Australia poised for surge in coronavirus-fuelled unemployment

[webfact]

Australia poised for surge in coronavirus-fuelled unemployment

 

FILE PHOTO: The mostly deserted city is seen following the implementation of stricter social-distancing and self-isolation rules to limit the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Sydney, Australia, April 16, 2020. REUTERS/Loren Elliott

 

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia is expected to post its biggest ever monthly rise in unemployment on Thursday because of coronavirus lockdown measures, even as the country begins to gradually ease those social distancing rules.

 

The jobless figures from the country's statistics office will provide a stark illustration of the pandemic's effect on the national economy, which had experienced an unbroken run of growth for more than two decades.

 

A Reuters poll of 16 analysts has forecast the loss of 575,000 jobs in April, an unprecedented number that would take the unemployment rate to 8.3%, the highest level since 1997.

 

"It will be a horrible set of numbers," said Gareth Aird, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

 

"Employment will fall sharply, hours worked will plummet, the unemployment rate will spike and the participation rate is set to drop."

 

(GRAPHIC: Australia's Unemployment Rate Forecast in April - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yxmvjoxobpr/Australia Unemployment in April.PNG)

 

And worse is expected, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week forecasting unemployment to hit about 10% as the local economy shrinks by 8% in the year to June.

 

Australia imposed strict social distancing measures in March to tackle the pandemic, closing its borders to all non-citizens and ordering people to stay home unless on essential business. Pubs, sports centres, libraries and other public buildings were closed while cafes and restaurants were restricted to takeaway services.

 

Many shops and other businesses not explicitly ordered to close did so anyway in response to a drop off in demand as people stayed home.

 

Officials have credited the lockdown measures with constraining the spread of the virus. Australia has recorded about 7,000 COVID-19 cases, including 98 deaths, significantly below the levels reported in North America and Europe.

 

New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, on Thursday reported just four new cases ahead of the lifting of some restrictions on Friday.

"The increase in activity does mean extra cases,"

 

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said as the state's 7 million residents prepared for the ability to leave their homes without a reason.

 

The federal government has a three-step plan to remove all social distancing restrictions by July, but the implementation is largely down to individual state and territory leaders.

 

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said earlier this week that easing restrictions would increase gross domestic product by A$9.4 billion ($6.10 billion) each month.

 

(Reporting by Colin Packham; editing by Jane Wardell)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-05-14

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[steven100]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

And worse is expected, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week forecasting unemployment to hit about 10% as the local economy shrinks by 8% in the year to June.

They are dreamers ....what about the real numbers and not just make believe. The RBA talks so much nonsense can anyone take them seriously. 

Unemployment will more likely be in the 14-16% this year and possibly higher .... imo

[Andrew65]

2 hours ago, steven100 said:

They are dreamers ....what about the real numbers and not just make believe. The RBA talks so much nonsense can anyone take them seriously. 

Unemployment will more likely be in the 14-16% this year and possibly higher .... imo

Many people have been vastly underestimating the economic cost of COVID19. It's as if they think (in the UK) that the government can afford to pay them to stop at home doing nothing forever. If extended until October the UK furlough scheme will cost the British government £100 billion, set against much lower economic activity & tax receipts.

 

[Henryford]

The massive over reaction to this flu will cause misery to millions around the world for years to come.

[pegman]

This is small time compared to what's about to hit them. There will be a recovery from the pandemic but the trade war they have started with China will see their economy clobbered for a decade or more. Like a kangaroo taking on a tiger. 

[simple1]

4 hours ago, steven100 said:

They are dreamers ....what about the real numbers and not just make believe. The RBA talks so much nonsense can anyone take them seriously. 

Unemployment will more likely be in the 14-16% this year and possibly higher .... imo

Morrison government implemented JobKeeper program for six moths managed by the ATO to reduce the number of unemployed, without which the unemployment numbers would be much higher; link below. Also published is a three month mitigation process to encourage an economic restart. Base JobSeeker allowance is insufficient to live on, so many also work part time in the cash economy which isn't captured in govt stats. So far Morrison has declined to raise the JobSeeker allowance after the Covic back to work commences - currently an additional $250 p.w. It's anticipated a much larger number of newly unemployed will be released in the June figures.

 

https://www.ato.gov.au/general/jobkeeper-payment/

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

The massive over reaction to this flu will cause misery to millions around the world for years to come.

only 600 peoe have it

16 bad

rest mild

time to open.up

[4MyEgo]

2 hours ago, Henryford said:

The massive over reaction to this flu will cause misery to millions around the world for years to come.

Yes it will, however, they still haven't got a handle on the full extent of this beast, if it was just a flu, which it's not, they wouldn't be reacting this way, so best to be cautious until they get a handle on it, so economies will suffer, people will suffer, but taking the measures they are taking means they are saving lives and keeping a lid on it, buying time until they can get some proven drugs into those who get infected, until a vaccine can be made, if not to far in the distant, but believe you me, if this "flu" as you call it was allowed to run it's course, it would be ugly on the human population.

[steven100]

11 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Morrison government implemented JobKeeper program for six moths managed by the ATO to reduce the number of unemployed, without which the unemployment numbers would be much higher; link below. Also published is a three month mitigation process to encourage an economic restart. Base JobSeeker allowance is insufficient to live on, so many also work part time in the cash economy which isn't captured in govt stats. So far Morrison has declined to raise the JobSeeker allowance after the Covic back to work commences - currently an additional $250 p.w. It's anticipated a much larger number of newly unemployed will be released in the June figures.

 

https://www.ato.gov.au/general/jobkeeper-payment/

yes ,  I really don't know why the government raised the newstart/jobseeker by $250 pw, Australia is an expensive place to live however I believe this was too much, and it may have been more beneficial to raise that program by a smaller amount but implement it permanently as part of the cost of living / inflation. Say an extra $150 pw or similar. As for the Jobkeeper, well if a company has no customers he's not going to just keep staff sitting on their butts all day... so I think as soon as that date is up .... thousands will be let go. imo

[4MyEgo]

I know one thing for certain, this is going to have an impact, e.g. domino effect, it will bring property prices down, say 20%-30% over the next few years, if not more, just depends on how quick they can get some proven drugs working, the ones already out there for other viruses, until a vaccine can be readily available, if ever.

 

Desperate times, people out of work, mortgages to pay, mortgage stress, I mean how long will banks allow their customers to not make repayments, they have shareholders to answer too, who have already taken a hit on the capital value of the stock, say 30%-40% down, and now dividends slashed 60%.

 

I certainly wouldn't be wanting to be holding property, too bad about the bank shares though, guess I'm stuck with them....lol

[UbonThani]

7 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Yes it will, however, they still haven't got a handle on the full extent of this beast, if it was just a flu, which it's not, they wouldn't be reacting this way, so best to be cautious until they get a handle on it, so economies will suffer, people will suffer, but taking the measures they are taking means they are saving lives and keeping a lid on it, buying time until they can get some proven drugs into those who get infected, until a vaccine can be made, if not to far in the distant, but believe you me, if this "flu" as you call it was allowed to run it's course, it would be ugly on the human population.

Sweden proved otherwise

 

[steven100]

27 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Morrison government implemented JobKeeper program for six moths managed by the ATO to reduce the number of unemployed, without which the unemployment numbers would be much higher; link below. Also published is a three month mitigation process to encourage an economic restart. Base JobSeeker allowance is insufficient to live on, so many also work part time in the cash economy which isn't captured in govt stats. So far Morrison has declined to raise the JobSeeker allowance after the Covic back to work commences - currently an additional $250 p.w. It's anticipated a much larger number of newly unemployed will be released in the June figures.

 

https://www.ato.gov.au/general/jobkeeper-payment/

MORE THAN SIX MILLION AUSSIE ARE RECEIVING $1500 A FORTNIGHT

• Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said more than six million Australians are currently receiving JobKeeper payments, a number he believes is lessening the impact on today's unemployment figures.
• Mr Frydenberg said approximately 1.6 million Australians were receiving JobSeeker or boosted Newstart payments.
• Scott Morrison said the JobKeeper program is costing Australian taxpayers more than $20 billion a month.
• The three-stage framework for reopening the Australian economy is estimated to return 850,000 Australians back to work.

[simple1]

5 minutes ago, steven100 said:

I really don't know why the government raised the newstart/jobseeker by $250 pw

Because at this time there is no work available, so using extremely low JobSeeker payment as an incentive to find work is inappropriate. In any case for many doesn't make sense to take on full time low paid work when in combination with part time cash in hand work you would be better off.

[4MyEgo]

17 minutes ago, steven100 said:

yes ,  I really don't know why the government raised the newstart/jobseeker by $250 pw, Australia is an expensive place to live however I believe this was too much, and it may have been more beneficial to raise that program by a smaller amount but implement it permanently as part of the cost of living / inflation. Say an extra $150 pw or similar. As for the Jobkeeper, well if a company has no customers he's not going to just keep staff sitting on their butts all day... so I think as soon as that date is up .... thousands will be let go. imo

My daughter who works part time and goes to Uni is getting $1,500 per fortnight, which is good, e.g. she gets to keep her part time job, but she told me the other day, she was only getting a grand a fortnight from her employer previously so she is getting 50% more, not that she's complaining, but that's throwing/wasting money, I mean people should be getting what they were getting if under $750 per week and those who were getting more, would get the max $750 per week, but ScoMo probably wants it to be what it is for the economies sake.

 

The above said, I am sure there is going to be a lot of false claims as my wife told me the other day that on one of her Australian/Thai forums some Thai girl was concerned as she was working for cash, was a single mum and was getting money from Centrelink, and then her boss was claiming the $750 per week for her. I said to my wife, that girl should be concerned, because I hope Centrelink nabs her for the single mothers pension, now that they can cross reference her as receiving an income from the jobkeeper program, meaning she is admitting that she is working, hope the ATO also gets involved and sorts her boss who is paying her cash.

 

Wonder why I left the country, sick and tired of supporting people who were rorting the system with the taxes I was paying, wouldn't mind if it was going to those who needed it, but that would mean I would be dreaming of that ever happening, also know of another bloke rorting the system, over it.

Edited May 14, 2020 by 4MyEgo

[4MyEgo]

8 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Sweden proved otherwise

 

Smaller population, higher death rates, e.g. Sweden 10 million Vs Australia 26 million.

 

Deaths in Sweden 3,460 Vs Australia 98

 

Sweden 0.0346% Vs Australia 0.000376923%

 

3,460 people dead Vs 98 dead, how much value do you put on your life ?

[simple1]

3 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

My daughter who works part time and goes to Uni is getting $1,500 per fortnight, which is good, e.g. she gets to keep her part time job, but she told me the other day, she was only getting a grand a fortnight from her employer previously so she is getting 50% more, not that she's complaining, but that's throwing/wasting money, I mean people should be getting what they were getting if under $750 per week and those who were getting more, would get the max $750 per week, but ScoMo probably wants it to be what it is for the economies sake.

 

As for those on newstart/jobseeker, well the government doesn't want them sitting around on their a$$es so they will keep the $250 pegged, even though they don't have jobs to give them, it's a vicious circle.

 

The above said, I am sure there is going to be a lot of false claims as my wife told me the other day that on one of her Australian/Thai forums some Thai girl was concerned as she was working for cash, was a single mum and was getting money from Centrelink, and then her boss was claiming the $750 per week for her. I said to my wife, that girl should be concerned, because I hope Centrelink nabs her for the single mothers pension, now that they can cross reference her as receiving an income from the jobkeeper program, meaning she is admitting that she is working, hope the ATO also gets involved and sorts her boss who is paying her cash.

 

Wonder why I left the country, sick and tired of supporting people who were rorting the system with the taxes I was paying, wouldn't mind if it was going to those who needed it, but that would mean I would be dreaming of that ever happening, also know of another bloke rorting the system, over it.

On the other side of the coin, from my personal knowledge, some employers obtain the JobKeeper payment for staff who don't understand Oz law e.g. Asian staff, then pocket the difference. e.g. employee was earning $300 p.w., employer keeps the additional $450 p.w. I offered to take it up with the ATO. but they are scared of losing their jobs so declined my offer.

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

Smaller population, higher death rates, e.g. Sweden 10 million Vs Australia 26 million.

 

Deaths in Sweden 3,460 Vs Australia 98

 

Sweden 0.0346% Vs Australia 0.000376923%

 

3,460 people dead Vs 98 dead, how much value do you put on your life ?

It wouldnt kill me.

[UbonThani]

3600 die in Sweden from the flu.

 

The lockdown in other countries just moved the numbers from flu to covid. Next season they move back. Same group of people that die.

 

 

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

It wouldnt kill me.

Your point being ?