly a bottle market.

 

I don't normally touch the draft beer as it's generally not cold enough.

 

How long do bottles of beer last? I have a box of Heineken in the corner, just checked it - made in Dec 2019, no expiry or 'best before' date.

 

I have some Beer Laos that's in the fridge since about January, that expires some time in September 2020.

 

I have a feeling the bottles will be just fine for about a year.

Beer will be fine in the fridge for a year, possibly two or more, never tried that long.

 

Stored at 30°C, beer can turn bad relatively quickly, as soon as 2-3 months depending on the batch.

[CGW]

3 hours ago, Brewster67 said:

OR.... Is he projecting power over the elites AND the people???

Or is he taking his orders from someone on a higher level, that's my theory! 

[Puchaiyank]

Much to brew about nothing...

[smutcakes]

I think if this is the way he is being advised to go he is following it.

 

No doubt he is liaising with TCC and Singha behind the scenes and they will be rewarded for not kicking up a stink when things open up.

 

You know its serious when they close construction sites down, now that would hurt them far more, particularily TCC.

[2long]

I am bamboozled with confusion about this.

The government will miss out on tax income from the booze sales, and even if their argument is 'well your poor fold shouldn't be wasting money on beer, because the 5,000B handouts might dry up' how will the government fund thew 5,000B handouts?

Also the loss to the alcohol producers will (in a small way) be made worse by some people who can't drink for 2 months and decide not to drink ever again.

Or will Prayuth (after saying he shares our pain this week) play the Good Guy by allowing beer to be sold mid month?

I don't dislike him, but I also don't credit him with a great deal of sense.

This is going to be very interesting, and difficult... I also can't swim!

[BobbyL]

No chance. 

 

There will be a nice deal in place to reward the big brewing companies once this lockdown ends. 

[JAG]

14 hours ago, CGW said:

Or is he taking his orders from someone on a higher level, that's my theory! 

There may be a reordering underway at the very top - you never know, and probably never will.

[Tropicalevo]

15 hours ago, RedPill said:

Funny thing, weren't they on the list of the Top 20 a week ago? Asked to donate & help?

 

Two on the list of top 20 are based on alcohol. Singha being one of them.

I will see if I can find the article again.

 

Found it. Bangkok jack 'Thai gov't commits 'murder' on the drinks industry' 30th April.

#3 Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi and #15 Santi Bhirombhakdi is in the Singha family.

I guess no alcohol until they pay up

Edited May 1, 2020 by Tropicalevo

[Captain Monday]

15 hours ago, tgw said:

Beer will be fine in the fridge for a year, possibly two or more, never tried that long.

 

Stored at 30°C, beer can turn bad relatively quickly, as soon as 2-3 months depending on the batch.

One thing about the "new" Chang is it is consistent. Taste used to vary a lot. Maybe they figured a formula that can handle storage in hot temperatures? Some beers don't travel well. I have had some of the import IPAs I know and like, in Thailand they were not quite right.

[OneeyedJohn]

Same thing with French wine, it just doesn't travel that well.

 

That being said I used to import Singha in the 90's to UK. Never had a bad one. The singha light was also very good, brewed in Germany.

 

The point is this beer and Chang as well has to be made to 'export' quality.

Edited May 1, 2020 by OneeyedJohn

[steelepulse]

This isn't quite Stockholm syndrome, but could be close.

 

What is it called when you treat people like garbage, then one day sometime in the future  throw them a bone and expect everyone to be happy and follow whatever you say?  Is it called the P syndrome?

[OneeyedJohn]

The Romans were quite successful at suppression for a few years.

[JAG]

18 hours ago, Brewster67 said:

So is Prayuth attempting to go to war with the elites of the country?...

 

Or is he just projecting power over the people because he can??

 

OR.... Is he projecting power over the elites AND the people???

 

who knows.

I think that he has got himself into a right mess.

 

The power structure for this regime is complicated. He is not an absolute dictator, he depends upon a variety of groups to keep him in power. One of those groups are the provincial governors and their administrations. They are not elected, but appointed by his government. He depends on them to control their provinces, in line with central government policies.

 

When he assumed 100% control at the start, some details were left to the provincial governors. That is why the various "booze bans" were all for different periods. This was their chance to show that they too had power, and were going to use it. The provincial governors then adjusted the bans so that they were all singing from the same hymn sheet. Prayut cannot overrule them, without causing them to lose face - he dare not do that because he relies on them to control the country.

 

He is also probably in bad odour with the brewery moguls, and also many other big influential concerns who will be losing money because of his actions. This is a risk for him, but backing down and allowing them to have their way will cause such a big loss of face to him that it would quite possibly fatally damage him as Prime Minister.  What is more they told him to go away when he was asking for money to support the government earlier this week, so he may have the hump with them - silly man.

 

In a muddle, way out of his depth. The sad thing is, the big brewery moguls will ride out the storm, the people whose livelihoods depend upon making, transporting, wholesaling and selling booze may well not.

Many will go to the wall because of these battles to save face and wield power.