Fauci warns spread of COVID-19 'could get very bad', says no guarantee of vaccine

[7fish]

On 7/1/2020 at 2:10 AM, Skallywag said:

Notice nowhere in this article do they mention death rates.  Yes "cases" are rising

Not just that article, there is a general move throughout the media to replace the word deaths with cases, maybe the number of people dying isn't impressive enough to maintain the fear

[7fish]

On 7/3/2020 at 4:50 PM, yuyiinthesky said:

Scientists tracking the coronavirus genome report that, unlike other viruses such as the flu, this coronavirus doesn't change quickly, which means mutations are unlikely to slow the development of a vaccine.

This virus will wear a frilly dress and dance the salsa if it serves their interest

[LomSak27]

10 hours ago, Chiphigh said:

On 7/5/2020 at 10:33 AM, LomSak27 said:

That is the real reason Trump went full metal cultural war on the 4th. AS of last weekend he has tossed in the towel on the coronavirus. Aides report he  just 'isn't interested''. That was what June 27/28 when you had those golfing pics up on the media. Last week, into this week, wuhan is surging into "out of control" zone. I feel sorry for all those Beulah's and Jethro's down in Elvis country, but I also feel they brought a lot of this on themselves. God does not help the willfully ignorant.

Death rates are falling for weeks now. Fatality rates are also falling. 

 

But keep up that outrage and irrational fear. 

 

The dempanic that was designed to crush the economy and millions of people's livelihood almost worked 

 

Rainy morning here. Coffee up, Reality time! As the pandemic surges into out of control mode. Arizona is in the news. 

 

Current hospitalizations – 11 days in a row
ICU beds -  6 days in a row
Ventilators in use – 3 days in a row
Deaths 117 people die form Wuhan 

 

“days in a row”, means a new record was set surpassing the previous high for each of those days. Arizona officials are now stating they have between 5 days and two weeks before they do not have equipment & beds to treat the number of cases coming in. At that point decisions will have to be made regarding what cases can be treated and what can’t. Can you say Death Panels ... I knew you could.  

On an international note The Brazilian president tested positive. So there is hope.

Trump is doubling down, pulling out of WHO and again blaming DR Fauci. He threw in the towel a couple weeks back. Now cultural wars and spin the news to distract the people, but the virus? Can’t distract that. ????.

Rain has stopped, might get my morning walk in after all. Adios 

[johnpetersen]

And now for some discouraging news:

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

 

• A major new study in one of Europe's worst affected countries for the coronavirus finds no evidence of widespread immunity to the virus developing.
• Just 5% of Spaniards were detected to have antibodies to the virus.
• Fourteen percent of people who previously tested positive for antibodies tested negative just weeks later

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, johnpetersen said:

And now for some discouraging news:

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

 

• A major new study in one of Europe's worst affected countries for the coronavirus finds no evidence of widespread immunity to the virus developing.
• Just 5% of Spaniards were detected to have antibodies to the virus.
• Fourteen percent of people who previously tested positive for antibodies tested negative just weeks later

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-study-herd-immunity-unachievable-spain-2020-7

 However loss of circulating antibodies does nto mean there is no immunity.

 

The immune response is complex and has many components of which specific antibodies are but one.  Even in the absence of specific antibodies, the body's T cells may"remember"  the virus and be rpimed to immediately attack it when next encountered.

 

in fact, it appears that up to 40% of people in some parts of the world already have thsi repsonse, perghaps from prior infection with a different corona virus, which may help explain why some people get it and some don't.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-00228-1

[johnpetersen]

9 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 However loss of circulating antibodies does nto mean there is no immunity.

 

The immune response is complex and has many components of which specific antibodies are but one.  Even in the absence of specific antibodies, the body's T cells may"remember"  the virus and be rpimed to immediately attack it when next encountered.

 

in fact, it appears that up to 40% of people in some parts of the world already have thsi repsonse, perghaps from prior infection with a different corona virus, which may help explain why some people get it and some don't.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-00228-1

Thanks for the encouragement. 

[heybruce]

12 hours ago, 7fish said:

Not just that article, there is a general move throughout the media to replace the word deaths with cases, maybe the number of people dying isn't impressive enough to maintain the fear

Or maybe there is a surge in cases first and the surge in deaths will come later.  You don't catch the virus and immediately die.

[johnpetersen]

13 hours ago, 7fish said:

Not just that article, there is a general move throughout the media to replace the word deaths with cases, maybe the number of people dying isn't impressive enough to maintain the fear

There's about a 3 week lag between onset of illness and death. Here's a couple of charts for Texas. The first showing number of new cases, the second showing deaths.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

Note the lag time between cases and deaths.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by johnpetersen

[Traubert]

On 7/4/2020 at 2:28 AM, yuyiinthesky said:

You can claim whatever you want, knowing that you‘re living in China we know what you cannot say, what you have to say, and that most real news are not accessible for you.

I say what I want, as does everybody else. Take a look on Weibo it'll make your hair stand on end.

 

We have VPNs same as Thailand does. Clearly you have never been near China so don't tell me how it is.

[winslowsjardine]

https://twitter.com/TBPInvictus/status/1281256803788107776

 

[yuyiinthesky]

On 7/8/2020 at 1:48 PM, Traubert said:

We have VPNs same as Thailand does. Clearly you have never been near China so don't tell me how it is.

Sorry to disappoint you once again, but I have been not only very near, but even „in“ China. And I don‘t mean Taiwan, the other, independent, Chinese country, but my feet touched CCP controlled soil.

If you use a VPN in China, please be careful. Some tips:

 

Quote

So, here are the essential points of using a VPN in China without breaking the law:

• Use a VPN with explicit authorization from the Chinese government. Once you shortlist the VPNs you’re interested in, make sure to contact them and ask about their relationship with Chinese authorities (whether they’re approved or not).
• Use VPNs only for sanctioned purposes, such as data security or letting your field workers access Intranet features. Once again, keep in mind that you must stay away from any online criminal activities. Using a VPN won’t protect you if you break any laws, in China or elsewhere in the world.

Source: https://www.technadu.com/how-to-use-vpns-in-china-without-breaking-the-law/18492/

[yuyiinthesky]

6 hours ago, winslowsjardine said:

https://twitter.com/TBPInvictus/status/1281256803788107776

 

This is not showing the number of infected persons, which is most probably magnitudes higher.

Calling it cases is also misleading, as the very big majority is asymptotic.

Better call that graph the positive PCR tests (and hope it was using the more specific tests, to avoid too many false positives or negatives.

 

As the target of this graph is political, I understand that a bigger growth of the curve is desired. Tip: that easy to achieve, just triple the testing, you will get more positive tests, the curve will look more dramatic, and the guy it tries to blame will look even more negative.

 

Just don’t claim it shows the real development of infections. It could give a hint if you overlay the graph with the number of tests. But better don‘t try, the resulting curve might look less dramatic.

[candide]

28 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

This is not showing the number of infected persons, which is most probably magnitudes higher.

Calling it cases is also misleading, as the very big majority is asymptotic.

Better call that graph the positive PCR tests (and hope it was using the more specific tests, to avoid too many false positives or negatives.

 

As the target of this graph is political, I understand that a bigger growth of the curve is desired. Tip: that easy to achieve, just triple the testing, you will get more positive tests, the curve will look more dramatic, and the guy it tries to blame will look even more negative.

 

Just don’t claim it shows the real development of infections. It could give a hint if you overlay the graph with the number of tests. But better don‘t try, the resulting curve might look less dramatic.

So why don't you do it in order to support your claim?

[dundee48]

2 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

This is not showing the number of infected persons, which is most probably magnitudes higher.

Calling it cases is also misleading, as the very big majority is asymptotic.

Better call that graph the positive PCR tests (and hope it was using the more specific tests, to avoid too many false positives or negatives.

 

As the target of this graph is political, I understand that a bigger growth of the curve is desired. Tip: that easy to achieve, just triple the testing, you will get more positive tests, the curve will look more dramatic, and the guy it tries to blame will look even more negative.

 

Just don’t claim it shows the real development of infections. It could give a hint if you overlay the graph with the number of tests. But better don‘t try, the resulting curve might look less dramatic.

Very good analysis,but don`t expect the liberals to accept it.This is how it goes on Thaivisa,liberals accept any old claptrap that a fellow liberal puts forward but demand you show everything to satisfy them,but don`t dare link to a right wing website as that is not acceptable,it must be a left wing site(cnn,nyt,washington post,guardian).Liberals are so funny.

[winslowsjardine]

3 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

This is not showing the number of infected persons, which is most probably magnitudes higher.

Calling it cases is also misleading, as the very big majority is asymptotic.

Better call that graph the positive PCR tests (and hope it was using the more specific tests, to avoid too many false positives or negatives.

 

As the target of this graph is political, I understand that a bigger growth of the curve is desired. Tip: that easy to achieve, just triple the testing, you will get more positive tests, the curve will look more dramatic, and the guy it tries to blame will look even more negative.

 

Just don’t claim it shows the real development of infections. It could give a hint if you overlay the graph with the number of tests. But better don‘t try, the resulting curve might look less dramatic.

But isn't it true that the rate of infections, known as positivity, is also rising? And that hospitalizations are increasing?

[simple1]

2 hours ago, dundee48 said:

Very good analysis,but don`t expect the liberals to accept it.This is how it goes on Thaivisa,liberals accept any old claptrap that a fellow liberal puts forward but demand you show everything to satisfy them,but don`t dare link to a right wing website as that is not acceptable,it must be a left wing site(cnn,nyt,washington post,guardian).Liberals are so funny.

Other than opinion pieces, the media you reference report of the news and if they are in error with a news report it is rectified, unlike the sources you more than likely access. it is very clear the trump administration has made a complete mess of mitigating the spread of Covid by politicising the response as demonstrated by the current huge spike in infections - in fact the highest daily increase than any other country. As a side comment the US has roughly 450 deaths from Covid per one million of population, whereas Australia has 4 per million - excellent mitigation strategy by trump - not.

[steelepulse]

11 hours ago, winslowsjardine said:

https://twitter.com/TBPInvictus/status/1281256803788107776

 

I'm sure I could find  a nice graph to show that the curve has gone down severely on the death rate.  Fact of the matter it has.  Now primarily younger people are getting covid, and IF they are healthy, there's the smallest of small chances they will have major symptoms.  However many ( 75% actually) are either considered obese or overweight.  Along with this condition, all the underlying co morbidities pop up.  This is the reason hospitalizations are on the rise.  Overall ifr under 70 years of age is .04%  Is that worth all the fear and scare mongering?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

>>Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters and the few studies done in locations with more modest death burden also suggested lower infection fatality rates.

 

Looking over in Europe, deaths above normal are back to normal.  Of course the fear and gloom lot would say that that is Europe, and not the US.  Why is everyone so quiet on how Europe is doing now? Everyone I talk to there says they are living their life like they did last year and now that the facts are in, they have nothing to fear as they aren't elderly, nor are they obese with underlying issues.

 

 

[stevenl]

36 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

I'm sure I could find  a nice graph to show that the curve has gone down severely on the death rate.  Fact of the matter it has.  Now primarily younger people are getting covid, and IF they are healthy, there's the smallest of small chances they will have major symptoms.  However many ( 75% actually) are either considered obese or overweight.  Along with this condition, all the underlying co morbidities pop up.  This is the reason hospitalizations are on the rise.  Overall ifr under 70 years of age is .04%  Is that worth all the fear and scare mongering?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

 

>>Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters and the few studies done in locations with more modest death burden also suggested lower infection fatality rates.

 

Looking over in Europe, deaths above normal are back to normal.  Of course the fear and gloom lot would say that that is Europe, and not the US.  Why is everyone so quiet on how Europe is doing now? Everyone I talk to there says they are living their life like they did last year and now that the facts are in, they have nothing to fear as they aren't elderly, nor are they obese with underlying issues.

 

 

Nobody is quiet on Europe. It is really easy (most of) Europe contained it, but authorities still fear a second wave. The US did not contain it, so the comparisons to Europe 'why can't we open schools, they can' are simply stupid.

[mtls2005]

Jan. 31, 2020  Florida man tells country the virus is "very well under control". At eh time there were five (5) confirmed cases.

 

 

[mtls2005]

It looks like Friday will be another record new case day. Somewhere north of 70,000 new cases. Florida leading the way.

 

Some projections say ~208,000 deaths by Nov. 1.

 

 

[yuyiinthesky]

8 hours ago, candide said:

So why don't you do it in order to support your claim?

That‘s a good idea!

 

However the real question is why the ones making such graphs don‘t do it correctly in the first place.

 

This has nothing to do with what candidate you support, just don‘t be so obviously misleading. Otherwise you remind me of Churchill: “I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself”!

 

(You heard of Winston Churchill, I hope!)

Edited July 11, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

That‘s a good idea!

 

However the real question is why the ones making such graphs don‘t do it correctly in the first place.

 

This has nothing to do with what candidate you support, just don‘t be so obviously misleading. Otherwise you remind me of Churchill: “I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself”!

 

(You heard of Winston Churchill, I hope!)

Why don't you find credible sources to support your claim that "the ones making such graphs don‘t do it correctly in the first place"? 

 

Until you do that, your are contesting referenced data with your own unreferenced speculation.

Edited July 11, 2020 by heybruce

[Phoenix Rising]

2 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

That‘s a good idea!

 

However the real question is why the ones making such graphs don‘t do it correctly in the first place.

 

This has nothing to do with what candidate you support, just don‘t be so obviously misleading. Otherwise you remind me of Churchill: “I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself”!

 

(You heard of Winston Churchill, I hope!)

Churchill also said;

 

“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened.”

...and...

“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

 

Oh, how right he was.

 

 

PS. If you're gonna be snarky you should really get the grammar right or else you'll look like a complete tool.

[candide]

 

5 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

That‘s a good idea!

 

However the real question is why the ones making such graphs don‘t do it correctly in the first place.

 

This has nothing to do with what candidate you support, just don‘t be so obviously misleading. Otherwise you remind me of Churchill: “I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself”!

 

(You heard of Winston Churchill, I hope!)

I found it. Your hypothesis is not supported.

 

 

Edited July 11, 2020 by candide

[steelepulse]

56 minutes ago, candide said:

 

I found it. Your hypothesis is not supported.

 

 

Also of note.

 

 
According to John's Hopkins from the beginning of testing (around mid-Feb) to June 1st there were 20,041,656 tests conducted, or an average of 189,702 per day. Since June 1st, there have been 20,104,036 tests conducted, or an average of 515,488 per day. 
In other words, the US is doing three times the testing (and it's rising every day). They are also getting 1.58 times the positive results from it's pre-June height (39, 096 April 24 and 61,848 today). 300% testing, 150% positive results. 
Through the first 20 million tests, there were 109,083 fatalities. Through the 2nd 20 million tests, there have been 26, 711. 
 

[jcsmith]

On 7/1/2020 at 5:21 AM, Mama Noodle said:

Not a single mention of the massive protest gatherings and riots going on over the last few weeks seeding and super spreading the virus. 

I'm sure that protests contributed to this spike. As did the reopening in many states, and as did the rallies where Trump's people ignored social distancing and people were being shamed for wearing masks. 

 

I think any time you have a large mass of people together you are going to run the risk of spread. There are other considerations though. The protests being outdoors, mostly in the day time, and with almost everybody wearing masks helps mitigate some of that risk. As does the fact that them being out there pretty much kept everyone else other than police out of those areas, and with others at home it reduced their risks. But I think it's safe to say that the protests had some effect. That doesn't explain the spike everyplace though. The protests began on May 26th. We didn't see a noticeable Covid spike until June 19th. 

[Bkk Brian]

U.S. sending 580 military medical personnel to Texas to assist with taking care of COVID-19 patients at civilian hospitals - ABC

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 7/11/2020 at 1:16 AM, yuyiinthesky said:

As the target of this graph is political, I understand that a bigger growth of the curve is desired. Tip: that easy to achieve, just triple the testing, you will get more positive tests, the curve will look more dramatic, and the guy it tries to blame will look even more negative.

If you just increase the testing and the virus is not more widespread, you will see an increase in both positive and negative results in equal measure. However that's not what is happening. An increasing percentage of those being tested are showing up positive. Hospitalizations are also increasing. Both those measures show that the virus is actually on the increase.

[mtls2005]

Arizona, California and Florida getting hammered (new cases).

 

Florida set a new record with ~ 15,300 new cases.

 

On May 20, 2020 Florida Governor was quite pleased with himself:

 

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by mtls2005

[4reaL]

5 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Arizona, California and Florida getting hammered (new cases).

 

Florida set a new record with ~ 15,300 new cases.

 

On May 20, 2020 Florida Governor was quite pleased with himself:

 

 

 

He'd get robbed in Bklyn.