Not good news for herd immunity or vaccine hope.

[AKJeff]

I will let the article speak for itself but I think this virus maybe around a long time.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/antibody-testing-suggests-immune-response-post-covid-is-very-variable/

 

I don't want this to happen but can you imagine a world divided into covid19 free countries and countries that are free from the disease.   Where people never go between the two divisions?  

 

This is far from certain just an interesting short article.

[mommysboy]

The article suggests there is in fact a great deal of immunity, and appears entirely in line with what one would expect.  Nothing is 100%.

[tlandtday]

I wouldn't bet money on a vaccine particularly since the virus has been mutating.  I have said all along this is too contagious to be controlled besides living inside separate caves.  There will be many waves.

[AKJeff]

17 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

The article suggests there is in fact a great deal of immunity, and appears entirely in line with what one would expect.  Nothing is 100%.

I hope you are right.   I could be misreading it.  I was thinking that since the " levels of neutralizing antibodies varied by over 40,000 fold" and in line with the severity of the infection, that it is less likely that asymptomatic people will acquire enough antibodies.  Also making it more difficult for a vaccine to work.  

 

But I could be reading it all wrong.  The article does say that 80-90 percent of the people had some level of antibodies though.  The question is what level is needed to prevent a person from contracting the disease a second time?

[tlandtday]

2 minutes ago, AKJeff said:

I hope you are right.   I could be misreading it.  I was thinking that since the " levels of neutralizing antibodies varied by over 40,000 fold" and in line with the severity of the infection, that it is less likely that asymptomatic people will acquire enough antibodies.  Also making it more difficult for a vaccine to work.  

 

But I could be reading it all wrong.  The article does say that 80-90 percent of the people had some level of antibodies though.  The question is what level is needed to prevent a person from contracting the disease a second time?

What may be possibly worse is that they have found that the "markers" used by the body to combat disease with t cells are adversely affected making the immune system effectively blind to harm. 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, tlandtday said:

I wouldn't bet money on a vaccine particularly since the virus has been mutating.  I have said all along this is too contagious to be controlled besides living inside separate caves.  There will be many waves.

The general axiom is that one can't be infected with the same strain twice, or if you are it doesn't last long enough to take hold.  There's no reason to believe covid19 is any different.  As i said before, nothing is 100%, but even 80% would be enough to foster herd immunity.  If you take the worst possible scenarios on various aspects and assume they'll happen no matter how small the likelihood, then of course anything is possible.

 

I believe the flu vaccine varies in its effectiveness, nevertheless it's regarded as having the ability to prevent epidemics and serious illness.  It may be a vaccine for the coronavirus isn't coming any time soon, however convalescent therapy is already happening in the UK and other countries, using antibody treatment.  The advantage of this treatment is it's nothing new, and the soft infrastructure is already in place in most countries.

 

[vermin on arrival]

5 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The article suggests there is in fact a great deal of immunity, and appears entirely in line with what one would expect.  Nothing is 100%.

Yes, and some scientists believe that certain people fight off the disease without producing antibodies. Then there is the issue of cross immunity based on other coronavirus infections. I think the likelihood of herd immunity from less than the conventional wisdom of 80% infection rates to be much more likely than people believe.