Third phase of easing considered if no new Covid-19 cases in 15 days

[webfact]

Third phase of easing considered if no new Covid-19 cases in 15 days

By The Nation

 

Anutin Charnvirakul

 

The government is planning announce the third phase of easing restrictions if the number of new Covid-19 cases does not rise within the next two weeks, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Wednesday (May 20).

 

Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), said the total number of Covid-19 cases had risen by one to 3,034 and that there had been no Covid-19 related deaths over a 24-hour period.

 

Anutin believes that once businesses resume operation, people will adapt to the new normal such as maintaining social distancing, wearing face masks and washing hands frequently.

 

“Thailand’s situation has improved as can be seen from the number of infections and those who have fully recovered,” he said. “The ministry has earmarked more than Bt5 billion for the development of a vaccine and we have already stockpiled antiviral drugs.”

 

The minister said it was good that Songklanagarind Hospital was successful in treating Covid-19 patients with blood plasma until they fully recovered.

 

“However, further study is required because the Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute has tried to use this treatment and failed,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30388188

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-20

 

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[Thaiwrath]

4 minutes ago, webfact said:

the total number of Covid-19 cases had risen by one to 3,034 and that there had been no Covid-19 related deaths over a 24-hour period.

Yet millions have to wait ANOTHER 2 weeks to see if they can start to earn money again, to put food on the table for their families !

And the BTS and markets are packed with no social distancing, Bizarre !

[Puchaiyank]

You set the bar too high sir.  Why not use this same, most likely unattainable metric, for other viruses...other flus?

 

Give people some options...some directives...and let them go back to work.

[YetAnother]

32 minutes ago, webfact said:

Anutin believes that once businesses resume operation, people will adapt to the new normal

love listening to this guy, then i know what not to believe

[HashBrownHarry]

What does Phase 3 involve?

[steelepulse]

So if no new cases in 15 days, wouldn't that mean that the country is rid of covid?  I can't imagine a whole army of asymptomatic people marching around spreading things.

 

Also looking at worldwide numbers and comparing to seasonal flu, the covid numbers are right in line with seasonal flu numbers in regards to number of cases trending severely down.

[JCP108]

11 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:

What does Phase 3 involve?

Letting tourists from China travel freely into Thailand?

[JCP108]

14 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

So if no new cases in 15 days, wouldn't that mean that the country is rid of covid?  I can't imagine a whole army of asymptomatic people marching around spreading things.

 

Also looking at worldwide numbers and comparing to seasonal flu, the covid numbers are right in line with seasonal flu numbers.  

When I look at worldwide numbers and compare them to Thailand, seems like they don't compare at all. Thailand functionally got a total pass.

 

This article says there are around 14k influenza deaths in Thailand in an average year. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

 

 

 

So, that would be about 270/week. We are now 18+ weeks into the year. So, 18 x 270 = 4,860 deaths. 

 

So, 56 / 4,860 = Thailand having Covid 19 deaths 1.1% as much as flu deaths!

 

 

 

Seems much different outside of Thailand...

 

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-deaths-vs-flu-deaths.html

 

[DrJack54]

12 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

When I look at worldwide numbers and compare them to Thailand, seems like they don't compare at all. Thailand functionally got a total pass.

Thailand closed inbound flights April 4.

Australia think it was March 20.

NZ prior to that. 

Almost every measure Thailand has put into place has come after (copied) what some western countries did. 

They came up with a curfew. Actually mild compared to Oz where you had only 6 specific reasons to be outside your home.

Maximum gathering even in own home was 2 (excluding own house mates or family).

The one thing Thailand came up with was booze ban. Stupid in the extreme.

They dodged a bullet somehow. Please don't put it down to unique/clever management.

[JCP108]

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Thailand closed inbound flights April 4.

Australia think it was March 20.

NZ prior to that. 

Almost every measure Thailand has put into place has come after (copied) what some western countries did. 

They came up with a curfew. Actually mild compared to Oz where you had only 6 specific reasons to be outside your home.

Maximum gathering even in own home was 2 (excluding own house mates or family.

The one thing Thailand came up with was booze ban.

They dodged a bullet somehow. Please done put it down to unique management.

It's the somtam.

[DrJack54]

17 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Letting tourists from China travel freely into Thailand?

Exactly. 

Just a guess but thinking next step will involve opening borders/airports to folk from  designated "safe countries"/states

That list will initially consist of China, Sth Korea, Taiwan, HK, Japan.

USA along with many others, no invitation.

[ianezy0]

Well done Thailand.

Wouldn’t want to be in Europe or USA at the moment.

[Curt1591]

16 minutes ago, ianezy0 said:

Well done Thailand.

Wouldn’t want to be in Europe or USA at the moment.

Fear is a terrible thing to waste. Just saw a meme pointing out the "death rate" at 3%. It then went on to say that if there was a bowl of 100 skittles, and 3 were deadly, would you eat any?
 

The problem is that they are using the percentage of people who's death was "attributed" to COVID and used confirmed cases as the base. The reality is that there is over 330,000,000 people in the USA. If we divide the number of deaths "attributed" to COVID by the population, we are looking at less than .03 percent. Inother words, the bowl should have 10,000 skittles!
 

There are many thing we all face, daily, that put us at a higher death risk. 

-------------
 

Worldwide, it seems this thing has come, peaked and is waning. It will return next year, just like most seasonal diseases. Hopefully, healthcare systems will be prepared, vaccines will be available and it will not become a big scary monster. 

The big scare was that healthcare providers are prepared the annual flu epidemic. 

But then, , COVID rolls into town. They have no vaccine and no established treatment. So, the healthcare industry panics. 
 

They have weathered the storm - treatments have been established and vaccines are on the way.
 

The season is over. Time to get back with our lives. 

[ukrules]

31 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

They dodged a bullet somehow.

I'm not convinced they did. It would seem to be impossible. For sure this will be investigated.

 

My current theory is that Thailand had a massive epidemic of 'cold' which was an earlier less harmful and therefore less noticeable strain of COVID.

 

Every week I'm reading new articles about this disease and they stretch further back in time. They're talking about mid November last year now and that was in France.

 

How many people arrived in Thailand from Wuhan since the beginning of November last year? That's assuming we continue to regard Wuhan, China as the origin.

[Traubert]

22 minutes ago, Curt1591 said:

They have weathered the storm - treatments have been established and vaccines are on the way.
 

The season is over. Time to get back with our lives. 

What treatments?

[CGW]

19 minutes ago, Curt1591 said:

The season is over. Time to get back with our lives. 

Exactly it's achieved what it was meant too, agenda 21 and agenda 2030, many items ticked off the "to do" list, small and medium business are ruined, "Big Corp" will prosper, all the Bilderberg, Club of Rome, Tri-lateral commission and all the other control group meeting's were not in vain, they have achieved their objective without a shot being fired, welcome to ""Prison Planet"  ????

[bodga]

1 hour ago, HashBrownHarry said:

What does Phase 3 involve?

and where do they actually end? phase 4000000299999999?

[bkk6060]

50 minutes ago, ianezy0 said:

Wouldn’t want to be in Europe or USA at the moment.

Yes.

They are documented cesspools of infections.

Should be last on the list allowed here.

[Anton9]

10 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Yes.

They are documented cesspools of infections.

Should be last on the list allowed here.

Yes, the flu is so scary.

[Ian Nagle]

1 hour ago, ianezy0 said:

Well done Thailand.

Wouldn’t want to be in Europe or USA at the moment.

I wouldn't want to be in America with Agent Orange and his disinformation. 

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, YetAnother said:

love listening to this guy, then i know what not to believe

that's 2 of us

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Anutin believes that once businesses resume operation, people will adapt to the new normal such as maintaining social distancing, wearing face masks and washing hands frequently.

he does know how to make us laugh, besides him and his gang who else would believe that

[Curt1591]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

What treatments?

There are many treatments being used. Check with the close to 2,000,000 recovered. That's close to half the total positives. And, many of the positives weren't even hospitalized - no inpatient treatment required.

The panic really only exists in the media and government. The doctors in my neighborhood are all on semi-furlough. 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

2 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Also looking at worldwide numbers and comparing to seasonal flu, the covid numbers are right in line with seasonal flu numbers in regards to number of cases trending severely down.

Yes, I know it's a shocking concept that this coronavirus will act like all other coronaviruses and slow down in spring and summer. SARS did the exact same thing. Actual experts were saying months ago that it will slow down in May. It's almost as-if governments don't want to listen....

 

As far as Thailand goes, simply too hot for massive spread. That's it. No brilliant management or vigilant contact tracing - just luck and the weather.

[JCP108]

16 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Yes, I know it's a shocking concept that this coronavirus will act like all other coronaviruses and slow down in spring and summer. SARS did the exact same thing. Actual experts were saying months ago that it will slow down in May. It's almost as-if governments don't want to listen....

 

As far as Thailand goes, simply too hot for massive spread. That's it. No brilliant management or vigilant contact tracing - just luck and the weather.

Some hot countries confound that too hot theory (see India, Pakistan, Iran, and Brazil, for example). I think it's the somtam and Thai discipline. 

[phantomfiddler]

1 hour ago, Curt1591 said:

Fear is a terrible thing to waste. Just saw a meme pointing out the "death rate" at 3%. It then went on to say that if there was a bowl of 100 skittles, and 3 were deadly, would you eat any?
 

The problem is that they are using the percentage of people who's death was "attributed" to COVID and used confirmed cases as the base. The reality is that there is over 330,000,000 people in the USA. If we divide the number of deaths "attributed" to COVID by the population, we are looking at less than .03 percent. Inother words, the bowl should have 10,000 skittles!
 

There are many thing we all face, daily, that put us at a higher death risk. 

-------------
 

Worldwide, it seems this thing has come, peaked and is waning. It will return next year, just like most seasonal diseases. Hopefully, healthcare systems will be prepared, vaccines will be available and it will not become a big scary monster. 

The big scare was that healthcare providers are prepared the annual flu epidemic. 

But then, , COVID rolls into town. They have no vaccine and no established treatment. So, the healthcare industry panics. 
 

They have weathered the storm - treatments have been established and vaccines are on the way.
 

The season is over. Time to get back with our lives. 

Spot on, Curtis ! There have been a lot of misleading statistics, all designed to cause panic.

[rabang]

2 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

Well done Thailand.

Wouldn’t want to be in Europe or USA at the moment.

I am in Europe and think it is better with fewer restrictions here in my country than in Thailand. But individual countries obviously differ a lot.

[ripstanley]

"Anutin believes that once businesses resume operation, people will adapt to the new normal such as maintaining social distancing, wearing face masks and washing hands frequently."

 

What a load of garbage. I was inside a DIY shop in Phayao on Monday and there is no social distancing. I was also in Makro and no social distancing. Thais do not understand social distancing. If Anutin would pull his head out of his rectum then there may be some sensible comments.

 

[Thunder26]

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Yes, I know it's a shocking concept that this coronavirus will act like all other coronaviruses and slow down in spring and summer. SARS did the exact same thing. Actual experts were saying months ago that it will slow down in May. It's almost as-if governments don't want to listen....

 

As far as Thailand goes, simply too hot for massive spread. That's it. No brilliant management or vigilant contact tracing - just luck and the weather.

I would add wearing masks and the culture of not touching each other while greeting. That plays a role too in the low spread of the virus in Thailand.

[SantiSuk]

That plus the fact that Thailand is largely a rural and smaller town nation compared with the larger European countries and the US.